Your end of season thoughts

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Stratos said:

I watched Jed Hoyer's entire end of season press conference and didn't really learn anything.

Reporters tried to get him to say whether they'd go over the lux tax threshold next year or about resigning Cody and he obviously wouldn't bite.

He was supportive of Ross but didn't say if he'd be back or not.   They decide on any coaching staff changes within a week or 2.  IMO Ross will be back.

I only read the Bleacher Nation summary, but two things stuck out to me:

 

1. The optimism (especially relative to the Bellinger convo) that Hendricks will be back.  Especially with the option this is a pretty early offseason decision, and unless spending is gonna be much higher than expected(or Stroman opts out), Hendricks has a lot in common with the Hamels option from 2019.  Worth bringing back at the likely cost but does make other upgrades harder given payroll constraints.  You give Hendricks 8 figures, and then you're probably only able to do two out of the 3 potential big spending avenues(Frontline SP, Big Bat 1, Big Bat 2)

2. The talk about finding a singular defensive home for Morel.  Especially given the current roster, it seems like that points toward him getting reps at 3B, which would make for an interesting dynamic considering there isn't a strong incumbent there and several of the big bat options may need or want reps at DH.

[Rcal10]

I would be fine with Morel learning 3rd and playing it full time. He is a guy who can hit 35 homers. They need a power hitter in the line up. And he is here already and cheap. We are all discussing guys like Soto, Alonso, Bellinger and Ohtani and the fact is they probably won’t end up with any of them. Might end up guys like Chapman, Hoskins, Candelario, Bader etc…. But no matter who they get they need some young guys to step forward. I think Morel is the obvious best option for that happening. 

As for pitchers, I am not sure they will sign any (if Stroman comes back and if they re-up Hendricks). But if they do I would expect someone like Montgomery is far more likely than Nola or the ace from Japan. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Hot take: If I’m trading for and moving an unavailable superstar ~5 WAR OF it would be Kyle Tucker playing CF and not Juan Soto playing 1B 

 

Why would Houston consider moving Tucker. I don’t see that happening.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

I definitely see the similarities to the Hamels option and would let Hendricks go, *but* also believe “frontline” SP is an overrated need. Walking in with a starting 5 of Steele, Stroman, Wicks, Taillon, Hendricks is not a dire situation, especially with potentially high even very high upside upper minors SP depth in Brown/Kilian (one could probably be moved for a reliever or glove), Horton, and Gallardo

The offense is pretty close, getting it to #1 in the NL or even MLB doesn’t require a whole lot and would open things up for the pitching. Theo used to like to say “anyone” can pitch in front of a top offense, and that fivesome is competent and even complimentary. There’s at least a couple among the 8 other OD active roster slots that can be improved and a really strong FA RP class to work with 

+1 for Morel at 3B but more because of need than high expectations. He’s a min salary power bat and there’s some approach, probably more than there is real trade Value tbh 

Gallardo? I don’t see him factoring in at all for at least 3 years, if at all. But besides the fiys yiu mentioned they do have Assad, Wesnicki and I am sure they will have Smyly. So there is some BOR depth. I do expect we might see Horton next year if he does well in the minors.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

I definitely see the similarities to the Hamels option and would let Hendricks go, *but* also believe “frontline” SP is an overrated need. Walking in with a starting 5 of Steele, Stroman, Wicks, Taillon, Hendricks is not a dire situation, especially with potentially high even very high upside upper minors SP depth in Brown/Kilian (one could probably be moved for a reliever or glove), Horton, and Gallardo

The offense is pretty close, getting it to #1 in the NL or even MLB doesn’t require a whole lot and would open things up for the pitching. Theo used to like to say “anyone” can pitch in front of a top offense, and that fivesome is competent and even complimentary. There’s at least a couple among the 8 other OD active roster slots that can be improved and a really strong FA RP class to work with 

+1 for Morel at 3B but more because of need than high expectations. He’s a min salary power bat and there’s some approach, probably more than there is real trade Value tbh. If he pops off then great, if not then Murray/Shaw or Shaw/Murray will next guy up 

I won't be too worked up if Hendricks is the only SP they "add", but I know you like your velo and that velo/stuff monster is something I think would go a long way to taking this from being a good team to a team that can win a division/in the playoffs.  You could also interpret this as a statement of belief in Horton or their pitching dev more generally, and I think the general sentiment is probably more down on Taillon/Stroman than they will be in 12 months.  But we saw this year how pitching depth issues have cascading effects, and ideally I'd like to reinforce from the top down.  Plus I have my worries about how much to expect from a full season of Hendricks at age 34.  

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Gallardo and Horton played the same levels of ball this year and are a couple months apart in age. If anything he’s bigger, throws harder on avg, and has a healthier arm than Horton so I don’t see this 3 years thing other than there’s alot of growth potential over that period if healthy. I’m mostly confident he’s going to be the org’s answer to Bobby Miller tbh but that’s for the MiLB section 

And yet everyone seems to love Horton and no one seems to mention Gallardo. So what do you know that scouts seem to be missing? He isn’t even listed in the top 30 cubs prospect list. 

[sneakypower]

On 10/3/2023 at 4:59 PM, squally1313 said:

Lol BBTV has Morel for Alonso as a 'moderate overpay' by the Cubs. DO IT

[Transmogrified Tiger]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I’d say we saw it most in the bullpen and there’s alot more opportunities to throw out a weak arm there on a given night than SP especially playoffs

The bullpen is a great place to build up the staff velo! Cubs were 6th in bullpen velo this year, not even a full MPH behind #1. Guys like Reynaldo Lopez (99, weirdly srs about him being a Top FA for Cubs), Shintaro Fujinami (98?), Ryne Stanek, and Yuki Matsui are among the hardest throwing FAs 

 

 

They're related though, the fewer starts you need from the Smylys, Wesneskis, and Assads of the world, the more likely you are to get quality relief work from them and the pen as a whole.  And going over the top with your rotation acquisition doesn't obviate the need/goal to add a reliever either.  That money is typically not consequential enough to be a barrier if you really want it, and there's trade targets or even scrap heap pickups that can help, Merryweather was a January waiver claim.  I'm also more optimistic that the premium velo in the system now(Palencia, Little, Brown in relief, etc) can be more impactful to 2024 than Horton(or Brown) can be to the MLB rotation in 2024.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

That, I do have to say, is not a real concern.

Ftr: Scouts didn’t miss anything! Gallardo opened as Pipeline’s 5th overall and ranked IFA SP prospect in 2018, same spot future Machado/ARod Cristian Hernandez to open 2021’s rankings and higher than any other IFA they’ve officially signed since Gleyber/Eloy way back (Fernando Cruz is 4th for 2024). That’s not the end all be all but there does seem to be some misconceptions about the background. He’s still the only 16 YO pitcher the Theo FOs have given a 7 figure bonus to and we’re in their second decade! 

So in 2018 he was well thought of. What happened? Why is he not talked about, except by you? 

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Soto is an excellent hitter but I think as a player he's a bit overrated because he's a bad fielder and is going to get even worse as he ages.  There's no difference between giving up a hit with poor defense vs getting a hit.

Except the former might happen a few times a month and the latter should happen many times a week. Other than that they’re exactly the same thing. 
 

The standard deviation of LF defense is as wide as as a nose hair. I haven’t watched enough games but I don’t trust defensive metrics for positions that get the ball hit to them 10 times a week. He could be bad out there. Unless he’s dropping pop ups, the difference between him and a mediocre LF is not important. 

[Dfan25]

Alonso seems like a more realistic possibility to me than Soto . Soto is a difficult fit for this roster . Happ and Suzuki won’t be moved to DH and Soto won’t be a DH . Soto isn’t playing 1B anytime soon .

 

The Alonso rumors aren’t coming only from Chicago guys . I read that Morosi said Cubs and Mariners will be 1st in line if and when Alonso is put on the block .

 

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, sneakypower said:

Yeah I wouldn't trade Morel for Alonso, maybe Alcantara plus Mervis package does it. 

[Tim]

3 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Yeah I wouldn't trade Morel for Alonso, maybe Alcantara plus Mervis package does it. 

BJ Murray is apparently way better. Maybe we don't even have to toss in Mervis that way.

[Cuzi]

7 hours ago, soccer10k said:

Are you just making things up at this point? Bogaerts played 146 games at SS this year. He hasn’t played 3B since 2014.

Nope. Not making horsefeathers up. Just mistaken on which SS got bounced off SS. The discussions around Bogaerts on the Cubs was playing 3B so that's what defaulted in my brain. Still doesn't change the fact they moved a guy off the position to sign Bogaerts and now can't afford Soto.

Edited October 5, 2023 by Cuzi

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

2. The talk about finding a singular defensive home for Morel.  Especially given the current roster, it seems like that points toward him getting reps at 3B, which would make for an interesting dynamic considering there isn't a strong incumbent there and several of the big bat options may need or want reps at DH.

Forgot about that one.  Makes sense.  Hard to see him as just a DH, he's very athletic.

[Stratos]

Just saw that on Baseball Savant that PCA has 98th percentile sprint speed.  Geez.

Jared Young is also the fastest 1B in the MLB.  He's as fast as Nico.

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Except the former might happen a few times a month and the latter should happen many times a week. Other than that they’re exactly the same thing. 
 

The standard deviation of LF defense is as wide as as a nose hair. I haven’t watched enough games but I don’t trust defensive metrics for positions that get the ball hit to them 10 times a week. He could be bad out there. Unless he’s dropping pop ups, the difference between him and a mediocre LF is not important. 

Yep, this.....most teams put their worst defensive players either at first or left.  With the DH you now have another place to hide them but some - even most teams of course have more than one defensively challenged player. 

And there is a reason they put their worst guy in left, it's because as you say - typically they see fewer balls hit to them than at most positions.   Happ was tried at many positions and was below average at all of them - even left, but they left him in left long enough to where he at least became one of the best at a position of mostly bad fielders being hidden in LF - at least last year - this year he regressed back to where he was the year before there, but still probably better than many - so bad is relative. 

So, Soto probably - for the near future - stays in left/DH role wherever he is.  But if I had Soto and could move him to first and put someone else in left who could hit and this helps the team win more games....horsefeathers with the salary .   Can move him back down the line if that becomes a salary cap issue.  Do what's best to win games in the now. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

12 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Yeah I wouldn't trade Morel for Alonso, maybe Alcantara plus Mervis package does it. 

According to the article I just read, the Mets would have to have either PCA or Horton as a centerpiece in the deal. (ha!)

https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-rumors-3-cubs-demand-pete-alonso-trade

That is clearly wishful thinking on the Mets side.  There is a world in which PCA is expendable if the Cubs are able to re-sign Bellinger to play CF.  But not for a guy with 1 year remaining on his contract.  There is no world where I would trade Horton for anything but a cost-controlled star.

[CubinNY]

23 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

According to the article I just read, the Mets would have to have either PCA or Horton as a centerpiece in the deal. (ha!)

https://risingapple.com/posts/ny-mets-rumors-3-cubs-demand-pete-alonso-trade

That is clearly wishful thinking on the Mets side.  There is a world in which PCA is expendable if the Cubs are able to re-sign Bellinger to play CF.  But not for a guy with 1 year remaining on his contract.  There is no world where I would trade Horton for anything but a cost-controlled star.

Crazy. Who are they going to throw in with Alonso? 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

Crazy. Who are they going to throw in with Alonso? 

They can pick any 3 of our 45 FV guys and it would be fair for both side.

[CubinNY]

I've been on the Alonso to the Cubs bandwagon since they started tanking at in May. I don't think I'd trade Alcantara for him. I probably would trade Canario + any pitcher not named Horton, Wicks, or Farris. I'd throw in Mule too, he can be their PCA in three or four years. 

[Bertz]

Yeah Alonso is not going to cost PCA.  I don't even think Soto would honestly.

I'd guess one of our ready/near ready SPs in Assad/Wicks/Brown (these guys will be very popular...whatever the big trade is this winter, expect one of those three in it), plus a bat from the 5-15 range of our top prospect list (Caissie, Canario, Triantos, etc.).

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I definitely definitely don't think Alonso comes anywhere near Crow-Armstrong, can't call takebacks anyway Mets, but really need it spelled out why Alcantara - already on the 40 but not particularly close to the MLs - is untouchable. Seems simpler to just move him, take the press hit because it's not as real towards outcome as the baseball, and keep the overall depth

Alcantara absolutely makes the most sense. Do they have a RP under control that we could use? Feels like Alonso alone is not worth Alcantara. He's just a 3 win player on an expiring contract, powerful bat or not. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

17 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Alcantara absolutely makes the most sense. Do they have a RP under control that we could use? Feels like Alonso alone is not worth Alcantara. He's just a 3 win player on an expiring contract, powerful bat or not. 

How do you feel about Anthony Kay?

[Tim]

37 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

really need it spelled out why Alcantara - already on the 40 but not particularly close to the MLs - is untouchable. Seems simpler to just move him if he's still seen as the One Man with upside, take the press hit because it's not as real towards outcome as the baseball, and keep the overall depth

...and this is why I keep harping on the BJ Murray thing.