Cubs Reds Game 3

[BKHoo]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's just going to be too late to build him up and the Cubs probably won't jeopardize building him up poorly. He just started throwing again and won't be off a mound until after the ASB. He probably isn't with an affiliate before August. 6 weeks would be a traditional Spring Training (2nd week of February to April) and the Cubs cannot count on him coming back to pitch in a rotation with two-weeks to go as that would probably put him on pace to come back in the rotation come the second or third week in September.

Instead, it's likely he gets 3-4 weeks and returns as a multi-inning guy as rosters expand. But if he does that, there's not going to be time to get him from 2-3 innings to 4-5 innings, which they'll want to take slowly considering the injury. 

In the playoffs, you need bulk innings guys. And he can do that. There's a role for him. He can be a "super-opener" or an elite piggyback. 

Yes good points.  Maybe I am just hopeful he comes out pitching great and challenges the plan a bit. 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

It's just going to be too late to build him up and the Cubs probably won't jeopardize building him up poorly. He just started throwing again and won't be off a mound until after the ASB. He probably isn't with an affiliate before August. 6 weeks would be a traditional Spring Training (2nd week of February to April) and the Cubs cannot count on him coming back to pitch in a rotation with two-weeks to go as that would probably put him on pace to come back in the rotation come the second or third week in September.

Instead, it's likely he gets 3-4 weeks and returns as a multi-inning guy as rosters expand. But if he does that, there's not going to be time to get him from 2-3 innings to 4-5 innings, which they'll want to take slowly considering the injury. 

In the playoffs, you need bulk innings guys. And he can do that. There's a role for him. He can be a "super-opener" or an elite piggyback. 

I agree that Steele will not start this year. I could see a piggy back situation with him and Brown. Maybe each pitch 3 or 4 innings. Of/when they make the playoffs, I would expect an interesting use of the pitching staff. But it actually might work ok. 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Yes good points.  Maybe I am just hopeful he comes out pitching great and challenges the plan a bit. 

I'm hopeful too. He's had a really windy path to being a Cub's mainstay he probably deserves a playoff moment as much as anyone on the roster. For years he was one of the very few reasons to watch and then to miss all of last year had to sting. 

I think it shapes up perfectly, though. The Cubs probably aren't going to enter the playoffs with more than three guys you feel really comfortable with starting a playoff game. Between Cabrera, Shota, Boyd and someone traded for, one will likely struggle down the stretch or be hurt. The Cubs will need a strong BP behind the group, and it's kind of hard to get much more stable than seven outs of Justin Steele to lock down a few innings building up to the end of the game.

[NorthsideAvenger]

For the second half, I need Nico to get back to being the Nico that earned that extension. 

I'm not convinced the division is out of reach right now. So if the Cubs plan on making that run, we all know Bregman and Hoerner has to step up their games. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

someone smarter than me has to explain Nico. His baseball savant page is almost identical to last year but we've all seen the difference in results. it's hard to believe it's all bad luck

[Stratos]

42 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

someone smarter than me has to explain Nico. His baseball savant page is almost identical to last year but we've all seen the difference in results. it's hard to believe it's all bad luck

Not that I'm smarter than you or anyone, but i just looked in FG at his other numbers and since May 9 he's pulling the ball a bit less than last year, but literally everything else is virtually the same.  It really seems like bad luck.  Just hitting it at people.

Last year his xBA, xSLG, xWOBA  matched his real results extremely closely.  Since May 9 his BA is .204 vs .280 xBA and .259 SLG vs .342 xSLG.  

Edited yesterday at 04:17 AM by Stratos

[Geographyhater8888]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Not that I'm smarter than you or anyone, but i just looked in FG at his other numbers and since May 9 he's pulling the ball a bit less than last year, but literally everything else is virtually the same.  It really seems like bad luck.  Just hitting it at people.

Last year his xBA, xSLG, xWOBA  matched his real results extremely closely.  Since May 9 his BA is .204 vs .280 xBA and .259 SLG vs .342 xSLG.  

He has an xWOBA of someone with a 103 wRC+, he’s at 79. Good bet that he’ll baseball his way back into the mid-high 90’s by seasons end. 

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

someone smarter than me has to explain Nico. His baseball savant page is almost identical to last year but we've all seen the difference in results. it's hard to believe it's all bad luck

When things like this happen, the answer is almost "baseball is weird" and it's just bad luck. It's not a fun answer as fun answers usually involve some sort of a mechanical or approach fix that is more tangible than "idk, wait it out?" But this time I think it's a pretty clear "idk wait it out" situation. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

He has an xWOBA of someone with a 103 wRC+, he’s at 79. Good bet that he’ll baseball his way back into the mid-high 90’s by seasons end. 

Which would be great. The fact that the Cubs are playing at a 91 win pace with really only 1 guy outperforming what was expected of him and the numerous pitching injuries, of which some will be coming back, is encouraging moving towards the last 66 games. Even if for the last 66 games guys like Hoerner, Happ, Busch, Swanson and Bregman all play to the stats on the back of their baseball cards that should be an even better offense. The catchers spot has been solid for 2 years now, but no one is really over performing there. Seiya has been steady. If this team can get even a little luck with pitching they can catch the Brewers. But if they don’t catch the Brewers, if all this happens they will still be dangerous in the playoffs. 

[Geographyhater8888]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Which would be great. The fact that the Cubs are playing at a 91 win pace with really only 1 guy outperforming what was expected of him and the numerous pitching injuries, of which some will be coming back, is encouraging moving towards the last 66 games. Even if for the last 66 games guys like Hoerner, Happ, Busch, Swanson and Bregman all play to the stats on the back of their baseball cards that should be an even better offense. The catchers spot has been solid for 2 years now, but no one is really over performing there. Seiya has been steady. If this team can get even a little luck with pitching they can catch the Brewers. But if they don’t catch the Brewers, if all this happens they will still be dangerous in the playoffs. 

The pitching staff is too limiting to give me any confidence that they’ll catch Milwaukee, especially with the difficulty of the remaining schedule, even at full projected health. Palencia will help I guess, they might’ve avoided that blown 5-0 lead to Toronto and held on for the sweep on Thursday.

Edited yesterday at 11:15 AM by Geographyhater8888

[CubUgly]

8 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

For the second half, I need Nico to get back to being the Nico that earned that extension. 

I'm not convinced the division is out of reach right now. So if the Cubs plan on making that run, we all know Bregman and Hoerner has to step up their games. 

What an unexpected disappointment.  I can't see him hitting this poorly the rest of the year, just no way.  The break will be good for him.  Hopefully, the Nico we all know returns for the second half. 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

Cubs were 9-16 versus the Mets, Phillies and Reds last year. So far they’re 19-2 with 6 regular season games remaining.

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The pitching staff is too limiting to give me any confidence that they’ll catch Milwaukee, especially with the difficulty of the remaining schedule, even at full projected health. Palencia will help I guess, they might’ve avoided that blown 5-0 lead to Toronto and held on for the sweep on Thursday.

It will not be easy, but it can be done. And it gets easier if there is any issues with Mis. They may just be being cautious with him, but if he is having any arm issues that team can crumble quickly. 
I also feel the Brewers remaining schedule is tougher than the Cubs. 

Edited yesterday at 12:04 PM by Rcal10

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Which would be great. The fact that the Cubs are playing at a 91 win pace with really only 1 guy outperforming what was expected of him and the numerous pitching injuries, of which some will be coming back, is encouraging moving towards the last 66 games. 

It's a minor miracle given our pitching.  The pen full of JAGs has been living off pixie dust.

PCA not just exceeding expectations but blowing them away and making up for multiple guys on down years.

[JBears79]

9 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

someone smarter than me has to explain Nico. His baseball savant page is almost identical to last year but we've all seen the difference in results. it's hard to believe it's all bad luck

I think I watched Nico hit like 6-7 balls hard to RF and it was right at the RF. I think its a combo of bad luck and his confidence is gone right now.

[CubUgly]

7 minutes ago, Stratos said:

It's a minor miracle given our pitching.  The pen full of JAGs has been living off pixie dust.

PCA not just exceeding expectations but blowing them away and making up for multiple guys on down years.

No doubt, Considering the legit decimation of the pitching staff, both starters and relievers and basically the whole lineup not hitting as a whole for about a 5-week stretch, the record is better than anyone would could or should have expected.

Honestly, Rea has been better than Taillon and Assad has been better than Cabrera, but we expected to have had Steele back by now and to have had Horton and it is very reasonable to expect they would have been better than any of those 4.  And the bullpen we are throwing out there it's crazy we can hold on to any lead.

Truly great job buy CC. 

[Bertz]

Mooney had a rundown of the various injured pitchers in his latest article

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7441288/2026/07/12/cubs-all-star-break-more-pitching-trade-deadline/

I'm doing some inferring, but broadly it sounds like

Taillon - Back next weekend

Palencia - Supposed to start throwing bullpens after the break, so let's say back right around the TDL?

Cabrera - Supposed to "ramp up his throwing program" in late July, so let's say back half of August for him

Steele - Won't be throwing off a mound until early August, so probably September

Brown - No timetable given, but Craig was uncharacteristically emphatic he's not done for the year.  Sounds like he's probably going to come back as a reliever

Harvey - Sounds like his arm is still a bit achey, so they're at the point they're just saying horsefeathers and going to see if he can work through it.  I suspect it'll be one of those where he has "rules" like no back-to-backs, has to pitch if he warms up, starts innings clean, etc.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

It's a minor miracle given our pitching.  The pen full of JAGs has been living off pixie dust.

PCA not just exceeding expectations but blowing them away and making up for multiple guys on down years.

I’m not sure PCA can’t keep this up, however. If he draws walks there is no reason he can’t be a .280/.360/.480 guy. I mean, he will come down a little from what he is doing now, but not that much. He ain’t exceed what he did in the first half of last year. And this time it seems more sustainable because he has added walking to his profile. 

[CubUgly]

38 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I’m not sure PCA can’t keep this up, however. If he draws walks there is no reason he can’t be a .280/.360/.480 guy. I mean, he will come down a little from what he is doing now, but not that much. He ain’t exceed what he did in the first half of last year. And this time it seems more sustainable because he has added walking to his profile. 

I feel very confident he won't nose dive in the second half like he did last year. 

[chibears55]

11 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

someone smarter than me has to explain Nico. His baseball savant page is almost identical to last year but we've all seen the difference in results. it's hard to believe it's all bad luck

Feels to me like hes hitting alot more flyballs then usual,  he needs to get back to hitting line drives and ground balls in the hole.

[NorthsideAvenger]

Courtesy of Brett Taylor but  he mentioned that Bregman started feeling good around the Brewers series and since that series Bregman has gone .250/.339/.521 with a 134 wRC. If this holds, then I hoping for a big second half for Bregman.

[I owned a Suzuki]

I fully expect Bregman, Nico and Busch to have better 2nd halves. To me pitching is still the biggest concern. But the big positive with all the pitching injuries is potentially a more rested staff in October. That seemed to work out great for the Dodgers last yr

I think Milwaukee is intentionally resting Mis and his arm is just fine. Easy to do with a 6 gamelead

[squally1313]

Going through the offensive starters is a little discouraging on an individual basis. Without getting too under the hood, Happ, Suzuki, Busch, Bregman, Dansby are all down pretty significantly in xwOBA compared to last year. Nico is obviously struggling but his expected metrics seem fine, so not super worried there unless he tries to force his way out of it and makes it worse.

Obviously the overall results are very good, and while we're outperforming our overall xwOBA by a little bit (5 points), we're still good. 4th in wOBA, 9th in xwOBA. While some of that is just The PCA Show (and there's even more of that when you talk overall fWAR)....I think what also helps is just how there's not really a weak spot anywhere right now. Last year on July 13 you had 232 PAs of Matt Shaw, 131 Justin Turner PAs, and 103 Berti PAs where they were all negative players. This year, Ballesteros is sitting at 0.0 through 175 PAs, but everyone else with a meaningful amount of PAs has contributed at least half a win, and 8 guys are over 1.

Outside of Nico no one is really getting unlucky, so it's not just a matter of waiting for the bounces, but there's a reasonable hope for at least some of those guys listed above to just start hitting like they used to so that we can absorb injuries or the inevitable PCA dip. 

Anyways, get pitching. 

[Geographyhater8888]

19 hours ago, CubUgly said:

I feel very confident he won't nose dive in the second half like he did last year. 

Yeah. He struggled against the Reds and Brewers going 1-20 and yet walked a a total of 9 times. His floor is so much higher.