Constructing the 2012 Cubs

[davell]

I still think he winds up back in Texas, probably at a slight discount from what we're thinking. Maybe 5 for 75 or so, just because he's comfortable there.

[dew1679666265]

I still think he winds up back in Texas, probably at a slight discount from what we're thinking. Maybe 5 for 75 or so, just because he's comfortable there.

 

I'd put strong odds on that too. Things keep looking better for the Cubs if he truly becomes a FA though.

[davell]

How about this for an offseason: trade Szczur/Cashner/Vitters/Lake for Jurrjens and Prado. Puts our payroll at 110. Sign Fielder, first year at 15. 125 mill at this point. Sign Sizemore and Bedard to put payroll around 140. Trade Byrd off, payroll back towards 135. Play Prado at 3B, Sizemore in RF, and you've added Jurrjens and Bedard to rotation. I think that's a playoff contender myself and we're still not killing ourselves longterm. The Atlanta guys have 2 years of arb left and Sizemore and Bedard would most likely be on one year deals. I think a rotation of Garza/Jurrjens/Dempster/Bedard/Zambrano looks pretty solid and you've got Wells as your swing guy. If you add a 4th OFer type to insure Sizemore for around a mill or so, I really like it.

[dew1679666265]

How about this for an offseason: trade Szczur/Cashner/Vitters/Lake for Jurrjens and Prado. Puts our payroll at 110. Sign Fielder, first year at 15. 125 mill at this point. Sign Sizemore and Bedard to put payroll around 140. Trade Byrd off, payroll back towards 135. Play Prado at 3B, Sizemore in RF, and you've added Jurrjens and Bedard to rotation. I think that's a playoff contender myself and we're still not killing ourselves longterm. The Atlanta guys have 2 years of arb left and Sizemore and Bedard would most likely be on one year deals. I think a rotation of Garza/Jurrjens/Dempster/Bedard/Zambrano looks pretty solid and you've got Wells as your swing guy. If you add a 4th OFer type to insure Sizemore for around a mill or so, I really like it.

 

I posted a FanGraphs article in the Jurrjens/Prado thread about Jurrjens and concerns about him. I'm just not that big a fan. He's a really nice pitcher and young, but doesn't strike very many people out and his velocity has been consistently dropping for a few years now. I just don't see him as a guy who's certain to have sustained success and there's too much risk that he's not the premium talent we'd be paying for.

 

I mentioned in the other thread as well that I'd prefer Headley to Prado since Headley is younger and profiles to more power than Prado - Prado had a .390 SLG in the minors, while Headley was at .500.

[toonsterwu]

I think I'd rather have Wells in the rotation ahead of Jurrjens, particularly when you factor in the costs associated with both, but also even just judging both guys by their own abilities. I'm just not a big fan. When he was able to reach mid-90's occasionally, he was mildly interesting. Now? I think he's getting hype as a result of being on good Braves teams.

 

I'm also not that interested in Prado. On the cheap? Sure. I mean, it's not that I have great love for Vitters, and I sure have my concerns on Lake/Szczur, as well as concerns that Cashner might not be a starter, but that's a pretty big package to give up for an end of the rotation arm and a decent starter, IMO.

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Brian Cashman confirmed (the obvious) that the Yankees will sit down with CJ Wilson and his agent as soon as possible.

[dew1679666265]

Brian Cashman confirmed (the obvious) that the Yankees will sit down with CJ Wilson and his agent as soon as possible.

 

That makes me a bit sad if they're seriously interested. It may (hopefully) just be an exploratory type discussion, though.

[Illini Iceman]

Brian Cashman confirmed (the obvious) that the Yankees will sit down with CJ Wilson and his agent as soon as possible.

 

That makes me a bit sad if they're seriously interested. It may (hopefully) just be an exploratory type discussion, though.

 

Of course they are interested. That rotation was a problem last year with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon having better years than they could be expected to have in 2012. I think they will pay whatever it takes and they only way they don't get him is if he decides he doesn't want to go to New York (for non-monetary reasons).

[Cubswin11]

Brian Cashman confirmed (the obvious) that the Yankees will sit down with CJ Wilson and his agent as soon as possible.

 

That makes me a bit sad if they're seriously interested. It may (hopefully) just be an exploratory type discussion, though.

 

Of course they are interested. That rotation was a problem last year with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon having better years than they could be expected to have in 2012. I think they will pay whatever it takes and they only way they don't get him is if he decides he doesn't want to go to New York (for non-monetary reasons).

Yeah, it goes without saying that if it comes down to just money the Yankees are going to get Wilson. I think they will obviously go hard after Wilson but also make a run at Oswalt (haven't they tried to trade for him in the past multiple times?).

[Have a seat, Neifi]

Just to follow up, Cashman has indeed contacted the agent for Wilson and Oswalt: http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2011/11/yankees_make_contact_with_agen.html?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

 

To echo a previous poster, not sure why or how this should surprise anyone. The Yankees have all the resources in the world and a huge need for #2 starter. The Red Sox are essentially in the same boat. If the Cubs are going to somehow nab Wilson, we're going to have outbid the traditional heavy hitters without question.

[dew1679666265]

Of course they are interested. That rotation was a problem last year with Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon having better years than they could be expected to have in 2012. I think they will pay whatever it takes and they only way they don't get him is if he decides he doesn't want to go to New York (for non-monetary reasons).

 

It doesn't necessarily surprise me that they'd be interested, but I wondered (and still do) exactly how interested they'd be. Obviously if they decide they want him, they can outbid anybody else in the league. However, there's always been a difference of opinions between Cashman and the Steinbrenners on doling out large sums of money on a whim. It's possible that with the new extension and raise to CC and with 3 players signed to huge deals through 2016-2017 and $172 committed in 2012 and $126 committed in 2013, they may avoid the bidding war for Wilson and go with the lesser commitment to Oswalt or Buerhle.

 

Whether they pursue Wilson probably depends on two things: 1) Do the Steinbrenners demand it; 2) What does Cashman think of Ivan Nova. Cashman has a fiscally responsible side to him, unlike the Steinbrenners, and if he has a high view of Nova, he may choose to go with Oswalt or Buerhle and make less of a commitment. But if he sees 2011 as Nova's ceiling, he may make the commitment to get the elite talent.

 

Darvish is also a possibility that could limit their interest in Wilson. The Steinbrenners may get excited about the splashy signing and insist that Cashman make that move or, depending largely on their presence in Asia, Cashman may like the upside of Darvish.

[17 Seconds]

This is why I haven't even been thinking about Wilson. I think the Yankees are going to overpay him.

[dew1679666265]

This is why I haven't even been thinking about Wilson. I think the Yankees are going to overpay him.

 

It wouldn't surprise me either way, to be honest. They have a need for him, but 4 players locked up to huge deals through 2016-2017 is a lot, even for the Yankees.

 

Their major future commitments:

ARod: through 2017, age 37 in 2012 - 29/28/25/21/20/20

CC: through 2016 w/2017 vesting option, age 32 in 2012 - 23/23/23/23/25/25

Teix: through 2016, age 32 in 2012 - 22.5/22.5/22.5/22.5/22.5

Wilson (hypothetical, just for the sake of it, assume 5/85 deal): through 2016, age 32 in 2012 - 12/13/15/20/25

 

That would be $90.5 million committed in 2016 to 4 players - one age 41 and three age 36. I know it's the Yankees, but that's a lot of cash invested in old players.

[toonsterwu]

There is going to be one more major commitment for the Yankees, and that's Cano's contract, whenever that gets done. That said, there's a reason Cashman has been pushing so hard to protect his chips unless it's for elite players. He wants to have young talent ready to balance the aging guys exorbitant costs.

[Conky]

I count 23 Type A free agents if the site I saw was correct. This means the Yankees are allowed to sign 2 Type A. Really gets tiresome seeing them allowed to spend whatever they want year in and year out. Only saving grace is watching the Bronx Bombers fail more often than not. Still and all, the game would be much more entertaining/ competitive if there were a salary cap/ floor in place. Funny that every other major sport recognizes this fact, but Baseball owners/ players refuse to see the light.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I count 23 Type A free agents if the site I saw was correct. This means the Yankees are allowed to sign 2 Type A. Really gets tiresome seeing them allowed to spend whatever they want year in and year out. Only saving grace is watching the Bronx Bombers fail more often than not. Still and all, the game would be much more entertaining/ competitive if there were a salary cap/ floor in place. Funny that every other major sport recognizes this fact, but Baseball owners/ players refuse to see the light.

 

Ooh, I'd forgotten about the limit on Type As. I wonder if that will impact the Cubs' decisions or some of the fantasy offseasons we've been talking about.

[SouthSideRyan]

I count 23 Type A free agents if the site I saw was correct. This means the Yankees are allowed to sign 2 Type A. Really gets tiresome seeing them allowed to spend whatever they want year in and year out. Only saving grace is watching the Bronx Bombers fail more often than not. Still and all, the game would be much more entertaining/ competitive if there were a salary cap/ floor in place. Funny that every other major sport recognizes this fact, but Baseball owners/ players refuse to see the light.

 

Why would a Cubs fan want a salary cap?

[Conky]

I count 23 Type A free agents if the site I saw was correct. This means the Yankees are allowed to sign 2 Type A. Really gets tiresome seeing them allowed to spend whatever they want year in and year out. Only saving grace is watching the Bronx Bombers fail more often than not. Still and all, the game would be much more entertaining/ competitive if there were a salary cap/ floor in place. Funny that every other major sport recognizes this fact, but Baseball owners/ players refuse to see the light.

 

Why would a Cubs fan want a salary cap?

 

Because I'm a fan of the game as well as the team. For one thing, a salary cap would help to mediate runaway salary demands by players. Note that a salary cap could be set at any arbitrary number. No one is saying set the cap at whatever the Pirates/ Rays of the world can afford. However, having one or two or even three teams that are head and shoulders above the rest of the league in terms of spending is just not a level playing field.

 

I understand those that want to see the Cubs become the Yankees of the National League. Not everyone sees that as a good thing. The Cubs have one of the best front offices in the game assembled. A salary cap of $150M or even $175M would benefit the Cubs rather than hurt them. My point was about limiting the spending of the Yankees/ Red Sox first and foremost.

[Post Count Padder]

This is why I haven't even been thinking about Wilson. I think the Yankees are going to overpay him.

They're the Yankees. No way they go into next year with CC, Nova and hope for the best from Burnett and minor leaguers/minor pickups like Garcia and Colon. It was their downfall last year. They're gonna go guns blazing (joke intended) for Wilson. If that fails, like it did last year with Lee, I could see them trading for an ace.

[NewCubsDynasty]

This is why I haven't even been thinking about Wilson. I think the Yankees are going to overpay him.

 

It wouldn't surprise me either way, to be honest. They have a need for him, but 4 players locked up to huge deals through 2016-2017 is a lot, even for the Yankees.

 

Their major future commitments:

ARod: through 2017, age 37 in 2012 - 29/28/25/21/20/20

CC: through 2016 w/2017 vesting option, age 32 in 2012 - 23/23/23/23/25/25

Teix: through 2016, age 32 in 2012 - 22.5/22.5/22.5/22.5/22.5

Wilson (hypothetical, just for the sake of it, assume 5/85 deal): through 2016, age 32 in 2012 - 12/13/15/20/25

 

That would be $90.5 million committed in 2016 to 4 players - one age 41 and three age 36. I know it's the Yankees, but that's a lot of cash invested in old players.

 

It's the Yankees, they would still have $112 million (more assuming inflation) to spend on the rest of the team. Six of the playoff teams from this year were constructed for less money.

[Sammy Sofa]

WHAT?!?! But you can't construct a team with over $100 million left over for the payroll! Impossible!!!

[dew1679666265]

It's the Yankees, they would still have $112 million (more assuming inflation) to spend on the rest of the team. Six of the playoff teams from this year were constructed for less money.

 

Welcome to the forum!

 

As for your point, that's why it wouldn't surprise me if they pursue and sign Wilson. The hefty, long term contracts to old players may give them pause, however.

[Tryptamine]

Topic is a bit old, but relevant. I think my estimations are realistic.

 

1B- Pujols(26M) 9/235

2B- K.Johnson(8M) 2/16

SS- Castro

3B- Headley (Vitters,Dolis,Rhee) Too much?

C- Geo

RF- B.Jackson

CF- Cespedes(8M) 7/50

LF- Ethier (12M) 5/60

 

SP:

Hamels(19M) 5/95 I don't think Phillies can afford him

Garza

Darvish(19M) 40M posting fee with 5/55 deal

Gio (Szczur,McNutt,Hernandez) Enough?

Cashner/Wells

 

Closer: Marshall, maybe Cash if his arm can't hold up.

 

The Cubs have I believe 43M available this year with another 10M likely thanks to the CBA. Add in the money saved when you shop Marmol for prospects and that should be enough, or very close to enough, to cover the Pujols,Johnson,Cespedes and Darvish signings. In 2013 they have in the neighborhood of 40M to spend. Hamels/Either will eat the majority of that with arbitration eating the rest. Granted the lineup lacks the true second impact bat, but the depth is awesome. Combine that with a pitching staff likely in the top few in baseball and I think you have a team that can challenge for a championship. Thoughts?

[seanimal]

Thoughts?

 

i'd like to see sandberg win minor league manager of the year with that iowa cubs team

 

edit: oh, and you're talking about running the gauntlet, more or less. i see, at best, half of those moves happening.

[UMFan83]

So wait, you say they will have something like $60 million available, but then you propose almost $100 million in additions. Do you expect a $200 mil payroll?