Cubs Top Prospect Lists (BA top 30, Sickels top 21, BP - 11)

[craig]

cal, thanks for the Petrick note. (And yes, I did mean that Callis *did* think his arm was fine!!)

 

PeoriaChiefs, thanks a ton for your feedback on the Peoria pitchers. Fastballs that sink are what you'd like. If Maestri is 90-92 with some downward movement, that's perhaps as-or-more effective as somebody else's 92-95 4-seamer. So that sounds very encouraging. The comments on herandez, Ruhlman, and Siegfried are also encouraging. Nice to hear that Siegfried seems like an eager learner, and was good in instrux. Would seem to me that his fastball and curve both have excellent stuff potential; the question would seem to me more consistency and control. That might come along faster with the innings a starter gets than in relief.

 

badnews: as pointed out, many/most of the cubs high HS picks have begun season-after-draft in full-season ball. Corey, Kelton, Goldbach, Montanez all did. Pie and Cedeno also skipped ahead to full. Those who didn't were raw talents who were really struggling or were hurt: Harvey, Dopirak, pawelek. (All of whom have subsequently confirmed that they aren't very good at what they do. So they were clearly unqualified for promotion, regardless of draft position.)

 

In Vitters case, I assume it's a question of whether he's polished enough and is qualified and ready to compete.

 

I think the Cubs do try to read the personalities. For some guys who may be more confidence-challenged, they may want to make sure they aren't put at a level where they'll get dominated and get discouraged. I think Pawelek may have been in that school. They seem to talk up Vitters as if he's very solid that way, so they may not be as protective of him as some other guys. It's a question of whether his skills will be enough so that he can compete and be at least reasonably successful in full-A. Most hitters drafted that high are, including the names you mentioned. One would expect Vitters should be, but what one expects doesn't always turn out, and guys don't always perform to their draft status.

 

On slow promotions: Hendry has said that he doesn't like to promote guys that often during their first full season. Colvin is an exception, but most of the other guys don't get promoted till late season, even if doing rather well. Eric Patterson in A- is an example.

 

I agree that if Russell looks good in spring, that he's a likely Daytona candidate. As mentioned, he was the Friday starter for Texas, one of the highest-profile college programs. And he's got some control and an alread competitive change. He's not a raw guy who necessarily needs A- experience, he can likely compete at A+. Holliman was a good example of a successful big-time college program pitcher, straight to A+. Thomas, Barney, Wright, and Smith also seem like big-program college guys, any-or-all of whom might open at Daytona. I'd think donaldson could too, except that he hasn't been catching that long and his defense is still far from polished. (Different from Barney, Smith, or Wright). Plus, he's got a blocked problem: Welington Castillo is also an excellent catching prospect, and almost certainly preferable to Donaldson defensively at the present time. So if donaldson does skip to Daytona, it would have to be as a share-time catcher. I don't think that's likely, but it's not impossible, since usually the Cubs have even their best catching prospects catch every-other-day anyway.

 

Nathan, I think the idea of Hernandez repeating Peoria to work with Rosario is interesting and might be a good idea. Not sure the Cubs have ever held back a guy who had as effective a season as he did, though, and wasn't blocked.

[Guest]

Nathan, I think the idea of Hernandez repeating Peoria to work with Rosario is interesting and might be a good idea. Not sure the Cubs have ever held back a guy who had as effective a season as he did, though, and wasn't blocked.

 

Hernandez doesn't need to be held back to stay with Rosario. It's entirely possible Rosario moves further up the system. He was at Boise in 06 and moved on up to Peoria last season (and supposedly had a good relationship with Pawelek there).

 

Good point on the Cubs' view of Vitters mental makeup - they clearly had no problem with pushing him up to Boise despite him hitting attrociously in Mesa and they said he had the makeup to handle failure.

[ChiefsVoice]

 

Hernandez doesn't need to be held back to stay with Rosario. It's entirely possible Rosario moves further up the system. He was at Boise in 06 and moved on up to Peoria last season (and supposedly had a good relationship with Pawelek there).

 

I don't expect Rosy back here. Who knows who it will be, but I would expect David in Daytona and us to either get Bombard, Pratt or someone new if there is someone new. We usually find out at the end of the Winter Meetings or the following week so I would guess Dec 5-13 or in that range at the earliest! So far I've only seen 4 teams in our league announce coaches (Bur, West Mich, Dayton and Clinton) and two of those came on Monday or Tuesday.

[Guest]

MiLB.com's unvieling their top-50 prospects across all of baseball 10 at a time. Supposedly these rankings are thanks to 20 scouts in baseball: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/

 

Two Cubs appear to have made the top 50 (they've only gone 21-50 but I think it's safe to assume there are no Cubs in the top 20). They are Josh Vitters at 30 and Tyler Colvin at 44.

[nilodnayr]

MiLB.com's unvieling their top-50 prospects across all of baseball 10 at a time. Supposedly these rankings are thanks to 20 scouts in baseball: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/

 

Two Cubs appear to have made the top 50 (they've only gone 21-50 but I think it's safe to assume there are no Cubs in the top 20). They are Josh Vitters at 30 and Tyler Colvin at 44.

 

11-20 released...3 Rays pitchers.

[Guest]

MiLB.com's unvieling their top-50 prospects across all of baseball 10 at a time. Supposedly these rankings are thanks to 20 scouts in baseball: http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/news/top50/y2008/

 

Two Cubs appear to have made the top 50 (they've only gone 21-50 but I think it's safe to assume there are no Cubs in the top 20). They are Josh Vitters at 30 and Tyler Colvin at 44.

 

11-20 released...3 Rays pitchers.

 

McGee is horribly under-ranked. Behind Adenhart and Wood?

[Outshined_One]

Ahhhhhhhhhh Travis Snider...what should have been...

 

*Rams head against the wall*

[badnews]

Yeah but he's not "athletic." According to Jim Hendry, we need athletes who have no real skills but being athletes. The object of this drafting philosophy is to be able to beat the St. Louis Cardinals in a pick-up game of basketball.

[nilodnayr]

Top 10 are up..

 

Top 10 Prospects

Jay Bruce

Evan Longoria

Cameron Maybin

Clayton Kershaw

Joba Chamberlain

Clay Buchholz

Colby Rasmus

Andrew McCutchen

Homer Bailey

Adam Miller

 

I don't see how McCutchen can retain a top 10 spot after doing a whole lot of nothing in Altoona this year.

[badnews]

McCutchen is apparently the new Neil Walker. I never understood why he was graded so highly for not so much for years.

 

Adam Miller... every time I look him up I don't see the elite numbers I expect to see from the write-ups. You know how you look up Jacob McGee and say "Holy Moses, those are sick numbers for that age at that level." Then you look up Adam Miller and say "That's a pretty fantastic K/BB ratio, but I guess I expected more from the man who was dubbed as possessing the world's deadliest slider."

[sneakypower]

Ahhhhhhhhhh Travis Snider...what should have been...

 

*Rams head against the wall*

 

Could have been another HS hitter we failed to develop into a useful player.

[Outshined_One]

Ahhhhhhhhhh Travis Snider...what should have been...

 

*Rams head against the wall*

 

Could have been another HS hitter we failed to develop into a useful player.

 

Quite possible. However, that won't stop me from being bitter.

[Guest]

Guess we know who's going to fall in at #11 in BA's rankings (well, #12 with Kosuke Fukudome probably becoming BA's new top Cub prospect):

 

BA's Prospects Who Just Missed Their Team's Top 10[/url]"]Billy Petrick, rhp, Cubs. Groomed as a starter until he developed a small tear in his labrum in 2005, Petrick has been a revelation as a reliever. Fully healthy again, Petrick has hit 97 mph with his fastball and the mid-80s with his slider while working out of the bullpen. Relieving suits the aggressive personality of the former Washington State football recruit.

[craig]

Guess we know who's going to fall in at #11 in BA's rankings (well, #12 with Kosuke Fukudome probably becoming BA's new top Cub prospect):

 

BA's Prospects Who Just Missed Their Team's Top 10[/url]"]Billy Petrick, rhp, Cubs. Groomed as a starter until he developed a small tear in his labrum in 2005, Petrick has been a revelation as a reliever. Fully healthy again, Petrick has hit 97 mph with his fastball and the mid-80s with his slider while working out of the bullpen. Relieving suits the aggressive personality of the former Washington State football recruit.

 

Cal, had Atlanta already had their top 10's by the time we made the trade, and if so did the guy we got for Ohman/Infante make their top 10? Not sure BA liked him as much as Hendry and Wilkin and the Cubs. But I'd think he'd need to rank up there in that 10-12 range too, at least on Hendry's list.

[Guest]

Cal, had Atlanta already had their top 10's by the time we made the trade, and if so did the guy we got for Ohman/Infante make their top 10? Not sure BA liked him as much as Hendry and Wilkin and the Cubs. But I'd think he'd need to rank up there in that 10-12 range too, at least on Hendry's list.

 

No, Jose Ascanio didn't make the BA Braves Top 10 (their top 10 was: 1. Jordan Schafer, 2. Jason Heyward, 3. Jair Jurrjens, 4. Brandon Jones, 5. Gorkys Hernandez, 6. Brent Lillibridge, 7. Cole Rohrbough, 8. Jeff Locke, 9. Tommy Hanson, 10. Julio Teheran).

[wvcbxl]

... 3. Jair Jurrjens...

 

Good to see that Dutchman doing well.

[YearofDaCubs]

It sucks that we don't have any prospects in the top 10. None of our prospects are rated in the A's and we only have 2 as B+'s.

[UK1679666180]

With the Cubs signing Kosuke Fukudome, does he become their No. 1 prospect? And does this now make it more likely that Chicago will trade either Felix Pie or Tyler Colvin, perhaps in a multiplayer blockbuster with the Orioles?

 

Tim Worrall

Napoleon, Ohio

 

Though it's unfair to compare American minor leaguers with older imports, where would Kosuke Fukudome fit on the Cubs Top 10 and the overall Top 100 Prospects list?

 

Penny Simone

Bellwood, Ill.

 

Where does Kosuke Fukudome now rank amongst Cubs prospects? I would be inclined to rate him ahead of Josh Vitters at No. 1. And did he sign in time to make it into the 2008 Prospect Handbook? If so, who got knocked out from No. 30 to No. 31?

 

Navin Dore

Pasadena, Calif.

 

Where would Kosuke Fukudome rank on the Cubs Top 10? I assume No. 2 behind only Josh Vitters. Also, where would you rank him among all the prospects in baseball?

 

Rob Dorsey

Silver Spring, Md.

Lots of fans have Fukudome on their mind. It's kind of silly to consider an established Japanese big leaguer a "prospect", but our definition of a prospect closely mirrors MLB's definition of a rookie, and it is what it is.

 

Fukudome signed just after our transaction deadline for the Prospect Handbook, so he didn't make our Cubs list there. We did, however, including him in an appendix along with fellow Japanese signees Kaz Fukumori (Rangers) and Hiroki Kuroda (Dodgers). Here's our scouting report on the 30-year-old Fukudome:

 

The departures of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui meant that Fukudome was the best all-around player remaining in Japan. While he doesn't have the same power as Matsui, he's a comparable player and has better all-around tools. The 2006 Central League MVP and two-time batting champ has a strong arm and runs well enough to play center field in a pinch, though he profiles best as a right fielder who hits for average, draws walks and occasionally drives the ball out of the park with a smooth lefthanded swing. The Cubs will play him in right and bat him near the top of the order, perhaps even in the leadoff spot.

 

The biggest concern about Fukudome is his durability. He missed the second half of the 2007 season with bone chips in his throwing elbow and has been bothered by other minor injuries in recent years. Fukudome played third base as a teenager on Japan's silver-medal winning 1996 Olympic team before taking his speed to the outfield. He has plenty of experience on the international stage. He also played for Japan's 2004 Olympic team and was one of the stars of Japan's World Baseball Classic squad, hitting a pinch-hit, two-run home run in the semifinals against Korea and a key two-run single against Cuba in the championship game.

 

 

Had Fukudome signed in time to make our Cubs list, I would have ranked him No. 1 ahead of Josh Vitters. I think Vitters, the third overall pick in the 2007 draft, has a higher ceiling but Fukudome has starred at the highest level of baseball outside of Major League Baseball. I think he's a near lock to be a solid regular for the Cubs, though I don't see him becoming a star, reiterating the Hideki Matsui comp from our scouting report. Combining his ceiling and his likelihood of reaching it, I'll probably put Fukudome in the 21-30 range on my personal Top 100 list.

 

His arrival has to make Colvin or Pie expendable, because with Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano signed for another 11 years and $167 million between them, there's only one outfield opening available. It's also possible that if Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez remain productive and in Chicago, Vitters could head to the outfield as well. Sam Fuld's stock is soaring after a strong Arizona Fall League performance, so he gives the Cubs another outfield option (though I view him as more of a fourth outfielder than a regular).

 

One last thing: While Fukudome didn't push anyone out of our Cubs Top 30 in the Handbook, Chicago did acquire righthanders Jose Ascanio and Tim Lahey in December. That knocked outfielder Josh Kroeger and third baseman Kyle Reynolds out of the book, though we'll present their scouting reports in our annual online look at what we call The 31st Team—all the reports that didn't quite make it into the Handbook.

[Wrigley Rat]

One last thing: While Fukudome didn't push anyone out of our Cubs Top 30 in the Handbook, Chicago did acquire righthanders Jose Ascanio and Tim Lahey in December. That knocked outfielder Josh Kroeger and third baseman Kyle Reynolds out of the book, though we'll present their scouting reports in our annual online look at what we call The 31st Team—all the reports that didn't quite make it into the Handbook.

Thanks Ping - I appreciated this the most - it's always fun to see who just missed BA's Top 30.

[jersey cubs fan]

His arrival has to make Colvin or Pie expendable, because with Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano signed for another 11 years and $167 million between them, there's only one outfield opening available.

 

That is one of the weirdest things I've ever read, specifically the part about 11 years. They aren't signed for the next 11 years, they are signed for the next 4 years. There is presumably only one spot available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. I feel like the current management team likely has more faith in Colvin than Pie, and may even be willing to push Colvin a bit, so that he may play some in 2009.

[rawaction]

His arrival has to make Colvin or Pie expendable, because with Fukudome and Alfonso Soriano signed for another 11 years and $167 million between them, there's only one outfield opening available.

 

That is one of the weirdest things I've ever read, specifically the part about 11 years. They aren't signed for the next 11 years, they are signed for the next 4 years. There is presumably only one spot available for 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. I feel like the current management team likely has more faith in Colvin than Pie, and may even be willing to push Colvin a bit, so that he may play some in 2009.

 

Right up there with the Cubs spending $300 million last offseason.

[Guest]

I really like some of the stuff Project Prospect does (I believe soccer10k is friends with one of the site founders?). Anyways, they have their Cubs top 5 prospects up (they're certainly not tools-oriented so I think a lot of you will like it): http://www.projectprospect.com/chicago-cubs-top-5/

 

1. 3B Josh Vitters

2. C Geovany Soto

3. OF Kosuke Fukudome

4. RHP Sean Gallagher

5. C Josh Donaldson

 

Honorary Mention: 2B Tony Thomas, RHP Jeff Samardzija, LHP Donnie Veal, OF Tyler Colvin, 2B-OF Eric Patterson.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

1 Josh Vitters, 3B, Grade B+ (tough call, see commentary below)

2 Geovany Soto, C, Grade B+ (tough call, see commentary below)

3 Sean Gallagher, RHP, Grade B

4 Eric Patterson, 2B-OF, Grade B (I dropped him from B+ due to defense)

5 Tyler Colvin, OF, Grade B

6 Josh Donaldson, C, Grade B

7 Donald Veal, LHP, Grade B-

8 Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Grade B-

9 Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B-

10 Tony Thomas, 2B, Grade B-

11 Billy Petrick, RHP, Grade C+

12 Kevin Hart, RHP, Grade C+

13 Sam Fuld, OF, Grade C+

14 Jake Fox, C-1B, Grade C+

15 Allesandro Maestri, RHP, Grade C+

16 Steve Clevenger, C, Grade C+

17 Mitch Atkins, RHP, Grade C

18 Mark Holliman, RHP, Grade C

19 Matt Craig, 3B, Grade C

20 Larry Suarez, RHP, Grade C

21 Ryan Acosta, RHP, Grade C

 

Link

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Ascanio got a C+ grade and rated 19 on his list of Braves prospects.

[UK1679666180]

I like Tony Thomas more than Eric Patterson.