Padres (TBD) vs Cubs (Imanaga): 6/29/26, 7:05pm

[BKHoo]

Did the ivy take the ball away?

[Derwood]

Of course the stupid Brewers won. Reds can't do anything right

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

I see the Brewers are playing the Reds again so that's more free wins for them

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, BKHoo said:

Did the ivy take the ball away?

Didn’t Happ lose a ball near that same spot earlier in the game? Would be funny if that’s the ball that came out when he hit the ivy

[Irrelevant Dude]

In real time, I was in favor of sending Dansby.  In hindsight, it looked like a bad send.  I'm curious what the statistics would say on the one - How often the outfielder makes that throw compared to how often a runner on third with 1 out scores against Mason Miller.  At the very least, I think sending Swanson was a defensible call.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

Guys taking their walks even during massive struggles seems like a team wide thing. Need to think on it more, but their team walk rate is the best of any team this decade. Almost feel like there’s some very purposeful direction with the new ABS system and the zone essentially changing/shrinking 

Yeah, I'd guess a little bit of it is the ABS system. League wide-walk rate is over 9%; which is up .5-1% over the last few years. I don't think that big of a league-wide jump with ABS is an accident. It's also the lowest percentage of pitches that the league has seen in the heart/shadow over the last five. 

But here's one thing that wouldn't affect ABS: it's easily the highest% of waste pitches over that span, an almost 2% rise over the highest over that span. And the lowest, by around 2% in the heart. Neither of that would really change over the ABS. 

My best assumption off the top of my head is a combination of: stuff is getting insane and harder to control, and there is just a rash of pitching injuries across baseball right now. That has to be apart of this. 

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

Man, the trade deadline is going to be fascinating.  The Cubs are in such an interesting position with seemingly insurmountable injuries but somehow being able to hold things together.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

padres broadcast showed a graphic before the 9th that they were the only team without a walkoff loss this year. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Cubs dead last in pitching war in June and only 14th in ERA.

Miller’s allowed 6/16 hits this season against the Cubs in 2.1/34.2 innings.

Edited 8 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Even while PCA has leveled off, he’s been on base 8/19 PAs with 2 stolen bases since Friday. His floor as a hitter is so much higher if this sticks.

Edited 8 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Brian707]

7 hours ago, Derwood said:

Of course the stupid Brewers won. Reds can't do anything right

They are soon to be embarking on an 11 game road trip which includes 5 in St Louis.  Hopefully its hot and humid 

[mul21]

34 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

They are soon to be embarking on an 11 game road trip which includes 5 in St Louis.  Hopefully its hot and humid 

The heat index is going to be like 107 here today.

[CubUgly]

11 hours ago, Derwood said:

Do JD and Boog work anymore?

Yeah, gotta wonder how many games their contracts require, seems like they miss a significant percentage both.

And if the hope was Elise might forge the chemistry with Alex others have not been able to, seemed to be a swing and a miss at least from my perspective.  I really feel for Alex, seems like a nice dude.   

[PeanutPunch33]

I and many others on here have been critical of Counsell over the last few years, but this is the best managing job I've seen from a Cubs skipper in a decade.  If the Cubs make the playoffs, he should get serious consideration for manager of the year.  He's held this thing together, despite the many injuries and underperformance from some vets.  

[Radar3454]

9 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

One thing that's important: Pete cooled off, but his approach didn't. And that's new information. We've seen him run a pattern of: better approach, get hot, go nuclear, get overly aggressive, cool off terribly and stay aggressive. 

This time the calm demeanor at the plate is there post nuclear cooloff. And it comes with a mechanical change. I don't think he's super-saiyan walk guy, but I kind of buy the approach mostly sticking around.

38 BB already this year 29 all of last year. Very impressed with his improvement 

[Geographyhater8888]

17 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I and many others on here have been critical of Counsell over the last few years, but this is the best managing job I've seen from a Cubs skipper in a decade.  If the Cubs make the playoffs, he should get serious consideration for manager of the year.  He's held this thing together, despite the many injuries and underperformance from some vets.  

CC is streaky. He was great in April, sucked in May and early June and is back to being a manager of the year candidate.  We need more consistency.

[Geographyhater8888]

11 minutes ago, Radar3454 said:

38 BB already this year 29 all of last year. Very impressed with his improvement 

It’s mind blowing that he has a 370 OBP 85 games in. Thinking he’d ever be this high at any point of his career this many games in seemed optimistic, let alone this year back in early April. 

Edited 5 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Derwood]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

CC is streaky. He was great in April, sucked in May and early June and is back to being a manager of the year candidate.  We need more consistency.

It's almost like he has very little effect on the games and is at the mercy of his players executing

[Outshined_One]

Side note, it's nice to see the Doom Squad being positive!  I've wanted to strangle a handful of you over the last two months and it's good to see you're not all the types who come out of the woodwork when this team sucks, only to go back to ground when the Cubs hit a random ten game winning streak or 15-5 stretch.

[squally1313]

It's June 30. Despite many people confidently stating that we'd be out of the playoff race by the end of the month, here's where we currently sit.

• 47-38, which is an 89.5 win pace
• FG has us with a 70.2% chance to make the playoffs, a 11.8% chance to win the division, and a 5.7% chance to get a bye. Mentioning that last piece because Jed is on record, very frustratingly, as saying whether the team is competing for the bye is somewhat of a bellwether for their trade deadline decision making. I disagree.
• The Cubs offense, in overall metrics, is the second best in baseball. We are 4th in wOBA/wRC, 9th in xwOBA, 6th in runs scored. 8th best baserunning team, pretty comfortably the best defensive team in baseball.
• To the extent this matters, we are now 15th in wRC (102) with RISP, and 4th in wRC (119) in what FG defines as high leverage PAs.
• PCA is the best offensive player in baseball and trails only Ohtani for total value. Overall C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B production has been between 12th and 13th, RF is 6th, LF is 8th, CF is comfortably 1st, as is total outfield production. DH is 20th. 

(feel free to stop now)

• Cubs pitching is 28th in baseball in fWAR. 17th in ERA, 24th in xERA, 25th in FIP, 17th in xFIP. We have the 24th highest K rate in baseball, the 10th lowest BB rate, the worst HR/9 rate, and the second lowest BABIP against.
• The starting pitching is 25th in baseball, the bullpen is 26th.
• If you want to squint and see a bright side here, we're basically at the point where we're rolling out largely replacement level pitchers in every role (which is slightly unfair to Shota and hopefully to Boyd, but is generous to at least half of the bullpen), so no matter how many more injuries they throw at us, it can't get much worse. Boyd goes tonight, Wiggins is on the mend, you hope we see at least someone from the Brown/Cabrera/Steele/Wiggins/Palencia group. 
• Even if you do, this is a bad, severely beat up pitching staff. And no, I will not get excited for Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks.

In the latest NSBB prospect rankings, 10 of the top 11 prospects were hitters. 5 spots in the lineup are locked in through at least 2029, and that's before considering Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros. The path forward, to me, seems obvious. This is a playoff team, make them as good of a playoff team as you can, which means pitching and more pitching. 

[Geographyhater8888]

25 minutes ago, Derwood said:

It's almost like he has very little effect on the games and is at the mercy of his players executing

I think his ejection last week was worth at least 1 war by inspiring everyone to beat Milwaukee. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's June 30. Despite many people confidently stating that we'd be out of the playoff race by the end of the month, here's where we currently sit.

• 47-38, which is an 89.5 win pace
• FG has us with a 70.2% chance to make the playoffs, a 11.8% chance to win the division, and a 5.7% chance to get a bye. Mentioning that last piece because Jed is on record, very frustratingly, as saying whether the team is competing for the bye is somewhat of a bellwether for their trade deadline decision making. I disagree.
• The Cubs offense, in overall metrics, is the second best in baseball. We are 4th in wOBA/wRC, 9th in xwOBA, 6th in runs scored. 8th best baserunning team, pretty comfortably the best defensive team in baseball.
• To the extent this matters, we are now 15th in wRC (102) with RISP, and 4th in wRC (119) in what FG defines as high leverage PAs.
• PCA is the best offensive player in baseball and trails only Ohtani for total value. Overall C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B production has been between 12th and 13th, RF is 6th, LF is 8th, CF is comfortably 1st, as is total outfield production. DH is 20th. 

(feel free to stop now)

• Cubs pitching is 28th in baseball in fWAR. 17th in ERA, 24th in xERA, 25th in FIP, 17th in xFIP. We have the 24th highest K rate in baseball, the 10th lowest BB rate, the worst HR/9 rate, and the second lowest BABIP against.
• The starting pitching is 25th in baseball, the bullpen is 26th.
• If you want to squint and see a bright side here, we're basically at the point where we're rolling out largely replacement level pitchers in every role (which is slightly unfair to Shota and hopefully to Boyd, but is generous to at least half of the bullpen), so no matter how many more injuries they throw at us, it can't get much worse. Boyd goes tonight, Wiggins is on the mend, you hope we see at least someone from the Brown/Cabrera/Steele/Wiggins/Palencia group. 
• Even if you do, this is a bad, severely beat up pitching staff. And no, I will not get excited for Aaron Bummer and Liam Hendriks.

In the latest NSBB prospect rankings, 10 of the top 11 prospects were hitters. 5 spots in the lineup are locked in through at least 2029, and that's before considering Matt Shaw and Moises Ballesteros. The path forward, to me, seems obvious. This is a playoff team, make them as good of a playoff team as you can, which means pitching and more pitching. 

Very obvious. At least one playoff starting pitcher and probably 2 pen arms. 

[bjam12]

46 minutes ago, Radar3454 said:

38 BB already this year 29 all of last year. Very impressed with his improvement 

He's seeing it so well. His second walk on the night was a fantastic at-bat, laying off some good pitches. 

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Side note, it's nice to see the Doom Squad being positive!  I've wanted to strangle a handful of you over the last two months and it's good to see you're not all the types who come out of the woodwork when this team sucks, only to go back to ground when the Cubs hit a random ten game winning streak or 15-5 stretch.

It is, but they were still there throughout the game. You would have thought Shota gave up 6 runs with the wind blowing in the way many posters were talking about him during the game. 2 runs in 6.1 inning with the wind blowing out and not giving up a homer or even a ball hit close to a homer should have been talked about positively. Yet the entire early part of the game, if I wasn’t watching, I would have thought he was getting rocked.