General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Ding Dong Johnson]

"back"

[OleMissCub]

Keegan is currently tied for third in WAR in the MLB at 1.1

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Still not a big enough sample to say anything definitively, but there's some encouraging signs from Hoerner's defense. All of DRS, Statcast, and UZR have him playing at an elite level in this year's trivial sample at SS, but what's nice is how well that fits into his broader(but still limited) track record.

 

Hoerner now has 410 innings (45 nine inning games worth) at SS, with a +4 UZR/150 and +8 RAA (Statcast). That also fits with his 468 innings at 2B, where he has a +7 UZR/150 and +11 RAA. If he's a true plus defensive SS then that takes a nice bit of pressure off his bat(and probably transfers it right to Madrigal's bat), which is reflected in him playing at around a 4 win pace this year without having gotten hot at the plate yet.

[Bertz]

Still not a big enough sample to say anything definitively, but there's some encouraging signs from Hoerner's defense. All of DRS, Statcast, and UZR have him playing at an elite level in this year's trivial sample at SS, but what's nice is how well that fits into his broader(but still limited) track record.

 

Hoerner now has 410 innings (45 nine inning games worth) at SS, with a +4 UZR/150 and +8 RAA (Statcast). That also fits with his 468 innings at 2B, where he has a +7 UZR/150 and +11 RAA. If he's a true plus defensive SS then that takes a nice bit of pressure off his bat(and probably transfers it right to Madrigal's bat), which is reflected in him playing at around a 4 win pace this year without having gotten hot at the plate yet.

 

Yeah it feels like he's out this year to prove he's more of a premium athlete than he's gotten credit for. He's been very good at shortstop, even on difficult plays, not just a guy making the routine plays a high percentage of the time. That IMO was the glass half full hope for him as a SS coming into the year.

 

Add that to the increased juice in his bat, and I think if you were doing a stock up/stock down type of analysis on the roster he'd probably still be the #2 guy behind Sieya. Even accounting for his patience being worse in the early going here.

[OleMissCub]

Cubs have highest BA, OBP, and OPS in baseball this season.

 

[Bertz]

We're about 10% of the way through the season at this point. So while I'm in the camp of not getting too worked up about anything until after Memorial Day, enough has happened that you shouldn't totally ignore results either. With that in mind I think we've got a pretty clear bifurcation on which guys' stock is up vs. down from a month ago

 

Stock Up

 

1. Seiya Suzuki - Duh. We all thought we were getting a good well rounded outfielder with primo patience. It turns out we've so far gotten a great all around outfielder with primo patience. The defense has been kind of crummy so far, but I'm hoping that's temporary while learning new ballparks and playing more outside (I believe in NPB stadiums are about 50/50 domes vs open air)

 

2. Nico Hoerner - Like mentioned just a few posts above, he appears to be not just solid but really good at short. And while he's been hacking like crazy in the early going this year, his exit velo numbers are way up. He's now played at about a 5.5 WAR pace since the start of last year, and really just needs to stay on the field

 

3. The Bullpen - I was among the more bullish on the pen coming into the year and even I thought April was going to be an ugly trial and error process. Instead it took about a week to get things sorted out. They've been 8th in baseball in reliever WAR, and 2nd in xFIP (meaning if anything they've been unlucky). The projections have moved a lot considering how little of the season has played out, Fangraphs ranked the unit 23rd before opening day and they now project 19th. I do worry about what happens when Ross isn't able to manage away from back-to-backs and 3/4s so easily, but hopefully more innings from SPs mitigates the lost roster spots

 

Honorable mentions: Hendricks and Wisdom. Results are mixed leaning good for both, but the underlying parts of their games that were especially scary last year are less scary early on, so fingers crossed

 

Stock Down

 

1. Justin Steele - Since his strong first start against the Brewers, he has absolutely wilted as each start has gone on. And it doesn't appear to be the standard times through the order penalty, he's been losing velocity too.

Going from 92-95 early in the game to 89-92 later on.

It just seems like physically he's going to max out as a multi-inning reliever. That said, I do think he could do Keegan Thompson things from the left side (he sort of already did last year), so he's still got value

 

2. Schwindel and Ortega. Unlike Wisdom, neither guy has patched up the red flags they had last year. Schwindel still looks to be tracking as a lefty masher, so that'd certainly be roster-able, but Ortega's only saving grace at this point is not being as bad as Heyward

 

3. Madrigal and Stroman. The results have been disastrous for both, but the underlying numbers are much more forgiving. Stroman's got the longer track record so you really don't worry, but overall they're both probably fine

[mul21]

 

1. Justin Steele - Since his strong first start against the Brewers, he has absolutely wilted as each start has gone on. And it doesn't appear to be the standard times through the order penalty, he's been losing velocity too.

Going from 92-95 early in the game to 89-92 later on.

It just seems like physically he's going to max out as a multi-inning reliever. That said, I do think he could do Keegan Thompson things from the left side (he sort of already did last year), so he's still got value

 

 

I was listening to the radio broadcast during the game Sunday and Coomer was talking about his front side flying open and the way he was laying it out, it sounded like this isn't the first time he's seen this from Steele this year. Probably something that would affect both velocity and the larger thing Coomer mentioned, location of the fastball.

[CubinNY]

The White Sox and Braves are scuffling a little bit out of the gate and the Brewers don't scare until about the 6th inning, but the Cubs are about to play 14 games with teams that clearly have more talent than then them. I'm hoping they will only be four or five games under .500 after this stretch.

[champaignchris]

A lot of what the Cubs hoped would go right this year have gone right…. Suzuki, Wisdom being good, Schwindel being average, bullpen mostly coming together.

 

But they’ve been hampered by injuries forcing them to pitch their #7 and #8 starters 6 out of 15 games and having to put Villar in the middle infield way more than they’d like.

 

If they can weather this rough patch in the schedule and get healthier, I’ll be curious what they look like during the last half of May into June.

 

Probably mostly bad, but not certainly.

[Cubswin11]

So what are the thoughts on Ian Happ so far? I see the 18% K rate in 60 PAs, nice , but also a near 60% with a GO/AO just below 2. He's been at 1.30 or so since the pandemic so hitting too many groundballs isn't new, but he was below 50% the previous two seasons

He’s a streaky/volatile player who always seems to put good stretches together even if the underlying numbers aren’t great indicators and he also has struggled on surface numbers when underlying stuff says he should be better. Idk what to think. Ride the hot hand I guess and there’s plenty of ABs for him on this roster to see if he sustains it.

[UMFan83]

White Sox fan was posting about their underperforming offense but look who is in the magic quadrant for over performance.

 

[Bertz]

White Sox fan was posting about their underperforming offense but look who is in the magic quadrant for over performance.

 

 

This is probably mostly all the groundballs. It's not perfect but that top right quadrant largely tracks with top teams in groundball rate

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=5,d

 

It makes sense too, the deader ball means fly balls are flying less far than the models are used to, but grounders and low liners should be same as ever. That why the graph skews waaayyyy to the left.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

White Sox fan was posting about their underperforming offense but look who is in the magic quadrant for over performance.

 

 

This is probably mostly all the groundballs. It's not perfect but that top right quadrant largely tracks with top teams in groundball rate

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=5,d

 

It makes sense too, the deader ball means fly balls are flying less far than the models are used to, but grounders and low liners should be same as ever. That why the graph skews waaayyyy to the left.

I was going to ask if there was an obvious reason why the model thought a vast majority of teams were underpreforming. I didn't know the ball was dead as my fandom.

[Bertz]

White Sox fan was posting about their underperforming offense but look who is in the magic quadrant for over performance.

 

 

This is probably mostly all the groundballs. It's not perfect but that top right quadrant largely tracks with top teams in groundball rate

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=5,d

 

It makes sense too, the deader ball means fly balls are flying less far than the models are used to, but grounders and low liners should be same as ever. That why the graph skews waaayyyy to the left.

I was going to ask if there was an obvious reason why the model thought a vast majority of teams were underpreforming. I didn't know the ball was dead as my fandom.

 

There's some specifics being worked out as to whether it's the ball or the fact that now all 30 teams are using a humidor. But yeah dongs are way down and the usual crew of people like Rob Arthur who analyze the ball have us basically back to 2015 in the early going.

[OleMissCub]

Rivas needs to be our everyday 1st baseman. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

Dude has put up a 0.4 WAR in just 16 PA's.

 

For comparison, Frank the Tank is at -0.2 in 71 PA's

[squally1313]

Rivas needs to be our everyday 1st baseman. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

Dude has put up a 0.4 WAR in just 16 PA's.

 

For comparison, Frank the Tank is at -0.2 in 71 PA's

 

I won't tell you you're wrong. I will tell you that you're using 16 PAs as your sample size.

[OleMissCub]

Rivas needs to be our everyday 1st baseman. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

Dude has put up a 0.4 WAR in just 16 PA's.

 

For comparison, Frank the Tank is at -0.2 in 71 PA's

 

I won't tell you you're wrong. I will tell you that you're using 16 PAs as your sample size.

 

Fair, but I’m also using my eyes. He’s a better player than Frank.

[jersey cubs fan]

I’m so removed from this team that I have no idea who you all mean when you say Rivas, and I don’t care to look him up.

[Tryptamine]

I know it's artificially inflated by that 21 run beat down, but it's funny to see a team with a +16 run differential and a -35 run differential have the same record.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Rivas needs to be our everyday 1st baseman. Tell me I'm wrong.

 

Dude has put up a 0.4 WAR in just 16 PA's.

 

For comparison, Frank the Tank is at -0.2 in 71 PA's

 

I won't tell you you're wrong. I will tell you that you're using 16 PAs as your sample size.

 

Fair, but I’m also using my eyes. He’s a better player than Frank.

I agree. Rivas also has a pretty good track record in the minor leagues and plays good defense. He actually reminds me a lot of Mark Grace. Not saying that he will turn out to be Mark Grace, but they have a similar profile.

[UMFan83]

 

#HugWatch?

[Rob]

 

#HugWatch?

 

I mean, the Ross thing makes sense. If you have a mild injury and will be back to playing full time in 2-3 days, it doesn't hurt to have teams trying to guess what it is that's injured. If it's a back injury or something, you're probably riding the pine regardless. But a toe injury or something could still see him pinch hitting and getting pulled for a pinch runner. It's not the worst thing in the world to make the other team prepare as if he might be able to play.

[Andy]

 

#HugWatch?

 

I mean, the Ross thing makes sense. If you have a mild injury and will be back to playing full time in 2-3 days, it doesn't hurt to have teams trying to guess what it is that's injured. If it's a back injury or something, you're probably riding the pine regardless. But a toe injury or something could still see him pinch hitting and getting pulled for a pinch runner. It's not the worst thing in the world to make the other team prepare as if he might be able to play.

It makes perfect sense, but it's one of those things that will drive us insane if we're in a sure-thing pinch-hit situation and we end up with some 25th man taking the at-bat instead of Contreras. They used to do that kind of stuff with Bryant and Rizzo all the time.

[CubinNY]

I don’t know what made me think about this, but remember the towel drill?

[Banedon]

I don’t know what made me think about this, but remember the towel drill?

 

No what's that nobody ever mentions it ever please explain thanks