General Cubs Chit-Chat

[stitchface]

I think you have to trade Rizzo. He is a piece teams would love to add. Then you sign him back.

[UMFan83]

I think you have to trade Rizzo. He is a piece teams would love to add. Then you sign him back.

 

I feel like that so rarely happens in reality that you can count the times it does work out on one hand, but I'm ok with that strategy even with the high risk that he does not come back.

[abuck1220]

no thanks to extending the 32 year old 1b with chronic low back problems that hasn't OPS'ed over .800 in two seasons.

[David]

no thanks to extending the 32 year old 1b with chronic low back problems that hasn't OPS'ed over .800 in two seasons.

 

correct.

[Derwood]

no thanks to extending the 32 year old 1b with chronic low back problems that hasn't OPS'ed over .800 in two seasons.

 

something something heart of the team

[CyHawk_Cub]

[Bertz]

FWIW, as of about a month ago projections thought he was worth an extension

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-big-three-is-back/

 

After 2020, ZiPS no longer thought a five-year deal as likely, instead seeing a four-year, $65 million deal as the sweet spot, a loss of $22 million for Rizzo, or about a 25% loss in dollars from the previous contract. The risk of decline was suddenly a lot less speculative.

 

Rizzo’s WAR in 2021 is actually comparable to his WAR last year, but his bat has bounced back significantly, to the tune of a 124 wRC+. The difference is in defense, but there are reasons to think our WAR could be underrating him; his DRS is still positive, and via Statcast’s Outs Above Average, he’s leading the league at first base.

 

Rizzo’s done enough that, at least in the projections, he’s clawed his way back by about $12 million over a four-year contract, or slightly more than half his 2020 loss. The power output hasn’t yet been significant, but he’s improved his discipline at the plate, which has partially compensated; Rizzo’s swinging at fewer bad pitches and more good ones.

 

He's been fairly horsefeathers the last month, but he's still probably still at ~4/70 based on the numbers. I'd give it to him. I think his back issues are more concerning than a computer will properly account for, but I'd balance that out with all the team captain warm and fuzzy stuff in my mental ledger.

[minnesotacubsfan]

get Riz a solid acupuncturist, back pain gone

 

(as long as its not a structural injury)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

FWIW, as of about a month ago projections thought he was worth an extension

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cubs-big-three-is-back/

 

After 2020, ZiPS no longer thought a five-year deal as likely, instead seeing a four-year, $65 million deal as the sweet spot, a loss of $22 million for Rizzo, or about a 25% loss in dollars from the previous contract. The risk of decline was suddenly a lot less speculative.

 

Rizzo’s WAR in 2021 is actually comparable to his WAR last year, but his bat has bounced back significantly, to the tune of a 124 wRC+. The difference is in defense, but there are reasons to think our WAR could be underrating him; his DRS is still positive, and via Statcast’s Outs Above Average, he’s leading the league at first base.

 

Rizzo’s done enough that, at least in the projections, he’s clawed his way back by about $12 million over a four-year contract, or slightly more than half his 2020 loss. The power output hasn’t yet been significant, but he’s improved his discipline at the plate, which has partially compensated; Rizzo’s swinging at fewer bad pitches and more good ones.

 

He's been fairly horsefeathers the last month, but he's still probably still at ~4/70 based on the numbers. I'd give it to him. I think his back issues are more concerning than a computer will properly account for, but I'd balance that out with all the team captain warm and fuzzy stuff in my mental ledger.

 

I have to think they aren't handling aging curves for the position very well. Here's 1B qualifying seasons age 34 and older the past 5 complete years: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2020&month=0&season1=2015&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=34,40&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

 

3 of 16 reached 2 fWAR, one of those was Yuli Gurriel playing 1/3 of his games at 3B, and another was Joe Mauer riding a career high UZR to 2.3 fWAR. The other was Votto's final good season. There's a lot of 'this guy can hit' types in this list too, Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez, Carlos Santana, latter day Votto, it's just a really uphill battle at that age, and any Rizzo extension has him hit 34 in year 2.

[stitchface]

no thanks to extending the 32 year old 1b with chronic low back problems that hasn't OPS'ed over .800 in two seasons.

great. but still trade him.

[NOLA]

=D>

[Bertz]

 

Alec Mills is included, if you want to feel better about his performance since he got off the IL and how sustainable it is

 

This one is weird. Every single one of Mills’ pitches has a better Stuff+ in June and July than it did in April and May, but the why is not so clear. Let’s just take one feature, vertical movement, and you’ll see that no clear story emerges for any one pitch.

 

There is one thing that you might notice, though: consistency. Look at how erratic the movement on his pitches was early in the season, and then how he’s smoothed that out since. His Command+ was nearly average early on, and is now up to 108, too. He’s somehow just … settled in. Now look at his stuff in the last two months:

 

So above-average command, with two out-pitches that he’s throwing more, an average sinker and two more usable pitches? Alec Mills needs to be on your radar.

[champaignchris]

 

Alec Mills is included, if you want to feel better about his performance since he got off the IL and how sustainable it is

 

This one is weird. Every single one of Mills’ pitches has a better Stuff+ in June and July than it did in April and May, but the why is not so clear. Let’s just take one feature, vertical movement, and you’ll see that no clear story emerges for any one pitch.

 

There is one thing that you might notice, though: consistency. Look at how erratic the movement on his pitches was early in the season, and then how he’s smoothed that out since. His Command+ was nearly average early on, and is now up to 108, too. He’s somehow just … settled in. Now look at his stuff in the last two months:

 

So above-average command, with two out-pitches that he’s throwing more, an average sinker and two more usable pitches? Alec Mills needs to be on your radar.

 

Earlier in the year he came out of the pen and more recently he’s been a starter. He’s always performed better as a starter than out of the pen through his entire career.

 

Could it simply be that he’s more comfortable as a starter? Whether it be routine, how he warms up, how he prepares for the batters he’ll face, whatever, there could be all sorts of reasons why he’s a better pitcher as a starter.

[jersey cubs fan]

[squally1313]

Darvish’s average fb velocity is down at least a full tick, FIP is up a run, Ks down a couple %, BBs up a tick, GBs down 10%, flyballs up 16-17%, fewer swinging strikes, fewer called strikes, more contact in general...There’s two more years on his deal

Sure, but he went from being a top 3 pitcher in baseball to a top 15 pitcher. At 2/39, that's still plenty valuable.

[Bertz]

[squally1313]

^^^ Niiiice,

 

———

 

The point is less that Darvish secretly isn’t good or not valuable - I’m not counting those pennies for the Ricketts so his salary isn’t what I care about - and more that getting out early is easier than getting out late. We’re talking dropoffs across the board on a soon to be 35 YO pitcher with an arm surgery and multiple IL trips for the forearm/elbow and now a hip issue in the past few years

 

I’m pro Darvish getting robbed of the CY last year (and for some dark reasons for both he and Cubs), but outside of this latest meta where everyone is only the last thing that happened it is a rough argument he was ever really really a top 3 MLB SP for a meaningful amount of time. The way Preciado’s looking, I don’t see how the Cubs would get a better prospect moving him later than they did

 

Well you can't have it both ways. If he's not really a top 3 pitcher, which, fine, that means his numbers aren't really dropping off, right? He's just settling back to what you thought he was/is, which is still valuable?

 

Maybe we don't get a Preciado, but maybe a Darvish in the rotation means less time the offense spends watching some garbage pitcher get knocked around and then have to chase leads, or a bullpen that isn't exhausted by July. But, whatever, all in the past at this point.

[stitchface]

 

Alec Mills is included, if you want to feel better about his performance since he got off the IL and how sustainable it is

 

This one is weird. Every single one of Mills’ pitches has a better Stuff+ in June and July than it did in April and May, but the why is not so clear. Let’s just take one feature, vertical movement, and you’ll see that no clear story emerges for any one pitch.

 

There is one thing that you might notice, though: consistency. Look at how erratic the movement on his pitches was early in the season, and then how he’s smoothed that out since. His Command+ was nearly average early on, and is now up to 108, too. He’s somehow just … settled in. Now look at his stuff in the last two months:

 

So above-average command, with two out-pitches that he’s throwing more, an average sinker and two more usable pitches? Alec Mills needs to be on your radar.

 

Earlier in the year he came out of the pen and more recently he’s been a starter. He’s always performed better as a starter than out of the pen through his entire career.

 

Could it simply be that he’s more comfortable as a starter? Whether it be routine, how he warms up, how he prepares for the batters he’ll face, whatever, there could be all sorts of reasons why he’s a better pitcher as a starter.

 

more repetitions=better command?

[Backtobanks]

Well you can't have it both ways. If he's not really a top 3 pitcher, which, fine, that means his numbers aren't really dropping off, right? He's just settling back to what you thought he was/is, which is still valuable?

 

Maybe we don't get a Preciado, but maybe a Darvish in the rotation means less time the offense spends watching some garbage pitcher get knocked around and then have to chase leads, or a bullpen that isn't exhausted by July. But, whatever, all in the past at this point.

 

Yeah but again, the argument is not that Yu Darvish is not valuable. It's not exact but way less nebulous than that: Yu Darvish is worse than last year, true pretty much across the board, with some not easy to ignore recent arm injury history, has alot of innings on an arm that will turn 37 in his final year under contract, that's probably not the greatest sign moving forward, and the Cubs probably got a really good prospect out of that deal in Preciado they wouldn't moving Darvish at a later date

 

If we're still doing the thing where the Cubs totally lost the division in June/July then a diminished from 2020 Yu Darvish, and probably 2020 Darvish, was never going to move the needle enough to change that. So far the prospects traded for MLers have been role players or worse, so keeping Darvish just means losing the division maybe in the 2nd week of July instead of the 1st to this same dominant Brewers squad and getting a worse trade out of the situation. For sure no one in baseball would be hand waving away going from 96 MPH to 94 MPH with more walks, fewer Ks, more HRs, turning 35 next month, 7 yeas removed from TJ, so on so forth if he were available this July rather than last winter

 

The Cubs did get what looks like a really good prospect in the deal, but he's facing pitchers barely out of high school. Who knows what we could get for Darvish right now at the deadline, but I'm sure we could have gotten something pretty good. Darvish would be owed about $8.8 m for the rest of this year. If we threw in the $5+ million that we have paid Davies, Darvish would look mighty attractive to pitching desperate contenders.

[UMFan83]

 

This is awesome. Right in front of PTR too

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

^^^ Niiiice,

 

———

 

The point is less that Darvish secretly isn’t good or not valuable - I’m not counting those pennies for the Ricketts so his salary isn’t what I care about - and more that getting out early is easier than getting out late. We’re talking dropoffs across the board on a soon to be 35 YO pitcher with an arm surgery and multiple IL trips for the forearm/elbow and now a hip issue in the past few years

 

I’m pro Darvish getting robbed of the CY last year (and for some dark reasons for both he and Cubs), but outside of this latest meta where everyone is only the last thing that happened it is a rough argument he was ever really really a top 3 MLB SP for a meaningful amount of time. The way Preciado’s looking, I don’t see how the Cubs would get a better prospect moving him later than they did

 

Well you can't have it both ways. If he's not really a top 3 pitcher, which, fine, that means his numbers aren't really dropping off, right? He's just settling back to what you thought he was/is, which is still valuable?

 

Maybe we don't get a Preciado, but maybe a Darvish in the rotation means less time the offense spends watching some garbage pitcher get knocked around and then have to chase leads, or a bullpen that isn't exhausted by July. But, whatever, all in the past at this point.

Can you guys please stop responding to this guy so I don't have to see the non-sense he's posting?

[Proven Veteran]

^^^ Niiiice,

 

———

 

The point is less that Darvish secretly isn’t good or not valuable - I’m not counting those pennies for the Ricketts so his salary isn’t what I care about - and more that getting out early is easier than getting out late. We’re talking dropoffs across the board on a soon to be 35 YO pitcher with an arm surgery and multiple IL trips for the forearm/elbow and now a hip issue in the past few years

 

I’m pro Darvish getting robbed of the CY last year (and for some dark reasons for both he and Cubs), but outside of this latest meta where everyone is only the last thing that happened it is a rough argument he was ever really really a top 3 MLB SP for a meaningful amount of time. The way Preciado’s looking, I don’t see how the Cubs would get a better prospect moving him later than they did

 

Well you can't have it both ways. If he's not really a top 3 pitcher, which, fine, that means his numbers aren't really dropping off, right? He's just settling back to what you thought he was/is, which is still valuable?

 

Maybe we don't get a Preciado, but maybe a Darvish in the rotation means less time the offense spends watching some garbage pitcher get knocked around and then have to chase leads, or a bullpen that isn't exhausted by July. But, whatever, all in the past at this point.

Can you guys please stop responding to this guy so I don't have to see the non-sense he's posting?

 

He's still workshopping the script changes.

[PackLandVA]

Benn impressed this year with Keegan Thompson. Has been really good. Does he project as a starter next year? If not, when? And if so, he's clearly a 3-5 type, right? Does he have the stuff to be a 3 or maybe one day better?

[Bertz]

Benn impressed this year with Keegan Thompson. Has been really good. Does he project as a starter next year? If not, when? And if so, he's clearly a 3-5 type, right? Does he have the stuff to be a 3 or maybe one day better?

 

 

Looks like he will be a starter in the next few weeks. I'm definitely interested to see how he does, same with Steele.

[Gilby]

Will be fascinated to watch Steele start. If he (or Thompson for that matter, though it feels like there's more upside w Steele) look like a good Major League starter, the path to contention next year becomes a lot easier for me to envision.