Your end of season thoughts

[Tim]

First basemen haven't gotten $400M contracts. That's true. Neither have left fielders, being one spot up the defensive spectrum. If you are okay with him making $400M as a left fielder, then you must be okay with him getting around $350M as a first baseman.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The last year he logged over 1000 innings at 3B is 2013, he played 77.1 innings there the rest of his career. He went from 6.1, 6.6, 7.3, 8.6, to 5.2, 4.6, 5.1.

What are you talking about?

He was a full-time first baseman from 2008 to 2011.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You and I both know I'm all about trading Happ, but he just signed an extension and negotiated for a NTC. He's not going anywhere.

So then put him at 1st. Even if they give Mervis another chance rotate Mervis and Happ at 1st and DH. Also DH Soto and Suzuki and let Happ fill in as a corner outfielder. Honestly I don’t see a problem figuring out what to do with Soto. Just get him in the line up. Even if he did DH a few years thise corner guys are not going to be here forever. Soto would be back in the outfield full time by the time he is 28. Just trade for him and figure it out.

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He was a full-time first baseman from 2008 to 2011.

And sprinkling in a bit of 3B in 2012-13 increased his fWAR by 25-30% but there's no difference?

[squally1313]

Ian Happ: plays a perfectly acceptable left field, has played 11 games at first base in his major league career

Juan Soto: plays a terrible corner outfield, has played 0 games at first base

What part of that would lead you to moving Happ and not Soto?

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Ian Happ: plays a perfectly acceptable left field, has played 11 games at first base in his major league career

Juan Soto: plays a terrible corner outfield, has played 0 games at first base

What part of that would lead you to moving Happ and not Soto?

It's baffling. Give up all that talent and pay all that money to Soto and take all that value you just got in acquiring Soto and wash half of it away by removing Happ from LF and putting a far inferior defender there, just because he makes a lot of money. 

[Bertz]

I'm old enough to remember Alex Rodriguez, fresh off a gold glove, moving down the defensive spectrum because it's what his new team preferred and he was already being paid as if he was a shortstop

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Cuzi said:

And sprinkling in a bit of 3B in 2012-13 increased his fWAR by 25-30% but there's no difference?

Having (by far) the best offensive season of his career and being graded as a playable 3B in the other made a difference yes.  The fact that you grouped multiple full-time 1B seasons as his 'before' without realizing makes the point.  Pre-FA Cabrera was consistently a 5-6 win 3B/OF.  After his trade and extension they pretty quickly gave up on him playing 3B and there was no material change to his fWAR. If you think Soto is going to be a better hitter than expected by staying in LF, or (more likely) that he's not actually a terrible LF then yes it makes more sense for him to play there.  If you agree with his recent defensive metric history that he's a horrible outfielder, then there's no value reason to play him there if you don't have to.

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Having (by far) the best offensive season of his career and being graded as a playable 3B in the other made a difference yes.  The fact that you grouped multiple full-time 1B seasons as his 'before' without realizing makes the point.  Pre-FA Cabrera was consistently a 5-6 win 3B/OF.  After his trade and extension they pretty quickly gave up on him playing 3B and there was no material change to his fWAR. If you think Soto is going to be a better hitter than expected by staying in LF, or (more likely) that he's not actually a terrible LF then yes it makes more sense for him to play there.  If you agree with his recent defensive metric history that he's a horrible outfielder, then there's no value reason to play him there if you don't have to.

It doesnt make the point. There's a clear jump in his numbers when he played 3B and a clear decline when he stopped.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Having (by far) the best offensive season of his career and being graded as a playable 3B in the other made a difference yes.  The fact that you grouped multiple full-time 1B seasons as his 'before' without realizing makes the point.  Pre-FA Cabrera was consistently a 5-6 win 3B/OF.  After his trade and extension they pretty quickly gave up on him playing 3B and there was no material change to his fWAR. If you think Soto is going to be a better hitter than expected by staying in LF, or (more likely) that he's not actually a terrible LF then yes it makes more sense for him to play there.  If you agree with his recent defensive metric history that he's a horrible outfielder, then there's no value reason to play him there if you don't have to.

Any offensive value he loses by moving from LF to 1B, he's more than likely going to gain back on the defensive side of things so the value remains roughly the same regardless of position and that's why I don't get why this is even an argument where Happ would have to move. 

[Cuzi]

I think the people arguing that Soto should move to 1B dont realize they are arguing that he's not worth the money, but would spend it anyway.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

It doesnt make the point. There's a clear jump in his numbers when he played 3B and a clear decline when he stopped.

There is not, and definitely not related to position.  This is the most clear if you look at comparable offensive seasons that span his positions.

• 2005: LF/3B, 146 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR
• 2007: 3B, 142 wRC+, 5.0 fWAR
• 2009: 1B, 143 wRC+, 5.1 fWAR
• 2014: 1B, 148 wRC+, 5.2 fWAR

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Ian Happ: plays a perfectly acceptable left field, has played 11 games at first base in his major league career

Juan Soto: plays a terrible corner outfield, has played 0 games at first base

What part of that would lead you to moving Happ and not Soto?

I think moving Happ to first is an easier move for him then moving Soto. Happ was drafted as a second baseman. He has played the infield. This has nothing to do with the money Soto is making. I think Happ would be a better first baseman than Soto, PERIOD. The question would be what is a better defensive team, Happ at 1st and Soto in left or vice versa. For me, I would take Happ at 1st. I think that is a better defense.

[squally1313]

 

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I think the people arguing that Soto should move to 1B dont realize they are arguing that he's not worth the money, but would spend it anyway.

What would you pay Freddie Freeman if Freddie Freeman was 26 years old and also walked a ton more and had a .400 wOBA and not a .383 wOBA. Please give the number of years too, not just some total dollar amount. Freeman got $27m a year two years ago. 

[Tryptamine]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think moving Happ to first is an easier move for him then moving Soto. Happ was drafted as a second baseman. He has played the infield. This has nothing to do with the money Soto is making. I think Happ would be a better first baseman than Soto, PERIOD. The question would be what is a better defensive team, Happ at 1st and Soto in left or vice versa. For me, I would take Happ at 1st. I think that is a better defense.

He would likely be the better 1B but it's a loss in value from him staying in LF and moving Soto to 1B.

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think moving Happ to first is an easier move for him then moving Soto. Happ was drafted as a second baseman. He has played the infield. This has nothing to do with the money Soto is making. I think Happ would be a better first baseman than Soto, PERIOD. The question would be what is a better defensive team, Happ at 1st and Soto in left or vice versa. For me, I would take Happ at 1st. I think that is a better defense.

Disagree on how those two should be deployed in the field between those two positions, but certainly agree it should have nothing to do with their respective salaries. 

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

 

What would you pay Freddie Freeman if Freddie Freeman was 26 years old and also walked a ton more and had a .400 wOBA and not a .383 wOBA. Please give the number of years too, not just some total dollar amount. Freeman got $27m a year two years ago. 

I'm still curious why he's using total contract value. Soto is going to get a 10 or 12 year deal because he's crazy young and at 30M a year that would be 300-360M. 30M for an elite bat at 1B is a completely reasonable number. Even if it was 35M it's not like it's a huge jump from the current 1B market on an annual basis.  

[Tim]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I think the people arguing that Soto should move to 1B dont realize they are arguing that he's not worth the money, but would spend it anyway.

I'll somewhat repeat myself...

 

How much would you pay Soto as a below average-fielding left fielder?

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

 

What would you pay Freddie Freeman if Freddie Freeman was 26 years old and also walked a ton more and had a .400 wOBA and not a .383 wOBA. Please give the number of years too, not just some total dollar amount. Freeman got $27m a year two years ago. 

Based on the history of 1B contracts? Probably something like 8 years with a slight bump in AAV. Say $30M. Call it 8/240.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I think the people arguing that Soto should move to 1B dont realize they are arguing that he's not worth the money, but would spend it anyway.

I do think you are making a bit too much of what a position should be paid. No one else has an OPS+ 157 at 25 years old. He is a generational talent offensively. He should get paid a lot of money for a lot of years no mattered where he plays. More than Freemen, more than Betts, more than Turner and Judge. I don’t like the idea of moving him because I only want him to focus on hitting. And I also think it would be easier to move Happ. But if they did move him to 1st or if he was primarily a DH, he would still be worth a 10-12 year deal in the nighbirhiod of $400M. Maybe $35M a year. 

[thawv]

On 10/3/2023 at 1:36 PM, Tim said:

God no, please.

To answer Tom - speed is a big part of athleticism. At least that seems to be the biggest correlation on which 1B maintain their production. Going through that list of 1B:

1. Pujols - one of the best players ever until age 30. Horrible waste of playing time and money after age 32
2. Bagwell lasted longer, but was also unusually athletic
3. Big Frank was amazing through age 29. He managed two good seasons after that.
4. Thome his his peak later and lasted a little longer. But he was much worse after age 33 than before it.
5. Cabrera started his decline at 31, played pretty well through 33, then fell off a bloody cliff.
6. Palmeiro lasted longer. But he was also athletic enough to be somewhat tolerable in the OF. 
7. Freeman is a big outlier. But he's also very athletic for a 1B.
8. Votto fell off the cliff after 33
9. Goldschmidt is aging reasonably well, but is also sneaky fast.
10. Olerud is a an odd entry here - he's not a slugger at all. He still fell off a cliff after age 33.
11. Berkman became inconsistent after age 28, had his last great year at age 32, was pretty bad afterwards
12. Helton was great through age 30, had a couple of okay seasons at 31 and 33, but was otherwise bad
13. McGwire used steroids to stay strong through age 36. Is that still an option?
14. Mauer was pretty useless after age 30
15. Giambi was never the same after age 32, but had a bit of bounce for a couple years after putting up a 0.0 war year at age 33. He was negative WAR after that.
16. Teixeira is a really good comp for Alonso...and was already in decline at age 30 and was a horrible drag on his team after age 31
17. Delgado had a softer decline than most, but was still mostly a 2-win player after age 31
18. McGriff averaged about (eyeballing it here) 5+ war per year through age 30. He averaged about 2 war after. He hung around better than most, though.
19. Grace had a soft decline. But again, not a slugger.
20. Ryan Zimmerman basically fell apart after age 28.

The next guys on the list are Adrian Gonzalez, Rizzo, Derrek Lee, Edwin Encarnacion, and Mo freaking Vaughn.

Who on that list inspires hope in Alonso being productive on a five year contract that starts at age 30 (there's no chance he gets eight years on the market)?

I'm sure you know this, but there a lot of juicers on this list

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I'm sure you know this, but there a lot of juicers on this list

It's mentioned with the McGwire entry

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Based on the history of 1B contracts? Probably something like 8 years with a slight bump in AAV. Say $30M. Call it 8/240.

In 2016 at 33 years old Cabrera got 8/$240M to DH and play 1st. I think Freeman would have gotten much more, and I think it is fine if Soto, at 25 get even more than that. And I couldn’t care less what position they put him at. 

[Tim]

btw - I'm not making things up with the Soto trade. The rumors of his availability are supposed to be originating from the SD side of things. I've seen their beat guys mentioned as a source on twitter, but I haven't seen the primary reference.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

In 2016 at 33 years old Cabrera got 8/$240M to DH and play 1st. I think Freeman would have gotten much more, and I think it is fine if Soto, at 25 get even more than that. And I couldn’t care less what position they put him at. 

Freeman didn't even get more than that now at a younger age, not even close. Freeman, prior to the Dodgers, was consistently a 4-5 WAR player. Cabrera was an all time great hitter and put up 6-8 WAR years prior to his final contract at 33 years old. There's no comparison between the 2.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Cuzi