Re: What would you deal Garza for?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Which side are you on though re: Garza? If you are on the "trade Garza side" then why would you pay money for Buerhle and get rid of a better pitcher? The gains you made on offense are already minimal because you have to replace Ramirez also, but then you also remain stagnant on a pitching staff that gets rid of its best pitcher (Garza) for a downgrade (Buerhle). That's a team that finishes slightly better than last year, but looks better doing.

 

I'm not him, but I believe this team can contend in 2012 and I'm willing to trade Garza for a big return of 2-3 near MLB ready prospects.

 

Assuming you then spend your $45 million or so on market-value replacements at 1b, 3b and P, I think that hypothetical team is a lot better than last year's. I think last year's underperformed by quite a bit.

[CubColtPacer]

What's left to spend of that $130M isn't enough to buy your way to a WS contender.

 

That's not true at all. Teams do it all the time. I can think of at least 3 teams that have won the World Series in the 00's that got by with less than what the Cubs could go out and get. The Diamondbacks, White Sox and Marlins.

 

Exactly. The rumors we've heard alone would probably be enough to allow this team to contend. There are a lot of available players out there. 1B has been well documented, even if you have to bring back Pena at 1B, it's conceivable that the Cubs could get Headley, a guy like Gio Gonzalez, a young SP from the Rays, there's players that will become available if you get rid of Soriano and later in FA (Beltran). The Cubs would still need a lot to go right to seriously contend, but there are plenty of pieces out there to make it closer to happening.

 

 

I think you're saying kind of the same thing I've said. They don't need to build a team that competes for the WS for 2012, they just need to get better. One or two bigger moves (say Fielder and Buehrle, possibly Darvish/Cespedes) and a few smaller ones (DeJesus, and say Headley) improves this team, to the point that they should, with neutral luck, finish slightly over .500. Another couple of bigger siginings next offseason, and a few small moves, and they should/could be back at the top of the Central by 2013. Looking at the number of teams that have made that kind of improvement, it's not that hard, you just need to have a rough plan in place and follow it.

 

Which side are you on though re: Garza? If you are on the "trade Garza side" then why would you pay money for Buerhle and get rid of a better pitcher? The gains you made on offense are already minimal because you have to replace Ramirez also, but then you also remain stagnant on a pitching staff that gets rid of its best pitcher (Garza) for a downgrade (Buerhle). That's a team that finishes slightly better than last year, but looks better doing.

 

You would think the team will get at least 1 guy that will be in the majors in 2012 for Garza.

 

I would be disappointed if the team traded Garza for all high upside low level guys (unless their haul was just fantastic). But if they traded him to try to fit other parts of the puzzle with an eye on signing free agent pitching in the next year or two? That would be a different story.

[MSG T]

What's left to spend of that $130M isn't enough to buy your way to a WS contender.

 

That's not true at all. Teams do it all the time. I can think of at least 3 teams that have won the World Series in the 00's that got by with less than what the Cubs could go out and get. The Diamondbacks, White Sox and Marlins.

 

Exactly. The rumors we've heard alone would probably be enough to allow this team to contend. There are a lot of available players out there. 1B has been well documented, even if you have to bring back Pena at 1B, it's conceivable that the Cubs could get Headley, a guy like Gio Gonzalez, a young SP from the Rays, there's players that will become available if you get rid of Soriano and later in FA (Beltran). The Cubs would still need a lot to go right to seriously contend, but there are plenty of pieces out there to make it closer to happening.

 

 

I think you're saying kind of the same thing I've said. They don't need to build a team that competes for the WS for 2012, they just need to get better. One or two bigger moves (say Fielder and Buehrle, possibly Darvish/Cespedes) and a few smaller ones (DeJesus, and say Headley) improves this team, to the point that they should, with neutral luck, finish slightly over .500. Another couple of bigger siginings next offseason, and a few small moves, and they should/could be back at the top of the Central by 2013. Looking at the number of teams that have made that kind of improvement, it's not that hard, you just need to have a rough plan in place and follow it.

 

Which side are you on though re: Garza? If you are on the "trade Garza side" then why would you pay money for Buerhle and get rid of a better pitcher? The gains you made on offense are already minimal because you have to replace Ramirez also, but then you also remain stagnant on a pitching staff that gets rid of its best pitcher (Garza) for a downgrade (Buerhle). That's a team that finishes slightly better than last year, but looks better doing.

 

 

I'm on the side of you trade Garza if the deal is too good to refuse, otherwise you keep him. Then, at the deadline next year you listen to offers, if someone blows your socks off, you deal him. If not, you hold onto him and try to work an extension next offseason. He's good enough, and young enough, to build around for the foreseeable future, but holds enough value that it's possible to improve the team, both short and long term, that trading him makes sense... for the right package. But again, it would have to make sense long AND short term.

 

The Buehrle comment was in addition to Garza, not as a replacement. And I was only using him as an example. Heck, if they could get CJ instead, I'd be thrilled.

[pccubfan]

But here's the rub. All the top-line pitchers on the market next year are going to be signed by somebody willing to give them more years than what is wise to give to a pitcher. Because of the position the current team finds itself, in order to compete in the short term, the Cubs are going to have to be willing to extend beyond their comfort zone in contract length for one or two of these guys. I'm ok with that because the value of the front office should be the ability to offset some of these "bad contracts" with cheap guys to offset the contracts by the time they have gone bad. If the front office the Cubs have put in place can't accomplish that then I'm not sure why they are so highly thought of.

[rawaction]

Which side are you on though re: Garza? If you are on the "trade Garza side" then why would you pay money for Buerhle and get rid of a better pitcher? The gains you made on offense are already minimal because you have to replace Ramirez also, but then you also remain stagnant on a pitching staff that gets rid of its best pitcher (Garza) for a downgrade (Buerhle). That's a team that finishes slightly better than last year, but looks better doing.

 

I'm not him, but I believe this team can contend in 2012 and I'm willing to trade Garza for a big return of 2-3 near MLB ready prospects.

 

Assuming you then spend your $45 million or so on market-value replacements at 1b, 3b and P, I think that hypothetical team is a lot better than last year's. I think last year's underperformed by quite a bit.

 

I understand the whole 2-3 near MLB ready prospects, but then why turn around and PAY MORE for another starting pitcher? That makes no sense. Going to have to get a 1B and 3B either way. And if you trade Garza you're either going to (a) get a similar to better pitcher (Wilson) for MUCH more money or (b) get a lesser pitcher (like Buerhle) and make your starting pitching inferior to last season.

 

Throw in the fact that it's going to be hard to upgrade from Pena/Ramirez no matter who you sign or trade for and I don't see the point in getting rid of Garza. Sure Prince would be an upgrade over Pena but even if you get a player like Headley at 3B, then you just equal or barely exceed last year's production.

[MSG T]

Raw, not wanting to stray too far of course, but as for the other parts you mentioned. I really think Headley could come close to replicating what they got from Ramirez last season. He's done that before, and getting out of SD I think he could average 3.5-4.0 WAR for the next few (3-5) years. That's not superstar status, but it's good, solid production. Fielder would be a significant improvement at 1B. Castro and Barney would hopefully be better. I'd see if I could find a cheap replacement for Barney, or wait until next off-season.

 

The OF would be harder, not sure what to do with that mess. See if they can trade Soriano and go with Byrd/BJackson/DeJesus and hope for the best? Move Soto/Marmol for OF help and Byrd for a prospect? Not sure.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The OF would be harder, not sure what to do with that mess. See if they can trade Soriano and go with Byrd/BJackson/DeJesus and hope for the best? Move Soto/Marmol for OF help and Byrd for a prospect? Not sure.

 

Cubs got -1.1 fWAR out of the Fukudome/Colvin collective suckfest. Replace that with DeJesus, have Soriano's BABIP bounceback, and suddenly I think you've gained about 4 WAR in the OF even before Jackson shows up.

[MSG T]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

[jersey cubs fan]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

[MSG T]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

 

 

??

 

I'd expect DeJesus (2.2 WAR) to do what he did last year and Fukudome (-.2 WAR) was way worse than that. A 2.4 WAR difference between the two is significant.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

 

 

??

 

I'd expect DeJesus (2.2 WAR) to do what he did last year and Fukudome (-.2 WAR) was way worse than that. A 2.4 WAR difference between the two is significant.

 

Jersey is going to respond that Fukudome's WAR is dragged down by the RNG that is fielding stats.

[rawaction]

The OF would be harder, not sure what to do with that mess. See if they can trade Soriano and go with Byrd/BJackson/DeJesus and hope for the best? Move Soto/Marmol for OF help and Byrd for a prospect? Not sure.

 

Cubs got -1.1 fWAR out of the Fukudome/Colvin collective suckfest. Replace that with DeJesus, have Soriano's BABIP bounceback, and suddenly I think you've gained about 4 WAR in the OF even before Jackson shows up.

 

Even with that, Prince, and Headley "coming close" to replicating Ramirez, the offense still wouldn't be good enough to sustain a hit from losing Garza from an already below average pitching staff.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The OF would be harder, not sure what to do with that mess. See if they can trade Soriano and go with Byrd/BJackson/DeJesus and hope for the best? Move Soto/Marmol for OF help and Byrd for a prospect? Not sure.

 

Cubs got -1.1 fWAR out of the Fukudome/Colvin collective suckfest. Replace that with DeJesus, have Soriano's BABIP bounceback, and suddenly I think you've gained about 4 WAR in the OF even before Jackson shows up.

 

Even with that, Prince, and Headley "coming close" to replicating Ramirez, the offense still wouldn't be good enough to sustain a hit from losing Garza from an already below average pitching staff.

 

How about we sign a lesser pitcher to replace Garza, then we don't waste Zambrano for the third year in a row. Even assuming we don't get any pitching back in the Garza hypothetical trade, that's already sounding like some improvement.

[treebird]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

 

 

??

 

I'd expect DeJesus (2.2 WAR) to do what he did last year and Fukudome (-.2 WAR) was way worse than that. A 2.4 WAR difference between the two is significant.

 

Jersey is going to respond that Fukudome's WAR is dragged down by the RNG that is fielding stats.

 

and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke.

[jersey cubs fan]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

 

 

??

 

I'd expect DeJesus (2.2 WAR) to do what he did last year and Fukudome (-.2 WAR) was way worse than that. A 2.4 WAR difference between the two is significant.

 

I see Fukudome doing much better than that with the Cubs last year.

[MSG T]

I know it wasn't completely directed at me, but that's why I'd only do it for a "knock your socks off" type of package that helps both short and long term. I'd prefer to keep the guy, he's the type you build for the next 6-8 years around, but I consider it unrealistic to not think far enough out of the box to not consider trading certain people. Hell, I'd listen to offers on Castro. There's about a .1% chance I'd trade him, but it's not completely out of bounds.

 

Adding a 2-4 type FA pitcher to what they already have, one major offensive improvement and a few smaller ones should get them to or somewhat above .500. To trade Garza, you'd have to add enough ML ready talent (either one great or a couple of good players) to offset that, in addition to them being long term answers. Otherwise he stays.

[MSG T]

Holy crap, I complete forgot about Kosuke. It seems like years since he's been in Chicago. I'd also forgotten how bad he and Colvin were last year. Thanks for reminding me. :x

 

Colvin sucked balls, Fukudome wasn't any worse than you could expect Dejesus to be.

 

 

??

 

I'd expect DeJesus (2.2 WAR) to do what he did last year and Fukudome (-.2 WAR) was way worse than that. A 2.4 WAR difference between the two is significant.

 

I see Fukudome doing much better than that with the Cubs last year.

 

 

I was going by fangraphs, which has Kosuke at -.2 and DeJesus at 2.2 last year.

[jersey cubs fan]

I was going by fangraphs, which has Kosuke at -.2 and DeJesus at 2.2 last year.

 

I don't see them breaking it down by which team he was with, BR.com does have that broken out and it looks like the flukish (and ridiculous) negative fielding rating all occured with the Indians.

 

 

Dejesus isn't any better than what Fukudome was with the Cubs. Colvin was the one who sucked balls out there for the Cubs.

[mul21]

The OF would be harder, not sure what to do with that mess. See if they can trade Soriano and go with Byrd/BJackson/DeJesus and hope for the best? Move Soto/Marmol for OF help and Byrd for a prospect? Not sure.

 

Cubs got -1.1 fWAR out of the Fukudome/Colvin collective suckfest. Replace that with DeJesus, have Soriano's BABIP bounceback, and suddenly I think you've gained about 4 WAR in the OF even before Jackson shows up.

 

Even with that, Prince, and Headley "coming close" to replicating Ramirez, the offense still wouldn't be good enough to sustain a hit from losing Garza from an already below average pitching staff.

 

You're also likely getting a significant bump in WAR from the 4 and 5 rotation spots assuming we can avoid trotting the same crapfest out there 2 out of 5 days like we did last year.

[sneakypower]

Jersey is going to respond that Fukudome's WAR is dragged down by the RNG that is fielding stats.

 

and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke.

prior to last year, DeJesus averaged +10 the previous six seasons per TZ

 

yeah, there's a weird, odd, gaping disparity between UZR and TZ for Fukudome, but DeJesus should legitimately be regarded as a very strong fielder

[treebird]

Jersey is going to respond that Fukudome's WAR is dragged down by the RNG that is fielding stats.

 

and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke.

prior to last year, DeJesus averaged +10 the previous six seasons per TZ

 

yeah, there's a weird, odd, gaping disparity between UZR and TZ for Fukudome, but DeJesus should legitimately be regarded as a very strong fielder

 

i'm not saying dejesus isn't a strong fielder, just that the only reason he looks like a big upgrade in war is because uzr thinks fukudome is cliff floyd

[Rob]

Jersey is going to respond that Fukudome's WAR is dragged down by the RNG that is fielding stats.

 

and he won't be wrong to do so. fukudome at -11 and dejesus at +14 per 150 games in right field is a joke.

prior to last year, DeJesus averaged +10 the previous six seasons per TZ

 

yeah, there's a weird, odd, gaping disparity between UZR and TZ for Fukudome, but DeJesus should legitimately be regarded as a very strong fielder

 

i'm not saying dejesus isn't a strong fielder, just that the only reason he looks like a big upgrade in war is because uzr thinks fukudome is cliff floyd

 

Watching Fukudome from his first year in Chicago to his last, I'm not entirely sure UZR is that far off. There was a pretty big decline defensively.

[Tracer Bullet]

Really? I sure didn't watch every game but I didn't notice the cliff dive.

 

I'm not even so much arguing, just honestly wondering if others share that view.

[jersey cubs fan]

Really? I sure didn't watch every game but I didn't notice the cliff dive.

 

I'm not even so much arguing, just honestly wondering if others share that view.

 

No. He played some CF in Cleveland and apparently that hurt some of his numbers. I'd like to see somebody justify his numbers being bad.

[rawaction]

He's just talking about defensively. From the visual test, I would say Fukudome definitely wasn't as strong defensively last year as he had been the previous 2 years. Of course, I wouldn't call it falling off a cliff either. Seemed to have more problem going back and away from his glove side.