Cubs Top Prospect Lists (BA top 30, Sickels top 21, BP - 11)

[mhuber92211]

no Pawlek? Incomplete maybe?

[jacey]

I think he's got Ceda too low and Veal too high

[Outshined_One]

no Pawlek? Incomplete maybe?

 

Sadly, I'm inclined to agree with leaving Pawelek out of the Top 20.

[JeffH]

Regardless of what you think of Mark Pawelek, if Matt Craig were in another organization, would you trade Pawelek for him?

 

Unless Pawelek was a dope supplier, I don't think so.

[YearofDaCubs]

Still sucks that we don't have any A prospects. I think the list looks pretty good.

[Outshined_One]

Regardless of what you think of Mark Pawelek, if Matt Craig were in another organization, would you trade Pawelek for him?

 

Unless Pawelek was a dope supplier, I don't think so.

 

I'd give consideration to it. Pawelek hasn't been able to stick above short season ball while Craig will likely make a decent 1B/3B utilityman with good plate discipline and a bit of pop. Craig's much more likely to contribute something to the majors than Pawelek at this point.

[Productive Outs]

here's Goldstein's take: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7055

 

i'll post the top 5

 

1. Geovany Soto

2. Josh Vitters

3. Donald Veal

4. Jose Ceda

5. Josh Donaldson

 

he has Soto and Vitters as five-star prospects, and the rest as three-star prospects.

[Mephistopheles]

non subscribers can see all of the following

 

Five-Star Prospects

1. Geovany Soto, C

2. Josh Vitters, 3B

Four-Star Prospects

None

Three-Star Prospects

3. Donald Veal, LHP

4. Jose Ceda, RHP

5. Josh Donaldson, C

6. Sean Gallagher, RHP

7. Tyler Colvin, OF

8. Eric Patterson, 2B/OF

9. Welington Castillo, C

10. Tony Thomas, 2B

Two-Star Prospects

11. Jeff Samardzija, RHP

 

Just Missing: Kevin Hart, RHP; Chris Huseby, RHP; Larry Suarez, RHP

 

1. Geovany Soto, C

DOB: 1/20/83

Height/Weight: 6-1/230

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted: 11th round, 2007, American Military Academy (PR)

2007 Stats: .353/.424/.652 at Triple-A (110 G); .389/.433/.667 at MLB (10 G)

 

Year In Review: Always seen as a player who projected as an everyday big-league catcher, Soto exploded in 2007, first leading the minor leagues in slugging, and then taking over for Jason Kendall by the end of the year.

The Good: The Cubs credit Soto's breaking out to improved conditioning, but even they were surprised by the breakout campaign. More than just a hulking slugger with plus power, he's also a solid hitter who uses all fields and has a patient approach, and an above-average defender who is effective in cutting down the running game.

The Bad: Soto falls in love with his power a little too often, and could use more of a tempered approach when behind in the count to cut down on his strikeouts. His arm would be even more effective with improved accuracy. He runs like a big catcher.

Fun Fact: While playing at Iowa, Soto hit .455 (40-for-88) with runners on and two outs, including eight doubles and 11 home runs.

Perfect World Projection: An All-Star catcher with 20-plus home runs annually–-think Jason Varitek in his prime.

Timetable: Soto will be the Cubs Opening Day catcher, and will immediately be one of the better backstops in the National League.

[Mephistopheles]

a subscriber can be cool and paraphrase the rest

[UMFan83]

a subscriber can be cool and paraphrase the rest

 

I'd love to hear the "Perfect World Projections" for each of the top 10

[Tedward]

Callis in today's chat (1/16)

 

Frank (Chicago): Jim, you think Geovanny Soto is the real deal despite previous mediocre seasons in the minors? How does he size up against Suzuki, Salty and Towles???

 

Jim Callis: (2:08 PM ET ) That's a good question. He never really hit a whole lot, and then he led the minors in OPS. I think he's for real, though I don't think his bat is really that good. I'd rank those guys like this: Saltalamacchia, Soto, Towles, Suzuki.

[nilodnayr]

a subscriber can be cool and paraphrase the rest

 

I'd love to hear the "Perfect World Projections" for each of the top 10

Actually, they do 11 this year...most of them are pretty lame, but here they are.

 

Geo

Perfect World Projection: An All-Star catcher with 20-plus home runs annually–-think Jason Varitek in his prime

 

Vitters

Perfect World Projection: A run producer in the middle of the order whose position will be determined.

 

Veal

Perfect World Projection: Veal still has a star-level ceiling as a power left-hander.

 

Ceda

Perfect World Projection: A dominating shut-down closer who gives fans heart palpitations because of all the walks.

 

Donaldson

Perfect World Projection: An offense-oriented catcher.

 

Gallagher

Perfect World Projection: A mid-rotation innings-eater.

 

Colvin

Perfect World Projection: If he can stay in center field, his projection is far better than it is as a corner man.

 

Patterson

Perfect World Projection: 85 percent of Ray Durham?

 

Castillo

Perfect World Projection: An average everyday big-league catcher

 

Thomas

Perfect World Projection: Thomas projects as an offense-oriented second baseman in the end, and thus is very much from the same mold as Eric Patterson.

 

Samardzjia

Perfect World Projection: One can find scouts to project Samardzija as a future ace or All-Star closer, and one can find scouts who don't think he'll ever get out of the minors. One cannot find a good precedent for a player with Samardzija's numbers turning into a quality big-league contributor.

[UMFan83]

a subscriber can be cool and paraphrase the rest

 

I'd love to hear the "Perfect World Projections" for each of the top 10

Actually, they do 11 this year...most of them are pretty lame, but here they are.

 

Geo

Perfect World Projection: An All-Star catcher with 20-plus home runs annually–-think Jason Varitek in his prime

 

Vitters

Perfect World Projection: A run producer in the middle of the order whose position will be determined.

 

Veal

Perfect World Projection: Veal still has a star-level ceiling as a power left-hander.

 

Ceda

Perfect World Projection: A dominating shut-down closer who gives fans heart palpitations because of all the walks.

 

Donaldson

Perfect World Projection: An offense-oriented catcher.

 

Gallagher

Perfect World Projection: A mid-rotation innings-eater.

 

Colvin

Perfect World Projection: If he can stay in center field, his projection is far better than it is as a corner man.

 

Patterson

Perfect World Projection: 85 percent of Ray Durham?

 

Castillo

Perfect World Projection: An average everyday big-league catcher

 

Thomas

Perfect World Projection: Thomas projects as an offense-oriented second baseman in the end, and thus is very much from the same mold as Eric Patterson.

 

Samardzjia

Perfect World Projection: One can find scouts to project Samardzija as a future ace or All-Star closer, and one can find scouts who don't think he'll ever get out of the minors. One cannot find a good precedent for a player with Samardzija's numbers turning into a quality big-league contributor.

 

Thanks so much!

[nilodnayr]

a subscriber can be cool and paraphrase the rest

 

Vitters: Advanced hitter, good work ethic, well below avg defensively, but can improve to be adequate

 

Veal:Trouble repeating delivery lead to walks, if he can fix his mechanics like in the second half has the size, velo, handedness and secondary pitches to live up to his hype last year.

 

Ceda: See Bobby Jenks

 

Donaldson: Offensive oriented, OBP machine, slightly above average power, but a lot of work to do defensively. Good athelete, good arm, only been catching for 2 years so still learning the position.

 

Gallagher: Polished, at his ceiling, solid repitoire. Aggressive and confident.

 

Colvin: "displaying both impressive athleticism and massive holes in his game" Average tools, solid gap hitter, good arm, but doesnt have the range for center. Can't buy a walk, sucks against lefties.

 

Patterson: Solid all around good average, decent walks, decent power, opportune base stealer, but defensive issues caused the move to the OF

 

Castillo: Seemed to describe a raw Geo. Great defensively, good calling and leadership, decent power, but still raw

 

Thomas: Pretty much Patterson, but sounded like even worse of a defender.

 

Samardzjia: "as right now he's much more of a thrower than a pitcher." His perfect world projection sums it up. Has the tools, but it doesnt translate to performance, fastball is a bit straight, changeup needs work, plus slider, above average command

 

Ohh and Kyler Burke is their sleeper.

[Guest]

Thanks, nilo.

[Vinestal]

What were Vitters total numbers in pro ball last year? I know it was a small sample size but I remember day after day being completely saddened by 0 for 4s. I know he comes with alot of hype but didnt he completely stink in the time that he played as a pro last year? I guess I'll be alot more excited about him when he starts mashing rookie ball pitchers.

[Guest]

What were Vitters total numbers in pro ball last year? I know it was a small sample size but I remember day after day being completely saddened by 0 for 4s. I know he comes with alot of hype but didnt he completely stink in the time that he played as a pro last year? I guess I'll be alot more excited about him when he starts mashing rookie ball pitchers.

 

.067/.094/.067 (30 AB) at Mesa

.190/.261/.190 (21 AB) at Boise

 

Of course he did badly last year, he was rushed into play after not playing for 3 months. His 51 AB mean little.

[Wrigley Rat]

Here's my Top 30 for today - it's constantly changing:

 

1. Soto

2. Gallagher

3. Donaldson

4. Colvin

5. Vitters

6. Ceda

7. Hart

8. Veal

9. Samardzija

10. Petrick

11. Ascanio

12. Patterson

13. Campusano

14. Thomas

15. Harben

16. Fuld

17. Roquet

18. Fox

20. Holliman

21. Dopirak

22. Clevenger

23. Huseby

24. Lahey

25. Maestri

26. W. Castillo

27. Hernandez

28. M. Smith

29. Pawelek

30. Burke

Honorable Mention: Justin Berg, Kyle Reynolds, Ty Wright, Rafael Dolis, Brandon Guyer, Mitch Atkins, Matt Avery, Alberto Cabrera, Russ Canzler, Dae-Eun Rhee, Josh Kroeger, Leon Johnson, Geoff Jones, Cliff Andersen, Larry Suarez, Juan Mateo, Ryan Acosta.

[TruffleShuffle]

ugh, our system sucks

[nilodnayr]

ugh, our system sucks

 

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks.

[Guest]

BA's 31st team (guys who didn't make the top 30 after they were originally included because of late trades and signings, etc.):

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/265470.html

 

Josh Kroeger, of, Cubs

 

Born: Aug. 31, 1982. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 220. Drafted: HS—San Diego, 2000 (4th round). Signed by: James Keller (Diamondbacks).

 

Kroeger hit .331 with 19 homers in the upper minors in 2004, but failed a trial with the Diamondbacks that year and dropped to .231 with nine homers at Triple-A in the Phillies system by 2006. Cubs scout Hector Ortega liked what he saw of him in the Venezuelan Winter League, so Chicago signed Kroeger as a six-year minor league free agent. He opened 2007 in Double-A because the Cubs didn't have an opening in Triple-A, then forced the issue by hitting .382 at Tennessee. He has a smooth swing, though just average bat speed and raw power. He got his bat going again last year by trying not to do too much at the plate, getting comfortable taking what pitchers gave him and exhibiting by far the best plate discipline of his career. A good athlete who turned down a football scholarship to play wide receiver at NCAA Division II Truman State (Mo.), Kroeger has average speed and can play all three outfield positions, though he's best suited for a corner. He has enough arm strength to play regularly in right field. His resurgence came despite a nagging bone spur in his left hand, which he had removed via surgery in September. He should be 100 percent for spring training. He re-signed with the Cubs as a minor league free agent, though their offseason signing of Kosuke Fukudome means its unlikely that Kroeger will get much of an opportunity with the big league club.

 

Kyle Reynolds, 3b/1b, Cubs

 

Born: Sept. 1, 1983. B-T: L-R. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 185. Drafted: Baylor, 2005 (6th round). Signed by: Steve Riha.

 

From Aramis Ramirez in the majors down to Jovan Rosa in the Rookie-level Arizona League, the Cubs believe they have their best third-base depth in years. Reynolds contributes to that mix after breaking out with 21 homers in 2007, increasing his production after a late-July promotion to Double-A. The son of former all-star shortstop Craig Reynolds, Kyle has played all four infield positions in pro ball but lacks the quickness to stay in the middle infield on a regular basis. Because of his slender frame, there had been questions as to whether he'd have enough power to play every day on an infield corner, but he took a step toward answering those last year. Reynolds still wasn't able to add any strength, but he did a better job of maintaining his weight throughout the season. He hangs in well against lefthanders, though his lack of patience may cost him against more advanced pitchers. Reynolds played mostly first base in his draft year of 2005 at Baylor, but he's fully capable of playing third base. He has average speed and range and enough arm to make the long throws across the diamond. He'll need to prove that his power surge was no fluke, but Reynolds' strong finish may allow him to begin 2008 in Triple-A.

 

Jose Ascanio and Tim Lahey knocked Kroeger and Reynolds off BA's Cubs top 30 (not because of Kosuke Fukudome who didn't sign in time; i.e. Kroeger and Reynolds are really 32 and 33).

[Wrigley Rat]

ugh, our system sucks

 

Our system is so awesome that Veal is 8, Dope is 21, and Pawelek is 29!!! Oh wait, no, thats why our system sucks.

I agree - not the strongest organization out there, but I might say it's stronger than it was last year. The main difference is we're getting much older. If appropriate ages are 24 in AAA, 23 in AA, 22 in A+, etc. then many of our prospects are now becoming old for their levels. I think the Cubs brass are banking on those guys who tend to "figure it out" later in their minor league careers (i.e. Geoff Jones, Kevin Hart, etc.). They also are showing an attraction to pitchers who have already had Tommy John surgery, making them a year and a half to two years behind schedule (i.e. Adam Harben, Ed Campusano, etc.). They have also drafted college kids more heavily than high school kids recently which keeps ages much higher than normal.

 

In response to Veal, Dopirak, and Pawelek being in the top 30, my opinion is that players who are one year removed from huge seasons can't be completely forgotten:

- Now I'm no expert in all those new age stats, but Donald Veal had a 1.67 ERA in 80.2 IP, striking out 88, with a WHIP of 1.09 at Daytona as a 22 year old (appropriate age) just a year ago (2006). It's too early to give up on him. He should be given a chance this year to make amends.

- Dopirak had a pretty good season last year, was injured in 2006, had a bad 2005, and had a great 2004. 17 HRs in 347 AB's last year with a .277 AVG at Daytona shows some pop, but he was one year too old. 39 HR's in 541 AB's in 2004 at Lansing is outstanding. If he can sniff those numbers, he has a future in MLB. He's only 24 and should split the season between Tennessee and Iowa if he's successful.

- Pawelek had a really tough year in 2007, which is why he is 29th on my list. But he is a 1st round pick only three seasons ago. He is only 21 and had two solid years out of three. It's not time to give up on him, but his mechanics and his stuff seem to be regressing. If the Cubs had a decent minor league pitching coordinator, he should be able to diagnose the problem and make suggestions to Pawelek to fix it. Once the mechanics are fixed, the stuff should come back.

[Outshined_One]

I'd say our system is slightly below average, but on the way up.

 

At this moment, the strength of this system is at Peoria and below. There are a lot of guys down there who have really nice ceilings (Vitters, Donaldson, Huseby, Hernandez, Suarez, Burke, etc) and who already have enough polish to them that there is plenty of reason for us to get excited about them. Perhaps they will not pan out, but there's enough depth in the lower levels to think that there's a good chance some of them might pan out.

 

When you get to the middle levels of the system, things get dicey. Guys like Jeff Samardzija, Tyler Colvin, Donald Veal, Ryan Harvey, Brian Dopirak, Mitch Atkins, Mark Holliman, Jose Ceda, and others all have causes for concern that are problematic. The problems vary from having low ceilings to having major flaws in their games that may never be corrected to being unknown commodities, despite being in the system for a decent amount of time. Maybe one or two of them will put it together and flourish...but don't hold your breath.

 

When you get to the upper levels of the system (including guys who were rookies last season), things look better. These guys have advanced far enough that they're already contributing or will soon be contributing to the majors. Felix Pie, Sean Gallagher, Kevin Hart, Carlos Marmol, Ryan Theriot, and Sean Marshall all appear to have roles carved out for themselves that will see them contributing meaningfully to the majors if they keep healthy. That's not too shabby.

 

We might lack superstar-caliber prospects (for now) and have depth issues at some levels of the minors. However, two years from now, I have a good feeling this system will be back in the Top 10.

[badnews]

I'd say our system is well-below average. You look at other teams around the 6-7 spots and you're dazzled, with us, it's blah.

 

Anyway, has anybody said that Josh Vitters' perfect world comparison is Nomar Garciaparra as a hitter (when he was good)? That's what I think whenever I read the Vitters scouting reports, that his upside is something like Garciaparra 2002.

[Rob]

I'd say our system is well-below average. You look at other teams around the 6-7 spots and you're dazzled, with us, it's blah.

 

Anyway, has anybody said that Josh Vitters' perfect world comparison is Nomar Garciaparra as a hitter (when he was good)? That's what I think whenever I read the Vitters scouting reports, that his upside is something like Garciaparra 2002.

 

I always think Aramis Ramirez. High average, high power, lack of plate discipline.