Cubs Top Prospect Lists (BA top 30, Sickels top 21, BP - 11)

[Guest]

BP now uses Kevin Goldstein who's a former BA guy, he's definitely not very stats-oriented.

[badnews]

I don't understand fully how Baseball America works a lot of the time. Guys like Will Inman and Sean Gallagher put up great numbers and they dump on them.

 

But remember when Ervin Santana was the best rated pitching prospect in the minors? His minor league career looks nice, but it doesn't look like a knockout. It doesn't say "Best pitching prospect in baseball" to me. Then there's young shortstops with mediocre numbers they love. Joaquin Arias - why has this guy been gracing their lists forever? "You don't need to put up good numbers, we believe in you." Huh. Alcides Escobar - does this guy have to start to hit at some point? If just being young for your level is enough, why wasn't Asdrubal Cabrera ever as highly touted as Arias and Escobar? And Adam Miller, they love him but that's a lot of inconsistency and other problems.

 

Also, it seems like they went overboard with their Jeremy Sowers love. A sub-1.50 ERA and a 4.99 K/9 looks dodgy even in the minors. How does a guy like that end up so highly rated by them, when a guy like Bobby Livingston wouldn't make a Top 200 prospects list probably?

 

Their love affair with Neil Walker I just don't understand. He was a poor catcher, now he's a 3b, and those hitting numbers look mediocre. How has this guy made three straight Top 100 lists? How did Ryan Sweeney make #55 on the 2007 list? I think they gave too many free passes to the DVD trio as well.

[Guest]

I don't remember Ervin Santana ever being regarded as anything close to the #1 pitching prospect in the minors.

[badnews]

I guess you're right. I think that must've been a Rotoworld list or one of Mayo's MLB.com lists. The highest he ever got was #29 on BA's 2004 list.

[badnews]

Just an aside, was anyone else surprised Mitch Atkins wasn't on Baseball America's Top 30 or 32? He's not dazzling but he's a nice guy to have in the system.

[Wrigley Rat]

Just an aside, was anyone else surprised Mitch Atkins wasn't on Baseball America's Top 30 or 32? He's not dazzling but he's a nice guy to have in the system.

 

Not too surprised. He didn't make my Top 30 list either, but he probably would have been in the top 40.

 

Currently, Atkins' fastball sits around 87-92 mph and he throws a curve and changeup. He feels that his curve is his best pitch, but others tend to think he still needs to work on improving it. His changeup is a work in progress, and his fastball speed isn't top notch (not sure about movement).

 

From the sound of it, Atkins has a decent chance to further develop. He could still add speed to his fastball as he improves his mechanics, but he will need to really work at improving his off-speed pitches. I personally see him topping out as a 5th starter, or he could end up as a long man out of the bullpen. Not really projections worthy of a spot on the Top 30 list.

 

But who knows! If he can show dominance at AA this year, all bets are off. His projections will be reconsidered and he could shoot up the list fast! My bet is that this year will be a struggle for him. I have him penciled in as the 5th starter in Tennessee, but there are others who may bump him to the bullpen if he starts out slowly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Who are the 4 starters in Tennessee pushing Atkins that far down?

 

In Iowa you have Hart, Samardzija, Gallagher, Holliman/castoff, and I guess another castoff(Walrond/O'Malley/Mathes/Schappert/etc, or maybe Marmol if they want to stretch him out).

 

That leaves in Tennessee: Veal(who could be moved to the pen), and a bunch of people who have no business forcing someone as successful as Atkins to the pen. In no particular order, Berg, Santo, Estrada, Reinhard, Taylor, and maybe someone who'd skip Daytona like Hernandez or Pina.

 

I just don't see how there's that many arms more valuable than Atkins to put him in that type of jeopardy of losing a rotation spot.

[Guest]

Who are the 4 starters in Tennessee pushing Atkins that far down?

 

In Iowa you have Hart, Samardzija, Gallagher, Holliman/castoff, and I guess another castoff(Walrond/O'Malley/Mathes/Schappert/etc, or maybe Marmol if they want to stretch him out).

 

That leaves in Tennessee: Veal(who could be moved to the pen), and a bunch of people who have no business forcing someone as successful as Atkins to the pen. In no particular order, Berg, Santo, Estrada, Reinhard, Taylor, and maybe someone who'd skip Daytona like Hernandez or Pina.

 

I just don't see how there's that many arms more valuable than Atkins to put him in that type of jeopardy of losing a rotation spot.

 

Samardzija should be at Tennessee. Veal will start (as of now).

 

I don't see Atkins getting bumped into the pen unless he starts the season in a prolonged slump (1 month +).

[Outshined_One]

I'm back and forth on Atkins. I thought it was a mistake for the Cubs to push him to AA this past season, but, at the same time, his K and HR rates don't exactly scream future stud to me.

[Guest]

Why do you think he was being "pushed"? I thought he should have been called up earlier.

[craig]

Atkins has a clear opportunity to start at Tenn, given how shallow their rotation is. Samardzija and Veal are the two obvious profile prospects. Cubs liked Adam Harben enough to roster him. Interestingly enough, in VineLine they suggested his ceiling could be as high as a #2 starter if everything comes back post-surgery. So I expect he'll start. (Although he'll have to prove his arm can hold up to rotation grind, which is no sure thing.) After that, Atkins has clear shot at #4 starter. I'd have liked Berg back for rotation, but Fleita has said otherwise. So #5 should be some roster filler or some dude like Santo or Reinhart. Possibly even Papelbon, although Fleita seemed to think he'd start at Daytona.

 

I wasn't surprised he didn't make top-30. On my list, I think the only one of BA's top-30 that I had him ahead of was Fox, and maybe Barney. At present, not enough stuff to be more than a finesse pitcher, but not enough command for that. Plus I am concerned about his arm, he had some shoulder problems last year, IIRC. But, he's like a lot of guys; if he could improve, he's got a chance. As wrigley noted, he's young enough and big enough that if he shows up healthy, maybe he'll be consistently low 90's touching 95-96, hardly unprecedented. Or perhaps his offspeed stuff will sharpen up. He could be something like a Hart. Perhaps in relief he'll through a bit harder. Or he'll get taught a cutter and it will really make a difference.

 

He's got a shot. But I'm not surprised he's behind guys like Russell and Acosta and Ascanio on the list.

[Wrigley Rat]

I have Veal, Samardzija, Harben, Santo, Atkins. Santo and Atkins are interchangeable as 4th/5th SPs, but I would have preferred Berg to stay in the rotation and have Santo in the pen (Santo's FB has been clocked up to 98 mph in short stints). But this is based on what I have heard. Obviously things change if Veal goes to the pen or if Harben isn't ready to start right away. Either way, I don't think Atkins would be moved to the pen in the first half of the season, but I see it happening down the road if he doesn't improve his velocity or his secondary pitches.

 

I do agree (through inference) that Tennessee's pitching staff is fairly weak compared to the other levels.

[sneakypower]

So in conclusion. Don't even bring up these ideas again without making sure their valid. Selective memory plagues us all, Mephistopheles included.

FWIW

 

2001:

 

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e382/harryddunn/bpba01.jpg

 

2002:

 

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e382/harryddunn/bpba02.jpg?t=1203791949

[Mephistopheles]

It took you a month to enter stuff in a spreadsheet? Come on. You're drawing for straws right here. You're making it seem as if BP's rankings are an institution. They've been written by different people over the years. Jazayerli did some, Sheehan did some, and now Goldstein is doing some. You can't even put in the correct data... your 2001 lists are from 2000. Anyways big deal for a couple years BP's were outdone by BA's. Big deal.

 

You're still wrong. There's still no way to conclude that BP's lists have "always been bloody awful" as you put it. I even admitted that the stuff I showed wasn't sufficient enough to conclude that BA's was better than BP's. It's not even close to being statistically significant either way. Of course I don't expect you to be able to test things like this.

 

Regardless there's still yet another flaw in your reasoning. You wanted to discredit BP's rankings today. When the guy doing them...Gasp worked for BA and didn't write any of the previous rankings for BP that you were calling "bloody awful". Come on...

 

Good try. I'll give you an A on effort.

[sneakypower]

It took you a month to enter stuff in a spreadsheet?

I got bored at work earlier. It was never a high priority.

 

You're making it seem as if BP's rankings are an institution. They've been written by different people over the years. Jazayerli did some, Sheehan did some, and now Goldstein is doing some.

I don't see how this is pertinent to my initial point. I was speaking for the rankings in general they post. But it does appear most of the egregious wrongs that had came to mind were on Jazayerli.

 

Regardless there's still yet another flaw in your reasoning. You wanted to discredit BP's rankings today. When the guy doing them...Gasp worked for BA and didn't write any of the previous rankings for BP that you were calling "bloody awful". Come on...

I didn't really have a motive, like I said I got bored. If I find the 2001s I might do them up.

[Guest]

Jonathan Mayo sucks.

 

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080211&content_id=346622&vkey=news_milb&fext=.jsp

[nilodnayr]

Didn't see it posted....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

 

BA's top 100 is out...and free.

 

Cubs:

Fukudome---30

Vitters---43

GEOVANY SOTO---47

Colvin---75

Gallagher---82

[CubColtPacer]

Didn't see it posted....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

 

BA's top 100 is out...and free.

 

Cubs:

Fukudome---30

Vitters---43

GEOVANY SOTO---47

Colvin---75

Gallagher---82

 

It's very interesting to see the difference between how people viewed prospects between the end of the season and now. The last 3 pages of this thread have a lot of arguments about the BA top 100:

 

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=44019

 

One of the biggest arguments was if Colvin would make the top 100. It turns out he did, and Raisin nailed it right on the nose on him being right around 75th.

 

The two people on the Cubs list who have probably raised their stock the most since September have to be Soto and Gallagher. Soto wasn't considered a top 50 prospect before his time in the majors, and Gallagher was an iffy bet to be in the BA top 100 before his AFL performance.

 

Probably the most interesting in hindsight quote of the thread (the he refers to Colvin):

 

I don't see how you can figure he'll "certainly" be on there. Will the Braves' Jordan Schafer be on there too?

 

It turns out that not only is Schafer on there, he's rated 25th overall.

[CuseCubFan69]

Do you guys think that Soto has figured it out, had a lucky year or has had artificial help? I'm thrilled that he is doing so well but I suppose I'm curious as to why now. I'd just hate to see him end up a 250/310 guy this year with the 2 big holes in CF and SS.

[Guest]

Didn't see it posted....

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2008/265655.html

 

BA's top 100 is out...and free.

 

Cubs:

Fukudome---30

Vitters---43

GEOVANY SOTO---47

Colvin---75

Gallagher---82

 

It's very interesting to see the difference between how people viewed prospects between the end of the season and now. The last 3 pages of this thread have a lot of arguments about the BA top 100:

 

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=44019

 

One of the biggest arguments was if Colvin would make the top 100. It turns out he did, and Raisin nailed it right on the nose on him being right around 75th.

 

The two people on the Cubs list who have probably raised their stock the most since September have to be Soto and Gallagher. Soto wasn't considered a top 50 prospect before his time in the majors, and Gallagher was an iffy bet to be in the BA top 100 before his AFL performance.

 

Probably the most interesting in hindsight quote of the thread (the he refers to Colvin):

 

I don't see how you can figure he'll "certainly" be on there. Will the Braves' Jordan Schafer be on there too?

 

It turns out that not only is Schafer on there, he's rated 25th overall.

 

Wow, does BA overrate Schafer or what? Of course I believe they're overrating Colvin too but Schafer at 25!?

[CubColtPacer]

Do you guys think that Soto has figured it out, had a lucky year or has had artificial help? I'm thrilled that he is doing so well but I suppose I'm curious as to why now. I'd just hate to see him end up a 250/310 guy this year with the 2 big holes in CF and SS.

 

I can only comment on the numbers and the limited at-bats he had in both 2006 and 2007, so I'm not completely qualified to judge.

 

From my limited viewpoint though, it's a combination of figuring it out and having a lucky year. 2007 still was likely a career year for him. He will likely regress from a normal minor league translation from his numbers last year.

 

At the same time, I remember thinking about how absolutely lost he was at the plate in 2006 when he came up. He only hit 1 or 2 balls hard the entire time he was up. 3 or 4 of his 5 hits that year were dribblers. It wasn't that he just wasn't getting breaks. It was obvious he was completely overmatched (the best comparison to Soto 2006 would be Koyie Hill 2007, and Soto was probably a little worse).

 

When he came up in September of last year, it was a completely different hitter. He waited back on the ball and drove it well with a much quicker bat. That bat speed was probably due to all the weight he lost in the offseason last year. If he can keep the weight down, he should be a guy who will walk a pretty good amount and have pretty good power for a catcher, and that will make him pretty good offensively for his position.

[CuseCubFan69]

Do you guys think that Soto has figured it out, had a lucky year or has had artificial help? I'm thrilled that he is doing so well but I suppose I'm curious as to why now. I'd just hate to see him end up a 250/310 guy this year with the 2 big holes in CF and SS.

 

I can only comment on the numbers and the limited at-bats he had in both 2006 and 2007, so I'm not completely qualified to judge.

 

From my limited viewpoint though, it's a combination of figuring it out and having a lucky year. 2007 still was likely a career year for him. He will likely regress from a normal minor league translation from his numbers last year.

 

At the same time, I remember thinking about how absolutely lost he was at the plate in 2006 when he came up. He only hit 1 or 2 balls hard the entire time he was up. 3 or 4 of his 5 hits that year were dribblers. It wasn't that he just wasn't getting breaks. It was obvious he was completely overmatched (the best comparison to Soto 2006 would be Koyie Hill 2007, and Soto was probably a little worse).

 

When he came up in September of last year, it was a completely different hitter. He waited back on the ball and drove it well with a much quicker bat. That bat speed was probably due to all the weight he lost in the offseason last year. If he can keep the weight down, he should be a guy who will walk a pretty good amount and have pretty good power for a catcher, and that will make him pretty good offensively for his position.

 

Thanks for your answer CCP. He had a wonderful year last year and imo he'll struggle a lot more this year. I hope you're right and he has figured it out plus I'm sure a little luck played a part as well. I don't think he's going to sneak up on the pitchers this year either and they will be looking for weaknesses more than they did last year. Add to that, the possible struggles of Theriot and Pie and you have 4 possible holes in the lineup. Didn't Soto always have a decent Isod?

[CubColtPacer]

Do you guys think that Soto has figured it out, had a lucky year or has had artificial help? I'm thrilled that he is doing so well but I suppose I'm curious as to why now. I'd just hate to see him end up a 250/310 guy this year with the 2 big holes in CF and SS.

 

I can only comment on the numbers and the limited at-bats he had in both 2006 and 2007, so I'm not completely qualified to judge.

 

From my limited viewpoint though, it's a combination of figuring it out and having a lucky year. 2007 still was likely a career year for him. He will likely regress from a normal minor league translation from his numbers last year.

 

At the same time, I remember thinking about how absolutely lost he was at the plate in 2006 when he came up. He only hit 1 or 2 balls hard the entire time he was up. 3 or 4 of his 5 hits that year were dribblers. It wasn't that he just wasn't getting breaks. It was obvious he was completely overmatched (the best comparison to Soto 2006 would be Koyie Hill 2007, and Soto was probably a little worse).

 

When he came up in September of last year, it was a completely different hitter. He waited back on the ball and drove it well with a much quicker bat. That bat speed was probably due to all the weight he lost in the offseason last year. If he can keep the weight down, he should be a guy who will walk a pretty good amount and have pretty good power for a catcher, and that will make him pretty good offensively for his position.

 

Thanks for your answer CCP. He had a wonderful year last year and imo he'll struggle a lot more this year. I hope you're right and he has figured it out plus I'm sure a little luck played a part as well. I don't think he's going to sneak up on the pitchers this year either and they will be looking for weaknesses more than they did last year. Add to that, the possible struggles of Theriot and Pie and you have 4 possible holes in the lineup. Didn't Soto always have a decent Isod?

 

Yes, Soto has always had an excellent ISOD, usually between .80 and .100. That's going to be the biggest reason why he won't fall too far is that he knows how to take a walk, so even if he struggles with the power aspect he has his patience to fall back on.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about Soto being a hole. An average catcher put up a .711 OPS last season. Soto should be able to put up that with his walks even if he only hits 5-10 HR's next year. I think the only two positions that the Cubs have to worry about having a below average offensive player in are SS and CF.

[CuseCubFan69]

Do you guys think that Soto has figured it out, had a lucky year or has had artificial help? I'm thrilled that he is doing so well but I suppose I'm curious as to why now. I'd just hate to see him end up a 250/310 guy this year with the 2 big holes in CF and SS.

 

I can only comment on the numbers and the limited at-bats he had in both 2006 and 2007, so I'm not completely qualified to judge.

 

From my limited viewpoint though, it's a combination of figuring it out and having a lucky year. 2007 still was likely a career year for him. He will likely regress from a normal minor league translation from his numbers last year.

 

At the same time, I remember thinking about how absolutely lost he was at the plate in 2006 when he came up. He only hit 1 or 2 balls hard the entire time he was up. 3 or 4 of his 5 hits that year were dribblers. It wasn't that he just wasn't getting breaks. It was obvious he was completely overmatched (the best comparison to Soto 2006 would be Koyie Hill 2007, and Soto was probably a little worse).

 

When he came up in September of last year, it was a completely different hitter. He waited back on the ball and drove it well with a much quicker bat. That bat speed was probably due to all the weight he lost in the offseason last year. If he can keep the weight down, he should be a guy who will walk a pretty good amount and have pretty good power for a catcher, and that will make him pretty good offensively for his position.

 

Thanks for your answer CCP. He had a wonderful year last year and imo he'll struggle a lot more this year. I hope you're right and he has figured it out plus I'm sure a little luck played a part as well. I don't think he's going to sneak up on the pitchers this year either and they will be looking for weaknesses more than they did last year. Add to that, the possible struggles of Theriot and Pie and you have 4 possible holes in the lineup. Didn't Soto always have a decent Isod?

 

Yes, Soto has always had an excellent ISOD, usually between .80 and .100. That's going to be the biggest reason why he won't fall too far is that he knows how to take a walk, so even if he struggles with the power aspect he has his patience to fall back on.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about Soto being a hole. An average catcher put up a .711 OPS last season. Soto should be able to put up that with his walks even if he only hits 5-10 HR's next year. I think the only two positions that the Cubs have to worry about having a below average offensive player in are SS and CF.

 

I hope he does have another nice year and if somehow the SS and/or CF positions are near average or above the Cubs might be in for a productive season.

[craig]

Thanks for BA list. Nice to see 5 Cubs in the top-82.

 

Thanks also for that link to the old discussion. I was fairly decent, Gallagher likely but not certain. Colvin likely, perhaps as high as 75. Soto for sure. I didn't comment on Vitters; it's interesting that he's so high.

 

Heh, the funny parts from that discussion were the biggest mistakes, by badnews (who scoffed at the idea of Colvin making it and ranted about how dumb we Cub fans were to overrate our prospects so much, Colvin should be about a #9 prospect on most lists...) and meph "Eric Patterson will most certainly be top 100 on BA. Don't be surprised if hes down around 50." O well, which of us don't make mistakes. Still, kind of funny.

 

I even thought Samardz might still have a shot to sneak in somewhere in the 90's (I didn't think it likely, but it wouldn't have stunned me.)