Your end of season thoughts

[s2obed]

Levine says Cubs are going to do what they can to trade for Alonso.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 hour ago, s2obed said:

Levine says Cubs are going to do what they can to trade for Alonso.

Seems like Hoyer is really enamored with Alonso. Would much rather have Soto, bet it's mostly a contract thing. Alonso will probably make half of what Soto will eventually sign for. 

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Seems like Hoyer is really enamored with Alonso. Would much rather have Soto, bet it's mostly a contract thing. Alonso will probably make half of what Soto will eventually sign for. 

He'll make far less than half. Alonso wont be setting a record for 1B and Freeman is already signed for less than half of what Soto will get.

I would be all about targeting Soto over Alonso, but it's hard to argue that Alonso isn't an easier plug and play fit. And like I said at the deadline, you are probably only looking at giving up an Alcantara type to get him. You do that without blinking. The Cubs have built up their prospect currency. It's time to invest a little bit of it because they sat out the majority of the FA bonanza that happened over the last 2 years.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

6 hours ago, Cuzi said:

He'll make far less than half. Alonso wont be setting a record for 1B and Freeman is already signed for less than half of what Soto will get.

I would be all about targeting Soto over Alonso, but it's hard to argue that Alonso isn't an easier plug and play fit. And like I said at the deadline, you are probably only looking at giving up an Alcantara type to get him. You do that without blinking. The Cubs have built up their prospect currency. It's time to invest a little bit of it because they sat out the majority of the FA bonanza that happened over the last 2 years.

This works for me. I am just not sure they will spend the money. Even if they didn’t extend Alonso, I feel there isn’t room in the budget next year. Levine said they were thinking of pairing him with Bellinger. That would be a very solid line up next year. I suppose PCA gets another year in the minors and if Alonso leaves PCA comes up to play center and Bellinger moves over to first. But that is a year away so a lot can happen. As for 24’ if that added Alonso and his salary and also Bellinger they don’t really have any other money to spend. Not even sure they can fit those two in. Does Kyle come back? Do they trot out the same rotation? I know Horton is coming. I know Wicks and Assad had good years. I know Wisnecki might be given another chance. But is that the rotation they want? And what about the pen? So they piece it together again? Have to admit the line up would be good. You would have to cover 3rd and DH. Maybe Mervis is given another chance? I feel Morel should cover one of those spots. The last spot would be between Madrigal, Mervis, maybe Canario, a different young guy, Wisdom(hope not) or a smaller FA signing or trade. But is pitching going to be enough? 

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

This works for me. I am just not sure they will spend the money. Even if they didn’t extend Alonso, I feel there isn’t room in the budget next year. Levine said they were thinking of pairing him with Bellinger. That would be a very solid line up next year. I suppose PCA gets another year in the minors and if Alonso leaves PCA comes up to play center and Bellinger moves over to first. But that is a year away so a lot can happen. As for 24’ if that added Alonso and his salary and also Bellinger they don’t really have any other money to spend. Not even sure they can fit those two in. Does Kyle come back? Do they trot out the same rotation? I know Horton is coming. I know Wicks and Assad had good years. I know Wisnecki might be given another chance. But is that the rotation they want? And what about the pen? So they piece it together again? Have to admit the line up would be good. You would have to cover 3rd and DH. Maybe Mervis is given another chance? I feel Morel should cover one of those spots. The last spot would be between Madrigal, Mervis, maybe Canario, a different young guy, Wisdom(hope not) or a smaller FA signing or trade. But is pitching going to be enough? 

I highly doubt any rumor of Bellinger returning to Chicago is anything more than Boras' camp using the Cubs as leverage. It's not impossible, but we are probably talking about slightly better odds than Ohtani landing on the Cubs.

If they pulled off Bellinger and Alonso then you can probably bank on PCA being traded for pitching. No team is signing Bellinger to main first base in year 2. Only reason he played it at all on the Cubs is because our idiot PoBO signed Hosmer and Mancini to play first and a journeyman like Tauchman was a better option in CF.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Cuzi

[CubinNY]

The question is if they target Alonso will they look to lock him into a long-term contract? If not, it changes what they are going to offer or get for him. I imagine that the Mets will have no shortage of suiters for him.

This would be a huge get for Hoyer, especially if they can get an extension worked out.  

[squally1313]

Here's an unorganized plan I would like to see:

• Given recent rumors, trade for Alonso. Call it $17m for 2024, 2025 and beyond we're past the Stroman, Hendricks, Smyly, Mancini deals. Would not take one of our top guys, but probably a few from the second tier.
• Sign Bellinger. Tell him he gets to play center field for as long as he wants. 
• Trade PCA for a young, quality starter with a couple years of control. On the trade value site the list of pitchers within 10 points/whatever of PCA is: Logan Gilbert, Hunter Greene, Eury Perez, Pablo Lopez, Framber, Gallen, Bobby Miller, Brayan Bello, Kyle Bradish, Joe Ryan. Andrew Painter if we want to get creative and the Phillies like the idea of PCA shoring up the outfield defense. Think PCA is going to be a really good player. But I don't think you want to make the whole plane out of Nico Hoerners and we already have essentially two.
• Canario and Mervis have the winter and spring to prove which one should be the DH. 
• If you can get anything of value of Morel, especially on the pitching side, pull the trigger.
• Wisdom/Madrigal are fine for now at third.
• Sigh a couple bullpen dudes. Don't know who they are, don't care. Make sure they are good.
• Rotation is Steele, Stroman, PCA pitcher, Taillon, Hendricks, with Wicks, Ben Brown, Horton (and then the Kilians of the world) in AAA.
• Bullpen is Azlolay, new bullpen dude x 2, Smyly, Assad, Wesneski, Leiter, Merryweather, Palencia, Keegan, Hughes, Heuer, Cuas I guess, etc
• Lineup is Happ, Hoerner, Alonso, Belli, Seiza, Swanson, DH, Amaya/Gomes, Wisdom/Madrigal, bench is Gomes, Madrigal, Canario/Mervis, Tauchman

Edited October 3, 2023 by squally1313

[NorthsideAvenger]

31 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I highly doubt any rumor of Bellinger returning to Chicago is anything more than Boras' camp using the Cubs as leverage. It's not impossible, but we are probably talking about slightly better odds than Ohtani landing on the Cubs.

 

Don't forget Boras is likely not going to get Bellinger signed till late January/early February. I doubt the Cubs want to wait that long for an answer on Bellinger. 

[thawv]

14 hours ago, Stratos said:

Here's my 2024 payroll commitment breakdown for luxury tax purposes.

• 148 million:  guaranteed contracts (assuming Gomes and Stroman come back, and Hendricks re-signs for 12m (10.5m salary + 1.5m buyout)
• 10m in arbitration salaries (Madrigal, Wisdom, Alzolay, Leiter, Merryweather)
• 2m for Steele + Wicks/Assad
• 3m for pre-arb bench bats (e.g. Amaya, Morel, Tauchman)
• 3m for pre-arb pen arms (e.g. Hughes, Thompson, Wesneski)
• 15m = dead weight (Barnhart, Mancini, Bote)
• 3m in minor league 40-man salaries
• 17m in player benefits

TOTAL PAYROLL = 201 million

2024 luxury tax cap = 237 million

So there's about an estimated 36 million in payroll they still have under the cap to use to add players, keeping in mind they like to keep at least 5 million under the cap for in-season flexibility.  That would be about enough to sign an impact player like Bellinger (26m AAV over 6 years?) plus a couple of quality FA veteran pen arms.  The team comes back essentially unchanged but (hopefully) a deeper pen for late-innings, unless they also make a trade.  If no Bellinger then they have to replace his bat in the lineup and find a solution for CF and 1B.

Stroman's money is already in the salary number for next year.  If he opts out, another 23.7 million is added to the cap space. 

Right now, they are 78.4 million under the CBT.  Which includes all player benefits, all dead money, and all 0-3 players.  Using your numbers of 18 million in arb guys,  they are 68.4 million.  No option players are in this number.  Let's give Gomes his 6 million, bringing it down to 62.8 million under.  IF by chance Storman opts out, they would be 86.5 million under the CBT.  If you want to throw Kyle in at 12 million, we are are 66.5 million under the cap.

[muntjack]

Had Alonso been in the Cubs' lineup,  he would have been 7th in WAR.  Just for some perspective. 

[Rcal10]

43 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

The question is if they target Alonso will they look to lock him into a long-term contract? If not, it changes what they are going to offer or get for him. I imagine that the Mets will have no shortage of suiters for him.

This would be a huge get for Hoyer, especially if they can get an extension worked out.  

The cost of Alonso should not change just because a team plans on extending him. He is still a guy on the last year of his contract. I think if the Cubs do trade and extend him they will not be signing another high end long year free agent. They would probably go with PCA in center and maybe sign someone like Bader as insurance. 

[Derwood]

10 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Had Alonso been in the Cubs' lineup,  he would have been 7th in WAR.  Just for some perspective. 

Yeah, someone is going to overpay for him. He has averaged a 3.5 fWAR (if you take out 2020), but peaked his rookie year and had his worst year (2.8) in 2023.

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, muntjack said:

Had Alonso been in the Cubs' lineup,  he would have been 7th in WAR.  Just for some perspective. 

He had the lowest BABIP in baseball and his xwOBA (.372) would have been the highest on the Cubs by 14 points (over Suzuki). 

[Tim]

I would much, much rather invest dollars in Yamamoto than anyone else I see in FA. He's easily my #1 target. I haven't worked up the energy to do much planning beyond that.

[Tim]

If it costs more than BJ Murray to acquire him, I've got little interest in Alonso. I've stated why in other threads. I'm sure I'll have time to dig that up at another point. I'm sure we'll talk about it...extensively this offseason.

[muntjack]

I would give Morel a full year at 3rd. His offensive floor is established and he still has the upside lacking at other positions.  A good team has guys like Wisdom and Madrigal on the bench.   If Morel is a complete disaster, you have options in-house.  

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Yeah, someone is going to overpay for him. He has averaged a 3.5 fWAR (if you take out 2020), but peaked his rookie year and had his worst year (2.8) in 2023.

3rd best 1st baseman by War.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

10 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tl;dr

Team was legit good this year, needs stars to get great, and are in position to do just that. Ohtani is a perfect FA fit, they have the prospects to land at least one other star without destroying The Future, and the farm is only getting started putting out competitive talent. It only took two rebuilds in a decade with Cubs fans freely and bravely asking for more rebuild lol, but finally the Cubs are in a position where The Future could be theirs if ownership is willing to step up for a one time buy worth infinite fan and media credibilities 

I like that this series of moves doesn't rely on simply signing 2 of the 5 top FA, I think too often we fall in that trap without considering why it so rarely happens.  That's still probably gonna end up being well beyond where Jed has the flexbility to go though. If you had to cut 30 million out of that offseason, what would you prioritize?

Also, is there something in particular you see in Wendle?  When you said the name my ears perked up because LH 3B options are not abundant, but checking on his last couple years the bat looks pretty dire at this point.

[Derwood]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

3rd best 1st baseman by War.

Okay? He's still going to get a lot more $$/WAR than he's worth

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Derwood said:

Okay? He's still going to get a lot more $$/WAR than he's worth

Good luck signing anyone if that's the approach

[Tim]

The list of first basemen who don't drop off a cliff in their early 30's is really short. It is really only the much above average athletes at the position who hold up. That ain't Alonso. For reference - a list of top 1B over the past 33 years.

If we trade for him at a reasonable cost for one year and then get the draft pick compensation, that's fine. But I don't want to give up a lot for him for one year and I absolutely do not want to sign him to a longer-term contract.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's the argument for Alonso, in my view:

• The Cubs have above-replacement efficiency in a lot of places, but the thing they need more than additional defensive value(especially without Bellinger) is a star level bat.  Alonso could provide that without costing as much money as Soto, Bellinger, or Ohtani, and have a lower trade cost than Soto too.
• As with Bellinger, Alonso is an easy QO decision so any trade cost you can partially make back through the QO, which is noteworthy as the big contract rolling off next year's books(Stroman) can't be QO'd.  Or you extend him and have that player for longer than their trade cost implied.
• Alonso's WAR is held down significantly by his defense, which OAA hates.  As with catchers, there's an argument to be made that 1B defense isn't perfectly calibrated by metrics, and his career wRC+ with averageish defense is close to a 4 win player
• Alonso's home park is quietly one of the most pitcher friendly in the game, and he could see an uptick from not playing so many games at Citi Field.  Similarly, he's only ever played for one organization, and one that is not heralded for player development, so fresh coaching perspective could conceivably lead to improvement(note: this can go the other way, e.g. Taillon's first half)

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Okay? He's still going to get a lot more $$/WAR than he's worth

I'm sure you have no idea, but WAR is not the final word on a player's value to a team. We already talked about this in the Schwarber thread which I'm positive you didn't understand. If you have a team that is power deprived like the Cubs the value of power becomes greater to the team. In life, context matters. If I thought that they'd give Mervis a decent shot to sink or swim or if there were other players in the system, I'd still want Alonso, but probably not at the cost. The Cubs have nothing and will have to put a guy there to play because pitcher's hand is not a thing in MLB. They might as well fill a need. 

[Chicago Al]

If the Cubs do pull off an Alonso trade an extension has to follow. What do you guys predict? 8 yrs 170 mil?

[champaignchris]

13 minutes ago, Chicago Al said:

If the Cubs do pull off an Alonso trade an extension has to follow. What do you guys predict? 8 yrs 170 mil?

Yeah. That’s basically the same as Matt Olsen’s contract with the Braves and it’s probably the most relevant comp.