What's your wish list for the trade deadline?

[jersey cubs fan]

I would a million times over rather pay for extra years at similar financial cost(in seasons where we're supposed to be McDucking in TV money, no less) for a FA like Price or Zimmermann or even Samardzija than pay the player cost it will supposedly require to earn the right to pay Cole Hamels 25 million for his age 32-35 seasons. If we have to bite the bullet and pay for decline, let's only pay once in dollars.

except it's not just a choice you get to make

 

Well there's a bit of strength in numbers on the FA side, plus those aren't the only two options for adding rotation help to an already good rotation.

 

The short version of my point is that Cole Hamels killed my parents and I hate his old stupid face.

 

I am sorry for your loss.

[Guest]

Having a high quality arm from 32-35 beats the hell out of having a high quality arm from 31-37/38 at a higher dollar cost, which Price will undoubtedly have tied to him. Not to mention that signing Price means they've not got two mega deals on the roster through the early 2020s, both to 30+ pitchers that combined could cost as much as 60 million a year.

 

Ew Zimmermann, hard pass unless he's the guy who gets squeezed out this FA. Love the makeup, terrified of his arm's health under a FA deal.

 

The players it requires to trade for Hamels are more scarce than money should be for the Cubs from 2019-2022. The Phillies are welcome to draw a hard line on Hamels' cost/picking up part of his deal, but the reason he hasn't been dealt yet is that the teams that can afford to pay Cole Hamels 25 million are more comfortable paying Jon Lester and Max Scherzer similar money for longer years rather than paying a player ransom on top of it. As a sidebar, The Red Sox are an easy target for this hard line among some prospect hipsters(and with merit because Cherington is increasingly being exposed there), but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

I'm also very skeptical that Hamels' age 32-35 years are worth his salary alone never mind the player cost, but that applies in smaller proportion to the FAs too so I'll set that part of my distaste for Hamels aside.

[davell]

The FO knows whether or not they'll have the money to make a serious run at Price(or a Heyward with a guy like Lackey attached). If they don't have the ability to add that 100+mill contract in the offseason-that's when Hamels becomes more of an option in my mind. It's asinine if we need them to contribute a bit of salary, but if that does wind up being the case, the true objective is adding the best SP you can and for more than just this season.

 

It's definitely possible that that's him and now is the time to do it, if Amaro/Gillick/MacPhail wind up being remotely reasonable THIS deadline. And I've got serious doubt as far as that goes.

[Guest]

The FO knows whether or not they'll have the money to make a serious run at Price(or a Heyward with a guy like Lackey attached). If they don't have the ability to add that 100+mill contract in the offseason-that's when Hamels becomes more of an option in my mind. It's asinine if we need them to contribute a bit of salary, but if that does wind up being the case, the true objective is adding the best SP you can and for more than just this season.

 

It's definitely possible that that's him and now is the time to do it, if Amaro/Gillick/MacPhail wind up being remotely reasonable THIS deadline. And I've got serious doubt as far as that goes.

 

If they can afford Hamels' deal, they can afford a FA's deal. The AAV difference between them is negligible in terms of hitting spending limits.

[davell]

We don't truly know that though. We don't know if it's a per year calculation or a complete contractual outlay that the debt structure is calculated by.

[Guest]

AndrewMarchand

Wait, I just read that it's been reported the Mets don't want to pay Zobrist's remaining $3M. God Bless, Met fans. #Wilponzis

[Post Count Padder]

Just throwing out there, what would packages look like for:

 

-Tyson Ross/Wil Venable

-Cespedes/Anibal Sanchez

-Kazmir/Zobrist/Reddick

-Carlos Gomez/Mike Friers

 

 

I like the idea of some one-stop shopping for our needs.

[davell]

For Ross/Venable, I was thinking one of Torres or McKinney, Alcantara, Villanueva, Underwood or CJ and one of Sands/Steele....Too much or too light?

[toonsterwu]

For Ross/Venable, I was thinking one of Torres or McKinney, Alcantara, Villanueva, Underwood or CJ and one of Sands/Steele....Too much or too light?

 

I think, with Torres, that's probably a touch too much value wise (although if it becomes a strong seller's market ... could I see something of that value happening for Ross? Perhaps). Torres is fine as the centerpiece, and the type of kid Preller would love, but 2 of Underwood/CJ/Sands/Steele, plus Alcantara and Villanueva? Tyson Ross has what, 2 years of arb left? I tend to think, from a value perspective, McKinney is a notch below Torres, and as such, if it's McKinney as the centerpiece, that might be borderline okay value wise. I don't think I'd love either deal, but that's more because I'm still of the feeling that we could get an impending FA arm at a lower player cost and sign a FA in the winter, and still be in a strong position for the wildcard spot.

 

_____

 

Such a hard market to gauge, as a strong run for any number of teams and they could change their opinions on selling. Really, only two teams are dead in the water, and that's the Marlins and Phillies. A strong run from any number of teams right now could change their perspective on the trade deadline. For example, if the Orioles get swept by the Yankees and fall to around 6-8 games back in the wild card, it would not surprise me if they opted to sell, despite current rumors. The lack of a strong farm, plus the number of impending FA's, could lead them that way, despite the fact that a ton of Orioles fans still feel like they could be the best team in the division. Secretly, I'm still sort of hoping the Orioles fall out, as I think it's best for them, and I think they could provide some quality options for the Cubs at a cheaper price. I mean, the Mariners should sell, but Zduriencik is probably pinned to the wall in terms of his future and probably won't. Wouldn't surprise me if there end up being some creative trades that don't necessarily follow the buyers/sellers markers.

 

______

 

As for Hamels, assuming we don't move any current MLB player (including Schwarber), I'm not necessarily convinced we have enough just from the farm system to make a deal, particularly with Baez out. I mean, Torres/McKinney is a good package, and if it's Torres/McKinney and change, you have to consider it, much as I love Torres, but even if the price comes down, it seems quite likely that they should be able to find at least a comparable package out there, if not slightly better (although the counter argument could be that a prospect like Torres might be the best they can get, ceiling wise). I'd still rather avoid Hamels and go after an impending FA starter in a trade and sign a FA in the winter.

 

The Cubs should make a deal. There's simply enough assets in the upper levels sitting around that likely won't factor in our future that even if it's only for secondary pieces, you make the move to make a push now, and show two of the best players in the game that you are making that push. I still would be fine if we added something like Ryan Raburn (or even the Orioles Steve Pearce, who has lost a ton of PT with his offensive struggles but is still a decent utility option), a pen arm, and a mid-rotation-ish starter. Even if they aren't big names, that should be enough to give us a push this year without sacrificing too many assets.

[Guest]

The players it requires to trade for Hamels are more scarce than money should be for the Cubs from 2019-2022. The Phillies are welcome to draw a hard line on Hamels' cost/picking up part of his deal, but the reason he hasn't been dealt yet is that the teams that can afford to pay Cole Hamels 25 million are more comfortable paying Jon Lester and Max Scherzer similar money for longer years rather than paying a player ransom on top of it. As a sidebar, The Red Sox are an easy target for this hard line among some prospect hipsters(and with merit because Cherington is increasingly being exposed there), but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

I'm also very skeptical that Hamels' age 32-35 years are worth his salary alone never mind the player cost, but that applies in smaller proportion to the FAs too so I'll set that part of my distaste for Hamels aside.

 

That first line is key for me. That they are more scarce means the Cubs should not use them frivolously for rentals on just this one playoff run. This roster isn't so good that they can do that yet, and they can't afford to fill all their holes with FAs. That he's the best ML player the prospects can bring back, and he is of what's available, and that his deal ends just as they can take their rightful place as a big market monster is a huge deal in his favor.

 

As far as beyond 2015 - the expanded repertoire and lack of surgery in his past are two things that should work very well for him moving forward. That more of his pitches get swings and misses *and* ground balls are a great sign for his future, as is the velocity gain last year that has held.

 

Edit: Sorry, the edit was for a misspelling.

 

To be clear, I'm not advocating throwing a bunch of trade assets at a rental like Cueto or Price. If someone like Gray or Quintana or if I'm feeling generous, Ross isn't available, then my preference is to think smaller. Your Kazmirs, your Kennedys, your Latoses. If they wanted to gamble on a buy low guy with multiple years of team control that'd be worthwhile too. That's largely a scouting call and I still can't tell who is selling so I don't have any great suggestions there(maybe Chad Bettis if he were healthy?), but I couldn't have picked Arrieta as a target either.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

Like when we shopped Garza and Samardzija for three months each then politely accepted the best offer on the table.

[Felix Leiter]

Not many buy low arms I'm really interested right now, but who am I lol. Anyway it is a short list of guys who have not been cut open, have struggled, but have carried top notch scouting reports throughout the pros. Daniel Norris/Taijuran Walker/Kevin Gausman/Jon Gray/Tyler Beede/Mark Appel...Maybe I'm forgetting a couple, but anyway not sure any one of those guys would actually be available for anything but a ML player at the deadline. I threw out the whole selling Hammel to the Blue Jays thing to kick around at some point. I think that is the kind of trade that would get you one of those buy low arms worth having. Would much rather deal from prospects, which the Cubs have way more of....Otoh, I'm most definitely talking out of my ass.

 

I like Gray, would definitely prefer his youth and contract situation to Hamels. Hard pass on Ross. Quintana is basically unavailable Hamels - 92-95 lefty, 90-91 on the cutter, ~80 MPH curve, and 85 MPH changeup - same thing but 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds heavier. He'd be great too, but is probably not actually available anytime soon.

 

Disagree. The WSox can't run out all their LH starters and win. They need catching, middle infield and CF. We seem to have available players they could use.

[Backtobanks]

Not many buy low arms I'm really interested right now, but who am I lol. Anyway it is a short list of guys who have not been cut open, have struggled, but have carried top notch scouting reports throughout the pros. Daniel Norris/Taijuran Walker/Kevin Gausman/Jon Gray/Tyler Beede/Mark Appel...Maybe I'm forgetting a couple, but anyway not sure any one of those guys would actually be available for anything but a ML player at the deadline. I threw out the whole selling Hammel to the Blue Jays thing to kick around at some point. I think that is the kind of trade that would get you one of those buy low arms worth having. Would much rather deal from prospects, which the Cubs have way more of....Otoh, I'm most definitely talking out of my ass.

 

I like Gray, would definitely prefer his youth and contract situation to Hamels. Hard pass on Ross. Quintana is basically unavailable Hamels - 92-95 lefty, 90-91 on the cutter, ~80 MPH curve, and 85 MPH changeup - same thing but 2 inches shorter and 20 pounds heavier. He'd be great too, but is probably not actually available anytime soon.

 

Disagree. The WSox can't run out all their LH starters and win. They need catching, middle infield and CF. We seem to have available players they could use.

 

Yeah, Quintana would be exactly what we need. It would certainly be worth a phone call to see if there's any possibility and ask what the price would be.

[Guest]

but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

Like when we shopped Garza and Samardzija for three months each then politely accepted the best offer on the table.

 

Yes, this is exactly like those situations.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

Like when we shopped Garza and Samardzija for three months each then politely accepted the best offer on the table.

 

Yes, this is exactly like those situations.

 

It actually is, but that isn't as much fun as "lol Phillies are dumb" memes. Not that they aren't dumb, but holding a high line on trade demands has a lot of precedent with smarter front offices.

[Guest]

but when you can't find a single taker in 12 months at your price the problem is more in Philadelphia than everyone else.

 

Like when we shopped Garza and Samardzija for three months each then politely accepted the best offer on the table.

 

Yes, this is exactly like those situations.

 

It actually is, but that isn't as much fun as "lol Phillies are dumb" memes. Not that they aren't dumb, but holding a high line on trade demands has a lot of precedent with smarter front offices.

 

For both Garza and Samardzija, there was at least the chance that the team wanted to extend them, given their age and performance. It wasn't overly likely at different points in time but it was always a reasonable alternative. The alternative here is that the Phillies say 'screw you guys' and try to rebuild with Hamels and get to enjoy him as a 25 million dollar averagish pitcher when they're able to compete again(and this is the optimistic scenario). Maintaining the option to keep/extend a 27-28 year old pitcher approaching free agency is not the same as refusing to come down from your asking price to make sure you get some value for a 32 year old starter on an expensive 4 year deal.

[Guest]

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[Guest]

Not many buy low arms I'm really interested right now, but who am I lol. Anyway it is a short list of guys who have not been cut open, have struggled, but have carried top notch scouting reports throughout the pros. Daniel Norris/Taijuran Walker/Kevin Gausman/Jon Gray/Tyler Beede/Mark Appel...Maybe I'm forgetting a couple, but anyway not sure any one of those guys would actually be available for anything but a ML player at the deadline. I threw out the whole selling Hammel to the Blue Jays thing to kick around at some point. I think that is the kind of trade that would get you one of those buy low arms worth having. Would much rather deal from prospects, which the Cubs have way more of....Otoh, I'm most definitely talking out of my ass.

 

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Trading for Gausman and fixing him would be awesome, but at that point I'd almost feel bad for so thoroughly taking advantage of the Orioles. I don't know if we match up all that well with them though.

[toonsterwu]

I can definitely understand the Phillies being lukewarm on a Castro/Baez led package (especially since JP Crawford could be ready at some point in 2016), but I've got to think that we're probably 5th on that totem pole as a result, since it's hard to imagine that any of the prospects would be untouchable (I mean, if they're offering Castro/Baez ... I doubt they would hold Underwood off the table if that's what it takes to get it done). Now, I guess it's quite possible the Cubs are holding back say, Gleyber Torres perhaps, and perhaps that swings things. Realistically, the fit isn't great for both clubs, and I'm fine with missing on Hamels. I've got to think MacPhail will allow a deal to go through if it's a solid deal, since the number of FA's this winter may make it hard for them to get their price. Gotta think LA is the huge favorite here.

 

As for finding under-the-radar arms, guys like Arrieta, well, keep in mind that when Arrieta came over the Orioles were exasperated with him even though he was having a ton of bad luck and really looked like he was putting it together. Arrieta had far more opportunities than guys like Appel/Gausman/Beede/Norris and so forth have had, and I'd be surprised if any of those arms were traded, but I guess I could imagine Norris and Beede moreso than the others. Beede seems eh to me based on current reports. I don't see the Orioles moving Gausman unless it's for a controllable arm (and I have some doubts that Gausman's breaking ball will ever get good enough to become a top starter, although that would obviously be a fun Bosio project to follow).

 

I really don't see the Cubs going after really under-the-radar guy, and I don't see them swinging a deal for a top prospect young arm (more because I doubt there is a really good match with a club as obviously a young controllable top prospect arm would be fine). Thinking along the Arrieta profile, and I doubt they would have much interest in him, but if you wanted an under-the-radar name that hasn't had the opportunity ... someone like Anthony Ranaudo would seem to fit an Arrieta-ish profile, a guy who still, by most accounts, has two plus pitches, but hasn't put it together. Yordano Ventura fits that Arrieta-ish profile, guy with some bad luck, top stuff, but I don't see the Royals dealing him this year unless it really shores up their chances to make a run (say, it gets them a better starter and helps in other areas). A part of me wondered earlier in the year if Boston would move Wade Miley if they got other pitchers (say Hamels), but he's pitched well since that horrible start. Chris Tillman would sort of fit that profile as well but I don't see them going that route (or I sort of don't want them to).

[toonsterwu]

Not many buy low arms I'm really interested right now, but who am I lol. Anyway it is a short list of guys who have not been cut open, have struggled, but have carried top notch scouting reports throughout the pros. Daniel Norris/Taijuran Walker/Kevin Gausman/Jon Gray/Tyler Beede/Mark Appel...Maybe I'm forgetting a couple, but anyway not sure any one of those guys would actually be available for anything but a ML player at the deadline. I threw out the whole selling Hammel to the Blue Jays thing to kick around at some point. I think that is the kind of trade that would get you one of those buy low arms worth having. Would much rather deal from prospects, which the Cubs have way more of....Otoh, I'm most definitely talking out of my ass.

 

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Trading for Gausman and fixing him would be awesome, but at that point I'd almost feel bad for so thoroughly taking advantage of the Orioles. I don't know if we match up all that well with them though.

 

I just don't see the Gausman fit. In general, I'd be surprised if they dealt Gausman for anything other than a controllable, high level arm that they can control for a few years (basically, using Gausman as a part of a package for a top young starter). Beyond that, their needs don't mesh that well with us. They could look for corner OF, 1st, and maybe C, positionally, but they probably are searching for arms moreso than anything, with Bundy/Harvey dinged up, and Wei-Yin Chen likely on his way out next year (as, barring injury, he should be in line for a big deal).

 

He needs to improve his breaking ball ... but he's been needing to do that since his LSU days. For some guys, it just never happens. Obviously, he's still young enough that you never know, but the biggest issue with the Orioles run for Gausman has been the way he's been jerked around. They have some solid pitching coaches in Baltimore (Dave Wallace being the big league pitching coach), but it's been their plan with Gausman. He was simply rushed too fast when the breaking ball was an issue dating back to college, and then being jerked between the pen/rotation, and majors/minors, didn't help.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Is this video game-esque blockbuster with the Padres at all realistic:

 

Cubs get

J. Upton

Kemp

Shields

 

Padres get:

Soler

Baez

Castro

Coghlan

McKinney

Wood

Edwards

Cash

 

Cubs get some win now help, Padres get a partial bail out of their little experiment and a restock of young players.

[Guest]

jesus christ

[Ding Dong Johnson]

What the...

[Guest]

That may be the worst trade proposal I've ever seen on this site.

[apete6]

Is this video game-esque blockbuster with the Padres at all realistic:

 

Cubs get

J. Upton

Kemp

Shields

 

Padres get:

Soler

Baez

Castro

Coghlan

McKinney

Wood

Edwards

Cash

 

Cubs get some win now help, Padres get a partial bail out of their little experiment and a restock of young players.

 

The Padres get 5 of the 6 most valuable commodities in that trade. So, no, it's not realistic.