General Cubs Chit-Chat

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I wish it was easier to find how guys do against velo. The data exists, you see it on broadcasts, but it's not easy to see anywhere.

 

But I think that's the one open question with Seiya. I don't believe he's really turned around a good fastball. He's wrecked some at like 92, and offspeed stuff from more flamethrower types, but I think he's mostly fought off real velo.

 

Even if he doesn't do damage on a bigtime fastballs I don't think that precludes him from being very good, but it might preclude him from continuing to do insane Juan Soto things.

 

The closest proxy(and it's not all that close) is probably the Power/Finesse stuff at BR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suzukse01&year=2022&t=b

 

Definitely doing less damage and K'ing more(expected since the Power distinction is based on K rate), but still hitting very well and taking his walks.

[UMFan83]

 

I wish it was easier to find how guys do against velo. The data exists, you see it on broadcasts, but it's not easy to see anywhere.

 

But I think that's the one open question with Seiya. I don't believe he's really turned around a good fastball. He's wrecked some at like 92, and offspeed stuff from more flamethrower types, but I think he's mostly fought off real velo.

 

Even if he doesn't do damage on a bigtime fastballs I don't think that precludes him from being very good, but it might preclude him from continuing to do insane Juan Soto things.

 

The closest proxy(and it's not all that close) is probably the Power/Finesse stuff at BR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suzukse01&year=2022&t=b

 

Definitely doing less damage and K'ing more(expected since the Power distinction is based on K rate), but still hitting very well and taking his walks.

 

Yeah and this doesn't help with velocity at all but he is leading all of baseball in wFB which I believe is weighted runs above average against fastballs, and broken down into wFB/100 fastballs seen he's 4th. It's possible with the small sample size that he's faced a number of lower velocity pitchers but he's definitely crushing fastballs better than almost anyone else in baseball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

I wish it was easier to find how guys do against velo. The data exists, you see it on broadcasts, but it's not easy to see anywhere.

 

But I think that's the one open question with Seiya. I don't believe he's really turned around a good fastball. He's wrecked some at like 92, and offspeed stuff from more flamethrower types, but I think he's mostly fought off real velo.

 

Even if he doesn't do damage on a bigtime fastballs I don't think that precludes him from being very good, but it might preclude him from continuing to do insane Juan Soto things.

 

The closest proxy(and it's not all that close) is probably the Power/Finesse stuff at BR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suzukse01&year=2022&t=b

 

Definitely doing less damage and K'ing more(expected since the Power distinction is based on K rate), but still hitting very well and taking his walks.

 

Yeah and this doesn't help with velocity at all but he is leading all of baseball in wFB which I believe is weighted runs above average against fastballs, and broken down into wFB/100 fastballs seen he's 4th. It's possible with the small sample size that he's faced a number of lower velocity pitchers but he's definitely crushing fastballs better than almost anyone else in baseball.

 

He's seeing an average fastball velocity that's slightly above the midpoint for qualified hitters: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=4,d&page=2_50

[Cubswin11]

 

Now imagine if they had Correa and with Davis in the wings, this offense would actually be kind of exciting.

Trade the farm for Soto, problem solved

[sneakypower]

maybe an unpopular opinion, but i think the rules should be amended to exclude him from ROY consideration

not much point to the award when a seasoned Japanese league Mike Trout comes here in the prime of his career and predictably? kicks ass while other rookies face such a stiffer test comparatively

 

full disclosure, i was personally delighted when Angel Berroa beat out Matsui for the award way back

[squally1313]

maybe an unpopular opinion, but i think the rules should be amended to exclude him from ROY consideration

not much point to the award when a seasoned Japanese league Mike Trout comes here in the prime of his career and predictably? kicks ass while other rookies face such a stiffer test comparatively

 

full disclosure, i was personally delighted when Angel Berroa beat out Matsui for the award way back

 

I assume you think the NPB is significantly more difficult than AAA?

[Bertz]

 

The closest proxy(and it's not all that close) is probably the Power/Finesse stuff at BR: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=suzukse01&year=2022&t=b

 

Definitely doing less damage and K'ing more(expected since the Power distinction is based on K rate), but still hitting very well and taking his walks.

 

Yeah and this doesn't help with velocity at all but he is leading all of baseball in wFB which I believe is weighted runs above average against fastballs, and broken down into wFB/100 fastballs seen he's 4th. It's possible with the small sample size that he's faced a number of lower velocity pitchers but he's definitely crushing fastballs better than almost anyone else in baseball.

 

He's seeing an average fastball velocity that's slightly above the midpoint for qualified hitters: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=4,d&page=2_50

 

I think I found it? This was pretty tucked away but I feel like MLB ought to make a much bigger deal that this is available:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=CHC&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_stats_pa=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results

 

Small sample, but Seiya excels here too. He might just be perfect?

 

Also Happ is apparently crushing velo this year too, and that hasn't always been the case.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nice! I went to Statcast after reading your post but didn't think of/know about the custom query. Fanning that out it looks like Seiya is 2 for 6 with 2 singles, 2 K, 3 BB

 

I wonder how they group this at a plate appearance level, does the decisive pitch(in play, K, ball 4) have to be the velocity you filtered on, or is it if any pitch in the PA hits that mark?

[UMFan83]

 

Yeah and this doesn't help with velocity at all but he is leading all of baseball in wFB which I believe is weighted runs above average against fastballs, and broken down into wFB/100 fastballs seen he's 4th. It's possible with the small sample size that he's faced a number of lower velocity pitchers but he's definitely crushing fastballs better than almost anyone else in baseball.

 

He's seeing an average fastball velocity that's slightly above the midpoint for qualified hitters: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=4&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=4,d&page=2_50

 

I think I found it? This was pretty tucked away but I feel like MLB ought to make a much bigger deal that this is available:

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=FF%7CFT%7CFC%7CSI%7C&hfAB=&hfGT=R%7C&hfPR=&hfZ=&stadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2022%7C&hfSit=&player_type=batter&hfOuts=&opponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfInfield=&team=CHC&position=&hfOutfield=&hfRO=&home_road=&hfFlag=&hfBBT=&metric_1=api_p_release_speed&metric_1_gt=95&metric_1_lt=&hfInn=&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&group_by=name&sort_col=xwoba&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc&min_pas=0&chk_stats_pa=on&chk_stats_hits=on&chk_stats_xba=on&chk_stats_xwoba=on#results

 

Small sample, but Seiya excels here too. He might just be perfect?

 

Also Happ is apparently crushing velo this year too, and that hasn't always been the case.

 

Happ is also 5-11 hitting righty this year and his go ahead single last night was batting righty. Obviously an extremely small sample size, but nice to see

[Bertz]

Nice! I went to Statcast after reading your post but didn't think of/know about the custom query. Fanning that out it looks like Seiya is 2 for 6 with 2 singles, 2 K, 3 BB

 

I wonder how they group this at a plate appearance level, does the decisive pitch(in play, K, ball 4) have to be the velocity you filtered on, or is it if any pitch in the PA hits that mark?

 

Yeah that's not clear, but it seems like it's the result pitch. I'd love to get greedy and get plate discipline (chase, contact, etc.) but I'd imagine it's rare for a guy to e.g. be super susceptible to something early in the count but much less so later. Maybe if more guys choked up like Rizzo?

 

Happ is also 5-11 hitting righty this year and his go ahead single last night was batting righty. Obviously an extremely small sample size, but nice to see

 

Several of those going the other way too, whereas previously I feel like batting right he's mostly just swung hard and hoped he ran into one.

[Tim]

Assume for a minute that Simmons, Miley and Mills can all come back first week of May, along with rosters shrinking back to 26. What five people do you kick off the island?

 

I'll start with:

 

Leiter - DFA

Effross - Option

Rucker - Option

 

Those seem like the easy, safe bets. I think the other two come from the pool of:

 

Hermosillo

Ortega

Norris

Chavez

Roberts

 

At this point, I'd guess it would be Roberts getting optioned and a tossup between the OF's.

 

Or they just find someone to DL.

[Tim]

Oh, also, I'd probably try to find a trade partner to give me a flier in return for Mills so that I could keep one of those guys on the roster.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Assume for a minute that Simmons, Miley and Mills can all come back first week of May, along with rosters shrinking back to 26. What five people do you kick off the island?

 

I'll start with:

 

Leiter - DFA

Effross - Option

Rucker - Option

 

Those seem like the easy, safe bets. I think the other two come from the pool of:

 

Hermosillo

Ortega

Norris

Chavez

Roberts

 

At this point, I'd guess it would be Roberts getting optioned and a tossup between the OF's.

 

Or they just find someone to DL.

 

I'd say it'll be Leiter(or maybe Mills himself), Rucker, Roberts, Hermosillo, and then one of Chavez or Effross.

[CubinNY]

Assume for a minute that Simmons, Miley and Mills can all come back first week of May, along with rosters shrinking back to 26. What five people do you kick off the island?

 

I'll start with:

 

Leiter - DFA

Effross - Option

Rucker - Option

 

Those seem like the easy, safe bets. I think the other two come from the pool of:

 

Hermosillo

Ortega

Norris

Chavez

Roberts

 

At this point, I'd guess it would be Roberts getting optioned and a tossup between the OF's.

 

Or they just find someone to DL.

 

I'd say it'll be Leiter(or maybe Mills himself), Rucker, Roberts, Hermosillo, and then one of Chavez or Effross.

I'm going Chavez, Hermosillo, Rucker, Leiter, Norris. I kind of feel bad for Herosillo because you can tell he knows every at-bat could be his last.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would option Frazier. Not sure what he's bringing to the table at this point. At least Hermasillo can fake it in CF.

[Bertz]

Effross has been out best reliever, I certainly wouldn't do anything with him.

 

I think you option Leiter, Rucker, and Roberts, DFA the worst of the vet relievers (as of now Chavez), and kick the worst OFer off the team. At the moment that'd be either Ortega or Frazier, and because it's so close you'd choose Frazier because he has options.

 

I do also wonder if how easy it'd be to trade Mills, I think if that's a real option it simplifies things to an extent and would be attractive.

[Backtobanks]

Oh, also, I'd probably try to find a trade partner to give me a flier in return for Mills so that I could keep one of those guys on the roster.

 

Hosmer + Campusano + Myers + Cash for Mills + Heyward + Ortega + Bote.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

Oh, also, I'd probably try to find a trade partner to give me a flier in return for Mills so that I could keep one of those guys on the roster.

 

Hosmer + Campusano + Myers + Cash for Mills + Heyward + Ortega + Bote.

This is would a fun take on those &-themed t-shirts.

[CubinNY]

Oh, also, I'd probably try to find a trade partner to give me a flier in return for Mills so that I could keep one of those guys on the roster.

 

Hosmer + Campusano + Myers + Cash for Mills + Heyward + Ortega + Bote.

Lol, I forgot Bote even existed.

[sneakypower]

Jed's so spooked by his extension he's vowed to never do another one

[Old Style]

[Rex Buckingham]

I mean, he played with MVP Kris Bryant and Javy when he was almost MVP... Suzuki may be awesome, and let's hope so!, but come on Willy. 2 weeks of great play is all well and good, but slow your roll.

[Irrelevant Dude]

Oh, also, I'd probably try to find a trade partner to give me a flier in return for Mills so that I could keep one of those guys on the roster.

 

Hosmer + Campusano + Myers + Cash for Mills + Heyward + Ortega + Bote.

Lol, I forgot Bote even existed.

I came to that same realization last night. He has no place on this team.

[UMFan83]

 

Hosmer + Campusano + Myers + Cash for Mills + Heyward + Ortega + Bote.

Lol, I forgot Bote even existed.

I came to that same realization last night. He has no place on this team.

 

where is he right now, is he hurt or something? I vaguely remember an injury

[Cubswin11]

Lol, I forgot Bote even existed.

I came to that same realization last night. He has no place on this team.

 

where is he right now, is he hurt or something? I vaguely remember an injury

He’s on the 60 day IL, he had a shoulder surgery after that collision/fall last year. I think he’s a months away from coming back.