Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[XZero771679666304]

Topic is a bit old, but relevant. I think my estimations are realistic.

 

1B- Pujols(26M) 9/235

2B- K.Johnson(8M) 2/16

SS- Castro

3B- Headley (Vitters,Dolis,Rhee) Too much?

C- Geo

RF- B.Jackson

CF- Cespedes(8M) 7/50

LF- Ethier (12M) 5/60

 

SP:

Hamels(19M) 5/95 I don't think Phillies can afford him

Garza

Darvish(19M) 40M posting fee with 5/55 deal

Gio (Szczur,McNutt,Hernandez) Enough?

Cashner/Wells

 

Closer: Marshall, maybe Cash if his arm can't hold up.

 

The Cubs have I believe 43M available this year with another 10M likely thanks to the CBA. Add in the money saved when you shop Marmol for prospects and that should be enough, or very close to enough, to cover the Pujols,Johnson,Cespedes and Darvish signings. In 2013 they have in the neighborhood of 40M to spend. Hamels/Either will eat the majority of that with arbitration eating the rest. Granted the lineup lacks the true second impact bat, but the depth is awesome. Combine that with a pitching staff likely in the top few in baseball and I think you have a team that can challenge for a championship. Thoughts?

 

So add Pujols, Johnson, Headley, Cespedes, Hamels, Darvish and Gio Gonzalez?

 

That's madness. A ton of money and a ton of prospects. Also in that scenario you'd have to at least partially take into account the money the Cubs would be eating on Z and Soriano.

 

I think Theo will try and position the Cubs to compete in 2012, but not go balls-out crazy trying to win the WS next year, especially not a the expense of half of our top 15.

 

I think 2-3 of Pujols/Fielder, Cespedes, Darvish and Stewart/Headley would be the outer limit of what we could reasonably expect for this offseason.

[Tryptamine]

A little misunderstanding, these moves are over the course of the next two offseasons. The Cubs will have roughly 43M this offseason+10M thanks to CBA. If the Cubs trade Marmol as I suggested we further increase our available money so that Pujols(26), Darvish(19), Cepedes(7) and Kelly Johnson(8) are affordable. The two aforementioned trades would take place this offseason as well.

 

In the next offseason Z and Demp come off the books and you look to move Sori for whatever savings you can get. This should allow you some where in the neighborhood of 40M to spend. If Hamels gets 19 and Ethier gets 12 we're still left with a sizable chunk to pay the extra salary from Gio/Chase and address arbitration.

 

Now is this all likely? Of course not, but a team like that would be very competitive and it could be done in two years without any significant payroll increase.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Topic is a bit old, but relevant. I think my estimations are realistic.

 

1B- Pujols(26M) 9/235

2B- K.Johnson(8M) 2/16

SS- Castro

3B- Headley (Vitters,Dolis,Rhee) Too much?

C- Geo

RF- B.Jackson

CF- Cespedes(8M) 7/50

LF- Ethier (12M) 5/60

 

SP:

Hamels(19M) 5/95 I don't think Phillies can afford him

Garza

Darvish(19M) 40M posting fee with 5/55 deal

Gio (Szczur,McNutt,Hernandez) Enough?

Cashner/Wells

 

Closer: Marshall, maybe Cash if his arm can't hold up.

 

The Cubs have I believe 43M available this year with another 10M likely thanks to the CBA. Add in the money saved when you shop Marmol for prospects and that should be enough, or very close to enough, to cover the Pujols,Johnson,Cespedes and Darvish signings. In 2013 they have in the neighborhood of 40M to spend. Hamels/Either will eat the majority of that with arbitration eating the rest. Granted the lineup lacks the true second impact bat, but the depth is awesome. Combine that with a pitching staff likely in the top few in baseball and I think you have a team that can challenge for a championship. Thoughts?

 

So add Pujols, Johnson, Headley, Cespedes, Hamels, Darvish and Gio Gonzalez?

 

That's madness. A ton of money and a ton of prospects. Also in that scenario you'd have to at least partially take into account the money the Cubs would be eating on Z and Soriano.

 

I think Theo will try and position the Cubs to compete in 2012, but not go balls-out crazy trying to win the WS next year, especially not a the expense of half of our top 15.

 

I think 2-3 of Pujols/Fielder, Cespedes, Darvish and Stewart/Headley would be the outer limit of what we could reasonably expect for this offseason.

 

I think you're being a bit ambitious there. The package for Headley doesn't seem unreasonable. However, if they want Rhee they can just pluck him in the Rule 5 so we might have to give them something else. As for Gio, it would be a great rotation and all, but assuming we signed Hamels(or Cain) and Darvish and added them to Garza with that lineup we'd be good enough to save the rest of the prospects and the back of the rotation could be between McNutt, Cashner, Wells, Samardzjia, Struck etc.(might need Cashner as the closer if Marmol's traded) Also, I don't know how much we'd need to spend on Kelly Johnson. With what you've proposed a lineup of

 

1. Jackson CF

2. Castro SS

3. Ethier LF

4. Pujols 1B

5. Cespedes RF

6. Headley 3B

7. Geo C

8. Barney/Baker/LeMahieu/Watkins/cheap gritty white guy 2B

 

would more than suffice.

[davell]

Over a 2 year period, this IS ambitious, but also possible. My thinking is that's not going to be close to enough to get Gio, nor will that contract get us Pujols. I think it'll take over 250 for us to get him and even then, if the Cards are within 20 or 30 mill, I think he'd stay put. Assuming Ethier has a bounce back season, I think 15 a year is more likely for him. That said, this team is probably around a 150ish mill area and it'd certainly create a ton of excitement. I doubt it's Hamels personally, but I definitely see us adding a bigtime starter thru FA next offseason. Darvish is iffy for me as well, due to the fact I don't see him coming until next year. And I doubt we go after 2 guys like that. But I like the thought process and think the "gist" is right on. A team like this is possible within 2 years.

[apete6]

Topic is a bit old, but relevant. I think my estimations are realistic.

 

1B- Pujols(26M) 9/235

2B- K.Johnson(8M) 2/16

SS- Castro

3B- Headley (Vitters,Dolis,Rhee) Too much?

C- Geo

RF- B.Jackson

CF- Cespedes(8M) 7/50

LF- Ethier (12M) 5/60

 

SP:

Hamels(19M) 5/95 I don't think Phillies can afford him

Garza

Darvish(19M) 40M posting fee with 5/55 deal

Gio (Szczur,McNutt,Hernandez) Enough?

Cashner/Wells

 

Closer: Marshall, maybe Cash if his arm can't hold up.

 

The Cubs have I believe 43M available this year with another 10M likely thanks to the CBA. Add in the money saved when you shop Marmol for prospects and that should be enough, or very close to enough, to cover the Pujols,Johnson,Cespedes and Darvish signings. In 2013 they have in the neighborhood of 40M to spend. Hamels/Either will eat the majority of that with arbitration eating the rest. Granted the lineup lacks the true second impact bat, but the depth is awesome. Combine that with a pitching staff likely in the top few in baseball and I think you have a team that can challenge for a championship. Thoughts?

 

So add Pujols, Johnson, Headley, Cespedes, Hamels, Darvish and Gio Gonzalez?

 

That's madness. A ton of money and a ton of prospects. Also in that scenario you'd have to at least partially take into account the money the Cubs would be eating on Z and Soriano.

 

I think Theo will try and position the Cubs to compete in 2012, but not go balls-out crazy trying to win the WS next year, especially not a the expense of half of our top 15.

 

I think 2-3 of Pujols/Fielder, Cespedes, Darvish and Stewart/Headley would be the outer limit of what we could reasonably expect for this offseason.

 

I think you're being a bit ambitious there. The package for Headley doesn't seem unreasonable. However, if they want Rhee they can just pluck him in the Rule 5 so we might have to give them something else. As for Gio, it would be a great rotation and all, but assuming we signed Hamels(or Cain) and Darvish and added them to Garza with that lineup we'd be good enough to save the rest of the prospects and the back of the rotation could be between McNutt, Cashner, Wells, Samardzjia, Struck etc.(might need Cashner as the closer if Marmol's traded) Also, I don't know how much we'd need to spend on Kelly Johnson. With what you've proposed a lineup of

 

1. Jackson CF

2. Castro SS

3. Ethier LF

4. Pujols 1B

5. Cespedes RF

6. Headley 3B

7. Geo C

8. Barney/Baker/LeMahieu/Watkins/cheap gritty white guy 2B

 

would more than suffice.

 

Why, exactly would Andre Ethier be getting more at bats than Albert Pujols?

[bukie]

Suppose this is as good a thread as any for this. Christina Kahrl just wrote a blog post outlining three fixes for the NL Central teams. As for the Cubs:

 

Not trying to be Zen-like about this, but the Cubs' issues transcend single positions and demand expansive solutions ...

 

1. Achieve closure. (Carlos Zambrano)

 

Before moving on to new business, the Cubs' new brain trust needs to be sure that it's finished up with the most noisome bit of old business. To get even a middling prospect, the Cubs would need to eat just about all of the $18 million that Zambrano's due and get him to waive his no-trade clause.

 

As tense as Big Z's relationship with his employers has been, you can understand some of his frustration -- moving him to the bullpen in 2010 was genuinely stupid, and who wouldn't get exasperated with being a Cub? Whether the choice is to clean the slate or make a deal, it's worthwhile to choose and move on.

 

Likely outcome: Unless the Marlins' idea of getting him to defer salary goes anywhere, get used to the idea that Zambrano will be with the Cubs in camp when pitchers and catchers report.

 

2. Acquire patience and power (6.9 percent walk rate, 29th in MLB)

 

This isn't just the fault of veterans Alfonso Soriano (5.3 percent walk rate in 2011) and Marlon Byrd (5.2); kids like Starlin Castro (4.9) and Darwin Barney (3.9) don't work their way aboard either. It's hard to sustain any kind of offense without baserunners, and right now the only regular with a walk rate better than league average is Geovany Soto. And with Carlos Pena and Aramis Ramirez vacating the infield corners, the Cubs are losing two of their best power sources.

 

Likely outcome: Top prospect Brett Jackson (73 walks in 512 PAs in the minors) will make the team at some point, likely replacing Byrd in center (if he's dealt). The Cubs just signed David DeJesus for right field, but short of re-signing Pena or landing either Pujols or Fielder to man first base, it's going to take some pretty creative wheeling and dealing to significantly improve matters in Year 1 of the Theo Epstein era.

 

3. Improve the defense (.699 Defensive Efficiency, 26th in MLB)

 

The new crew in charge talks about defense a bit, and it's easy to understand why, given the weak performance afield of the group it's inheriting. In particular, it's no secret that Castro's brand of shortstop play didn't do the Cubs any favors, as he ranked last among big league shortstops in Total Zone and BIS' Defensive Runs Saved.

 

Likely outcome: The upside of having a young star at short will mean a lot of extra infield practice for Castro in February, and Jackson will improve the outfield once he's up. But if Castro's footwork doesn't improve, moving him to third and the much more slick Barney to short (where his bat would profile better) could eventually be part of the solution.

[PrimeTime]

.299 career hitter with RISP is a nice little thing about him.

[treebird]

.299 career hitter with RISP is a nice little thing about him.

 

.000 when batting right handed though. that will need to improve.

[jersey cubs fan]

Not trying to be Zen-like about this' date=' but the Cubs' issues transcend single positions and demand expansive solutions ...

 

Likely outcome: Top prospect Brett Jackson (73 walks in 512 PAs in the minors) will make the team at some point, likely replacing Byrd in center (if he's dealt). The Cubs just signed David DeJesus for right field, but short of re-signing Pena or landing either Pujols or Fielder to man first base, it's going to take some pretty creative wheeling and dealing to significantly improve matters in Year 1 of the Theo Epstein era.[/quote']

 

Interesting, I have an idea though. Why don't they sign Pujols or Fielder to significantly improve things in year 1?

[A New Era]

Not trying to be Zen-like about this' date=' but the Cubs' issues transcend single positions and demand expansive solutions ...

 

Likely outcome: Top prospect Brett Jackson (73 walks in 512 PAs in the minors) will make the team at some point, likely replacing Byrd in center (if he's dealt). The Cubs just signed David DeJesus for right field, but short of re-signing Pena or landing either Pujols or Fielder to man first base, it's going to take some pretty creative wheeling and dealing to significantly improve matters in Year 1 of the Theo Epstein era.[/quote']

 

Interesting, I have an idea though. Why don't they sign Pujols or Fielder to significantly improve things in year 1?

 

I'm so much on board the Fielder train, at this point if they don't sign him, I'll be "dissapoint".

[A New Era]

Here's how I'd like it to shape out.

 

Lineup order

 

RF Dejesus

SS Castro

1B Fielder

LF Willingham or trade for good D good power guy

3B Headley

CF Jackson

2B Trade or FA

C Soto or Castillo (Cast if Soto can bring decent pitching)

 

I'd like to keep Garza, just go out and get a legit #2 guy with trade chips, marmol, soto, mcnutt, lake, are among the chips I'd use.

 

Marshall or Wood battling for closer. We've got a good pen. With a Fielder signing and bringing in a good #2 there is no reason the Cubs can't have an exciting team while at the same time not losing too many assets.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

RF DeJesus

SS Castro

1b LaHair

3b Stewart

C Soto

LF Soriano

CF Byrd

2b Barney

 

Dempster

Zambrano

Wells

Mediocre replacement we get in return for Garza

Cashner/Samardzija/whoever

 

Marmol (DL)

Wood

Russell

Samardzija/Cashner/whoever

Mateo

Castillo (rule 5 guy)

[Cubswin11]

My completely optimistic/not happening offseason with what has already happened/what we know

 

Sign Fielder to a 5 year $140m deal with a 6th year option

Trade Colvin, DJL, Maine to the Rockies for Stewart and a minor leaguer

Trade Garza, Byrd, Lake, Barney, Castillo and Dolis to the Marlins for Hanley

Sign one of Cody Ross, Andruw Jones, Reed Johnson to be the 4th/5th OF and RH hitter

Sign Kuroda to a 2 year $18m deal

Win Posting/Sign Darvish overall cost of $120m +/-

 

Leaves us with a lineup of

 

Castro 2B

Dejesus RF/Jackson CF

Hanley SS

Fielder 1B

Soto C

Stewart 3B

Soriano LF

Jackson CF/Dejesus RF

 

Baker 3B/2B/1B/OF

Johnson/Jones/Ross OF

FA backup C or Clevenger

DeWitt/Lahair

 

 

Darvish

Kuroda

Z

Dempster

Wells/Cashner/Samardzija

 

Marmol

Marshall

Wood

Carpenter

Russell

Mateo/Gaub/dude we picked in the rule 5

Wells/Cashner/Samardzija

[Guest]

I wouldn't trade Garza straight up for Hanley at this point.

[neely crenshaw]

With LA's signing of Pujols and Wilson, they have a very set lineup and staff save for no closer. They also have a potentially great young 1b in Trumbo. Love to see the cubs swing a deal of marmol for trumbo...and maybe a pitching prospect-they have 2-3 that were supposed to be major league ready, and it looks now only 1 will make it or be needed.

This seems to be right up theo's alley. With talk that Karchner may be moved into the closer spot, Marmol's value will not be any higher. There are 2 names out there KRod and mattson BUT both krod would be much more expensive(as he will be turning down arbitration for between 14-16 mil) and marmol is much, much better than mattson, and probably less expensive to a team that just spent 325 mil for 2 guys.

I think garza for hanley is not possible. watching hot stove all week, they made a great point that without pujols joining that lineup, if they lose rameriz without getting a bat would make that lineup actually worse than last year. reyes to stanton and sanchez is ok at best. then they have johnson, garza and beurhle,,ok also but not overtaking the phillies and probably a crap shoot for wildcard. A better scenario would be maybe garza for sanchez..another good young 1B.

I am sure the marlins aren't done but perhaps an insight can be gained by if they go after fielder(which they say no) or "our" Rameriz which would mean hanley is not on board.

[Cubswin11]

With LA's signing of Pujols and Wilson, they have a very set lineup and staff save for no closer. They also have a potentially great young 1b in Trumbo. Love to see the cubs swing a deal of marmol for trumbo...and maybe a pitching prospect-they have 2-3 that were supposed to be major league ready, and it looks now only 1 will make it or be needed.

This seems to be right up theo's alley. With talk that Karchner may be moved into the closer spot, Marmol's value will not be any higher. There are 2 names out there KRod and mattson BUT both krod would be much more expensive(as he will be turning down arbitration for between 14-16 mil) and marmol is much, much better than mattson, and probably less expensive to a team that just spent 325 mil for 2 guys.

I think garza for hanley is not possible. watching hot stove all week, they made a great point that without pujols joining that lineup, if they lose rameriz without getting a bat would make that lineup actually worse than last year. reyes to stanton and sanchez is ok at best. then they have johnson, garza and beurhle,,ok also but not overtaking the phillies and probably a crap shoot for wildcard. A better scenario would be maybe garza for sanchez..another good young 1B.

I am sure the marlins aren't done but perhaps an insight can be gained by if they go after fielder(which they say no) or "our" Rameriz which would mean hanley is not on board.

They have Walden don't they? He had a pretty good year last year iirc, plus he's young and cheap.

[Guest]

Trumbo blows.

[neely crenshaw]

yea, that's a good description, of course we just paid a veteran in carlos pena 10 mil to hit 30 points lower. hit 1 fewer hr and 1 fewer rbi than trumbo in his big league season. good call, he probably won't get any better...

as for walden he is what they used last year but he blew 10 saves and they tried the job to fernando rodney even. I just can't see them being ready to pay that much money to hand walden the ball in the 9th inning of game 7of the ALCS.

[Guest]

yea, that's a good description, of course we just paid a veteran in carlos pena 10 mil to hit 30 points lower. hit 1 fewer hr and 1 fewer rbi than trumbo in his big league season. good call, he probably won't get any better...

 

Notice how you said absolutely nothing about OBP. He's wonderful at making outs. He was pretty good at it in the minors too. Good call.

 

Granted, I didn't say Pena was very good himself, so whatever.

[neely crenshaw]

you may want to investigate that, yes he had 291 obp but his minors were much better and steadily got better with a high of .368 in AAA in 2010. It seems his history says his average, and obp will rise since he was a rookie.

it's just a thought because clearly pujols or fielder aren't coming, pena isn't coming back...i guess it could be jeff baker.

I just think if we got trumbo and a pitcher for Marmol (especially if they are planning on moving him out of the closer role, making his value fall substantially) then this could be a chance for a pretty decent return.

[davell]

Why is Fielder clearly not coming?

[SouthSideRyan]

The .368 happened to be in the PCL, and was 35 points better than he'd ever done before. I just don't see the OBP ever coming around for him.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Okay. So we still want the Cubs to be competitive in 2012. They clearly aren't there right now, but they also clearly aren't done. How much to they need to improve to get there?

 

tl;dr warning

 

 

I'm going to arbitrarily set the bar for "competitive" at "projects to 84 wins in 2012." That should get you within positive variance range of 89-90 wins, which should be enough to win a wild card, presuming MLB goes with two per league this year, which I think they will. Last year's team was had 70 pyth wins.

 

With what we have right now:

 

Outfield

Soriano

Byrd

DeJesus

(Jackson waiting in the wings)

 

I'm going to say this outfield projects to an improvement of 2 wins over last year's. Essentially because Tyler Colvin has been made to go away and I expect Soriano to have a BABIP-driven bounceback to average-ness after his 1.3 WAR season.

 

Infield

 

Stewart

Castro

Barney

LaHair

Soto

 

*pukes*

 

Last year's starting infield was fairly stable and a strength of the team, giving us a combined 13.5 fWAR. I'm going to be very generous and project Stewart to 2.5 WAR just to keep this thread from deraililng. I think Castro an be a 4-WAR player this year (improved power, more consistent defense, probably due for the batting average to drop a little). Barney is probably more like a 1.5 WAR player once UZR stops shtumping for him. LaHair at 1.5 WAR is also probably a bit generous, but what the hey. I'll project no change on Soto, 1.7 again. That puts us at 11.2 with this year's infield, or a net loss of -2.3 wins from last year's (round it to -2.5 for convenience).

 

Rotation

Garza

Dempster

Zambrano

Wells

Cashner/Samardzija/Lopez/whoever

 

I'm going to switch it up here and start using bWAR. fWAR for pitcher's uses predictive peripheral-derived stats instead of just describing how many runs they gave up, and we had a lot of pitchers who were unlucky in giving up runs relative to their peripherals. So just using fWAR would make it look like we'd expect no improvement, but really we should. bWAR just uses straight runs allowed.

 

Using bWAR, we got a total of about 3.0 WAR from our starting pitchers last year (not going to parse out the starting/relieving numbers we got last year). It was hideous.

 

I'd expect something like 3.5 from Garza, 1.5 from Dempster (probably underselling him, he had a ton of poor luck last year, but he's also getting up there in age), 2.0 from Zambrano (including his bat. Oddly enough, Garza and Dempster both gave back about half a win with unusually poor offensive seasons last year), and 1.0 from the remainder (I'm very bearish on Randy Wells and who knows what the rest of them can give us. That's still a huge improvement over last year).

 

So that puts us five wins ahead of last year's rotation. I don't think that's unreasonable at all. Last year, we had several pitchers throw in horrible luck and trotted out a ton of sub-replacement pitchers. We made Carlos Zambrano go away for mediocre reasons.

 

Bullpen:

 

I'm going to be super lazy and say that the bullpen should be about the same. Same pitchers, Marmol's as likely to have his shoulder fall off as he is to bounce back, we'll probably have someone randomly suck as hard as Grabow did.

 

Bench:

Who knows who will be on it. We still need at least one more outfielder for sure. I'm going to project a +1 win improvement because Koyie Hill is going to go away and Sveum might know to leave Baker on the bench against righties.

 

In total:

70 wins last year

+2

-2.5

+5

0

+1

2012 projection with no significant changes: 75.5.

 

In order to get to the arbitrary 84-win competitiveness mark, we need to find 8.5 marginal wins over our current roster with our remaining offseason moves. If we only have $30 million to spend (basically on the very pessimistic end of reasonable), that's a very thrifty $3.5 million per win. If we have $50 million to spend (on the very optimistic side of reasonable), then we need an extremely doable $5.9 million per win.

 

The biggest, easiest improvements are 1b and two starting rotation spots. We could probably find some incremental gains at 2b and the OF as well without trying too hard. Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder get you there, imo. That's the really obvious combination. The trade market could surely provide others.

 

On the other hand, if we dump Garza like we've talked about, we'd need to find another 12 marginal wins. At that point, I think that's looking awfully dicey.

 

[Little Slide Rooter]

Let's see. The Cardinals lose Pujols. Brewers likely to lose Fielder and Braun for 50 games. The NL Central is suddenly very winnable. The Reds are once again the favorites,but moves that otherwise would have made us better but not necessarily condendera could suddenly make us into contenders. I'm not saying Jed and Theo should do anything to compromise the future, but they should definitely think in terms that winning now is very possible.

[hardcorecubfan]

Why is Fielder clearly not coming?

 

there isn't enough fast food places within walking distance of the ball-park. You have to wait to long for your food at Harry's