Cubs Top Prospect Lists (BA top 30, Sickels top 21, BP - 11)

[Outshined_One]

I'd say our system is well-below average. You look at other teams around the 6-7 spots and you're dazzled, with us, it's blah.

 

Yes, but when you look at the systems in the 10-15 range and 15-20 range, you're not exactly blown away, either.

[jersey cubs fan]

In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten:

- Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful.

 

Dopirak is 3 years removed from the only season that resembled huge. He was horrible in 2002 and 2003, as well as 2005 and 2006. In 2007, he was mediocre as a 23 year old repeating high A, and horrible in AA. He stinks.

[rawaction]

In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten:

- Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful.

 

Dopirak is 3 years removed from the only season that resembled huge. He was horrible in 2002 and 2003, as well as 2005 and 2006. In 2007, he was mediocre as a 23 year old repeating high A, and horrible in AA. He stinks.

 

I'd like to see you say that to his face! Naw, just kidding. He is a big boy though.

[CubinNY]

I like Josh Kroger a lot. I think he can be a pretty decent 4th or 5 outfielder and if nothing else a decent trade chip.

[nilodnayr]

ugh, our system sucks

 

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks.

I agree - not the strongest organization out there, but I might say it's stronger than it was last year. The main difference is we're getting much older. If appropriate ages are 24 in AAA, 23 in AA, 22 in A+, etc. then many of our prospects are now becoming old for their levels. I think the Cubs brass are banking on those guys who tend to "figure it out" later in their minor league careers (i.e. Geoff Jones, Kevin Hart, etc.). They also are showing an attraction to pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery, making them a year and a half to two years behind schedule (i.e. Adam Harben, Ed Campusano, etc.). They have also drafted college kids more heavily than high school kids recently which keeps ages much higher than normal.

 

In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten:

- Now I'm no expert in all those new age stats, but Donald Veal had a 1.67 ERA in 80.2 IP, striking out 88, with a WHIP of 1.09 at Daytona as a 22 year old (appropriate age) just a year ago (2006). It's too early to give up on him. He should be given a chance this year to make amends.

- Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful.

- Pawelek had a really tough year in 2007, which is why he is 29th on my list. But he is a 1st round pick only three seasons ago. He is only 21 and had two solid years out of three. It's not time to give up on him, but his mechanics and his stuff seem to be regressing. If the Cubs had a decent minor league pitching coordinator, he should be able to diagnose the problem and make suggestions to Pawelek to fix it. Once the mechanics are fixed, the stuff should come back.

 

I didn't mean my comment as a slight against your list and I also firmly believe in the 2 year rule. What I did mean was that formerly very highly thought of prospects have not developed. Now this is true of every organization, but in the cubs case, these were guys with gigantic question marks that people just ignored. Veal can't throw it over the plate, Dope doesn't even know what the plate is and Pawelek hasn't seen a plate since South Bend. We don't have some magic farm system that is correcting these glaring errors. We just ignore them and cross our fingers that they'll develop.

[Post Count Padder]

I like Josh Kroger a lot. I think he can be a pretty decent 4th or 5 outfielder and if nothing else a decent trade chip.

I feel the same. He's nice insurance for an injury, and if he can hit well at AAA this season, he could be a valuable call-up/ trade piece.

[Wrigley Rat]

ugh, our system sucks

 

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks.

I agree - not the strongest organization out there, but I might say it's stronger than it was last year. The main difference is we're getting much older. If appropriate ages are 24 in AAA, 23 in AA, 22 in A+, etc. then many of our prospects are now becoming old for their levels. I think the Cubs brass are banking on those guys who tend to "figure it out" later in their minor league careers (i.e. Geoff Jones, Kevin Hart, etc.). They also are showing an attraction to pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery, making them a year and a half to two years behind schedule (i.e. Adam Harben, Ed Campusano, etc.). They have also drafted college kids more heavily than high school kids recently which keeps ages much higher than normal.

 

In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten:

- Now I'm no expert in all those new age stats, but Donald Veal had a 1.67 ERA in 80.2 IP, striking out 88, with a WHIP of 1.09 at Daytona as a 22 year old (appropriate age) just a year ago (2006). It's too early to give up on him. He should be given a chance this year to make amends.

- Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful.

- Pawelek had a really tough year in 2007, which is why he is 29th on my list. But he is a 1st round pick only three seasons ago. He is only 21 and had two solid years out of three. It's not time to give up on him, but his mechanics and his stuff seem to be regressing. If the Cubs had a decent minor league pitching coordinator, he should be able to diagnose the problem and make suggestions to Pawelek to fix it. Once the mechanics are fixed, the stuff should come back.

 

I didn't mean my comment as a slight against your list and I also firmly believe in the 2 year rule. What I did mean was that formerly very highly thought of prospects have not developed. Now this is true of every organization, but in the cubs case, these were guys with gigantic question marks that people just ignored. Veal can't throw it over the plate, Dope doesn't even know what the plate is and Pawelek hasn't seen a plate since South Bend. We don't have some magic farm system that is correcting these glaring errors. We just ignore them and cross our fingers that they'll develop.

Thanks - I didn't take it as a slight; my posts just sometimes sound defensive. I just like to rationalize my thoughts in an attempt to see if anyone agrees or if they have convincing arguments to get me to change my mind!

[Wrigley Rat]

Someone who has a BA Premium account (used to have one - not anymore), could you read this article about Josh Donaldson and let us know if it mentions where he should probably start the 2008 season? I heard it mentions the Cubs plan on keeping him behind the plate for this season at least. Thanks in advance.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/features/265189.html

[UK1679666180]

Background: Previously a third baseman, Donaldson started catching as a sophomore at Auburn in 2006. The position shift and a strong summer in the Cape Cod League sent his draft stock skyrocketing, and he went 48th overall in June. After signing for $652,500, he rated as the short-season Northwest League's top position prospect and led the circuit with a .470 on-base percentage.

 

Strengths: Donaldson provides more offense and athleticism than most catchers. He's aggressive and looks to pull pitches for power early in counts, but he also adjusts when pitchers get ahead of him, shortening his stroke and using the opposite field. He controls the strike zone and projects as a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers per season. He has slightly above-average arm strength and threw out 38 percent of basestealers in his pro debut. His speed is average.

 

Weaknesses: His inexperience shows behind the plate, though the Cubs believe he'll become a solid defender in time. He committed 11 passed balls in 45 games and sometimes hurried his release and undermined his arm strength. He made progress in both areas during the summer.

 

The Future: Chicago has built up its catching depth, so it may take things slow with Donaldson and let him concentrate o his work behind the plate. He'll probably open 2008 in low Class A.

[Wrigley Rat]

Thanks Ping!

[Vinestal]

What were Vitters total numbers in pro ball last year? I know it was a small sample size but I remember day after day being completely saddened by 0 for 4s. I know he comes with alot of hype but didnt he completely stink in the time that he played as a pro last year? I guess I'll be alot more excited about him when he starts mashing rookie ball pitchers.

 

.067/.094/.067 (30 AB) at Mesa

.190/.261/.190 (21 AB) at Boise

 

Of course he did badly last year, he was rushed into play after not playing for 3 months. His 51 AB mean little.

 

 

How many months not playing will he spend between those at bats and his next? Im not sure what thats got to do with it. We have had so many high school position player flops that Im prepared for this one to turn out the same as the rest. It was only 51 at bats but still those are some aweful numbers for a guy thats as hyped as Vitters has been. Where do you think he will start the year? Think he'll see Daytona at all this year? Id love to get a chance to see him in person.

[Guest]

What were Vitters total numbers in pro ball last year? I know it was a small sample size but I remember day after day being completely saddened by 0 for 4s. I know he comes with alot of hype but didnt he completely stink in the time that he played as a pro last year? I guess I'll be alot more excited about him when he starts mashing rookie ball pitchers.

 

.067/.094/.067 (30 AB) at Mesa

.190/.261/.190 (21 AB) at Boise

 

Of course he did badly last year, he was rushed into play after not playing for 3 months. His 51 AB mean little.

 

 

How many months not playing will he spend between those at bats and his next? Im not sure what thats got to do with it. We have had so many high school position player flops that Im prepared for this one to turn out the same as the rest. It was only 51 at bats but still those are some aweful numbers for a guy thats as hyped as Vitters has been. Where do you think he will start the year? Think he'll see Daytona at all this year? Id love to get a chance to see him in person.

 

0 months, he'll have probably 1+ month at Fitch at the very least before Peoria starts their season. You really don't think getting a 3 month layoff would hurt a player?

 

He'll probably start at Boise or Peoria, if he gets to Daytona this year something really good happened.

[Revolver IV]

Mike (Kansas City): KLaw, knowing what you know now, who would be top 4 players picked in the 2007 draft?

 

Keith Law: Are you saying money is not a question? I'd probably go Wieters, Price, Vitters, Porcello, Heyward, Parker, Dominguez, Main, Detwiler ... let's say Alderson 10th, he's rising in my eyes.

 

From Keith Law's chat Friday.

[Guest]

Mike (Kansas City): KLaw, knowing what you know now, who would be top 4 players picked in the 2007 draft?

 

Keith Law: Are you saying money is not a question? I'd probably go Wieters, Price, Vitters, Porcello, Heyward, Parker, Dominguez, Main, Detwiler ... let's say Alderson 10th, he's rising in my eyes.

 

From Keith Law's chat Friday.

 

No Moustakas?

[Post Count Padder]

Background: Previously a third baseman, Donaldson started catching as a sophomore at Auburn in 2006. The position shift and a strong summer in the Cape Cod League sent his draft stock skyrocketing, and he went 48th overall in June. After signing for $652,500, he rated as the short-season Northwest League's top position prospect and led the circuit with a .470 on-base percentage.

 

Strengths: Donaldson provides more offense and athleticism than most catchers. He's aggressive and looks to pull pitches for power early in counts, but he also adjusts when pitchers get ahead of him, shortening his stroke and using the opposite field. He controls the strike zone and projects as a .280 hitter with 15-20 homers per season. He has slightly above-average arm strength and threw out 38 percent of basestealers in his pro debut. His speed is average.

 

Weaknesses: His inexperience shows behind the plate, though the Cubs believe he'll become a solid defender in time. He committed 11 passed balls in 45 games and sometimes hurried his release and undermined his arm strength. He made progress in both areas during the summer.

 

The Future: Chicago has built up its catching depth, so it may take things slow with Donaldson and let him concentrate o his work behind the plate. He'll probably open 2008 in low Class A.

Good info. I wonder what happens if/when he gets to the majors and is blocked by Soto.

[UK1679666180]

That's a long time to look forward.

 

It's a win/win either way.

[craig]

He'll probably start at Boise or Peoria, if he gets to Daytona this year something really good happened.

 

Fleita talked about Vitters yesterday. I inferred that the default is Boise, unless he really rocks in camp. Talked about how you don't need to rush him; about how with Reynold, Marquis Smith, Lansford, that 3B is deep and packed; that Southern Cal boy isn't used to 20 degrees in Beloit April. So I'm guessing Vitters will need to "Wow" them to make Peoria. And if he does, you can assume he's had a rocking camp.

[badnews]

He'll probably start at Boise or Peoria, if he gets to Daytona this year something really good happened.

 

Fleita talked about Vitters yesterday. I inferred that the default is Boise, unless he really rocks in camp. Talked about how you don't need to rush him; about how with Reynold, Marquis Smith, Lansford, that 3B is deep and packed; that Southern Cal boy isn't used to 20 degrees in Beloit April. So I'm guessing Vitters will need to "Wow" them to make Peoria. And if he does, you can assume he's had a rocking camp.

 

When I think of depth of a system, I think of when the Rockies had Jeff Baker, Garrett Atkins, and Ian Stewart all at third base, or when the Angels had Erick Aybar, Hanley Statia, and Sean Rodriguez, all at shortstop. Kyle Reynolds, Smith, and Lansford seem more like warm bodies than anything to call great depth. The Lansford talk especially confuses me, he seems like organizational fodder.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What were Vitters total numbers in pro ball last year? I know it was a small sample size but I remember day after day being completely saddened by 0 for 4s. I know he comes with alot of hype but didnt he completely stink in the time that he played as a pro last year? I guess I'll be alot more excited about him when he starts mashing rookie ball pitchers.

 

.067/.094/.067 (30 AB) at Mesa

.190/.261/.190 (21 AB) at Boise

 

Of course he did badly last year, he was rushed into play after not playing for 3 months. His 51 AB mean little.

 

 

How many months not playing will he spend between those at bats and his next? Im not sure what thats got to do with it. We have had so many high school position player flops that Im prepared for this one to turn out the same as the rest. It was only 51 at bats but still those are some aweful numbers for a guy thats as hyped as Vitters has been. Where do you think he will start the year? Think he'll see Daytona at all this year? Id love to get a chance to see him in person.

 

0 months, he'll have probably 1+ month at Fitch at the very least before Peoria starts their season. You really don't think getting a 3 month layoff would hurt a player?

 

He'll probably start at Boise or Peoria, if he gets to Daytona this year something really good happened.

 

It wasn't just not playing for 3 months, he wasn't really doing much of anything before he signed for fear of hurting himself. Quite reasonable for him to struggle those first 50 PAs.

[Guest]

Got my prospect handbook!

 

The Cubs Top 30 are:

 

1. Josh Vitters, 3B

2. Geovany Soto, C

3. Tyler Colvin, OF

4. Jose Ceda, RHP

5. Sean Gallagher, RHP

6. Donald Veal, LHP

7. Josh Donaldson, C

8. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

9. Tony Thomas, 2B

10. Kevin Hart, RHP

11. Billy Petrick, RHP

12. Eric Patterson, 2B/OF

13. Kyler Burke, OF

14. Chris Huseby, RHP

15. Wellington Castillo, C

16. Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP

17. Robert Hernandez, RHP

18. Sam Fuld, OF

19. Jake Fox, OF/1B/C

20. Larry Suarez, RHP

21. Ryan Acosta, RHP

22. James Russell, LHP

23. Alex Maestri, RHP

24. Darwin Barney, SS

25. Jose Ascanio, RHP

26. Rocky Roquet, RHP

27. Mark Holliman, RHP

28. Josh Lansford, 3B

29. Steve Clevenger, C/1B

30. Tim Lahey, RHP

 

If he had signed in time, Kosuke Fukudome would have been plugged in at 1 and everyone moves down 1. Also, Kyle Russell and Josh Kroeger were two that were originally in the top 30 so we actually have BA's top 33 Cubs prospects now.

[Guest]

BA rated the Cubs system at #20.

 

If there are any guys you're interested in reading more about out of the top 10, I can summarize what they wrote when I get home. Glad to see Rhee and Hernandez in their top 20 and Acosta at 21.

[CoolHandLuke]

Mike (Kansas City): KLaw, knowing what you know now, who would be top 4 players picked in the 2007 draft?

 

Keith Law: Are you saying money is not a question? I'd probably go Wieters, Price, Vitters, Porcello, Heyward, Parker, Dominguez, Main, Detwiler ... let's say Alderson 10th, he's rising in my eyes.

 

From Keith Law's chat Friday.

 

No Moustakas?

 

 

Vlad (New Jersey): Keith, during the last week's chat you listed your top ten players from the 2007 draft, but did not mention Moustakas. Did you forget him or is there a reason why you did not include him? Thanks.

 

Keith Law: (1:49 PM ET ) He just didn't make the cut.

 

Keith Law is pretty ridiculous if you ask me.

[CoolHandLuke]

Did you order your Handbook from BA? I have it pre-ordered through amazon, and I cannot wait for it to arrive.

[Guest]

Yeah, I read that from Keith Law earlier this week (as I commented in the mega Roberts thread). What a ridiculous comment from Law. Dominguez, Detwiler and Alderson over Moustakas? Wow.

 

Yeah, I ordered mine off the web site, didn't realize it came yesterday because I forgot to check my mail and saw it this morning as I was leaving for the office.

[Wrigley Rat]

If he had signed in time, Kosuke Fukudome would have been plugged in at 1 and everyone moves down 1. Also, Kyle Russell and Josh Kroeger were two that were originally in the top 30 so we actually have BA's top 33 Cubs prospects now.

First of all, thanks a ton Raisin!

Polite correction: The 30+ guys were Josh Kroeger and Kyle Reynolds (not Kyle Russell).

Seriously though, thanks for taking the time to type this up for us. I'm still waiting for my Prospect Handbook from Barnes & Noble (I knew it would be late).