Cubs Top Prospect Lists (BA top 30, Sickels top 21, BP - 11)

[craig]

On Soto: he had a lucky year. He figured things out. (But not to the degree that he'll sustain that kind of production again). And no, I don't think it's the result of PEDs. I'm not sure of any of the steroid or HGH reports have highlighted guys getting much smaller rather than bigger, which is what happened to Soto.

 

I don't expect him to hit to the 07 level this year, or perhaps ever again. But his numbers at both Iowa and with Cubs were so spectacular, he's got a lot of room to slump and still be pretty good, for a catcher.

[Outshined_One]

My position on Colvin sure has flipped around since then.

[nilodnayr]

My position on Colvin sure has flipped around since then.

 

Yeah, I now believe that in addition to being overrated in the cubs eyes, yes also overrated in BAs eyes.

 

Sure, hes a 5 tool player, he just doesnt do any of them well.

[Guest]

My position on Colvin sure has flipped around since then.

 

Yeah, I now believe that in addition to being overrated in the cubs eyes, yes also overrated in BAs eyes.

 

Sure, hes a 5 tool player, he just doesnt do any of them well.

 

Heh, he's been overrated by BA ever since his NWL campaign in 2006.

[Outshined_One]

My position on Colvin sure has flipped around since then.

 

Yeah, I now believe that in addition to being overrated in the cubs eyes, yes also overrated in BAs eyes.

 

Sure, hes a 5 tool player, he just doesnt do any of them well.

 

He gets a lot of heat around here and I think there's a decent chance he'll develop into a halfway decent OF. However, the more I look at his numbers, the more down on him I get. Maybe he "looks like a baseball player" or whatever, but it's so rare to see a guy make it to the majors with those kinds of walk rates and play at an above average level.

[nilodnayr]

My position on Colvin sure has flipped around since then.

 

Yeah, I now believe that in addition to being overrated in the cubs eyes, yes also overrated in BAs eyes.

 

Sure, hes a 5 tool player, he just doesnt do any of them well.

 

He gets a lot of heat around here and I think there's a decent chance he'll develop into a halfway decent OF. However, the more I look at his numbers, the more down on him I get. Maybe he "looks like a baseball player" or whatever, but it's so rare to see a guy make it to the majors with those kinds of walk rates and play at an above average level.

 

The clincher is that he'll have to move from CF to a corner. His offense was going to be passable as a CF, but it will be putrid as a corner OF.

[craig]

The clincher is that he'll have to move from CF to a corner.

 

Why is that?

[CuseCubFan69]

The clincher is that he'll have to move from CF to a corner.

 

Why is that?

 

Yeah, I thought he had decent speed, correct?

[CubColtPacer]

There's many scouts who believe that Colvin will eventually have to move to a corner as his frame fills out (he's still incredibly thin right now). However, many scouts also believe that process will increase his power. So he's either a CF with decent power right now, or he fills out and becomes a corner outfielder with a little more power.

[CuseCubFan69]

There's many scouts who believe that Colvin will eventually have to move to a corner as his frame fills out (he's still incredibly thin right now). However, many scouts also believe that the filling out of his frame will increase his power. So he's either a CF with decent power right now, or he fills out and becomes a corner outfielder with a little more power.

 

So he's going to fill out like me or with muscle? I'd like to see him stay in CF for as long as possible.

[Guest]

The clincher is that he'll have to move from CF to a corner.

 

Why is that?

 

Agreed, it's nowhere near a certainty that he'd be moving from CF.

[badnews]

What I don't like about Colvin is that wise-guy Wilken had to put that Alex Rios comp out there. So I guess that means, like Rios, we're legally required to have him sit in a lineup for two full years as dead weight so he can turn into Rios his third year. Supposedly. Blargh.

[nilodnayr]

What I don't like about Colvin is that wise-guy Wilken had to put that Alex Rios comp out there. So I guess that means, like Rios, we're legally required to have him sit in a lineup for two full years as dead weight so he can turn into Rios his third year. Supposedly. Blargh.

 

Rios' problem was he hit everything in the ground. All of the sudden he started hitting everything in the air and voila. Colvin's problem is he doesn't take walks. If he all o fhte sudden gets some patience and starts taking walks then I can see him being a useful player. Short of that, I don't see him being an average regular.

[nilodnayr]

There's many scouts who believe that Colvin will eventually have to move to a corner as his frame fills out (he's still incredibly thin right now). However, many scouts also believe that process will increase his power. So he's either a CF with decent power right now, or he fills out and becomes a corner outfielder with a little more power.

 

Regardless of power, hes sporting a .032 IsoD in a season and a half of minor league ball. Thats somewhat palpable for a guy who only strikes out 10% of the time, but Colvin does not have that type of contact rate.

 

If the power develops he'll be a 270/300/460 type of guy. La-dee-freakin-da.

[Post Count Padder]

There's many scouts who believe that Colvin will eventually have to move to a corner as his frame fills out (he's still incredibly thin right now). However, many scouts also believe that process will increase his power. So he's either a CF with decent power right now, or he fills out and becomes a corner outfielder with a little more power.

 

Regardless of power, hes sporting a .032 IsoD in a season and a half of minor league ball. Thats somewhat palpable for a guy who only strikes out 10% of the time, but Colvin does not have that type of contact rate.

 

If the power develops he'll be a 270/300/460 type of guy. La-dee-freakin-da.

If only he could fill out and decide to take a walk or two.

 

.270/.330/.500

 

I'll take it.

[sneakypower]

what a difference a good glove makes. if he plays great defense he might be worth a $70m contract from the Angels.

[Outshined_One]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

[CuseCubFan69]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

If Jones played a great CF it wouldn't hurt as much though but I agree those numbers are not something to build on.

[nilodnayr]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

If Jones played a great CF it wouldn't hurt as much though but I agree those numbers are not something to build on.

 

Is Colvin a superior defender to Jones? I thought they were about equal (if not Jones being a bit better with a working shoulder) even at this point in both of their careers.

[CuseCubFan69]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

If Jones played a great CF it wouldn't hurt as much though but I agree those numbers are not something to build on.

 

Is Colvin a superior defender to Jones? I thought they were about equal (if not Jones being a bit better with a working shoulder) even at this point in both of their careers.

 

I don't know. I was hoping in a Cub fan type of way!

[jersey cubs fan]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

It's possible to still get value out of his career. The key is to keep him around for his peak years, limit the financial commitment, and be prepared to cut ties when he becomes expensive. Jacque Jones level production, at minimum wage, and as the 5th or 6th best bat on the team, isn't bad. That's especially true if he's a CF. You'd then have to commit financially to having greater production elsewhere. Ideally you'd trade him as he approaches 30 and before he hits his last year of arbitration. Maybe you can sucker some team into getting quality. But even if you just let him walk, by and large that would have to be considered a successful investment.

[TruffleShuffle]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

It's possible to still get value out of his career. The key is to keep him around for his peak years, limit the financial commitment, and be prepared to cut ties when he becomes expensive. Jacque Jones level production, at minimum wage, and as the 5th or 6th best bat on the team, isn't bad. That's especially true if he's a CF. You'd then have to commit financially to having greater production elsewhere. Ideally you'd trade him as he approaches 30 and before he hits his last year of arbitration. Maybe you can sucker some team into getting quality. But even if you just let him walk, by and large that would have to be considered a successful investment.

 

the problem is, what if felix pie turns out to be a good everyday player. i mean, i guess that's not a problem, but colvin will in no way be good enough to man one of the corner spots. i suppose he could be a 4th outfielder, but I'd just rather trade him now before everyone realizes that he isn't that good.

[jersey cubs fan]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

It's possible to still get value out of his career. The key is to keep him around for his peak years, limit the financial commitment, and be prepared to cut ties when he becomes expensive. Jacque Jones level production, at minimum wage, and as the 5th or 6th best bat on the team, isn't bad. That's especially true if he's a CF. You'd then have to commit financially to having greater production elsewhere. Ideally you'd trade him as he approaches 30 and before he hits his last year of arbitration. Maybe you can sucker some team into getting quality. But even if you just let him walk, by and large that would have to be considered a successful investment.

 

the problem is, what if felix pie turns out to be a good everyday player. i mean, i guess that's not a problem, but colvin will in no way be good enough to man one of the corner spots. i suppose he could be a 4th outfielder, but I'd just rather trade him now before everyone realizes that he isn't that good.

 

Fukudome and Soriano aren't going to allow him to play a role in the corner. If Felix turns out to be good, you trade Colvin. But that is a long way away, and by no means anything close to a certainty. As you pointed it, it's not really a problem.

 

I look at it this way. I think Colvin is a low risk low reward guy right now. I think he's a safe bet to do something at the major league level. So, you try and strike gold with Pie for now, and keep letting Colvin develop - this also allows you to delay his arbitration clock, and makes it easier to keep him during what should be his peak years.

[nilodnayr]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

It's possible to still get value out of his career. The key is to keep him around for his peak years, limit the financial commitment, and be prepared to cut ties when he becomes expensive. Jacque Jones level production, at minimum wage, and as the 5th or 6th best bat on the team, isn't bad. That's especially true if he's a CF. You'd then have to commit financially to having greater production elsewhere. Ideally you'd trade him as he approaches 30 and before he hits his last year of arbitration. Maybe you can sucker some team into getting quality. But even if you just let him walk, by and large that would have to be considered a successful investment.

 

the problem is, what if felix pie turns out to be a good everyday player. i mean, i guess that's not a problem, but colvin will in no way be good enough to man one of the corner spots. i suppose he could be a 4th outfielder, but I'd just rather trade him now before everyone realizes that he isn't that good.

 

Fukudome and Soriano aren't going to allow him to play a role in the corner. If Felix turns out to be good, you trade Colvin. But that is a long way away, and by no means anything close to a certainty. As you pointed it, it's not really a problem.

 

I look at it this way. I think Colvin is a low risk low reward guy right now. I think he's a safe bet to do something at the major league level. So, you try and strike gold with Pie for now, and keep letting Colvin develop - this also allows you to delay his arbitration clock, and makes it easier to keep him during what should be his peak years.

 

Well considering we took him with our only pick out of the first 148 in the draft, I wouldn't exactly call it a low risk move.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jacque Jones' career line: .280/.329/.455

 

I can't say these projections make me all that excited.

 

It's possible to still get value out of his career. The key is to keep him around for his peak years, limit the financial commitment, and be prepared to cut ties when he becomes expensive. Jacque Jones level production, at minimum wage, and as the 5th or 6th best bat on the team, isn't bad. That's especially true if he's a CF. You'd then have to commit financially to having greater production elsewhere. Ideally you'd trade him as he approaches 30 and before he hits his last year of arbitration. Maybe you can sucker some team into getting quality. But even if you just let him walk, by and large that would have to be considered a successful investment.

 

the problem is, what if felix pie turns out to be a good everyday player. i mean, i guess that's not a problem, but colvin will in no way be good enough to man one of the corner spots. i suppose he could be a 4th outfielder, but I'd just rather trade him now before everyone realizes that he isn't that good.

 

Fukudome and Soriano aren't going to allow him to play a role in the corner. If Felix turns out to be good, you trade Colvin. But that is a long way away, and by no means anything close to a certainty. As you pointed it, it's not really a problem.

 

I look at it this way. I think Colvin is a low risk low reward guy right now. I think he's a safe bet to do something at the major league level. So, you try and strike gold with Pie for now, and keep letting Colvin develop - this also allows you to delay his arbitration clock, and makes it easier to keep him during what should be his peak years.

 

Well considering we took him with our only pick out of the first 148 in the draft, I wouldn't exactly call it a low risk move.

 

That's a bit of a different point, I mean we didn't have Soriano or Kosuke when we drafted Colvin.