Your end of season thoughts

[Billy62]

     So this season was in a nutshell.....bittersweet. I thought they would be better than most thought, and had them picked for in between 84-87 wins. I thought they would be in contention for a playoff spot, but just miss out. Prior to the last three weeks of the season, it looked like they would even surpass my higher number and actually make the playoffs. But, just like "69" this team pulled up really lame at the finish line. It left the fan with a bad taste in his/her mouth. Excited to see an above .500 Cub team, but dejected by the plummet down the stretch. How does this get fixed? I think it starts at the top. I like David Ross, he is amiable, funny, and has good charisma. But, is he who we need to lead a competitive team? Granted, he was over the .500 mark for the first time in his managerial career. He does not come across as a loser, but as a non-winner as a manager......there is a difference. The bullpen should be a major concern. I think down the stretch, they failed the team most of all. At this level, throwing strikes and getting outs should have been way less problematic as it was. Offensively, I felt that they had played fairly decent, but defensively, the stellar play they had displayed through most of the season seemed to desert them at the final push. There are going to be roster changes for sure in 2024. I have no crystal ball as to what will develop. I think the team should make every effort to retain Cody Bellinger. I think we got to see firsthand of who he really is and can expect to see more of that down the road. I think the time has arrived for the departure of Patrick Wisdom. He is a decent player with some thunder in his bat. Just too much swing and miss for a starting roster spot. Unless he would be willing to accept a bench role. I know he is still under contract but Smyly really came apart in the second half. Perhaps the team could deal him for some youth. Madrigal is a wildcard, when he is healthy enough to play he can make a difference, but he is often injured and misses quite a bit of playing time. Likewise, I think Stroman is expendable, and I am on the fence with Hendricks. Taillon struggled early in the season, but he finished pretty strong. Then there is the youngsters. I think they make or break next years team. Canario was impressive, but the season showed that PCA and a couple others still might need a little more seasoning. Additionally, Candelario should be retainable at not to steep a price. Then comes the wanted additions. The Christmas wish list is full. A dominant starting pitcher, a bonified big stick power hitter (30-35 hr), and some dependable arms in the bullpen......please Santa, I have been a good boy! 🙂

[squally1313]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Guys like Encarnacion are the exception, not the typical case.  You don't make decisions based on exceptions and wishful thinking, you make them based on the data of what is most likely to occur.

The point is even great position players typically decline after age 32, and many times steeply.  Any GM would be a fool to want to pay a position player past age 32 at salaries based on their performance in their late 20's..  Sometimes you do have to pay a very good player past their early 30's in order to sign them, but I guarantee you Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter.  Hoyer signed Happ and Suzuki through their prime years and these are good contracts.  Contracts like Trea Turner, Bogaerts, Judge etc are bad contracts and usually end up a big money pit for teams.

My man, Tim posted 25 names and I did the work on the first 20, and it ended up that like 15 of them were worth signing to a 5 year deal from 30-34. And that doesn't include Encarnacion. Just go to the last page.

And even beyond that, this is just how contracts work. 'I guarantee Hoyer would love for Swanson's contract to be a few years shorter'. Yeah, ideally you just sign one year deals for everyone and reassess at the end of the year. The Cubs tell Swanson they aren't going beyond 5 years and guess what, we don't have a shortstop who put up 5 WAR this year. Players want security through their 30s and if they are good players someone is going to give it to them. You want elite free agents, you kinda need to play the game. 

[Tim]

After a good 10 or so minutes of thought, here's my preferred offseason (due to change many times):

• Trade for Soto, start training him to play 1B immediately
• Sign Yamamoto
• Pick up Yan's option
• If Stroman opts in, let Hendricks walk
• If Stroman opts out, see if Hendricks would take a two year deal at lower cost
• Sign 2-3 actual, living, breathing relievers with their arms still attached firmly
• If there's still money in the budget, re-sign Bellinger
• Have Morel take infield practice at 3B every day during the offseason

That gives:

• C - Gomes / Amaya
• 1B - Soto
• 2B - Hoerner
• SS - Dansby
• 3B - Morel / Madrigal
• LF - Happ
• CF - Bellinger / Rookies
• RF - Seiya
• DH - rotating
• SP1 - Yamamoto
• SP2 - Steele
• SP3 - Taillon
• SP4 - Stroman / Hendricks
• SP5 - Assad / Wicks / Brown / Horton / Smyly
• relievers

[17 Seconds]

13 hours ago, Y2J said:

Funny how many are flip flopping their stance on Bellinger from the trade deadline thread. 😄

how so?

[Cuzi]

23 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Not the first time I’ve seen this as Plan A and it’s like…what? Trade for a player who isn’t even available, move him to a new position, throw The Future at him…and that’s Plan A? I get that Soto is great, you’d pay him, and many jump when told to jump, but these humans aren’t actually toys! KISS! 

Seems like alot of hoops to jump through just to say you didn’t do something inefficient like pay Ohtani 

I would bet the Padres will be listening on offers for Soto. He's got 1 year left. They failed at making a juggernaut offense. Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts are going absolutely no where unless they do what the Rockies did and pay someone to take them.

However, I agree that trading for Soto, paying him, and then immediately cutting his value in half by sticking him at 1B is a monumentally stupid idea. If you trade for Soto and then pay him, he is playing LF. Happ becomes your DH and he's gone in 3 years.

[17 Seconds]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

 

However, I agree that trading for Soto, paying him, and then immediately cutting his value in half by sticking him at 1B is a monumentally stupid idea. If you trade for Soto and then pay him, he is playing LF. Happ becomes your DH and he's gone in 3 years.

why move happ to DH instead of soto? happ is the better defender, you will lose even more value that way

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I would bet the Padres will be listening on offers for Soto. He's got 1 year left. They failed at making a juggernaut offense. Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts are going absolutely no where unless they do what the Rockies did and pay someone to take them.

However, I agree that trading for Soto, paying him, and then immediately cutting his value in half by sticking him at 1B is a monumentally stupid idea. If you trade for Soto and then pay him, he is playing LF. Happ becomes your DH and he's gone in 3 years.

He's bad defensively in the OF. I don't think he loses any value at all by shifting to 1B if he can be a neutral defender. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

He's bad defensively in the OF. I don't think he loses any value at all by shifting to 1B if he can be a neutral defender. 

Do you not understand how money is allocated across the diamond by positional value?

I dont care if he is bad in the OF. No one is paying Soto $400M to play 1B/DH. This isn't MLB The Show. Soto will not be setting a record 1B contract by $240M.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

After a good 10 or so minutes of thought, here's my preferred offseason (due to change many times):

• Trade for Soto, start training him to play 1B immediately
• Sign Yamamoto
• Pick up Yan's option
• If Stroman opts in, let Hendricks walk
• If Stroman opts out, see if Hendricks would take a two year deal at lower cost
• Sign 2-3 actual, living, breathing relievers with their arms still attached firmly
• If there's still money in the budget, re-sign Bellinger
• Have Morel take infield practice at 3B every day during the offseason

That gives:

• C - Gomes / Amaya
• 1B - Soto
• 2B - Hoerner
• SS - Dansby
• 3B - Morel / Madrigal
• LF - Happ
• CF - Bellinger / Rookies
• RF - Seiya
• DH - rotating
• SP1 - Yamamoto
• SP2 - Steele
• SP3 - Taillon
• SP4 - Stroman / Hendricks
• SP5 - Assad / Wicks / Brown / Horton / Smyly
• relievers

Unfortunately I believe Alonso is much more likely than Soto and I'm not willing to let 3B be covered by Wisdom/Madrigal all year if the Morel experiment fails. With that said, I think minus Soto, this is what we're pretty likely to see. 

[17 Seconds]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do you not understand how money is allocated across the diamond by positional value?

I dont care if he is bad in the OF. No one is paying Soto $400M to play 1B/DH.

i would pay close to that. you're overestimating how much value a bad corner OF loses by switching to 1b

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

i would pay close to that. you're overestimating how much value a bad corner OF loses by switching to 1b

I hate Hoyer, but I'll take him any day over someone willing to dish out $400M to a 1B/DH. Name your number one GM in baseball and he hasn't come close to offering half of that money to that position.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[17 Seconds]

Just now, Cuzi said:

I hate Hoyer, but I'll take him any day over someone willing to dish out $400M to a 1B/DH.

he's 24 with a career .400 wOBA and more walks than stikeouts (for his career!). i'd do that so fast

[Cuzi]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

he's 24 with a career .400 wOBA and more walks than stikeouts (for his career!). i'd do that so fast

Good for you. Probably have a dynasty roster in MLB The Show. It will never happen in real life. Guarantee Soto wont see 1B/DH until 6+ years into his contract.

[17 Seconds]

Just now, Cuzi said:

Good for you. Probably have a dynasty roster in MLB The Show. It will never happen in real life. Guarantee Soto wont see 1B/DH until 6+ years into his contract.

we weren't arguing about what will happen, we were arguing about what they should do. also, that's a prediction, not a guarantee. and i'm pretty sure he moves off corner OF before 6 years from now.

he is a generational bat that plays anywhere. passing on him because he might need to play 1b instead of corner OF is absurd.

[Cuzi]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

we weren't arguing about what will happen, we were arguing about what they should do. also, that's a prediction, not a guarantee. and i'm pretty sure he moves off corner OF before 6 years from now.

he is a generational bat that plays anywhere. passing on him because he might need to play 1b instead of corner OF is absurd.

I dont care if you are arguing will or should. There isn't a baseball mind on this earth that lives outside of the virtual world that would consider paying a 1B that much money. I dont care how much of a generational bat he is. You pay him that money and LF becomes his grass. End of story.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I agree with this post but also believe everyone will listen for offers on anyone pretty much all the time. It doesn’t really make players available 

Another thing on my mind is what we’re seeing with Ohtani right now: suddenly everyone gets cold feet when a top player is actually available. It’s all sunshine and lollipops now while Soto is pre-FA and unavailable, a pipedream 

Pretty sure Ohtani is everyone's #1 priority; they just don't believe the Cubs will wade in those waters.

[Bertz]

The difference between a 1B and COFer is half a win a year, and that's assuming he is similarly below average defensively on the dirt.  That adds up, especially over a long term deal, which is why I don't expect Juan would make the move before getting paid.

But for a team, that half a win can be more than made up for by the specifics of their roster.  The Cubs have corner outfielders coming out the ears, so Soto staying in the OF rather than shifting to 1B would 1000% be about deference to the desires of a superstar, and not about the pure baseball decision-making.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

But for a team, that half a win can be more than made up for by the specifics of their roster.  The Cubs have corner outfielders coming out the ears, so Soto staying in the OF rather than shifting to 1B would 1000% be about deference to the desires of a superstar, and not about the pure baseball decision-making.

A good chunk of those corner outfielders would be sent in trade to acquire Soto.

The pure baseball decision would already have been decided on and the roster would be adjusted to accommodate Soto in LF.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[17 Seconds]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I dont care if you are arguing will or should. There isn't a baseball mind on this earth that lives outside of the virtual world that would consider paying a 1B that much money. I dont care how much of a generational bat he is. You pay him that money and LF becomes his grass. End of story.

i think you're wrong and out of touch

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

i think you're wrong and out of touch

It's a free country.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

A good chunk of those corner outfielders would be sent in trade to acquire Soto.

The pure baseball decision would already have been decided on and the roster would be adjusted to accommodate Soto in LF.

You think the Padres would want like 3 or 4 outfielders in a Soto trade?

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You think the Padres would want like 3 or 4 outfielders in a Soto trade?

Probably not, but it's what makes up the Cubs best prospects. So if they dont want them, he aint coming.

[Tryptamine]

26 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I hate Hoyer, but I'll take him any day over someone willing to dish out $400M to a 1B/DH. Name your number one GM in baseball and he hasn't come close to offering half of that money to that position.

If the value is the same at either position, why does it matter which one he plays? In this scenario the Cubs have a 3.6 fWAR player in LF already and a big nothing at 1B. If Soto is going to put up 5.5 fWAR at either LF or 1B, I really don't see what difference it makes. This isn't a Cody Bellinger situation where Bellinger derives a lot of of his value from his defense at a premium position so moving him to 1B would like cost him a few wins. 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If the value is the same at either position, why does it matter which one he plays? In this scenario the Cubs have a 3.6 fWAR player in LF already and a big nothing at 1B. If Soto is going to put up 5.5 fWAR at either LF or 1B, I really don't see what difference it makes. This isn't a Cody Bellinger situation where Bellinger derives a lot of of his value from his defense at a premium position so moving him to 1B would like cost him a few wins. 

If the value was the same, Freddie Freeman would have asked for $300M instead of $180M.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

If the value was the same, Freddie Freeman would have asked for $300M instead of $180M.

freeman was like 8 years older than soto, this comparison makes no sense