Phillies (Backhus) vs Cubs (Boyd): 4/22/26, 6:40pm

[Brock Beauchamp]

Boyd is back!

	FRI	SAT	SUN	MON	TUE	TOT
Ryan Rolison	0	0	0	0	0	0
Riley Martin	12	0	14	0	17	43
Luke Little	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jacob Webb	25	0	21	0	7	53
Hoby Milner	10	0	0	26	0	36
Corbin Martin	0	0	11	18	0	29
Caleb Thielbar	0	14	16	0	6	36
Ben Brown	0	38	0	0	0	38

[muntjack]

Moises Ballesteros now has the highest wRC+ in the NL (>50 PA)

[Bertz]

Presumably Rolison or Little out for Boyd.  And I'd guess Assad needs another day of rest after his Sunday start but is a bullpen option starting tomorrow?

Bullpen won't be in good shape until Palencia is back, but I feel like it's back to being in okay shape.  We got very lucky that the offense went supernova while the pen was in tatters.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Presumably Rolison or Little out for Boyd.  And I'd guess Assad needs another day of rest after his Sunday start but is a bullpen option starting tomorrow?

Bullpen won't be in good shape until Palencia is back, but I feel like it's back to being in okay shape.  We got very lucky that the offense went supernova while the pen was in tatters.

Kind of sucks that Webb couldn’t close it out. I know Theilbar only threw 6 pitches but he was up. 9th should have been easy. Can’t even really blame Webb.

[Soul]

Unless you’re in an 8-2 streak in the last 10 games, you’re losing ground in this division.

[chibears55]

Most likely get Brown to follow Boyd today, this would be a nice game to win and take the series, tomorrow game going to be tough one against Sanchez.

[gflore34]

39 minutes ago, Soul said:

Unless you’re in an 8-2 streak in the last 10 games, you’re losing ground in this division.

Cardinals are definitely a false positive, they'll regress, not too worried about them.  Pirates have shades of being a false positive as well, pitching is very good, line up is terrible, what happens if one or more of their arms goes down?  Reds are probably genuinely good and the Brewers, well, doesn't matter what key players get hurt.  Anyone and everyone they throw out on the field produces. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

Cardinals are definitely a false positive, they'll regress, not too worried about them.  Pirates have shades of being a false positive as well, pitching is very good, line up is terrible, what happens if one or more of their arms goes down?  Reds are probably genuinely good and the Brewers, well, doesn't matter what key players get hurt.  Anyone and everyone they throw out on the field produces. 

The Reds have the league's 3rd worst wRC+ and the league's 4th worst fWAR for position players and are running a +3 RD. They're a false positive as well if they don't start hitting. Their pitching is fine, but a 9th best ERA and the 12th best fWAR on the pitching side cannot cover up being this bad offensively most nights.

The wins they have don't come off the board. But what they are doing might be the most unsustainable thing in the league right now.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

So 23 games in, is Dansby's 19% walk rate a total fluke or a real change in approach?

[chibears55]

Watching Iowa, saw that after being released and testing FA, Dylan Carlson decided to return to Cubs/Iowa and just hit his 2nd homerun in 2 days..  lol

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

So 23 games in, is Dansby's 19% walk rate a total fluke or a real change in approach?

A little of column A a little of Column B, probably. 

He's chasing less (25% to 21% from last to this year), And his first pitch swing% is way down (38.8% to 20%). That said he's getting 10% less strikes in general, and he's gotten less pitches on the edge. 

So it's probably a two-fold answer: Dansby is being selective currently and picking out good pitches more often than he has in the past. Pitchers are also throwing way less pitches in the zone. At some point MLB teams will readjust to that, so we'll see where go from that. 

[cl smooth]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

A little of column A a little of Column B, probably. 

He's chasing less (25% to 25% from last to this year), And his first pitch swing% is way down (38.8% to 20%). That said he's getting 10% less strikes in general, and he's gotten less pitches on the edge. 

So it's probably a two-fold answer: Dansby is being selective currently and picking out good pitches more often than he has in the past. Pitchers are also throwing way less pitches in the zone. At some point MLB teams will readjust to that, so we'll see where go from that. 

what are the chase rate %'s again? 

[cl smooth]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

Moises Ballesteros now has the highest wRC+ in the NL (>50 PA)

disclaimer: i don't want to sound like i'm fat-shaming the dude but should there be some concern about his weight? 5'8" and 215 is a few notches above beefy. love me some mo baller but his jersey looks like it's about to burst from the seams. 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

what are the chase rate %'s again? 

You caught me in the 2 minutes between edits. It's 25% and down to 21%. 

[Bertz]

25 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

A little of column A a little of Column B, probably. 

He's chasing less (25% to 21% from last to this year), And his first pitch swing% is way down (38.8% to 20%). That said he's getting 10% less strikes in general, and he's gotten less pitches on the edge. 

So it's probably a two-fold answer: Dansby is being selective currently and picking out good pitches more often than he has in the past. Pitchers are also throwing way less pitches in the zone. At some point MLB teams will readjust to that, so we'll see where go from that. 

This is so interesting to me.  Is this pure SSS or is there something about hanging out in the 9 spot that's getting him pitched like he's Bryce Harper?

[squally1313]

Backhus is an opener for Taijuan Walker, who looks thoroughly cooked. Going off the 'avoid 3 games in 4 days' approach, they're probably trying to avoid Kerkering, Mayza, Shugart, and Alvarado got pulled for an injury/injury concern last night. Backhus himself pitched Sunday and Monday, so guessing he's one inning at most. Game 3 of a four game, Monday-Thursday series is always going to test a bullpen, but put some runs up early and they might let Walker wear it for a while (and we can hopefully soak up some innings from Little or Rolison). 

[Post Count Padder]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Backhus is an opener for Taijuan Walker, who looks thoroughly cooked. Going off the 'avoid 3 games in 4 days' approach, they're probably trying to avoid Kerkering, Mayza, Shugart, and Alvarado got pulled for an injury/injury concern last night. Backhus himself pitched Sunday and Monday, so guessing he's one inning at most. Game 3 of a four game, Monday-Thursday series is always going to test a bullpen, but put some runs up early and they might let Walker wear it for a while (and we can hopefully soak up some innings from Little or Rolison). 

Yeah Walker has looked mostly bad for a bit. And their pen is also going through it. Pretty sure Shugart and Backhus were not intended to be called upon at this point in the season. 

[Post Count Padder]

I'm too lazy to read into it but people are focused on PCA's slow start and I'm worried about Busch. Is there something troublesome there?

[Bertz]

45 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I'm too lazy to read into it but people are focused on PCA's slow start and I'm worried about Busch. Is there something troublesome there?

It's *probably* just a slump, but it's worth noting that this is by a slim margin the worst slump of his Cubs career.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-busch/26319/graphs?position=NP&statArr=50&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2024&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=22&dStatArray=

His bat speed is down and his groundball rate are up, both bad things but I think we still need more runway before they hit a sample size we worry about.

[Outshined_One]

3 hours ago, cl smooth said:

disclaimer: i don't want to sound like i'm fat-shaming the dude but should there be some concern about his weight? 5'8" and 215 is a few notches above beefy. love me some mo baller but his jersey looks like it's about to burst from the seams. 

It's been the big knock on him throughout his minor league career, since his weight was seen as preventing him from being a full-time catcher.

I tend to look at it as another team's problem down the road.  The Cubs seem content to keep him at DH with emergency catching duties, and he'll be young enough during his rookie deal that he should be able to maintain his athleticism even if his weight is less than ideal, especially if he isn't catching more than a handful of games a year.

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see him shed some weight and maintain his production, but you'd think it would have happened by now.

[chibears55]

Goose one day, Rat the next, what gonna pop up tonight 😅

[mul21]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's *probably* just a slump, but it's worth noting that this is by a slim margin the worst slump of his Cubs career.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/michael-busch/26319/graphs?position=NP&statArr=50&legend=1&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&start=2024&end=2026&rtype=mult&gt1=22&dStatArray=

His bat speed is down and his groundball rate are up, both bad things but I think we still need more runway before they hit a sample size we worry about.

The bat speed being down makes me think something mechanical is going on or he's nursing some nagging injury like a sprained finger or something that's causing an issue but not necessarily bad enough to land him on the IL.  I'd be shocked if a guy his age suddenly just lost it over an offseason.

[CUBDOM4life]

[chibears55]

Boyd reinstated,  Little to Iowa

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

This is so interesting to me.  Is this pure SSS or is there something about hanging out in the 9 spot that's getting him pitched like he's Bryce Harper?

Last year 42% of his PA were with runners on base, this year so far it's 68%, RISP is 27% last year and 40% this year.  Might just be seeing less aggressive approaches because the consequences of him running into one are greater on average so far this year.