Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[dew1679666265]

You know what Japenese pitcher wouldnt have trouble with the American ball? 6'5" 220, long limbed Yu Darvish. I'm starting to turn to that guy, money be damned (unless it's just plain too much).

 

Posting fee included Daisuke basically got a 6 year/$103 million contract ($51 million posting fee, $52 million contract over six years). Darvish is younger and, I believe, more productive than Daisuke was so it would make sense that they would base their demand on that deal and then raise it. Would a $60-70 million posting fee + say, a 7/70 ($10 AAV) sound about right? So between $130-140 total dollars.

 

The problem you get into here is twofold. One, going with Wilson over Darvish gives you a similar payout, but allows you to spread the posting fee out over 5 years or so. There's also more certainty with Wilson than there is Darvish. Wilson's a pretty good bet at this point to be a 4-5+ WAR guy. What are the chances Darvish comes over and is better than that?

 

The second problem you face is how that $60-70 million posting fee is factored in. Would giving out that posting fee keep Ricketts from being able to commit money to Pujols/Prince this year when he otherwise would have? That leads to asking whether Wilson/Pujols is better than Darvish/somebody (Butler maybe, but then you have to subtract the prospects given up).

 

The point to all of this rambling is that I'd be interested in Darvish and I'm very intrigued by the idea, but there's some big questions that need to be answered before I think it's the right move to make.

[treebird]

I'm starting to turn to that guy, money be damned (unless it's just plain too much).

 

money be damned (unless not)

[mul21]

After the fiasco that Daisuke became, I'll be a bit surprised if the posting fee for Darvish is even equal to what his was. If it gets into that range, not a chance I'm interested.

 

Also, I think your estimation of what it will take to get Wilson is high. I don't think it's going to be any more than $100 million total and you're proposing $130-140 if I read that right.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

I'm starting to turn to that guy, money be damned (unless it's just plain too much).

 

money be damned (unless not)

 

That is what I was going for yes.

 

No but legitimately that guy IMO is the best player from Japan since Hideki Matsui. He's got the height, the build, the youth, the stuff, less culture shock than usual as he's somewhat Americanized....

[toonsterwu]

3/4 is a more optimistic than I think. It's debatable if he has plus velo on the fastball in America (with the different balls), and I haven't heard anyone suggest that his fastball has great movement. His breaking ball is decent, but again, ball changes makes it hard to project, and typically, it's tougher for the Asian guys to grip the American balls (obviously, depends on the individual). I know online reports have a forkball, but I don't know if that's as far developed as the reports suggest. The change-up is probably below average. Feels more like a 5th starter, a guy with good control, or a pen arm to me, at least, in his first year or two.

 

That said, who knows.

 

I trust you and Raisin at this stuff more than myself, but my first impression was a 5th starter his first year or two, but with the upside of a 3 starter. At 26 he has time to develop some of the secondary pitches and adjust to the American game. Am I off base in thinking that?

 

I think that's potentially fair ... an end of the rotation starter with potential mid-rotation ceiling depending on how he adjusts to the ball and other adjustments needed. I mean, that also, though essentially describes a lot of guys in the minors. For one, Nick Struck.

[toonsterwu]

You know what Japenese pitcher wouldnt have trouble with the American ball? 6'5" 220, long limbed Yu Darvish. I'm starting to turn to that guy, money be damned (unless it's just plain too much).

 

Well ... most people tend to think he won't have as many problems adjusting, but I'd be more curious about his hand size and ability to get around the ball. That said, the ball is a different texture as well.

 

I tend to view Darvish this way - I think he probably has a great ceiling, but no one should go into his first year or two here expecting greatness.

[dew1679666265]

After the fiasco that Daisuke became, I'll be a bit surprised if the posting fee for Darvish is even equal to what his was. If it gets into that range, not a chance I'm interested.

 

Also, I think your estimation of what it will take to get Wilson is high. I don't think it's going to be any more than $100 million total and you're proposing $130-140 if I read that right.

 

You read what I wrote right, but I said it wrong. What I meant was that Wilson's contract (which I think is likely to end up in the $80-90 range) will be spread out over 4-5 years, whereas Darvish would have a large lump sum up front that might hinder pursuing the elite bat we need most.

 

On the posting fee, I think they'll start above the $50 million the Sox paid for Daisuke and teams will start out well below it. They may end up right around that $50 million, just above, or just below but I think we almost have to assume more until we know otherwise. And I think to back off from Darvish simply because Daisuke failed is jumping the gun. They're two different pitchers, as Darvish is younger, bigger, more projectable, and doesn't have the massive workload Daisuke had. I remember Daisuke was proud of the fact that he could pitch a massive amount of innings and not get injured. What happened? He shortly had injury and ineffectiveness problems. Darvish doesn't have the same workload risk that Daisuke had.

[jersey cubs fan]

After the fiasco that Daisuke became, I'll be a bit surprised if the posting fee for Darvish is even equal to what his was. If it gets into that range, not a chance I'm interested.

 

Also, I think your estimation of what it will take to get Wilson is high. I don't think it's going to be any more than $100 million total and you're proposing $130-140 if I read that right.

 

You read what I wrote right, but I said it wrong. What I meant was that Wilson's contract (which I think is likely to end up in the $80-90 range) will be spread out over 4-5 years, whereas Darvish would have a large lump sum up front that might hinder pursuing the elite bat we need most.

 

On the posting fee, I think they'll start above the $50 million the Sox paid for Daisuke and teams will start out well below it. They may end up right around that $50 million, just above, or just below but I think we almost have to assume more until we know otherwise. And I think to back off from Darvish simply because Daisuke failed is jumping the gun. They're two different pitchers, as Darvish is younger, bigger, more projectable, and doesn't have the massive workload Daisuke had. I remember Daisuke was proud of the fact that he could pitch a massive amount of innings and not get injured. What happened? He shortly had injury and ineffectiveness problems. Darvish doesn't have the same workload risk that Daisuke had.

 

This is assuming a posting fee that gets paid out in cash up front. Do they all have to be done that way?

[dew1679666265]

I think that's potentially fair ... an end of the rotation starter with potential mid-rotation ceiling depending on how he adjusts to the ball and other adjustments needed. I mean, that also, though essentially describes a lot of guys in the minors. For one, Nick Struck.

 

Wouldn't Chen be closer, though? Struck may be two years away from being a productive major leaguer, much less hitting his ceiling. Chen could be a major leaguer next season and hit his ceiling (hopefully) within a couple years. Considering Daisuke only got less than $9 million AAV, it seems we could potentially get Chen in the $5-8 range over, say, 5-6 years and potentially have a pretty good bargain.

 

If we had the prospects ready right now, I might oppose going for Chen. But since McNutt's the closest starter and it's unlikely he'll be up sooner than mid-season next year, it would seem to make sense to shoot for a young lefty with upside who can contribute now.

[dew1679666265]

This is assuming a posting fee that gets paid out in cash up front. Do they all have to be done that way?

 

That's a good question. I would assume so since the money is going to a Japanese ballclub and they'd probably want the money up front, but I guess it could be part of the deal that the Cubs pay them a few extra million and they allow the Cubs to spread the payments out.

 

Hadn't really thought about that question until now, to be honest.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

 

Teams have five business days after agreeing with a contract to the player to pay the full amount of the posting fee. It's a sealed auction and the Japanese team doesn't know the team that made the high bid, so there'd be no opportunity to negotiate a longer payment schedule.

[dew1679666265]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

 

Teams have five business days after agreeing with a contract to the player to pay the full amount of the posting fee. It's a sealed auction and the Japanese team doesn't know the team that made the high bid, so there'd be no opportunity to negotiate a longer payment schedule.

 

That answers that. Thanks Kyle!

[jersey cubs fan]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Posting_system

 

Teams have five business days after agreeing with a contract to the player to pay the full amount of the posting fee. It's a sealed auction and the Japanese team doesn't know the team that made the high bid, so there'd be no opportunity to negotiate a longer payment schedule.

 

That answers that. Thanks Kyle!

 

But is it a rule or just customary? Is there anything that forbids multiple payments?

[dew1679666265]

But is it a rule or just customary? Is there anything that forbids multiple payments?

 

What benefit does the Japanese team have to allow multiple payments? Given the process, let's say the Cubs win with a bid of $60 million. The Cubs are on the hook to pay that amount no matter what, unless they don't agree to terms with Darvish. I guess the Cubs could threaten to not sign Darvish unless his team allowed them to make multiple payments, but then you make yourself some enemies and the team just says no and waits until next year to allow bidding again.

 

$60 million is worth more as a lump sum paid tomorrow than it is as payments of $10 million each over six years to the Japanese club, so I don't see the motive for them to agree to that, even if it's possible.

[toonsterwu]

I think that's potentially fair ... an end of the rotation starter with potential mid-rotation ceiling depending on how he adjusts to the ball and other adjustments needed. I mean, that also, though essentially describes a lot of guys in the minors. For one, Nick Struck.

 

Wouldn't Chen be closer, though? Struck may be two years away from being a productive major leaguer, much less hitting his ceiling. Chen could be a major leaguer next season and hit his ceiling (hopefully) within a couple years. Considering Daisuke only got less than $9 million AAV, it seems we could potentially get Chen in the $5-8 range over, say, 5-6 years and potentially have a pretty good bargain.

 

If we had the prospects ready right now, I might oppose going for Chen. But since McNutt's the closest starter and it's unlikely he'll be up sooner than mid-season next year, it would seem to make sense to shoot for a young lefty with upside who can contribute now.

 

That assumes that Chen makes a sound transition to MLB. Let's say he loses a tick off the fastball, and he's sitting more high 80's/low 90's, a very plausible scenario. His breaking ball is fairly average. You know who that describes? Kei Igawa.

 

Now, I tend to think Chen is better, and I don't think there are the mechanical concerns that the Yankees had with Igawa, but my point is, assuming a sound transition is still a risky bet.

 

Struck's a hard case to say when he would be ready. He's in AAA and held his own decently enough at age 21, but his secondary stuff needs a lot of work. That said, I'm down on Jay Jackson, but Jackson, on paper, is probably similar to what Chen would offer, based off what is known about Chen right now (Jackson has a bit better velo, but both guys don't have much in the terms of consistent breaking pitches right now). Chen's a bit better than Casey Coleman, but it's hard for me to buy that he's significantly better, based off what is known right now.

 

If Chen is more upper 80's (again, he could prove to handle the American ball just fine, so this is just hypotheticals), he's somewhat similar to Chris Rusin.

 

At the right price, sure, I'd be interested. I just don't know how aggressive I'd be to land someone that, for the near term, may not offer significant help.

[dew1679666265]

That assumes that Chen makes a sound transition to MLB. Let's say he loses a tick off the fastball, and he's sitting more high 80's/low 90's, a very plausible scenario. His breaking ball is fairly average. You know who that describes? Kei Igawa.

 

Now, I tend to think Chen is better, and I don't think there are the mechanical concerns that the Yankees had with Igawa, but my point is, assuming a sound transition is still a risky bet.

 

Struck's a hard case to say when he would be ready. He's in AAA and held his own decently enough at age 21, but his secondary stuff needs a lot of work. That said, I'm down on Jay Jackson, but Jackson, on paper, is probably similar to what Chen would offer, based off what is known about Chen right now (Jackson has a bit better velo, but both guys don't have much in the terms of consistent breaking pitches right now). Chen's a bit better than Casey Coleman, but it's hard for me to buy that he's significantly better, based off what is known right now.

 

If Chen is more upper 80's (again, he could prove to handle the American ball just fine, so this is just hypotheticals), he's somewhat similar to Chris Rusin.

 

At the right price, sure, I'd be interested. I just don't know how aggressive I'd be to land someone that, for the near term, may not offer significant help.

 

Is the transition to the states and the different ball something that Theo and co could predict with any certainty? For instance, could they watch him workout and have him use an American ball and gauge that against what the scouts are saying? I have no idea what processes are allowed in pursuing Japanese players, so I don't know if anything like that would be useful or allowed.

 

And I wouldn't pursue him that hard. The main point of interest with Chen is that he wouldn't cost prospects and he might get overlooked due to many factors (big name Japanese pitchers bombing, more under the radar than Darvish or maybe even Wada and Iwakuma). I wouldn't get into a bidding war over him.

[toonsterwu]

I've got no idea on the answer to that. I mean, I'm sure Cashman and his people scouted Kei Igawa enough (although it still might've been a reactionary move to missing on Daisuke). I'm sure the Red Sox scouted Matsuzaka thoroughly. I know the kids in Asia do use the American ball now and again (not in league games, but so many MLB teams have programs set up there and they bring American equipment).

 

And just to be clear, I feel like I've over-stated the ball issue a bit, so I want to clear, I'm just speaking to transitioning in general. Ball size and differences are just one example. I mean, it isn't as if the reports on guys are way off. I mean, there were some folks that thought Matsuzka would hit mid-90's more frequently than he has throughout his Red Sox career, but there were some reports from Japan saying his 4-seamer was more low-mid 90's, and his 2-seamer was more high 80's/low 90's, which is what he has been. In Matsuzaka's case, besides the preparation issues (which depending on how one view things may be significant ... or insignificant), the quality of his stuff and his command of it were never as good as expected (I've seen someone argue before that they felt ball differences played a factor here, but others have argued workload difference, and I don't claim to know).

 

I guess, and just to be clear, I have personal bias to hope Chen proves me wrong, but based on what we know of his scouting report from Japan, Chen is an end of the rotation guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, and that's assuming a successful transition to MLB. If not, and he falls below that, his value is markedly less. I know there was a report that his velocity was further down this year. Can't find it right now, though I assume it was an NPBtracker thing. I wonder if he might be better off as a power pen lefty, a guy who can reach back and just let the fastball go in the 93/94 range.

 

I do agree with Raisin that, if Chen comes, I expect the Cubs to be in on him.

[dew1679666265]

I've got no idea on the answer to that. I mean, I'm sure Cashman and his people scouted Kei Igawa enough (although it still might've been a reactionary move to missing on Daisuke). I'm sure the Red Sox scouted Matsuzaka thoroughly. I know the kids in Asia do use the American ball now and again (not in league games, but so many MLB teams have programs set up there and they bring American equipment).

 

And just to be clear, I feel like I've over-stated the ball issue a bit, so I want to clear, I'm just speaking to transitioning in general. Ball size and differences are just one example. I mean, it isn't as if the reports on guys are way off. I mean, there were some folks that thought Matsuzka would hit mid-90's more frequently than he has throughout his Red Sox career, but there were some reports from Japan saying his 4-seamer was more low-mid 90's, and his 2-seamer was more high 80's/low 90's, which is what he has been. In Matsuzaka's case, besides the preparation issues (which depending on how one view things may be significant ... or insignificant), the quality of his stuff and his command of it were never as good as expected (I've seen someone argue before that they felt ball differences played a factor here, but others have argued workload difference, and I don't claim to know).

 

I guess, and just to be clear, I have personal bias to hope Chen proves me wrong, but based on what we know of his scouting report from Japan, Chen is an end of the rotation guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, and that's assuming a successful transition to MLB. If not, and he falls below that, his value is markedly less. I know there was a report that his velocity was further down this year. Can't find it right now, though I assume it was an NPBtracker thing. I wonder if he might be better off as a power pen lefty, a guy who can reach back and just let the fastball go in the 93/94 range.

 

I do agree with Raisin that, if Chen comes, I expect the Cubs to be in on him.

 

Thanks, I was taking the ball issue as a pretty significant thing. It sounded like the ball issue alone would have the potential to drop his fastball from low 90s to high 80s, which seems pretty significant to me. I'd like to see the Cubs pursue him, though, as it seems you could find some decent value poaching young pitchers who don't require posting fees and basically get supplements to the minor league system.

[Guest]

Dew, while Darvish would be coming over to the U.S. at a younger age and so wouldn't have as much mileage as Matsuzaka, he's been throwing quite a bit so far. He's had 3 200 IP seasons in the NPB, which is as many as Matsuzaka (and Daisuke had 2 more seasons in Japan). He even threw 165 pitches in a start back in 2008: http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/07/npb-bullet-points-20080724/#content

[toonsterwu]

Well, I think adjusting to the ball is a significant enough thing, but guys can learn and adapt, and those that can't, well they can't. I mean, there were a couple Taiwanese kids in recent years that never really took to the American ball, to the best of my knowledge. Their ability to spin their breaking balls aren't as sharp because the balls aren't as tight to grip for them, and their velocities were never as high as some of their international performances. Again, does come down to the individual, hence why earlier, I said one of the bigger issues to me wouldn't necessarily be overall size, but rather hand size. For all I know, Chen might have a big enough hand. Sure feels weird to talk about these things in such a way. Chin-Hui Tsao was an example of a guy who had no issue with the ball ... but had a lot of other issues, particularly medically. Here was a kid who was reported as able to hit mid-90's with nasty movement ... and he had mid-90's with nasty movement. Chien-Ming Wang was always an odd case to me - he had a fairly good breaking ball in international play as a kid, but it never did as well coming up the Yankees system, but he had the hand size to throw that nasty sinker and it became his go to pitch (of course, some have argued that the Yankees didn't develop his pitches well enough, as he was showing a fairly good slider this year).

 

I'm actually somewhat in-different on Chen. For the right price, sure, but he's not a guy I'm going to be too concerned with. You can find guys like Chen. In fact, the Cubs Chen, Hung-Wen Chen, has similar stuff (but since he's a righty, the velo is decidedly fringy as a starter, whereas if Wei-Yin can pick his velo back up to what it was in the past, it'd be average for a lefty).

 

As a total side note, and I'm no expert on this, so someone else should chime in, but I don't love Chen's arm action. He has that similar little motion that Nick Struck (and Dillon Maples has), at least from what I've seen. Not the end of the world, but some guys have had some health issues (Tommy Hanson comes to mind in regards to somewhat similar issues).

[dew1679666265]

Dew, while Darvish would be coming over to the U.S. at a younger age and so wouldn't have as much mileage as Matsuzaka, he's been throwing quite a bit so far. He's had 3 200 IP seasons in the NPB, which is as many as Matsuzaka (and Daisuke had 2 more seasons in Japan). He even threw 165 pitches in a start back in 2008: http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/07/npb-bullet-points-20080724/#content

 

Wow, didn't realize he had been worked that hard. I've not been a big fan of pouring that much cash into Darvish from the start (despite his ceiling), but this really makes me concerned about it. I'll be plenty happy if we can net Wilson instead.

 

On a side note, you may have no idea on this, but is there any kind of movement in Japan to lessen the pitch counts and innings pitched on these guys? It seems like they'd have access to some of the more advanced research that's been done state-side.

[toonsterwu]

Dew, while Darvish would be coming over to the U.S. at a younger age and so wouldn't have as much mileage as Matsuzaka, he's been throwing quite a bit so far. He's had 3 200 IP seasons in the NPB, which is as many as Matsuzaka (and Daisuke had 2 more seasons in Japan). He even threw 165 pitches in a start back in 2008: http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/07/npb-bullet-points-20080724/#content

 

Wow, didn't realize he had been worked that hard. I've not been a big fan of pouring that much cash into Darvish from the start (despite his ceiling), but this really makes me concerned about it. I'll be plenty happy if we can net Wilson instead.

 

On a side note, you may have no idea on this, but is there any kind of movement in Japan to lessen the pitch counts and innings pitched on these guys? It seems like they'd have access to some of the more advanced research that's been done state-side.

 

to the best of my knowledge, no. Due to the differences in how they structure their clubs, and how pitchers can often go 6-7 days in between starts, there hasn't been, to the best of my knowledge, that level of concern about the high pitch counts.

[toonsterwu]

To take things away from the Asian focus for a second, I do wonder if they might pursue some of the minor leaguers from their previous organizations if they need a fallback plan. I mean, someone like James Darnell isn't a superb outfield fit. Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish would seem likely to be blocked in Boston.

 

Not suggesting this as Plan A, or B, or C, or D ... just a deep backup plan.

[Guest]

Well, I think adjusting to the ball is a significant enough thing, but guys can learn and adapt, and those that can't, well they can't. I mean, there were a couple Taiwanese kids in recent years that never really took to the American ball, to the best of my knowledge. Their ability to spin their breaking balls aren't as sharp because the balls aren't as tight to grip for them, and their velocities were never as high as some of their international performances. Again, does come down to the individual, hence why earlier, I said one of the bigger issues to me wouldn't necessarily be overall size, but rather hand size. For all I know, Chen might have a big enough hand. Sure feels weird to talk about these things in such a way. Chin-Hui Tsao was an example of a guy who had no issue with the ball ... but had a lot of other issues, particularly medically. Here was a kid who was reported as able to hit mid-90's with nasty movement ... and he had mid-90's with nasty movement. Chien-Ming Wang was always an odd case to me - he had a fairly good breaking ball in international play as a kid, but it never did as well coming up the Yankees system, but he had the hand size to throw that nasty sinker and it became his go to pitch (of course, some have argued that the Yankees didn't develop his pitches well enough, as he was showing a fairly good slider this year).

 

I'm actually somewhat in-different on Chen. For the right price, sure, but he's not a guy I'm going to be too concerned with. You can find guys like Chen. In fact, the Cubs Chen, Hung-Wen Chen, has similar stuff (but since he's a righty, the velo is decidedly fringy as a starter, whereas if Wei-Yin can pick his velo back up to what it was in the past, it'd be average for a lefty).

 

As a total side note, and I'm no expert on this, so someone else should chime in, but I don't love Chen's arm action. He has that similar little motion that Nick Struck (and Dillon Maples has), at least from what I've seen. Not the end of the world, but some guys have had some health issues (Tommy Hanson comes to mind in regards to somewhat similar issues).

 

No way, I think Wei-Yin throws routinely low 90s and Hung-Wen tops out at 90. Hung-Wen has a wider arsenal though, imo.

[dew1679666265]

As a total side note, and I'm no expert on this, so someone else should chime in, but I don't love Chen's arm action. He has that similar little motion that Nick Struck (and Dillon Maples has), at least from what I've seen. Not the end of the world, but some guys have had some health issues (Tommy Hanson comes to mind in regards to somewhat similar issues).

 

Thanks, I've not looked too deeply into Japanese league pitchers coming to the states in the past so this is interesting information. The thing that really intrigues me about Chen is the youth, lack of mileage on his arm, and that he'd likely come pretty cheap. The stats I'm seeing have him at 486 innings in 4 seasons prior to 2011 and no 200 inning seasons (188 is the max) and since Daisuke's actual contract was just $8.7 million in AAV, Chen may come even more cheaply than that.

 

He's a gamble, but one that doesn't come with much commitment and that's good if we end up making major commitments to Pujols/Prince and Wilson.