General Cubs Chit-Chat

[BigSlick]

 

I don't care if they are good. They aren't winning the World Series good and if you aren't going to sign Baez or Bryant or Rizzo, trade them all with Kimbrel before July 1. There is good regular season baseball and there is good playoff baseball. Just like when the Cubs beat up on the Mets in 2015 and got hammered in the playoffs because the Mets have better starting pitching.

 

I thought we’ve all learned this isn’t a thing. Didn’t we all learn it wasn’t a thing like 15 years ago? Make the playoffs and take a spin on the Playoff Roulette wheel.

 

Of course it could happen. But the chances are slim with a weak rotation that doesn’t throw hard. If you plan on signing the core, go all in. If you aren’t, continue the rebuild and acquire prospects.

 

The chances are slim if you’re the undisputed best team in the league. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Take as many swings at the piñata that you can get.

[CubinNY]

The post-season tournament in baseball is so unlike the regular season, probably more so than any of the other professional sports. A team can win the WS with two hot pitchers and a little positive variance. Obviously, a stacked team might have better odds of winning, but a Cubs team with Scherzer and Hendricks pitching to their capacity can beat a better team on paper in a seven-game series.

[squally1313]

The post-season tournament in baseball is so unlike the regular season, probably more so than any of the other professional sports. A team can win the WS with two hot pitchers and a little positive variance. Obviously, a stacked team might have better odds of winning, but a Cubs team with Scherzer and Hendricks pitching to their capacity can beat a better team on paper in a seven-game series.

Plus we're in an era where really only the top handful of pitchers in baseball should be going more than twice through a line up. I have no idea if our bullpen will stay elite, probably not given the name recognition outside of Kimbrel, but if you're evaluating the team as it stands now, we basically just need our starters to give us 5 solid innings, which Hendricks is more than capable of, Azlolay has shown a lot of potential, Davies has had a great 6 weeks, pick up a starter, tell Jake to throw 96 for 50 pitches, etc, etc, etc. By the time we get to August/September we could have a few more high velocity arms ready to shut down the middle innings and turn it over to the back end. It's not the team we're used to, for sure, but we're here, take the shot.

[Wilson A2000]

Luckily, Hoyer won't be forced to make a dumb decision and try to win with this team. By the trading deadline, no one will be clamoring for three starters and the two outfielders needed to make this team a real contender.

[champaignchris]

Heading into tonight’s game the Cubs were BABIPing .218 in June. And that number didn’t go up tonight. Easily the worst in MLB by more than .040 lower than the second worse team, StL.

 

What to make of that? Team-wide bad luck?

[squally1313]

Heading into tonight’s game the Cubs were BABIPing .218 in June. And that number didn’t go up tonight. Easily the worst in MLB by more than .040 lower than the second worse team, StL.

 

What to make of that? Team-wide bad luck?

 

Well, per FG, we have the lowest line drive rate, 5th highest FB rate, and 9th highest infield fly ball rate. We also, concerningly, have the highest HR/FB rate, which hurts BABIP as well. 13th in average exit velocity and 9th in barrel %, so that doesn't really support it, but everything else would lead you to conclude we should be near the bottom based on batted ball profile. Bottom by 40 points is obviously a little unlucky and will turn around. But with the highest K rate in the league by almost 2 points, we're going to have less balls in play and our results are more likely to be fluky in a small sample.

[Backtobanks]

Heading into tonight’s game the Cubs were BABIPing .218 in June. And that number didn’t go up tonight. Easily the worst in MLB by more than .040 lower than the second worse team, StL.

 

What to make of that? Team-wide bad luck?

 

Well, per FG, we have the lowest line drive rate, 5th highest FB rate, and 9th highest infield fly ball rate. We also, concerningly, have the highest HR/FB rate, which hurts BABIP as well. 13th in average exit velocity and 9th in barrel %, so that doesn't really support it, but everything else would lead you to conclude we should be near the bottom based on batted ball profile. Bottom by 40 points is obviously a little unlucky and will turn around. But with the highest K rate in the league by almost 2 points, we're going to have less balls in play and our results are more likely to be fluky in a small sample.

 

What did we really expect when PTR and Hoyer conspired to add the likes of Sogard, Alcantra, Ortega, Wolters, Higgins, Lobaton, Vargas, Romine, etc. to a team with a serious hit-or-miss offense to start with.

[Bertz]

The Cubs played like 90% done with their tough out of division games in May and June, especially June. They have home and away against the Sox, the Giants at Wrigley, and the always tough @Coors series. That's it unless the Twins or Phillies get their horsefeathers together.

 

The Brewers have a fairly easy schedule themselves, but they've got 7 tough series remaining, plus those same Twins/Phillies games and a comparable series against the Braves. They do have a few additional Pirates/Tigers games remaining though.

 

All that said, these next three games are about as lopsided as they can be. If we get swept and end up 6 back, it's really hard to hang your hat on a marginally easier remaining schedule. Hell, even if we lose 2/3 and end up "only" 4 back.

[Outshined_One]

What even are the expectations for going with the sale “strategy” anyway? Anyone thinking there’s a hero trade that will stand and fight with a British accent to save 2028 or however it’s supposed to work? It ain’t coming guys!

 

I'm kind of tempted to see if the Cubs could somehow pull off a hybrid strategy, where they sell off bullpen pieces and try to acquire guys who'll be around in 2022/2023 for the rotation. The pen has been ridiculously good, but I have zero idea how long this is going to last and I'm always leery of injuries when it comes to this sort of use. However, the Cubs also seem to have some promising bullpen depth at higher levels of the minors who could get called up and succeed. If someone's willing to offer a high level prospect for Kimbrel, a pretty good prospect for Tepera, or slightly warmed over corpse for Brothers, I'd be interested in that deal.

 

Conversely, the rotation is butt and looks to remain as such for the foreseeable future without a meaningful trade.

[Backtobanks]

Some "cheap" players that should be readily available that would help the team now are Gray, Pineda, Grossman, and Asdrubal Cabrera.

[muntjack]

Sogard has barreled the ball 8 times. In his career.

 

For comparison Albert Almora has 27 barrels in fewer PAs.

 

Yet there he is, in the lineup again tonight. Is he a defensive wizard? No. Is he young and projectable? No. Is he vaccinated? No. Why the horsefeathers is he on this team?

[squally1313]

Sogard has barreled the ball 8 times. In his career.

 

For comparison Albert Almora has 27 barrels in fewer PAs.

 

Yet there he is, in the lineup again tonight. Is he a defensive wizard? No. Is he young and projectable? No. Is he vaccinated? No. Why the horsefeathers is he on this team?

18.1% K rate, which is much higher than his career rate (13.8%) and still comfortably below the team rate (26.6%). Against these Peralta/Burnes/Woodruff, unfortunately with our options and their skill you have to hope you get a little bit of BABIP luck. More confused by Lobaton, tough to give Contreras a night off with Rizzo already down, but also Contreras has been ground down to nothing a few different seasons now, so it is what it is. Find a competent backup catcher.

 

All that being said, Sogard is a garbage human and should be gone yesterday.

[Rex Buckingham]

happier times...

 

[Sammy Sofa]

[Andy]

happier times...

 

Someone posted that week - because that game capped what was a 6 or 7-game winning streak with a couple of wild wins - that "this week has been a Cubs orgy", and that always stuck with me.

[Derwood]

Run differential down to +7

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

I remember thinking that team was way cool and amazing, and then I see Howry and Fontenot and Pie in the scrum, and I wonder if I was just wrong.

[jersey cubs fan]

I remember thinking that team was way cool and amazing, and then I see Howry and Fontenot and Pie in the scrum, and I wonder if I was just wrong.

They went from 66 wins to 85 wins, so on a relative scale they were cool and amazing. But they weren't good until the following season.

 

And Mike Fontenot was a perfectly cromulent contributor.

[d_money]

I remember thinking that team was way cool and amazing, and then I see Howry and Fontenot and Pie in the scrum, and I wonder if I was just wrong.

They went from 66 wins to 85 wins, so on a relative scale they were cool and amazing. But they weren't good until the following season.

 

And Mike Fontenot was a perfectly cromulent contributor.

The French Connection…Fontenot + Theriot.

[Sammy Sofa]

I remember thinking that team was way cool and amazing, and then I see Howry and Fontenot and Pie in the scrum, and I wonder if I was just wrong.

They went from 66 wins to 85 wins, so on a relative scale they were cool and amazing. But they weren't good until the following season.

 

And Mike Fontenot was a perfectly cromulent contributor.

 

2007 was also one of Howry's kick ass seasons as a Cub.

[Outshined_One]

The 2007/2008 team was so much more enjoyable than the 2003/2004 team for me. I mean, yeah, the 2003/2004 team had higher highs, but at least the 2007/2008 team didn't have anywhere near as many heart-breaking low points.

[Andy]

The 2007/2008 team was so much more enjoyable than the 2003/2004 team for me. I mean, yeah, the 2003/2004 team had higher highs, but at least the 2007/2008 team didn't have anywhere near as many heart-breaking low points.

We've talked about it here before, but until the 15 playoffs and then 16 came around, I never thought it could get much better than the 08 team. That team just came through over and over, and seemed invincible until they face-planted against LA.

[d_money]

Kimbral can bring the biggest return with 1 1/2 years left on the deal and I fully anticipate him being moved. It sucks - he’s been dominant and fun to watch but he doesn’t deserve to be on this team.

 

It was a different time but in 2016 the Cubs traded Gleybor for a half season of Chapman. Let’s hope the return for Kimbral will be equal/more.

[d_money]

Gleyber Torres isn’t so hot so hopefully they would do alot better

Quick glance, I see he’s at .247 and no power.

[CubinNY]

The Ricketts are smiling big smiles today.