General Cubs Chit-Chat

[UMFan83]

[Bertz]

FanGraphs playoff odds are out. Cubs are given a 3.4% chance of making the playoffs, which is less than half than a Reds team that has been gutted over the past few days. 5th lowest playoff odds in baseball.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

 

If you do want to feel a little better, a team like the Cubs with a lot of depth and very few guys locked into roles is going to be a bit underrated by the FG methodology. Reason being, the way it works is they fill out a depth chart, add up the WARs, account for strength of schedule, and voila.

 

However, that doesn't account for how guys actually perform over the course of the year. Take Harold Ramirez and Michael Hermosillo. Those two guys are fighting for the same role on the team. If they both make the OD roster whoever performs better will quickly cannabilize playing time from the other. But on the depth charts, they're both locked into their set play time.

 

When Dan Szymborski runs ZiPS directly, it does account for this and dynamically adjust playing time. It's not a huge lift, but he had the Cubs at 76 wins two weeks ago:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projecting-a-12-team-playoff-structure/

 

It's a modest difference, but when 80% of your roster is playing time battles it adds up to a couple of wins. IMO it's probably a big part of why FG consistently underestimated the Brewers in 17/18/19.

[Bertz]

 

I think I like Mills more than most on this board, but I'm really hoping subsequent trades/signings lead to this not happening. I just don't like having four such similar guys in the same rotation. Yeah Miley's left handed and Stroman throws a bit harder, but the front four are all basically the same guy.

[Bertz]

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

With each one of their moves, the Cubs sneak just that much closer to contention. Last week, ZiPS had Chicago with an 11.1% chance to make the playoffs. Since then, the team has added Villar, Suzuki, Simmons, and David Robertson. At the same time, the Reds have cleaned house to the extent that their roster resembles a serving plate of Buffalo wings at 11:45 PM on Super Bowl Sunday. This has crept the Cubs to a fraction of a win below 80 in ZiPS, with a 27.0% chance of making the playoffs.

 

just think if they had been serious about Correa

[CyHawk_Cub]

 

just think if they had been serious about Correa

Sneaking into the playoffs and blaming poor postseason luck is the model. Having good players is boring, or so I'm told.

[CubinNY]

I wonder how ticket sales are going? I’ve gotten 5 emails this week reminding me to purchase tickets.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I wonder how ticket sales are going? I’ve gotten 5 emails this week reminding me to purchase tickets.

Same. I thought my final last chance was months ago, but I now have new final last chances.

[jersey cubs fan]

I wonder how ticket sales are going? I’ve gotten 5 emails this week reminding me to purchase tickets.

Same. I thought my final last chance was months ago, but I now have new final last chances.

yeah, I'm getting a new last chance every week. I keep replying that I'm not interested in supporting an ownership group that promotes neo-fascist politicians and they keep replaying, "we understand"

[UMFan83]

15th highest payroll in the league, I'm surprised they are having so much trouble having people buy the most expensive tickets in baseball.

[Rob]

15th highest payroll in the league, I'm surprised they are having so much trouble having people buy the most expensive tickets in baseball.

 

I am still in awe at how quickly the Ricketts family has managed to alienate the fanbase.

 

They buy the team from an old fashioned ownership group. They let the team tank for the first couple years, but the money saved is clearly being reinvested in modernizing the front office and the farm system. Then a bunch of money gets pumped into the team and they win their first World Series in more than a hundred years, breaking one of professional sports most famous losing streaks. The city is elated. At this point, people were falling all over themselves praising the Ricketts.

 

Here we are, a bit more than five years later, and they're almost universally reviled. It's honestly incredible.

[jersey cubs fan]

15th highest payroll in the league, I'm surprised they are having so much trouble having people buy the most expensive tickets in baseball.

 

I am still in awe at how quickly the Ricketts family has managed to alienate the fanbase.

 

They buy the team from an old fashioned ownership group. They let the team tank for the first couple years,

I'mma stop you right there. It was way more than a couple years of tanking. They bought the team in 2009, the Cubs lost 89 games in 2014. There have been 5 (if you are being generous) non-tanking seasons in a 12-year span of their ownership and they are deliberately entering their 13th season of ownership with three hands tied behind their back.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15th highest payroll in the league, I'm surprised they are having so much trouble having people buy the most expensive tickets in baseball.

 

I am still in awe at how quickly the Ricketts family has managed to alienate the fanbase.

 

They buy the team from an old fashioned ownership group. They let the team tank for the first couple years,

I'mma stop you right there. It was way more than a couple years of tanking. They bought the team in 2009, the Cubs lost 89 games in 2014. There have been 5 (if you are being generous) non-tanking seasons in a 12-year span of their ownership and they are deliberately entering their 13th season of ownership with three hands tied behind their back.

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

[sneakypower]

 

I am still in awe at how quickly the Ricketts family has managed to alienate the fanbase.

 

They buy the team from an old fashioned ownership group. They let the team tank for the first couple years,

I'mma stop you right there. It was way more than a couple years of tanking. They bought the team in 2009, the Cubs lost 89 games in 2014. There have been 5 (if you are being generous) non-tanking seasons in a 12-year span of their ownership and they are deliberately entering their 13th season of ownership with three hands tied behind their back.

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

c'mon that was grandfathered in, their total spend in the 10-11 offseason was less than $28M

[jersey cubs fan]

I'mma stop you right there. It was way more than a couple years of tanking. They bought the team in 2009, the Cubs lost 89 games in 2014. There have been 5 (if you are being generous) non-tanking seasons in a 12-year span of their ownership and they are deliberately entering their 13th season of ownership with three hands tied behind their back.

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

c'mon that was grandfathered in, their total spend in the 10-11 offseason was less than $28M

If you intentionally keep Jim Hendry employed at GM, you be tanking.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'mma stop you right there. It was way more than a couple years of tanking. They bought the team in 2009, the Cubs lost 89 games in 2014. There have been 5 (if you are being generous) non-tanking seasons in a 12-year span of their ownership and they are deliberately entering their 13th season of ownership with three hands tied behind their back.

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

c'mon that was grandfathered in, their total spend in the 10-11 offseason was less than $28M

 

I don't see how that matters. If it does then the argument is the Ricketts were intentionally wanting the team to lose by supplying it with a Top 5 payroll and not firing the GM who had averaged 84 wins/season prior to them(including 97 the year before they bought the team) and won 83 in their first year. It makes the definition of 'tanking' so broad as to be meaningless.

[CubinNY]

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

c'mon that was grandfathered in, their total spend in the 10-11 offseason was less than $28M

 

I don't see how that matters. If it does then the argument is the Ricketts were intentionally wanting the team to lose by supplying it with a Top 5 payroll and not firing the GM who had averaged 84 wins/season prior to them(including 97 the year before they bought the team) and won 83 in their first year. It makes the definition of 'tanking' so broad as to be meaningless.

I'm having difficulty giving them credit for not intentionally selling off players on a winning team they bought.

 

But really, it's history. This isn't the same organization they bought; it's the organization they created and it's not in the same shape with the same rules as then. If winning is 2nd or 3rd on the list of importance to them, what they are doing makes perfect sense. They are charging premium prices and running out a mediocre product. It's up to the fans to support that. The Ricketts are banking on it.

 

I think the new (old) CBA kind of threw a wrench in Theo's plans and then the Ricketts stopped spending to extend the window of contention.

Edited March 23, 2022 by CubinNY

[David]

It's an insider article, so that's why I'm only posting Cerami's run down

 

 

McDaniel actually ranks all the Cubs prospects above a Future Value of 40 (what he calls “quality depth”), and just as we’ve been discussing all offseason, the Cubs actually rank FOURTH in MLB with 18 prospects at a 40+ Future Value or higher (you can see all of them ranked here at ESPN). That’s a really nice compliment, especially considering the Cubs overall organizational ranking (21st) and the fact that they landed just one prospect in this top-100, Brennen Davis, and it’s about as low of a ranking as he’s gotten (No. 28). Only the Pirates have more “quality depth” than the Cubs do in the National League.

 

But if you think for a second that McDaniel isn’t goo-goo about the Cubs system, you should take a look at his writeup at ESPN. Running down the list of non-top-100 prospects (so Caissie down), McDaniel has almost nothing but glowing reviews and expectations of improvement for each player above.

 

Just a taste …

 

• Caissie has “massive raw power”

• Hernandez was the “best in his international signing class, with a chance for above-average hit/power tools and to stick at shortstop”

• Crow-Armstrong “could be on the verge of jumping to a 50 FV this season”

• Alcantara “is a 6-foot-4 premium fit in center field. He’s only 19, but if everything clicks, he could be a superstar.”

• Kilian “is sneakily the best pitching prospect in the system”

 

I’m trying not to share too much, because the article is premium content at ESPN+, but it really is as glowing a review of the Cubs system as I’ve seen, and that coming from someone who ranks the Cubs system among the bottom ten organizations in baseball (it’s all about the average distance away from the majors, I gather).

 

Another trend I’m noticing: With Brennen Davis firmly at the top, it seems the Cubs have built a consensus top-7 prospects, in a variety of arrangements. You almost always see Caissie, Triantos, Hernandez, Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara, and Preciado following Davis in some order, but then it feels like there’s a meaningful gap before what comes next.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No. 21 overall

No. 4 in quality depth (prospects better than 40 FV)

$178 million total value

43 players

 

1. Brennen Davis, CF, 60 FV (28th in Top 100)

2. Owen Caissie, LF, 50 FV (114)

3. James Triantos, 2B, 50 FV (115)

4. Cristian Hernandez, SS, 45+ FV

5. Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, 45+ FV

6. Kevin Alcantara, CF, 45+ FV

7. Reggie Preciado, 3B, 45+ FV

8. Ed Howard, SS, 45 FV

9. Caleb Kilian, RHP, 45 FV

10. Jordan Wicks, LHP, 45 FV

11. D.J. Herz, LHP, 45 FV

12. Miguel Amaya, C, 45 FV

13. Christopher Morel, 3B, 45 FV

14. Nelson Velazquez, RF, 45 FV

15. Alexander Canario, RF, 45 FV

16. Alexander Vizcaino, RHP, 40+ FV

17. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, 40+ FV

18. Ryan Jensen, RHP, 40+ FV

 

40 FV (15): Yohendrick Pinango/LF, Kohl Franklin/RHP, Drew Gray/LHP, Cory Abbott/RHP, Ben Leeper/RHP, Burl Carraway/LHP, Greg Deichmann/RF, Bryce Ball/1B, Chase Strumpf/2B, Yeison Santana/SS, Kevin Made/SS, Michael Rucker/RHP, Ethan Roberts/RHP, Tyler Schlaffer/RHP, Daniel Palencia/RHP

 

35+ FV (10): Ismael Mena/CF, Anderson Espinoza/RHP, Alfonso Rivas/1B, Cole Roederer/LF, Jordan Nwogu/LF, Christian Franklin/CF, Hunter Bigge/RHP, Rafael Morel/2B, Max Bain/RHP, Koen Moreno/RHP

 

2022 Impact: Davis

 

Over 40 FV Breakout Pick: Crow-Armstrong

 

40 FV or less breakout pick: Franklin

 

Ranked prospects beyond the Top 100

 

 

In recent trades as well as in the domestic and international amateur classes, the Cubs have been targeting high-upside, lower-minors position players. Caissie came in the Yu Darvish deal -- he is limited to left field, but his massive raw power started to show up this year. Triantos was a compensation-round pick who was a late riser based on conviction in his now hit/power combo, and his pro debut backed that up. It's still early, but Hernandez was arguably the best in his international signing class, with a chance for above-average hit/power tools and to stick at shortstop. Crow-Armstrong, who was rehabbing shoulder surgery when he was acquired for Javier Baez, has made real swing improvements this offseason; he could be on the verge of jumping to a 50 FV this season.

 

Alcantara was acquired in the Anthony Rizzo trade with the Yankees and is a 6-foot-4 premium fit in center field. He's only 19, but if everything clicks, he could be a superstar. Preciado came with Caissie from San Diego in the Darvish deal -- he's the prototypical lanky switch-hitting teenaged shortstop who will probably move to third base and could have above-average tools across the board. Howard has plus physical skills with some questions about his pitch selection, but all the raw tools are there. Amaya has solid-average tools and can stick behind the plate, but his in-game power has stalled at the upper levels. Morel has big power but will probably never be an above-average contact type -- much like Velazquez, another plus raw power guy who is probably also a below-average contact rate type. Canario was acquired in the Kris Bryant deal -- he also has plus raw power with, wait for it, contact concerns.

 

 

Kilian was also with Canario in that Bryant package and is sneakily the best pitching prospect in the system after a breakout 2021. He sits in the mid-90s and has a solid-average four-pitch mix with separator plus command. Wicks was the Cubs' most recent first-rounder. He's a big lefty with a plus-plus changeup and above-average command, but his fastball/slider combo is average at best. Vizcaino, also in the Rizzo package, will probably end up a reliever but has two plus pitches in his mid-90s heater and changeup. Herz put up gaudy strikeout numbers with above-average raw stuff from the left side and enough feel to potentially start. Marquez has long been tickling triple digits from the left side, but the rest of the package hasn't made much progress of late. Jensen also sits in the mid-90s; he can probably start but doesn't have a true swing-and-miss secondary pitch.

 

Others of note

 

Franklin is a hot name internally for Cubs personnel. He missed the entire 2021 season with oblique then shoulder trouble, but since his return to the mound, he has run his heater up to 98 mph while still flashing a plus changeup. There's starter command and a solid-average curveball, so Franklin might be on the express train to becoming the top pitching prospect in the system if he can deliver on that internal momentum. Gray was a personal favorite in the draft last year, flashing a mid-90s heater with bat-missing characteristics from the left side, along with an easy plus curveball with very high spin and a long, projectable frame.

 

Gray went to IMG in Florida but grew up in Illinois as a two-way player, so the polish and workload aren't quite what the kids growing up in Florida are used to. If everything clicks, he could also run up this list, but that'll likely take a couple of years. Carraway is a super fun, single-inning, high-effort lefty -- into the high-90s, with a 70-grade curveball with lots of aggression, but limited execution right now. Ball joined the system from Atlanta in the Joc Pederson deal, a late-round find with 70-grade raw power who has hit better than expected so far. Santana (third guy in the Darvish package) and Made (seven-figure international signing) both have had some rightful hype in the past few years. They both have some tools, but neither hit as much as expected in 2021.

[Bertz]

It's largely the same list as Longenhagen, except Eric bumped Preciado and Alcantara up one more level, and I think they used different methodologies for converting grades into dollars

[Bertz]

[Cubfanintheknow]

 

Payroll in the Ricketts era pre-Theo was 3rd, 4th, and 6th. Incompetence is not tanking.

c'mon that was grandfathered in, their total spend in the 10-11 offseason was less than $28M

 

I don't see how that matters. If it does then the argument is the Ricketts were intentionally wanting the team to lose by supplying it with a Top 5 payroll and not firing the GM who had averaged 84 wins/season prior to them(including 97 the year before they bought the team) and won 83 in their first year. It makes the definition of 'tanking' so broad as to be meaningless.

 

I think there's confusion between "tanking" and "we don't know what the hell we're doing."

 

As opposed to right now: "What's the least we can do on the field to make the most money we possibly can?"

[Bertz]

 

 

Presumably now Steele is 100% in the rotation, all of the outfielders make the OD roster, and one of Roberts/Rodriguez make the pen

[Banedon]

the Cubs had the best offseason of any team, by net 2021 WAR added from newcomers minus WAR lost from departures.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nl-central-preview-who-will-play-spoiler-to-the-brewers/

[Rob]

the Cubs had the best offseason of any team, by net 2021 WAR added from newcomers minus WAR lost from departures.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nl-central-preview-who-will-play-spoiler-to-the-brewers/

 

Mind you, that doesn't include Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo all being shipped off at the deadline.