General Cubs Chit-Chat

[champaignchris]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

[David]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

 

not to mention that they have a tv station that they cant afford to completely cripple with a long tank + rebuild, unsustainably high (much higher than what they were in 2011-14 when they also had the good will of people buying in to the theo rebuild) ticket prices that nobody will pay to watch a rebuild (and a season ticket base that isn't just going to stick around in hopes of getting to see that first world series like they might have in the past), and just flat out the fact that the landscape has changed - hoyer himself has said the sign and flip stuff they did back then would not fly today.

 

 

all that said, horsefeathers ptr and his stupid horsefeathering letter.

[Backtobanks]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

 

Plan to try what? Winning without spending too much.

[squally1313]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

 

not to mention that they have a tv station that they cant afford to completely cripple with a long tank + rebuild, unsustainably high (much higher than what they were in 2011-14 when they also had the good will of people buying in to the theo rebuild) ticket prices that nobody will pay to watch a rebuild (and a season ticket base that isn't just going to stick around in hopes of getting to see that first world series like they might have in the past), and just flat out the fact that the landscape has changed - hoyer himself has said the sign and flip stuff they did back then would not fly today.

 

 

all that said, horsefeathers ptr and his stupid horsefeathering letter.

 

I believe the majority of the TV revenue comes from people who pay for it as part of their normal cable package, which was always the plan. Seeing rumors online that season ticket prices will drop a very small amount, which, combined with the 6 digit waiting list and your standard stream of Chicago tourists, will be more than enough to keep ticket revenue high. I can see there being some pressure just in terms of keeping the surrounding area lively, but it's pretty much a locked in cash cow at this point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

 

not to mention that they have a tv station that they cant afford to completely cripple with a long tank + rebuild, unsustainably high (much higher than what they were in 2011-14 when they also had the good will of people buying in to the theo rebuild) ticket prices that nobody will pay to watch a rebuild (and a season ticket base that isn't just going to stick around in hopes of getting to see that first world series like they might have in the past), and just flat out the fact that the landscape has changed - hoyer himself has said the sign and flip stuff they did back then would not fly today.

 

 

all that said, horsefeathers ptr and his stupid horsefeathering letter.

 

I believe the majority of the TV revenue comes from people who pay for it as part of their normal cable package, which was always the plan. Seeing rumors online that season ticket prices will drop a very small amount, which, combined with the 6 digit waiting list and your standard stream of Chicago tourists, will be more than enough to keep ticket revenue high. I can see there being some pressure just in terms of keeping the surrounding area lively, but it's pretty much a locked in cash cow at this point.

 

Attendance was down to just under 2 million this year, even in the valleys of 2012-2014 it didn't dip below 2.6 million. Yes, Covid was a big factor, but this is also still stated attendance v. actual, which matters a lot more when the cash cow relies on the gameday experience with all the stuff they just finished building in and around the park.

 

There was also this bit from Mooney recently that indicates it's ownership that won't have the patience for a 2012-2014 level rebuild

 

The Cubs generate 70 percent of their revenue from the game day experience at Wrigley Field, according to Ricketts, who told ESPN during Major League Baseball’s shutdown last year that “the scale of losses across the league is biblical.” After performing in an empty Wrigley Field in 2020, the Cubs drew 1,978,934 fans this year, their first dip under the 2 million mark in attendance since the strike-shortened seasons in 1994 and 1995.

 

Maybe a few new coaches will push different buttons next season, and young players like Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal will get healthy, and the pitching staff will be utilized in creative ways, and more top prospects will follow Brennen Davis with breakthroughs in 2022. But the Cubs are not going to hit on all of their best-case scenarios. Money can fix a lot of problems for a team that not only lost 91 games but also shed almost all of its identity and star power at a time when Wrigley Field is fully renovated and Marquee Sports Network is on the air. Hoyer understands the external expectations, and internal pressures have been raised to the point where his front office can’t roll out the same kind of 101-loss team that the Cubs assembled in 2012, the first year of the Epstein/Hoyer regime.

 

I don't think we can be all that certain what 'trying' looks like in terms of payroll, but increasingly it seems like the more concerning estimates of 125 million or so are not going to be accurate. Whether that's 150 million or 175 million, and what the FO's appetite is to use that flexibility on longer term contracts/QO recipients remains to be seen.

[Backtobanks]

 

not to mention that they have a tv station that they cant afford to completely cripple with a long tank + rebuild, unsustainably high (much higher than what they were in 2011-14 when they also had the good will of people buying in to the theo rebuild) ticket prices that nobody will pay to watch a rebuild (and a season ticket base that isn't just going to stick around in hopes of getting to see that first world series like they might have in the past), and just flat out the fact that the landscape has changed - hoyer himself has said the sign and flip stuff they did back then would not fly today.

 

 

all that said, horsefeathers ptr and his stupid horsefeathering letter.

 

I believe the majority of the TV revenue comes from people who pay for it as part of their normal cable package, which was always the plan. Seeing rumors online that season ticket prices will drop a very small amount, which, combined with the 6 digit waiting list and your standard stream of Chicago tourists, will be more than enough to keep ticket revenue high. I can see there being some pressure just in terms of keeping the surrounding area lively, but it's pretty much a locked in cash cow at this point.

 

Attendance was down to just under 2 million this year, even in the valleys of 2012-2014 it didn't dip below 2.6 million. Yes, Covid was a big factor, but this is also still stated attendance v. actual, which matters a lot more when the cash cow relies on the gameday experience with all the stuff they just finished building in and around the park.

 

There was also this bit from Mooney recently that indicates it's ownership that won't have the patience for a 2012-2014 level rebuild

 

The Cubs generate 70 percent of their revenue from the game day experience at Wrigley Field, according to Ricketts, who told ESPN during Major League Baseball’s shutdown last year that “the scale of losses across the league is biblical.” After performing in an empty Wrigley Field in 2020, the Cubs drew 1,978,934 fans this year, their first dip under the 2 million mark in attendance since the strike-shortened seasons in 1994 and 1995.

 

Maybe a few new coaches will push different buttons next season, and young players like Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal will get healthy, and the pitching staff will be utilized in creative ways, and more top prospects will follow Brennen Davis with breakthroughs in 2022. But the Cubs are not going to hit on all of their best-case scenarios. Money can fix a lot of problems for a team that not only lost 91 games but also shed almost all of its identity and star power at a time when Wrigley Field is fully renovated and Marquee Sports Network is on the air. Hoyer understands the external expectations, and internal pressures have been raised to the point where his front office can’t roll out the same kind of 101-loss team that the Cubs assembled in 2012, the first year of the Epstein/Hoyer regime.

 

I don't think we can be all that certain what 'trying' looks like in terms of payroll, but increasingly it seems like the more concerning estimates of 125 million or so are not going to be accurate. Whether that's 150 million or 175 million, and what the FO's appetite is to use that flexibility on longer term contracts/QO recipients remains to be seen.

 

They won't do a rebuild, but Contreras trade rumors are hot and heavy. :-k

[KingCubsFan]

 

I believe the majority of the TV revenue comes from people who pay for it as part of their normal cable package, which was always the plan. Seeing rumors online that season ticket prices will drop a very small amount, which, combined with the 6 digit waiting list and your standard stream of Chicago tourists, will be more than enough to keep ticket revenue high. I can see there being some pressure just in terms of keeping the surrounding area lively, but it's pretty much a locked in cash cow at this point.

 

Attendance was down to just under 2 million this year, even in the valleys of 2012-2014 it didn't dip below 2.6 million. Yes, Covid was a big factor, but this is also still stated attendance v. actual, which matters a lot more when the cash cow relies on the gameday experience with all the stuff they just finished building in and around the park.

 

There was also this bit from Mooney recently that indicates it's ownership that won't have the patience for a 2012-2014 level rebuild

 

The Cubs generate 70 percent of their revenue from the game day experience at Wrigley Field, according to Ricketts, who told ESPN during Major League Baseball’s shutdown last year that “the scale of losses across the league is biblical.” After performing in an empty Wrigley Field in 2020, the Cubs drew 1,978,934 fans this year, their first dip under the 2 million mark in attendance since the strike-shortened seasons in 1994 and 1995.

 

Maybe a few new coaches will push different buttons next season, and young players like Nico Hoerner and Nick Madrigal will get healthy, and the pitching staff will be utilized in creative ways, and more top prospects will follow Brennen Davis with breakthroughs in 2022. But the Cubs are not going to hit on all of their best-case scenarios. Money can fix a lot of problems for a team that not only lost 91 games but also shed almost all of its identity and star power at a time when Wrigley Field is fully renovated and Marquee Sports Network is on the air. Hoyer understands the external expectations, and internal pressures have been raised to the point where his front office can’t roll out the same kind of 101-loss team that the Cubs assembled in 2012, the first year of the Epstein/Hoyer regime.

 

I don't think we can be all that certain what 'trying' looks like in terms of payroll, but increasingly it seems like the more concerning estimates of 125 million or so are not going to be accurate. Whether that's 150 million or 175 million, and what the FO's appetite is to use that flexibility on longer term contracts/QO recipients remains to be seen.

 

They won't do a rebuild, but Contreras trade rumors are hot and heavy. :-k

 

Good. Let somebody else pay a 30 year old catcher long-term.

[Tim]

Yeah - I get people linking a trade of Contreras with giving up, but that's not really true.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1. A writer or two saying "if they're rebuilding maybe they'll trade Contreras since he's a FA to be without an extension" is not 'hot and heavy' trade rumors, characterizing it as such is outing yourself as an unserious person.

 

2. Trading Contreras as an academic exercise is not punting on multiple years. As mentioned, he's 30 as a catcher so his best days are likely behind him, and he's never hit 3 fWAR in a season so the bar is not so absurdly high in replacing him.

 

3. However, any team you're trading Contreras to is unlikely to be giving you substantial 2022 contributors, which further hurts the likelihood of 2022 and 2023 being playoff caliber teams. Plus with Amaya's disappointing 2021 there isn't an internal candidate at the ready to take on a starting role, nor is catcher a particularly deep position in FA. Contreras's skillset is well rounded enough that until I hear otherwise about him having absurd contract demands, I'm assuming the best way forward is extending him.

[Backtobanks]

Yeah - I get people linking a trade of Contreras with giving up, but that's not really true.

 

It's not "giving up", but it's admitting that you have pushed the idea of a competitive team back another year or two.

[squally1313]

Yeah - I get people linking a trade of Contreras with giving up, but that's not really true.

 

It's not "giving up", but it's admitting that you have pushed the idea of a competitive team back another year or two.

 

Considering he only has one year left, 'or two' is not accurate. Or at least it's a different conversation where you can prove out a reasonable extension.

[Rob]

Yeah - I get people linking a trade of Contreras with giving up, but that's not really true.

 

It's not "giving up", but it's admitting that you have pushed the idea of a competitive team back another year or two.

 

Considering he only has one year left, 'or two' is not accurate. Or at least it's a different conversation where you can prove out a reasonable extension.

 

In fairness, he strikes me as just the type of guy to take a qualifying offer. If he has a really good 2022 and looks like a decent bet for ~3 wins, I could see the Cubs extending that offer. It's not like they have a lot else to spend the money on right now, and they need to sell some jerseys. And if they do extend that offer, not a lot of teams will be lining up to lose a draft pick to sign a catcher over 30 to an expensive multi-year deal. So the odds he takes the ~19 mil or so would be pretty high.

 

That said, the CBA will probably change how those work anyways.

[CubinNY]

If someone’s position is that Ricketts is a lying liar who lies, I understand and you’re probably not wrong.

 

However, it we take that statement at face value, “We have the resources necessary to compete in 2022 and beyond, and we will use them,” is a pretty unambiguous declaration that the Cubs plan to try next year.

 

Plan to try what? Winning without spending too much.

 

"Compete" is going to be the watchword.

[Bertz]

I don't know if they're finalized (they accidentally put up some prelim ones for a brief period last year), but Fangraphs put up the Steamer Projections for next year.

 

The Good:

 

- Already sees Brennen Davis as an above average hitter (.246/.320/.444 103 wRC+)

- Happ, Contreras, Hoerner, and Madrigal all look like good everyday players

- Schwindel, Hermosillo, and Ortega look like solid second-division types

- SO. MANY. RELIEVERS. I literally found 15 relievers that project to a better than league average ERA, and I might have missed a few

- They projected Justin Steele as a full time starter and he comes in with a 4.40 ERA

- Caleb Kilian, and to a lesser extent Ryan Jensen and Anderson Espinoza, look project as ready to be MLBers right now

- On the position player side, Miguel Amaya and Nelson Velazquez look closer than I would have thought

 

The Bad

 

- Kyle Hendricks projects to a 4.68 ERA, Alec Mills to a 4.89

- Patrick Wisdom projects to a .700 OPS

- On the prospect side, it's not a fan of Strumpf or Morel or Deichman

 

There's an obvious dearth of star power, but a lot more cromulence than I think you'd expect if you watched the team in August and September.

[The_Achiever]

It does seem like the floor has been raised with players in the system. They traded Bryzzo, Javy and Joc and the offense actually improved, which is something.

 

Starting pitching is a disaster, though. And big contracts for FA pitchers are pretty much always a little sus. The Hendo projection worries me quite a bit because he's our best and has been our best and now maybe on the downslope? It takes a while to build up pitching/rotation and I just don't want to wait 2-3 more years (at a minimum) before the next good Cubs team.

[Brian707]

5 years ago tonight :flythew:

[Bertz]

I don't know if they're finalized (they accidentally put up some prelim ones for a brief period last year), but Fangraphs put up the Steamer Projections for next year.

 

The Good:

 

- Already sees Brennen Davis as an above average hitter (.246/.320/.444 103 wRC+)

- Happ, Contreras, Hoerner, and Madrigal all look like good everyday players

- Schwindel, Hermosillo, and Ortega look like solid second-division types

- SO. MANY. RELIEVERS. I literally found 15 relievers that project to a better than league average ERA, and I might have missed a few

- They projected Justin Steele as a full time starter and he comes in with a 4.40 ERA

- Caleb Kilian, and to a lesser extent Ryan Jensen and Anderson Espinoza, look project as ready to be MLBers right now

- On the position player side, Miguel Amaya and Nelson Velazquez look closer than I would have thought

 

The Bad

 

- Kyle Hendricks projects to a 4.68 ERA, Alec Mills to a 4.89

- Patrick Wisdom projects to a .700 OPS

- On the prospect side, it's not a fan of Strumpf or Morel or Deichman

 

There's an obvious dearth of star power, but a lot more cromulence than I think you'd expect if you watched the team in August and September.

 

These weren't quite final. They've changed a little bit since I posted this, though mostly in terms of playing time rather than performance. The two biggest seem to be a small offensive bump for Wisdom and they changed Alzolay from a swingman to a full time starter. The results are pretty solid, with them expecting him to be a bit better than league average starter.

[Tryptamine]

5 years ago tonight :flythew:

 

It feels so much longer and the world feels completely different now than it did then.

[CubinNY]

Fun fact from Bret via Patric Mooney- the Cubs have 7 players left from last year’s opening day roster.

[scythe]

still miss the 2016 feeling :D

[Bertz]

 

A lot more bearish on the offense than Steamer (though more in terms of playing time than talent), but comparatively bullish on the pitching (except Justin Steele)

[Sammy Sofa]

*PTR licks his disgusting lips*

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

A lot more bearish on the offense than Steamer (though more in terms of playing time than talent), but comparatively bullish on the pitching (except Justin Steele)

 

Yeah I'd say on net that it's slightly light, I'd take the over on Hendricks, one of Mills/Steele/Thompson, and Happ, while the 3B and SS projections are more aggressive(and probably Stroman too), but nothing outrageous and as fans we'll always lean optimistic. I think what this does is lay out that if they do go the route that's expected and add some type of SS and someone like Seager, that they're really embracing variance with the OF. That's a decent place to do it since there's lots of playing time to cycle and new options are easier to come by(especially in the high minors relative to other positions), but it does underscore that you need an unexpected outcome and maybe two of them.

[UMFan83]

I did the math in my head but I think its close to 31 WAR from all their projections which isn't terrible if you assume the Cubs will probably add a few more wins after the lockout. For reference, the White Sox were at 36.4 (again quick math in my head)

[Bertz]

 

A lot more bearish on the offense than Steamer (though more in terms of playing time than talent), but comparatively bullish on the pitching (except Justin Steele)

 

Yeah I'd say on net that it's slightly light, I'd take the over on Hendricks, one of Mills/Steele/Thompson, and Happ, while the 3B and SS projections are more aggressive(and probably Stroman too), but nothing outrageous and as fans we'll always lean optimistic. I think what this does is lay out that if they do go the route that's expected and add some type of SS and someone like Seager, that they're really embracing variance with the OF. That's a decent place to do it since there's lots of playing time to cycle and new options are easier to come by(especially in the high minors relative to other positions), but it does underscore that you need an unexpected outcome and maybe two of them.

 

Yeah, the OF looks really prepped to be a free for all. Happ's probably got a fairly firm initial hold on LF, but otherwise it's going to be a case of throwing guys at the wall until three stick. Steamer likes Harold Ramirez and Brennen Davis a little more. ZiPS likes Hermosillo, Wisdom, and Ortega better. Both like Hoerner, so if/when we get a real SS he can be a CF option as well.

 

I did the math in my head but I think its close to 31 WAR from all their projections which isn't terrible if you assume the Cubs will probably add a few more wins after the lockout. For reference, the White Sox were at 36.4 (again quick math in my head)

 

I believe the rule of thumb is that a replacement level team would win 45-50 games. So a low 30's WAR projection is a smidge under .500 projected performance.