Oh No: Cade Horton Out for Season, to Undergo UCL Surgery

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is there still some ambiguity as to whether this is full blown Tommy John or another type of repair?  Or do they not know until they get into the elbow?

Won't know 'till they get in.

[imb]

3 weeks ago i would have told you i had no faith in matthew boyd and cade horton to be good and/or make it to the ASB and I still would have said this is an 88-win playoff team. there is plenty of middling pitching languishing around, the cubs' 2026 has rested and still rests on the defense (elite) and the bats (TO BE DETERMINED)

im not trying to be an optimist, because i hate this team franchise and front office, but i think we're fine. 

[Bertz]

Two blown UCLs isn't quite the kiss of death it was 10 or even 5 years ago, but it's pretty damn bad.  I think you can count on your fingers and toes still the guys who've come all the way back as SPs, and even most of them are pretty diminished (Taillon’s a good example).

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Two blown UCLs isn't quite the kiss of death it was 10 or even 5 years ago, but it's pretty damn bad.

And at only 24 years old, there is a pretty high likelihood of a 3rd down the road if he has any sort of lengthy career.

[Old Style]

FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK

[soccer10k]

[Post Count Padder]

[sneakypower]

we'll always have that 2025 2nd half

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

And at only 24 years old, there is a pretty high likelihood of a 3rd down the road if he has any sort of lengthy career.

Yeah and the 3rd time truly is a kiss of death.  Daniel Hudson got a few years on his 3rd UCL and Jonny Venters got one?  And I believe that's *it*.

That said this stuff doesn't always have rhyme or reason.  Adam Wainwright and Masahiro Tanaka each pitched for like a decade with their UCLs hanging by a thread.  Nate Eovaldi had both his TJs by 27 and has had one of the best after 30 pitching careers of the last decade.

But yeah, realistically revise your expectations for Cade way down.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Motherfuck this year already. 

[BKHoo]

55 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

we'll always have that 2025 2nd half

You men first half, right?  Take away that half and the Cubs have basically been a non-playoff team during this GM's era.  Maybe you were just talking about Cade? 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

8 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

You men first half, right?  Take away that half and the Cubs have basically been a non-playoff team during this GM's era.  Maybe you were just talking about Cade? 

pretty sure he was talking about Cade, considering the second half he had.

[CUBDOM4life]

[UMFan83]

We’re fine. It makes the job harder but Cade Horton, as awesome as he is, was not the sole reason we had deep playoff aspirations. Not ideal but plenty of time to figure it out, we have depth even if it isn’t particularly exciting, the chance that Steele comes back and is anything close to his pre-injury self and there is still a trade deadline if the SP really goes south but the Cubs are still in it. Sucks but the sky ain’t falling. 

[Bull]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

We’re fine. It makes the job harder but Cade Horton, as awesome as he is, was not the sole reason we had deep playoff aspirations. Not ideal but plenty of time to figure it out, we have depth even if it isn’t particularly exciting, the chance that Steele comes back and is anything close to his pre-injury self and there is still a trade deadline if the SP really goes south but the Cubs are still in it. Sucks but the sky ain’t falling. 

Assad showing you may be right. Steele coming back next month. It's gonna be ok.

[Rex Buckingham]

The problem is, Javier Assad and Collin Rea and Jameson Taillon can help you win plenty of regular season games... but they arent playoff starters. Horton was a guy you hoped would be ready to give you 5+ in a playoff start. Those guys might give you 3. 

[Soul]

Great.  I just heard this.  FMCL.

[UMFan83]

3 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

The problem is, Javier Assad and Collin Rea and Jameson Taillon can help you win plenty of regular season games... but they arent playoff starters. Horton was a guy you hoped would be ready to give you 5+ in a playoff start. Those guys might give you 3. 

True but even without Horton neither Assad or Rea would be projected to be in a Cubs playoff rotation. Would be Cabrera, Steele, and 2 of Boyd, Shota and Taillon. If anything you’d want an Assad or Rea to be giving 3 innings piggybacking off the 3rd and 4th starters. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

sandy alcantara going for btb madduxes, in the 9th

[gflore34]

Don't discount Shota.  Despite my hot take, he looked every bit of 2024 Shota his last start.

[Neuby]

It's been a couple days since Boyd and Horton went down Hoyer better be on the phone and getting a deal done with Giolito. 

[Brian707]

22 hours ago, Neuby said:

It's been a couple days since Boyd and Horton went down Hoyer better be on the phone and getting a deal done with Giolito. 

Waiting on Jed

[Jason Ross]

23 hours ago, Neuby said:

It's been a couple days since Boyd and Horton went down Hoyer better be on the phone and getting a deal done with Giolito. 

Giolito looks pretty cooked. Ignore the ERA for a moment from last year:
- K% was down from 25% to 19%
- o-contact% up 10%
- 3% swinging strike down
- contact% up 5%
- Stuff+ down to 92 from 97

To recap: hitters swung less (because they're hunting pitches), made more contact when they did swing, made more contact on chase pitches, stopped striking out, and his pitch shape really sucked. Not good.

There's a reason he's a free agent in April. If he wants a full-on MiLB deal with some sort of an opt-out by May-15th to show he's got something in Iowa? Sure. But beyond that, there shouldn't be any rush to offer him a spot. Rea and Assad are probably just as good, Wiggins is probably not *too* far away, and Connor Noland is probably fine for a spot start or Ben Brown if you need them. With how much time it'll take for Gio to ramp up (say, 3-4 weeks) i's probably not far off from when Boyd would be around coming back.

[Bertz]

The only thing Giolito has on Rea at this point is name recognition.  I'd take each of Brown/Assad/Wicks over him too.

To 1908's point the fact that the Braves haven't signed him (down 3 SPs with a 4th looking pretty diminished) is as much of a tell as you can find.

[CubinNY]

My opinion (obviously) is that they should let Assad and Rae pitch until they demonstrate they can't do the job. There is no sense in making a panic move or signing scrap heap guys. I'd like to give Brown a shot too, but he needs to throw more strikes. Unless he develops a better third pitch he can use with higher regularity, he isn't a starter.