General Cubs Chit-Chat

[squally1313]

Over 50% of his starts and innings he was a sub 3 ERA pitcher, he wasn’t bad the whole year was my point and maybe he’s more that May-July pitcher than the final ~50 IP from August-September that were a disaster.

They played baseball in April too. Like, if you want me to set aside the numbers and try and buy into some whole 'once the team fell apart he stopped trying, but he's the most clutch pitcher in Cubs history and should go down as the best pitcher of the good Cubs era and therefore I have faith if we're good he'll be nails again'....I'd love it. But if this is levelheaded analysis, looking at his body of work and the projections done by people a lot smarter than us, expecting 3 wins is just not accurate.

The point was it seems like a lot of people seem to think what Hendricks was over those final ~50 innings is what he was all year and completely sucked, which just isn't true and what he now is for sure moving forward. He was his normal, good, Kyle Hendricks for a large chunk of the season and he was his good normal self in the most recent 3 seasons.

 

Maybe he does just suck now and those final 50 innings is what he is, but with the sell off last year maybe he just wasn't as engaged the final 2 months, maybe he was dealing with an injury, maybe fatigue set in after the shortened season, those things could be causes too and he's not permanently bad now.

 

I can't say I've looked at a ton of projections other than Zips and they have him close to 3 and Hendricks has always been a guy who outperforms projections. I just don't think we can be any more certain he definitely is bad now and barely a 1 WAR pitcher just as much as I can't be certain he's a 3+WAR pitcher anymore. I think there's data, evidence and reason to think either outcome is as likely as the other, I prefer to try and find positives and be optimistic about him. He also should have a much better defense behind him this year.

 

Me and you are usually on the same page, but this is just bad analysis. Hendricks wasn’t some sort of sort of 3.00 robot before last year, he had good stretches and bad stretches that totaled up to a good overall pitcher. In 2021 he had bad stetches at the end of the year, and april which you keep ignoring, and he had a 3ish month stretch where he pitched to generally his career average. That is a clear movement in his variability. I’m sure he’ll have a stretch of 3.00 ERA performance this year too. And if he does that for 3 months and sucks the other 3, he’ll be considered a bad pitcher.

[Cubswin11]

They played baseball in April too. Like, if you want me to set aside the numbers and try and buy into some whole 'once the team fell apart he stopped trying, but he's the most clutch pitcher in Cubs history and should go down as the best pitcher of the good Cubs era and therefore I have faith if we're good he'll be nails again'....I'd love it. But if this is levelheaded analysis, looking at his body of work and the projections done by people a lot smarter than us, expecting 3 wins is just not accurate.

The point was it seems like a lot of people seem to think what Hendricks was over those final ~50 innings is what he was all year and completely sucked, which just isn't true and what he now is for sure moving forward. He was his normal, good, Kyle Hendricks for a large chunk of the season and he was his good normal self in the most recent 3 seasons.

 

Maybe he does just suck now and those final 50 innings is what he is, but with the sell off last year maybe he just wasn't as engaged the final 2 months, maybe he was dealing with an injury, maybe fatigue set in after the shortened season, those things could be causes too and he's not permanently bad now.

 

I can't say I've looked at a ton of projections other than Zips and they have him close to 3 and Hendricks has always been a guy who outperforms projections. I just don't think we can be any more certain he definitely is bad now and barely a 1 WAR pitcher just as much as I can't be certain he's a 3+WAR pitcher anymore. I think there's data, evidence and reason to think either outcome is as likely as the other, I prefer to try and find positives and be optimistic about him. He also should have a much better defense behind him this year.

 

Me and you are usually on the same page, but this is just bad analysis. Hendricks wasn’t some sort of sort of 3.00 robot before last year, he had good stretches and bad stretches that totaled up to a good overall pitcher. In 2021 he had bad stetches at the end of the year, and april which you keep ignoring, and he had a 3ish month stretch where he pitched to generally his career average. That is a clear movement in his variability. I’m sure he’ll have a stretch of 3.00 ERA performance this year too. And if he does that for 3 months and sucks the other 3, he’ll be considered a bad pitcher.

I’d say he was pretty darn close to a 3.000 Robot before last year. Sure there’s always in season variance and good/bad stretches (every pitcher has that), but he was damn consistent. From 2016-2020 his ERA was between 2.1-3.7 every year, only 1 season with a FIP/xFIP over 4 in that stretch (4.20 xFIP in 2019), 4 years over 3, 2 over 4 WAR, 2017 he was at 2.5 but missed time with an injury and 2020 was pitching like a 3-4+ WAR guy over a full year.

 

I get what you’re saying but again, just trying to illustrate not all of last season was bad for him. But yeah with variance, his profile, general pitcher attrition, aging, etc maybe he just is like a 1-2 WAR pitcher now.

[Cubfanintheknow]

Ethan Roberts made the opening day roster. Excited to see what he can do out of the pen, there’s a high level RP potential in him.

 

Marquee's cameras caught the moment when Ross went up to shake Roberts' hand to let him know he was going to head to Chicago with the big club. Naturally, he got a little emotional. Pretty cool.

[squally1313]

The point was it seems like a lot of people seem to think what Hendricks was over those final ~50 innings is what he was all year and completely sucked, which just isn't true and what he now is for sure moving forward. He was his normal, good, Kyle Hendricks for a large chunk of the season and he was his good normal self in the most recent 3 seasons.

 

Maybe he does just suck now and those final 50 innings is what he is, but with the sell off last year maybe he just wasn't as engaged the final 2 months, maybe he was dealing with an injury, maybe fatigue set in after the shortened season, those things could be causes too and he's not permanently bad now.

 

I can't say I've looked at a ton of projections other than Zips and they have him close to 3 and Hendricks has always been a guy who outperforms projections. I just don't think we can be any more certain he definitely is bad now and barely a 1 WAR pitcher just as much as I can't be certain he's a 3+WAR pitcher anymore. I think there's data, evidence and reason to think either outcome is as likely as the other, I prefer to try and find positives and be optimistic about him. He also should have a much better defense behind him this year.

 

Me and you are usually on the same page, but this is just bad analysis. Hendricks wasn’t some sort of sort of 3.00 robot before last year, he had good stretches and bad stretches that totaled up to a good overall pitcher. In 2021 he had bad stetches at the end of the year, and april which you keep ignoring, and he had a 3ish month stretch where he pitched to generally his career average. That is a clear movement in his variability. I’m sure he’ll have a stretch of 3.00 ERA performance this year too. And if he does that for 3 months and sucks the other 3, he’ll be considered a bad pitcher.

I’d say he was pretty darn close to a 3.000 Robot before last year. Sure there’s always in season variance and good/bad stretches (every pitcher has that), but he was damn consistent. From 2016-2020 his ERA was between 2.1-3.7 every year, only 1 season with a FIP/xFIP over 4 in that stretch (4.20 xFIP in 2019), 4 years over 3, 2 over 4 WAR, 2017 he was at 2.5 but missed time with an injury and 2020 was pitching like a 3-4+ WAR guy over a full year.

 

I get what you’re saying but again, just trying to illustrate not all of last season was bad for him. But yeah with variance, his profile, general pitcher attrition, aging, etc maybe he just is like a 1-2 WAR pitcher now.

 

That’s not what I’m saying, in response to your first paragraph. He would have good months and bad months and he would end up at yearly numbers that were pretty consistent. The terms ‘good’ and ‘bad’ there are relative terms for everyone, but by definition the ‘good’ was better than his season numbers and his ‘bad’ was worse. Now we’re saying his ‘good’ inner season stretches are just…his old season averages. And his bad stretches are also worse. The window moved. It’s like how Soriano would hit 250 for 80% of the year and then turn into a god the other 20% to finish at like 270. And then the god stretches turned into 270 and the bad stretches became 220.

 

I predict Kyle will be good, league average wise, for a good stretch of the year. We haven’t seen elite in a while. And we’ve seen a lot of bad.

 

Also, I know this reads terribly, sorry. Difference between ignoring work on my computer and ignoring the kids on my phone.

[Banedon]

Ethan Roberts made the opening day roster. Excited to see what he can do out of the pen, there’s a high level RP potential in him.

 

[Derwood]

Justin Steele will be the #2 starter

 

Big market team energy there

[CubinNY]

Ethan Roberts made the opening day roster. Excited to see what he can do out of the pen, there’s a high level RP potential in him.

It was a great authentic moment captured. What a moment.

[Banedon]

 

The fourth ghost is cropped. Click to see...lol

[champaignchris]

I’m not as up on the analytics as many here, but the Hendricks pessimism seems like a lot of recency bias to me.

 

He was trucking along having a very typical Kyle Hendricks year through Aug 11 - 13-4 with 3.65 ERA - and then was putrid over his last 9 starts of the year.

 

How heavy should those last 9 starts weigh in predicting what Hendricks does going forward? I can’t answer that question. I can say that the predictive analytics have never liked Hendricks. So I take them with a bigger grain of salt than I do most any other player.

[Andy]

Justin Steele will be the #2 starter

 

Big market team energy there

Absolutely not a defense of the Ricketts, but Stroman would be #2 if not for the desire to split him and Hendricks up in the order.

[Derwood]

Justin Steele will be the #2 starter

 

Big market team energy there

Absolutely not a defense of the Ricketts, but Stroman would be #2 if not for the desire to split him and Hendricks up in the order.

 

Sure, but he shouldn’t even be sniffing the rotation on a large market team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Justin Steele will be the #2 starter

 

Big market team energy there

Absolutely not a defense of the Ricketts, but Stroman would be #2 if not for the desire to split him and Hendricks up in the order.

 

Sure, but he shouldn’t even be sniffing the rotation on a large market team.

 

ZiPS sees basically no difference between Steele's expected production and guys like Tony Gonsolin, Nestor Cortes, and Taijuan Walker, all of whom have rotation spots on Top 3 payrolls at the moment. I'm not particularly bullish on Steele and the back of the rotation is one of the weakest spots on the roster, but is it too much to ask to avoid the misleading histrionics? He's the 6th starter on paper and the worst case scenario is he quickly gets dropped for a different placeholder until Miley and Alzolay are back.

[squally1313]

I’m not as up on the analytics as many here, but the Hendricks pessimism seems like a lot of recency bias to me.

 

He was trucking along having a very typical Kyle Hendricks year through Aug 11 - 13-4 with 3.65 ERA - and then was putrid over his last 9 starts of the year.

 

How heavy should those last 9 starts weigh in predicting what Hendricks does going forward? I can’t answer that question. I can say that the predictive analytics have never liked Hendricks. So I take them with a bigger grain of salt than I do most any other player.

 

3.68 ERA through 8/11 with a 4.57 FIP and a 4.37 xFIP. Lowest K rate since his rookie year, highest home run rate (pretty significantly), slowest fastball, etc. Yes, he's generally outperformed his FIP, by 0.37 for his career. You can't expect someone to outperform it by almost a full run like he was doing. It could happen, but you can't expect it. Giving him a 4.20 ERA (4.57-0.37), which coincidentally is exactly what ZIPs DC (not sure what DC is) has him at, for 175 innings gives you a 2.1 WAR. That's the most generous projection of the six Fangraphs has listed. And that math I did is ignoring the last two months, where we all agree he was awful.

[woodchip2153]

You all are missing a key point. I didn't draft him on any of my fantasy teams this year, so he'll be good.

[champaignchris]

Absolutely not a defense of the Ricketts, but Stroman would be #2 if not for the desire to split him and Hendricks up in the order.

 

Sure, but he shouldn’t even be sniffing the rotation on a large market team.

 

ZiPS sees basically no difference between Steele's expected production and guys like Tony Gonsolin, Nestor Cortes, and Taijuan Walker, all of whom have rotation spots on Top 3 payrolls at the moment. I'm not particularly bullish on Steele and the back of the rotation is one of the weakest spots on the roster, but is it too much to ask to avoid the misleading histrionics? He's the 6th starter on paper and the worst case scenario is he quickly gets dropped for a different placeholder until Miley and Alzolay are back.

 

Other than the Dodgers, are any MLB teams going to have something other than a Steele equivalent starting when their 3rd (Miley) and 4th (Alzolay) starters are hurt? I mean, they might have more potential as a prospect, but in terms of ability right now, if they were much better than Steele, they wouldn't be the 6th guy in the rotation.

[Bertz]

Ethan Roberts is one of the more fascinating stories the Cubs have right now in pitching development. Drafted in the fourth round in 2018, the Tennessee Tech product raves about the influx of pitching-focused officials like assistant GM/vice president of pitching Craig Breslow, pitching development coordinator Casey Jacobson and pitching performance coordinator James Ogden. Roberts was truly delighted to learn he made the Opening Day roster after upping his velocity to where he’s sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 with his four-seamer. He credits a program of pulldowns and the sequencing of his developmental process. The early emphasis on making sure his body is working as fast as possible helped him understand how he should move to maximize his velocity.

 

Roberts reportedly sat 93 last year. If he's sitting 95 now that levels up his ceiling considerably. In terms of stuff you're looking at a profile like Ryan Pressly, a legitimate 1st division closer.

[squally1313]

Ethan Roberts is one of the more fascinating stories the Cubs have right now in pitching development. Drafted in the fourth round in 2018, the Tennessee Tech product raves about the influx of pitching-focused officials like assistant GM/vice president of pitching Craig Breslow, pitching development coordinator Casey Jacobson and pitching performance coordinator James Ogden. Roberts was truly delighted to learn he made the Opening Day roster after upping his velocity to where he’s sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 with his four-seamer. He credits a program of pulldowns and the sequencing of his developmental process. The early emphasis on making sure his body is working as fast as possible helped him understand how he should move to maximize his velocity.

 

Roberts reportedly sat 93 last year. If he's sitting 95 now that levels up his ceiling considerably. In terms of stuff you're looking at a profile like Ryan Pressly, a legitimate 1st division closer.

 

Hopefully he gets us a solid prospect in July!

[Cubswin11]

Ethan Roberts is one of the more fascinating stories the Cubs have right now in pitching development. Drafted in the fourth round in 2018, the Tennessee Tech product raves about the influx of pitching-focused officials like assistant GM/vice president of pitching Craig Breslow, pitching development coordinator Casey Jacobson and pitching performance coordinator James Ogden. Roberts was truly delighted to learn he made the Opening Day roster after upping his velocity to where he’s sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 with his four-seamer. He credits a program of pulldowns and the sequencing of his developmental process. The early emphasis on making sure his body is working as fast as possible helped him understand how he should move to maximize his velocity.

 

Roberts reportedly sat 93 last year. If he's sitting 95 now that levels up his ceiling considerably. In terms of stuff you're looking at a profile like Ryan Pressly, a legitimate 1st division closer.

He also started throwing a slider this year and was taught it by the Yankees pitching guy we hired away, Moskos or something like that. Seems like there’s potentially a slider revolution coming, lots of guys allegedly picking one up this offseason.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Ethan Roberts is one of the more fascinating stories the Cubs have right now in pitching development. Drafted in the fourth round in 2018, the Tennessee Tech product raves about the influx of pitching-focused officials like assistant GM/vice president of pitching Craig Breslow, pitching development coordinator Casey Jacobson and pitching performance coordinator James Ogden. Roberts was truly delighted to learn he made the Opening Day roster after upping his velocity to where he’s sitting in the mid-90s and touching 97 with his four-seamer. He credits a program of pulldowns and the sequencing of his developmental process. The early emphasis on making sure his body is working as fast as possible helped him understand how he should move to maximize his velocity.

 

Roberts reportedly sat 93 last year. If he's sitting 95 now that levels up his ceiling considerably. In terms of stuff you're looking at a profile like Ryan Pressly, a legitimate 1st division closer.

He also started throwing a slider this year and was taught it by the Yankees pitching guy we hired away, Moskos or something like that. Seems like there’s potentially a slider revolution coming, lots of guys allegedly picking one up this offseason.

See if Heyward can even put one into play

[champaignchris]

With the postponement of the Yankees-Red Sox game due to weather, Cubs-Brewers will be the first baseball game of the new season.

[Cubswin11]

With the postponement of the Yankees-Red Sox game due to weather, Cubs-Brewers will be the first baseball game of the new season.

[javy knows my name]

With the postponement of the Yankees-Red Sox game due to weather, Cubs-Brewers will be the first baseball game of the new season.

 

We can retire this meme now, it will get no better

[UMFan83]

With the postponement of the Yankees-Red Sox game due to weather, Cubs-Brewers will be the first baseball game of the new season.

 

Isn't it supposed to snow here tomorrow and Friday? We might end up being the last 1st game of the season.

[UMFan83]

lol, in The Ringer's preseason power poll. They never resist the chance to rip on the Ricketts cheapness

 

19. Chicago Cubs

Chicago’s full-scale teardown last July left a few good players behind: Kyle Hendricks, Willson Contreras, and Ian Happ. The young double-play combination of Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal should be interesting, and adding Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman in free agency is more than a lot of erstwhile contenders did this offseason. This is still a real estate development company first and a baseball team second—but if the Brewers have a couple awkward pitching injuries, the Cubs could fight for a playoff spot.

[UMFan83]

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33645791/2022-mlb-predictions-expanded-playoffs-world-series-mvps-cy-youngs

 

1 of the 38 reporters chose the Cubs to win a wild card spot! Suzuki was also the consensus choice for NL ROY