Braves (Ritchie) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 09/16/26, 6:40 PM

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Good news is that Zeferjahn seems like he's settling back in. Since his bad outing against Milwaukee, he's rocking a 1.69 ERA, a 3.10 xFIP, and 6 strikeouts to 3 walks. It's small sample size and it's not "mission accomplished" but he's been much better and we can accept that type of a reliever.

The slider/sweeper has been much more frisbee like of late.  If he can locate that thing, he's going to be tough on anyone.

[Geographyhater8888]

The padres could just as easily be our opponent.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The padres could just as easily be our opponent.

It feels like we have an equal chance in playing any of the three teams tbh

[bukie]

13 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

It feels like we have an equal chance in playing any of the three teams tbh

All the same, whoever it is, they'll be trapped in the room with us instead of vice versa. The Cubs offense is one nobody wants to see in the playoffs.

[macarthur31]

55 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Good news is that Zeferjahn seems like he's settling back in. Since his bad outing against Milwaukee, he's rocking a 1.69 ERA, a 3.10 xFIP, and 6 strikeouts to 3 walks. It's small sample size and it's not "mission accomplished" but he's been much better and we can accept that type of a reliever.

Zef's shown some fascinating tools; it's just a matter if 1)he can harness them, and 2)can he handle the brighter lights?  I'm lean optimistic over the long haul since he's young, but it might be a heckuva lot to expect him to sort it all out in the next few weeks.

Somewhat related, my timeline reminded me that 9 years ago on this date Wade Davis closed out the Cardinals to go 31 for 31 in save opportunities at that point in the season.  Now that dude was NAILS.

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

While I agree with what you are saying about Palencia, Rolison & Webb, why are you leaving out Zeferjahn? Did you forget about him or purposely leave him out? Also, why can’t Civale work a high pressure 7,8 or even 9th inning. Doesn’t matter who. They just need to find guys who can get the job done. 

Yep, I knew there was someone else 🤣

[squally1313]

Looking ahead through the rotation, game 1 of the playoffs is 9/29 and Holmes last start is scheduled for 9/24, so if they want, they can throw him on normal rest in game 1. The only way things get a bit weird is if the last game of the year matters, which is scheduled to be Gausman. Would love to have that be Assad so that Holmes, Shota, Gausman are on 5, 6, 7 days rest, respectively. 

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, mul21 said:

Interesting.  I hadn't really looked but I was operating under the assumption they were markedly worse against LHP.  That definitely changes how I'd approach the rotation against them.  I'd almost consider using Peterson as an opener in the Gausman game based on some of his 1st inning struggles to let him get settled against some of their worse hitters before he has to get geared up to face Schwarber and Harper.

It just came to me that I was forgetting about Boyd in these permutations. 

Then there's always the mysterious case of Justin Steele (no, Jason, I don't want you to tell me it's not going to happen)

[UMFan83]

Padres about to beat the Rockies, will put them 1 GB the Cubs (essentially 2 with the tiebreaker) with 9 to play.  Hopefully the Phillies can somehow lose tonight and also fall to 1 GB

[mul21]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

It just came to me that I was forgetting about Boyd in these permutations. 

Then there's always the mysterious case of Justin Steele (no, Jason, I don't want you to tell me it's not going to happen)

I just assumed he was being held back as the game 1 starter for the DS in this scenario.

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Padres about to beat the Rockies, will put them 1 GB the Cubs (essentially 2 with the tiebreaker) with 9 to play.  Hopefully the Phillies can somehow lose tonight and also fall to 1 GB

I'm back and forth on the Padres hot streak.  Like on the one hand good I'd much rather face them than Philly.  On the other hand having two teams right on our ass makes having to go on the road for the wildcard round that much more likely.

[gflore34]

Going to watch the White Sox and Tigers tonight, Tigers starting Valdez don't believe Murakami will be playing.  Murakami' in a brutal slump - 

On the other hand, McGonigle is having a great rookie season - 6.7 WAR - probably the odds on favorite for ROY.

Edited 20 hours ago by gflore34

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm back and forth on the Padres hot streak.  Like on the one hand good I'd much rather face them than Philly.  On the other hand having two teams right on our ass makes having to go on the road for the wildcard round that much more likely.

Well at least both the Phillies and Padres have a tougher schedule the last 9 games than the Cubs. Phillies have Milwaukee while the Padres have the Dodgers. Both LA and Milwaukee could still be trying for best record. Then the last 3 games the Phillies have TB while SD, has Arizona. Kind of hope Arizona can win a few and stay within 3 of SD. At least stay jnterested for the first game and if they win, the next one too. Cubs have Boston who will be locked in the 5th spot when they play. As for TB, they have some incentive. Best record of the 2 teams in the WS gets home field. So they may want to win too. Not like they have to rest pitchers. They have a 4 day break at the end of the season. 

[Bill Fogg]

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : 

#1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure.

#2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ].

#3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. 

#4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs.

#5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. 

#6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs.

#7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis.

#8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T.  will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early.   

#8  Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.      

[UMFan83]

33 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm back and forth on the Padres hot streak.  Like on the one hand good I'd much rather face them than Philly.  On the other hand having two teams right on our ass makes having to go on the road for the wildcard round that much more likely.

Obviously I'd prefer to play at Wrigley but I'm at the point where I'm find letting the chips fall where they may with the caveat that I want to avoid a series at Philly as much as possible.

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Obviously I'd prefer to play at Wrigley but I'm at the point where I'm find letting the chips fall where they may with the caveat that I want to avoid a series at Philly as much as possible.

Why is avoiding playing in Phillie more important than avoiding playing in SD. Phillies are actually better on the road. SD has a very good home record. What is your concern about Phillie. 

[bukie]

6 minutes ago, Bill Fogg said:

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : 

#1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure.

#2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ].

#3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. 

#4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs.

#5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. 

#6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs.

#7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis.

#8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T.  will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early.   

#8  Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.      

This is not reality, it's just arrogant confident opinion being assumed as fact. Just because you don't understand how something is calculated doesn't make it overrated.

The Cubs offense leads the majors in isolated power, walk rate, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The base running is about the only thing you could factually describe as being merely "above average".

Assuming only negative outcomes for Cubs and positive outcomes for opponents doesn't make you a realist, it makes you an ignorant cynic.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, bukie said:

This is not reality, it's just arrogant confident opinion being assumed as fact. Just because you don't understand how something is calculated doesn't make it overrated.

The Cubs offense leads the majors in isolated power, walk rate, OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. The base running is about the only thing you could factually describe as being merely "above average".

Assuming only negative outcomes for Cubs and positive outcomes for opponents doesn't make you a realist, it makes you an ignorant cynic.

While I agree with you that a lot of what he said was strictly opinion and not very knowledgeable opinion at that, I didn’t find his post to suggest only negative outcomes for the Cubs and positive outcomes for opponents. He even said the Cubs are good enough to win the WS. Specified he didn’t say they would, but they could. I agree with that.

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Bill Fogg said:

I only want to post once so here goes : don't even suggest that J. Steele is coming back this year. Quit Overemphasizing WAR, it's the result of a rating but doesn't take into account how it is earned. Let's take a step into reality : 

#1. The Cubs have an excellent defense by any measure.

#2. The Cubs have an above average offense [ let's not get carried away ].

#3. Cubs starting pitching is okay, not great but good enough in the right matchups combined with their offense to win a World Series. 

#4. Please note that I wrote good enough to win a World Series not that they will. There are a lot of factors including luck that the winning team needs.

#5 The Cubs bullpen is their most glaring weakness, the way baseball is played in the playoffs places a heavy emphasis on a quality bullpen. The Padres are the most dangerous team after the Brewers & Dodgers because of their bullpen. 

#6 In the playoffs teams will seldom utilize more than their top 3 starters or top setup men and normal closer. Pitchers #9-13 are basically unimportant when it comes to the playoffs.

#7. Long term statistical analysis shows that left-handed pitching is more effective against left-handed hitting and vice versa with righties. Statistical anomalies for a season or so may occur but in the long run almost all managers go with the long term analysis.

#8. With regards to Reality #7 : The Cubs 5 starting pitchers have not separated themselves very far by performance. The selection of who to start should come down to the matchup of who they play. If it's the Phillies it should be Boyd, Holmes, and Imanaga. The Philly lineup is predominately left handed: Schwarber, Harper, Arraez, Stott, Marsh are their most dangerous hitters. It is probably better to throw a righty in Game #2 in case of a game #3. Using 3 lefty starters in a row could increase the Phillies effectiveness against lefties in Game #3. I selected the above 3 starters because I think that Peterson will probably be better suited in relief than Imanaga. Rolliston will be used frequently and Caleb T.  will probably be used also. Zefferjahn, Palencia, Civale, and Thornton will be the most used right handers. Neither Assad or Rea should be used unless it's a blowout or a starter leaves early.   

#8  Anyone that suggests that Webb can/will get back on track for the playoffs is dreaming.      

"The Cubs have an above average offense"

My guy, they've scored 30 runs more than any other team in baseball. You don't have to get carried away. They have the best offense in baseball. It's not particularly close.
 

[bukie]

18 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

While I agree with you that a lot of what he said was strictly opinion and not very knowledgeable opinion at that, I didn’t find his post to suggest only negative outcomes for the Cubs and positive outcomes for opponents. He even said the Cubs are good enough to win the WS. Specified he didn’t say they would, but they could. I agree with that.

"Steele is not coming back"
"Webb isn't going to get back on track"
"Thielbar will be the most used righty out of the pen because Counsell"

Meanwhile,
"The Padres are the most dangerous team because of their pen" - Pads have the fewest runs scored of any team in the NL postseason and Walker Buehler is their second best starter, the bullpen is meaningless if they don't get a lead.
"The Phillies top 5 hitters are dangerous lefties, so lefties are the best option regardless of what the statistics say this year" - The Phillies have a terrible offense this season, especially Arraez since he came over in a trade. 

The reality is there are 4 teams a tier above in the NL playoffs, and the Padres and Phillies aren't one of them. Now, if they somehow end up in ATL for the wildcard, that's more concerning, but I don't think they're outmatched by the Braves, and would only be slight underdogs against the Brewers and Dodgers, regardless of the close losses over the last 2 weeks.

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Why is avoiding playing in Phillie more important than avoiding playing in SD. Phillies are actually better on the road. SD has a very good home record. What is your concern about Phillie. 

I want to play in ballparks that suppress HRs.  Petco likely will (though the games might be during the day where it carries better), Wrigley is more likely to have the wind blowing in.  Citizens Bank Park a launching pad usually.  

[bukie]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I want to play in ballparks that suppress HRs.  Petco likely will (though the games might be during the day where it carries better), Wrigley is more likely to have the wind blowing in.  Citizens Bank Park a launching pad usually.  

Any specific reason you wouldn't want the team with the most HR in baseball to be in a good spot for hitting HRs?

[Stratos]

12 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I want to play in ballparks that suppress HRs.  Petco likely will (though the games might be during the day where it carries better), Wrigley is more likely to have the wind blowing in.  Citizens Bank Park a launching pad usually.  

Problem is they would suppress our hitter's HR as well.

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I want to play in ballparks that suppress HRs.  Petco likely will (though the games might be during the day where it carries better), Wrigley is more likely to have the wind blowing in.  Citizens Bank Park a launching pad usually.  

I think worrying about the ballpark the Cubs play in is losing the forest for the trees, here. Opposing players are much more impactful than park factors. Citizen Bank is 3rd for home runs and Petco is 11th for HR's over the last 3 years, To put this in another way of looking at it: Hitters hit the ball 2.9 feet further than average at Citizen's Bank (this year). At Petco it's 6.9 feet below average. I'm not going to really worry much about 10 feet.

Last year? It was 1 foot above average at Citizen's Bank and under four feet less than average at Petco (most year's it's around these levels). So five feet last year. This isn't worth a bother.

[gflore34]

Of Murakami' hit a 3 run HR off Valdez, I don't know anything about baseball - true fact.