Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[dew1679666265]

I think they could, if constructed that way, but Theo will be building in the interest of the future.

 

You can build the team with the future in mind without forfeiting next season. That's the beauty of a Pujols/Prince or Wilson signing is those guys will be on the team and likely highly productive for the next 4-5 years and we should be easily contending by then. What we shouldn't be doing is overpaying on short term deals and marginal upgrades and giving up too much in trades.

[dew1679666265]

Well ... I think they are looking for impact more than steadying influence. That's been Rizzo's mantra for the last couple of seasons - trying to land that impact starter. Furthermore, hard to know how much Oswalt has left. I have doubts Buehrle would head this far east, but that's just a hunch (and if my calculations on the Cardinals are correct, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there on a hometown discount type of deal).

 

The Nats are so deep, though, that one thing is, I wonder if they might get gun-shy about over-spending after the Werth deal.

 

At some point with the Nats I start to wonder if they're being aggressive just to be aggressive. As good as their system is, it seems like it'd be in their best interest to have a little patience and develop some of these kids. I think they spent just to spend last year in signing Werth and going after an elite starter like Wilson or Darvish seems to be a bit unnecessary with Strasburg and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation.

[toonsterwu]

Their payroll was at 110 mil this past year, roughly. Cots has them on the hook for roughly 75 mil. I'm not going to go through and do the calculations, so if that's off, then oops.

 

Assuming that DeWitt and Co. decide that they can keep it at 110-115, that's 35-40 mil to play with. Assuming that Pujols gets a backloaded deal of some type, they could fit him in and still have around 10-15 mil to play with (let's assume that he gets some sort of 28-30 mil AAV, for 2012, it could be closer to 25 mil). Not enough to address enough holes and account for possible raises through arbitration, but they do have a strong system and there are a couple places where some fat could probably be cut. In a weak pitching market, it's not impossible to envision a market developing for veterans like Lohse/Westbrook. They have Wainwright coming back. Removing one of them, if possible, could save them either 8.5 mil (westbrook) or 12 mil ish (Lohse). Even if we assume they have to eat a tiny bit of money, that's still significant savings.

 

Rhodes option didn't vest, Theriot could be non-tendered. Their bullpen is fairly young. If they wanted to, Schumaker and McClellan could both be non-tendered. Descalso could probably take over at 2nd base, and Freese/Craig have shown enough to imagine they'll get continued playing time. I imagine Furcal's option will be declined. That leaves relatively big holes at ... shortstop and ... well, that's about it, and they'd still have money to play with. Obviously, depth is of some concern, but there are a couple upper level pieces that could probably fill some roles.

 

I think the Cardinals could easily keep Pujols and still have a strong squad next year if they wanted. Add in this surprising World Series run and push to a Game 7, and I'll be surprised if Pujols is in another uniform.

 

Once they pick up Molina's option, because let's face it, they're bringing back Molina, they'll be at 80 million for 8 players. If their payroll is going to be at that 115 mark, it becomes incredibly tight to sign Pujols and address any of their other potential issues(2B, SS, CF, SP). They can probably do it, but it would come with some pain.

 

I still think it isn't that bad provided they can clear a starting pitcher's contract, Lohse or Westbrook, preferably Lohse for them. Descalso can take over at one middle infield job, and the return of Wainwright gives them an upgrade off the bat. They have enough guys to slot in to the 5th spot - Lance Lynn comes to mind, Shelby Miller could be ready by midseason. I don't think they will go into the offseason feeliing like they need to upgrade in CF - I think they'll give Jon Jay the job. Not saying I think Jay will be as solid offensively as he was this year, just that they will feel comfortable there.

 

If they can clear a SP contract in Lohse or Westbrook, which seems likely, and non-tender Theriot, Schumaker, and McClellan, which is possible, that gives them two Arb 1 raises, which shouldn't be much, and roughly 10-15 million (depending on how much they clear ... and this presumes that DeWitt maintains roughly the SQ on payroll ... if he raises it a bit to fit Pujols, that changes things) to address one main need (shortstop) and add depth or the bullpen. It really doesn't sound like that bad a situation.

 

Now, if they can't clear a SP contract, then it becomes tighter. That would leave them roughly only 5-10 mil to address one main positional need and depth. But then they would have a rotation of Carpenter/Wainwright/Garcia/Lohse/Westbrook - a bit unnecessary when they have arms ready to step in to challenge for the 5th spot. And I have a hard time thinking that they couldn't clear Lohse or Westbrook's 1 year left a bit in this bad pitching market.

[toonsterwu]

Well ... I think they are looking for impact more than steadying influence. That's been Rizzo's mantra for the last couple of seasons - trying to land that impact starter. Furthermore, hard to know how much Oswalt has left. I have doubts Buehrle would head this far east, but that's just a hunch (and if my calculations on the Cardinals are correct, it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up there on a hometown discount type of deal).

 

The Nats are so deep, though, that one thing is, I wonder if they might get gun-shy about over-spending after the Werth deal.

 

At some point with the Nats I start to wonder if they're being aggressive just to be aggressive. As good as their system is, it seems like it'd be in their best interest to have a little patience and develop some of these kids. I think they spent just to spend last year in signing Werth and going after an elite starter like Wilson or Darvish seems to be a bit unnecessary with Strasburg and Zimmermann at the top of the rotation.

 

The Lerners want to win now. When you add in that Milone has fringe stuff (but commands it well) and that Peacock's stuff as a starter is more debatable than many fans are rating him (fastball was VERY straight at times, changeup seemed fairly iffy), it actually makes quite a bit of sense for them to go after another starter. It'd be nice if they didn't - that would increase our chances of signing Wilson a fair amount. That said, with Strasburg coming back from TJ, and with Zimmerman shut down early this year because he reached his innings limit, it's quite possible they won't want to over-extend either guy significantly next year. Factor in Detwiler being raw as a starter, and Lannan being fringy (although I think they'll try to get rid of Lannan's deal), along with the need for starting depth, and I think it actually makes a ton of sense provided they have the money to spend.

 

It's really not hard to see them as a breakthrough team next year that challenges for the playoffs. Werth will likely rebound offensively a bit, so if Morse maintains his performance (understandably debatable), that gives them an excellent middle of the order.

[Guest]

Again, no one's waving their hands and saying "nope, sorry, they can't afford Pujols". But what you're describing is taking a bunch of small hits in order to make the money work. Sure Lynn or a partial season of Miller can fill in for Lohse, but then they get put in a 2011 Cubs situation the moment someone gets hurt. The point is that Pujols is possible for the Cardinals, but it's pretty much all that's possible if they do get him.

[dew1679666265]

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as that bad a pitching market? There's not a lot in the way of elite talent, with really only Wilson and maybe Darvish (depending on your view of him) as top end guys. But after those two you have Oswalt, Buerhle, and Kuroda as older but still quite productive starters that'll likely come without great cost or commitment. Then you have the decent arms that could put together solid seasons in Maholm, Chen, Jackson, Marquis, and Vazquez. And then finally the cheap, lottery ticket type guys who could rebound in Francis, Wang, Webb, Harden, and Duchsherer.

 

It's not a great SP market by any means, but I don't think it's so bad that a guy like Kyle Lohse, who you have to give up prospects for, will be coveted. He and Chen are actually quite similar (Chen's a year older, but both had good years last year after a bunch of mediocrity prior) and you can have Chen without giving up prospects. I don't know that trading Lohse and his contract is that much of an easy thing for St. Louis.

[toonsterwu]

Again, no one's waving their hands and saying "nope, sorry, they can't afford Pujols". But what you're describing is taking a bunch of small hits in order to make the money work. Sure Lynn or a partial season of Miller can fill in for Lohse, but then they get put in a 2011 Cubs situation the moment someone gets hurt. The point is that Pujols is possible for the Cardinals, but it's pretty much all that's possible if they do get him.

 

Well,

 

1. If you think the situations are similar once an injury occurs, then why would Pujols, in the off-season, leave, provided the money is similar, with the Cardinals coming off a World Series appearance and possible victory? Keep in mind the post I was responding to initially - Tim said he felt that Berkman's resigning meant they were giving up on Pujols.

 

2.

The point is that Pujols is possible for the Cardinals, but it's pretty much all that's possible if they do get him.

 

The thing is, they don't have many on-paper needs, and 10-15 million to address one need and depth. That's more than enough, and that presumes DeWitt doesn't raise payroll.

 

3. Nvm, I read it as 2012's rotation for some reason, but re-reading, I see you were talking about 2011 Cubs. That said, I still don't see the comparison as that great in that, in Shelby, you have one of the top arms in the minors, a potential ace level starter, whereas the 2011 Cubs had the Casey Coleman's of the world as fall back. For a FA studying a team's system, what's more enticing?

 

Again, I just don't see how signing Berkman means they are giving up on Pujols. They can sign him and still address their one main need entering the year in the middle infield. Also, the hits seem fairly reasonable - theriot/schumaker/mcclellan aren't exactly guys that people would get too worked up over in regards to a team's depth, leaving the only question as the rotation.

Edited October 28, 2011 by toonsterwu

[dew1679666265]

It's really not hard to see them as a breakthrough team next year that challenges for the playoffs. Werth will likely rebound offensively a bit, so if Morse maintains his performance (understandably debatable), that gives them an excellent middle of the order.

 

To explain myself better, I don't really question their need for a veteran starter, just their need for a splashy type signing. I admittedly don't know much about their payroll "cap" but unless they're willing to climb close to the upper tier of the Cubs and Phillies, locking into another long term contract with Wilson seems short sighted. If I were them I'd probably push hard for whichever of the mid-tier guys (Buerhle, Oswalt, Jackson) that I liked the most and thought was a realistic option to sign. A top of the order of Strasburg/Zimmermann/Oswalt is pretty solid and gives you payroll flexibility going forward. If you're in contention at the deadline, you have the prospects to target a SP in trade if you're concerned about Strasburg/Zimmermann or want more depth behind the trio.

 

Maybe I'm misreading their situation, but that seems like the smarter path to take for the situation the Nats are in rather than making a splashy move that may be unnecessary.

[toonsterwu]

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as that bad a pitching market? There's not a lot in the way of elite talent, with really only Wilson and maybe Darvish (depending on your view of him) as top end guys. But after those two you have Oswalt, Buerhle, and Kuroda as older but still quite productive starters that'll likely come without great cost or commitment. Then you have the decent arms that could put together solid seasons in Maholm, Chen, Jackson, Marquis, and Vazquez. And then finally the cheap, lottery ticket type guys who could rebound in Francis, Wang, Webb, Harden, and Duchsherer.

 

It's not a great SP market by any means, but I don't think it's so bad that a guy like Kyle Lohse, who you have to give up prospects for, will be coveted. He and Chen are actually quite similar (Chen's a year older, but both had good years last year after a bunch of mediocrity prior) and you can have Chen without giving up prospects. I don't know that trading Lohse and his contract is that much of an easy thing for St. Louis.

 

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

 

Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington.

[toonsterwu]

It's really not hard to see them as a breakthrough team next year that challenges for the playoffs. Werth will likely rebound offensively a bit, so if Morse maintains his performance (understandably debatable), that gives them an excellent middle of the order.

 

To explain myself better, I don't really question their need for a veteran starter, just their need for a splashy type signing. I admittedly don't know much about their payroll "cap" but unless they're willing to climb close to the upper tier of the Cubs and Phillies, locking into another long term contract with Wilson seems short sighted. If I were them I'd probably push hard for whichever of the mid-tier guys (Buerhle, Oswalt, Jackson) that I liked the most and thought was a realistic option to sign. A top of the order of Strasburg/Zimmermann/Oswalt is pretty solid and gives you payroll flexibility going forward. If you're in contention at the deadline, you have the prospects to target a SP in trade if you're concerned about Strasburg/Zimmermann or want more depth behind the trio.

 

Maybe I'm misreading their situation, but that seems like the smarter path to take for the situation the Nats are in rather than making a splashy move that may be unnecessary.

 

Indications have been that they are willing to push closer to 100 mil. It wouldn't take it to Cubs/Phillies levels, but it would be a significant boost. Their opening day payroll was around 68 mil. For 2012, they have around 44 mil committed as of now, according to Cots. They have Arb 1 raises for Clippard/Zimmerman (for some reason, I thought Clppard was Arb 2 ... they may use Clippard as a trade chip this offseason though), Arb 2 raises for Morse/Lannan, and Arb 3 raises on Gorzelanny/Slaten. Nothing really key, and the only FA of note that they reportedly have a key interest in bringing back is Wang. The one ugly deal, besides Werth, as of now is LaRoche's, but even that isn't that bad (9 million left) and they could use him at first. If they find a way to let Lannan/Gorzelanny's contract go, that would give them a ton of space to work with. There also aren't many key youngsters that they are likely to push for long term deals buying out arb years - Espinosa may be the main one as they want to see if Desmond can be more consistent.

 

In short, they don't even have to go near 100 mil. They have a lot of money to play with and can probably sign a guy down without impacting their long term future. That explains why a lot of folks are expecting them to be aggressive in FA.

[dew1679666265]

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as that bad a pitching market? There's not a lot in the way of elite talent, with really only Wilson and maybe Darvish (depending on your view of him) as top end guys. But after those two you have Oswalt, Buerhle, and Kuroda as older but still quite productive starters that'll likely come without great cost or commitment. Then you have the decent arms that could put together solid seasons in Maholm, Chen, Jackson, Marquis, and Vazquez. And then finally the cheap, lottery ticket type guys who could rebound in Francis, Wang, Webb, Harden, and Duchsherer.

 

It's not a great SP market by any means, but I don't think it's so bad that a guy like Kyle Lohse, who you have to give up prospects for, will be coveted. He and Chen are actually quite similar (Chen's a year older, but both had good years last year after a bunch of mediocrity prior) and you can have Chen without giving up prospects. I don't know that trading Lohse and his contract is that much of an easy thing for St. Louis.

 

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

 

Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington.

 

Even if you take all of those guys out, you still have these guys I see as being better than Lohse in a neutral setting (i.e. neither cost prospects):

Jackson

Francis

Maholm

Bedard (forgot him initially)

 

When you factor in that you have to give up prospects for Lohse and you don't for a FA, the list expands a bit:

Chen

Duchsherer

Marquis

 

Maybe some teams will overrate Lohse, but I just don't see him being particularly appealing, especially early in the offseason when the Cards would need to dump his contract.

[toonsterwu]

Am I the only one who doesn't see this as that bad a pitching market? There's not a lot in the way of elite talent, with really only Wilson and maybe Darvish (depending on your view of him) as top end guys. But after those two you have Oswalt, Buerhle, and Kuroda as older but still quite productive starters that'll likely come without great cost or commitment. Then you have the decent arms that could put together solid seasons in Maholm, Chen, Jackson, Marquis, and Vazquez. And then finally the cheap, lottery ticket type guys who could rebound in Francis, Wang, Webb, Harden, and Duchsherer.

 

It's not a great SP market by any means, but I don't think it's so bad that a guy like Kyle Lohse, who you have to give up prospects for, will be coveted. He and Chen are actually quite similar (Chen's a year older, but both had good years last year after a bunch of mediocrity prior) and you can have Chen without giving up prospects. I don't know that trading Lohse and his contract is that much of an easy thing for St. Louis.

 

Well, you have two starters that have limited markets (Kuroda/Vazquez) unless they change their minds (both guys have indicated LA or Florida as their only options - Vazquez has gone as far to say that he likely would retire, I believe). Oswalt and Buehrle could also have limited markets, based on past rumors. Some teams don't have the money to go after Wilson/Darvish. Lohse is probably on par with the other guys, if not a notch below, but at one year, if you can get him at, say, 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent, that might be more appealing than some of the other options. Don't know until ... well ... until the offseason starts, but as of now, doesn't seem that unreasonable to me.

 

Wang may have a limited market as well in that, while his agent will push, there's a lot of expectations that off his strong showing late in the year plus the Nationals support of him, that any reasonable deal and he's back in Washington.

 

Even if you take all of those guys out, you still have these guys I see as being better than Lohse in a neutral setting (i.e. neither cost prospects):

Jackson

Francis

Maholm

Bedard (forgot him initially)

 

When you factor in that you have to give up prospects for Lohse and you don't for a FA, the list expands a bit:

Chen

Duchsherer

Marquis

 

Maybe some teams will overrate Lohse, but I just don't see him being particularly appealing, especially early in the offseason when the Cards would need to dump his contract.

 

Don't get me wrong, I don't think Lohse is appealing, but that list isn't all that enticing. 1 year of Lohse or multiple years of the above arms?

 

If Maholm or Francis are better than Lohse, it's not by that much. You really can't depend on Duchscherer. He didn't pitch all of 2011, and even when he pitched, I don't think I'd take him over Lohse, to be honest. He's also only had one year as a starter. I'd put Marquis/Lohse about on par in terms of talent, and I think there would be many teams that would rather take a look at Lohse as a starter over someone like Chen for 2012.

 

Of course, this assumes you aren't paying 12 mil for Lohse. But if you can get him at closer to 8 mil without giving up much in the way of talent ... I think that holds a different level of appeal compared to some of the guys on that list. I think Edwin Jackson is clearly a notch ahead for me, and I think someone rolls the dice on Bedard's talent before Lohse, but the rest of that list isn't that impressive, and if you have to commit more than one year, I could see some teams opting for someone like Lohse (or Westbrook) instead.

 

But only time will tell. And heck, for all we know, DeWitt could bump payroll up and make this a moot point.

[dew1679666265]

In short, they don't even have to go near 100 mil. They have a lot of money to play with and can probably sign a guy down without impacting their long term future. That explains why a lot of folks are expecting them to be aggressive in FA.

 

It was further down the road that I was referencing the big payroll boost for. Look at it this way: They'll have roughly $40 million tied up in two players (Werth and Wilson) and there's a good chance Werth will be fairly bad at 35 years old, certainly very overpaid. Zimmermann is Arb 3 eligible at that point and I'm not sure what Strasburg's contract situation is like, though Cot's has his current deal expiring after next year. Ryan Zimmerman will be a free agent that offseason as well and Bryce Harper may have earned a raise from his $2 million contract at that point.

 

Now if they can continue to raise payroll past $100 million over the next few years, it may not be that big a deal. But if they're hovering around $100 million and have close to half of that tied up in a likely unproductive Werth and a likely beginning to decline (probably gracefully) Wilson, they're going to struggle to keep all of the young guys they'll want and fill in around them.

[Guest]

Again, no one's waving their hands and saying "nope, sorry, they can't afford Pujols". But what you're describing is taking a bunch of small hits in order to make the money work. Sure Lynn or a partial season of Miller can fill in for Lohse, but then they get put in a 2011 Cubs situation the moment someone gets hurt. The point is that Pujols is possible for the Cardinals, but it's pretty much all that's possible if they do get him.

 

Well,

 

1. If you think the situations are similar once an injury occurs, then why would Pujols, in the off-season, leave, provided the money is similar, with the Cardinals coming off a World Series appearance and possible victory? Keep in mind the post I was responding to initially - Tim said he felt that Berkman's resigning meant they were giving up on Pujols.

St Louis could have avoided getting to this point with Pujols if they were willing to pay him more last year. They weren't. It's possible that the WS appearance / victory change things from one side or the other, but I think that if St Louis was comfortable offering Albert the money & years he wants, they would have done so already. Signing Berkman gives them a 1B to plug in and take a harder line in the negotiations. It's a gut feel on my part, but I don't think he stays if he gets to the FA period.

[Sammy Sofa]

Again, no one's waving their hands and saying "nope, sorry, they can't afford Pujols". But what you're describing is taking a bunch of small hits in order to make the money work. Sure Lynn or a partial season of Miller can fill in for Lohse, but then they get put in a 2011 Cubs situation the moment someone gets hurt. The point is that Pujols is possible for the Cardinals, but it's pretty much all that's possible if they do get him.

 

Well,

 

1. If you think the situations are similar once an injury occurs, then why would Pujols, in the off-season, leave, provided the money is similar, with the Cardinals coming off a World Series appearance and possible victory? Keep in mind the post I was responding to initially - Tim said he felt that Berkman's resigning meant they were giving up on Pujols.

St Louis could have avoided getting to this point with Pujols if they were willing to pay him more last year. They weren't. It's possible that the WS appearance / victory change things from one side or the other, but I think that if St Louis was comfortable offering Albert the money & years he wants, they would have done so already. Signing Berkman gives them a 1B to plug in and take a harder line in the negotiations. It's a gut feel on my part, but I don't think he stays if he gets to the FA period.

 

Right. Everything that has happened this year to this point seems expressly counter to the idea that they're either going to pay him significantly more or that he's going to come way down and take their offer.

[dew1679666265]

But only time will tell. And heck, for all we know, DeWitt could bump payroll up and make this a moot point.

 

Yeah, this could be a meaningless conversation if the Cards bump payroll. On Lohse, I just really don't think much of him. I'd take him over Chen if everything else is neutral, but as soon as the Cardinals start to ask for any prospects of significance, I lose interest in Lohse. The benefit other teams will have over the Cardinals is they can wait out some of the guys like Chen who may be looking to cash in on his big year. If the Cardinals want to retain Pujols and keep any value Lohse may have in trade, they need to move him relatively quickly, I'd think.

 

Also, while I agree Duchscherer is a gamble to stay healthy, Lohse is just as big a gamble to not be terrible. In Duchscherer's one full year starting (2008), he had a better ERA than Lohse has ever had, better FIP than Lohse has had before last year and a better xFIP than all but two of Lohse's seasons. If not for the injury concerns, I'd take Duchscherer in a heartbeat over Lohse.

 

Clearly we're discussing a bunch of mediocre pitchers here for the most part, so it's certainly possible a team or two will value the Cardinals' junk over FA junk, but I'm just not as sure as you are that it'll be easy to move Lohse in a trade.

[toonsterwu]

The injury concerns with Duschscherer are pretty gigantic, though. I don't believe he was tossing the ball late in the year. If he was, it was in September. But the point was, it's possible some team thinks that the Cardinals junk at 1 year is better than other junk at multiple years. That said, it's also quite possible that they could try and move Westbrook instead, and I think that would be a guy that would definitely get some interest, despite his age and decline.

 

I think the Lerners are pushing hard enough to win now that they'll figure out long range impact later. Financially, there could be some big problems with the heavy push now, as attendance hasn't been improving in DC, last I checked.

[dew1679666265]

The injury concerns with Duschscherer are pretty gigantic, though. I don't believe he was tossing the ball late in the year. If he was, it was in September. But the point was, it's possible some team thinks that the Cardinals junk at 1 year is better than other junk at multiple years. That said, it's also quite possible that they could try and move Westbrook instead, and I think that would be a guy that would definitely get some interest, despite his age and decline.

 

I still think you're underrating teams' ability to be patient with some of these guys (Chen in particular) and the Cards' need to move Lohse/Westbrook rather quickly. You've also got all the Japanese arms I haven't mentioned yet - Chen, Wada, Iwakuma - as better options than Lohse as well. It's not that I don't think the Cards could move Lohse, I think they could eventually, I just don't see them being able to do it with ease or quickly as you suggested.

 

I think the Lerners are pushing hard enough to win now that they'll figure out long range impact later. Financially, there could be some big problems with the heavy push now, as attendance hasn't been improving in DC, last I checked.

 

If they're that desperate to win now, then yeah I could see them following up the Werth mistake with another unnecessary big contract. I don't think it's the right choice, but desperation could lead them do it anyway.

[Guest]

We need a secondary arm to go along with Wilson and I'm highly intrigued by Japanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He's just 26 years old and unlike Danks (who I like quite a bit) he would cost only money and not prospects. In his two years primarily starting, he's posted an ERA of 1.54 and WHIP of 0.93 in 2009 and 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2010. Clearly this would depend largely on what Theo/Hoyer and their scouts think of him, but this could be a shrewd move on the part of the new Cubs management.

 

Steve Wilson has heavily scouted Wei-Yin Chen so I think the Cubs will show some interest. Back in 2009 when it seemed possible Chen might be able to come to the U.S., 18 teams scouted him and I'd imagine the Red Sox were one of them.

 

And unlike Yu Darvish, there's no posting fee involved. I suspect he's more a 3/4 starter, unlike Danks. If you want to contend in 2012, Chen can't be your primary SP acquisition.

[dew1679666265]

Spend it when the right fit comes along. CJs been great in his 2 years as a starter, especially in a hitters park but I really don't see him as a 18-20 mil guy. If it comes down to that, I'd just as soon let the Yankees, Red Sox, and Nationals fight it out for him and hope that next year we can get someone like Cain, Lincecum, Hamels, or Danks.

 

Three problems with this stance.

1) Wilson is worth close to or as much as every starter you listed

2) My guess is at least two of those names never come available (Lincecum and Hamels in particular)

3) We can get Danks and Wilson both at the same time

 

CJ Wilson: 5.3 avg WAR past two seasons; 31 years old; 708 total MLB innings

Matt Cain: 4.5 avg WAR past two seasons; 28 years old; 1,317 total MLB innings + 2012 season

Lincecum: 4.7 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,028 total MLB innings + 2012 season

Cole Hamels: 4.3 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,161 total MLB innings + 2012 season

Zack Greinke: 4.5 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 1,279 total MLB innings + 2012 season

Anibal Sanchez: 4.1 avg WAR past two seasons; 29 years old; 673 total MLB innings + 2012 season

 

That's the 2012 offseason free agent starting pitching class best of the best (age is what they'll be during 2013 season). Wilson is comparable to every one of them. Given the extreme unknown as to whether any of them will be available (Greinke's most likely if not traded), I don't see it being a good decision to pass on Wilson for the purposes of giving the money to one of these guys next year, since Wilson's just as good or better.

[dew1679666265]

Steve Wilson has heavily scouted Wei-Yin Chen so I think the Cubs will show some interest. Back in 2009 when it seemed possible Chen might be able to come to the U.S., 18 teams scouted him and I'd imagine the Red Sox were one of them.

 

And unlike Yu Darvish, there's no posting fee involved. I suspect he's more a 3/4 starter, unlike Danks. If you want to contend in 2012, Chen can't be your primary SP acquisition.

 

Right, that's why I referred to him as a secondary arm to go along with Wilson. I like the relative lack of innings on both Wilson and Chen's arms and if Theo's next great competitive edge is pitcher health, these two would be pretty good guys to target.

 

I wouldn't make Chen the primary SP acquisition, though. Now if we miss on Wilson, I'd be fine with targeting Danks and Chen together. The Wilson/Chen route is preferable, though, since we'd keep our prospects in that scenario.

[toonsterwu]

We need a secondary arm to go along with Wilson and I'm highly intrigued by Japanese lefty Wei-Yin Chen. He's just 26 years old and unlike Danks (who I like quite a bit) he would cost only money and not prospects. In his two years primarily starting, he's posted an ERA of 1.54 and WHIP of 0.93 in 2009 and 2.87 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 2010. Clearly this would depend largely on what Theo/Hoyer and their scouts think of him, but this could be a shrewd move on the part of the new Cubs management.

 

Steve Wilson has heavily scouted Wei-Yin Chen so I think the Cubs will show some interest. Back in 2009 when it seemed possible Chen might be able to come to the U.S., 18 teams scouted him and I'd imagine the Red Sox were one of them.

 

And unlike Yu Darvish, there's no posting fee involved. I suspect he's more a 3/4 starter, unlike Danks. If you want to contend in 2012, Chen can't be your primary SP acquisition.

 

3/4 is a more optimistic than I think. It's debatable if he has plus velo on the fastball in America (with the different balls), and I haven't heard anyone suggest that his fastball has great movement. His breaking ball is decent, but again, ball changes makes it hard to project, and typically, it's tougher for the Asian guys to grip the American balls (obviously, depends on the individual). I know online reports have a forkball, but I don't know if that's as far developed as the reports suggest. The change-up is probably below average. Feels more like a 5th starter, a guy with good control, or a pen arm to me, at least, in his first year or two.

 

That said, who knows.

[dew1679666265]

3/4 is a more optimistic than I think. It's debatable if he has plus velo on the fastball in America (with the different balls), and I haven't heard anyone suggest that his fastball has great movement. His breaking ball is decent, but again, ball changes makes it hard to project, and typically, it's tougher for the Asian guys to grip the American balls (obviously, depends on the individual). I know online reports have a forkball, but I don't know if that's as far developed as the reports suggest. The change-up is probably below average. Feels more like a 5th starter, a guy with good control, or a pen arm to me, at least, in his first year or two.

 

That said, who knows.

 

I trust you and Raisin at this stuff more than myself, but my first impression was a 5th starter his first year or two, but with the upside of a 3 starter. At 26 he has time to develop some of the secondary pitches and adjust to the American game. Am I off base in thinking that?

[davell]

There's another pitcher out there I've totally forgotten about. Hisoshi Iwakuma. Oakland won his sole bidding rights last year with a posting fee of 19.1 mill. Without knowing anything about this guy, that's a pretty hefty posting fee. And they couldn't agree on terms, so either he's pretty damn good or he's severely overvaluing himself. But, he's out there and this time he's a 10 year vet, so no posting fee required.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

You know what Japenese pitcher wouldnt have trouble with the American ball? 6'5" 220, long limbed Yu Darvish. I'm starting to turn to that guy, money be damned (unless it's just plain too much).