Chicago Cubs Willing To Pay Luxury Tax in 2026

[Irrelevant Dude]

9 hours ago, Bertz said:

The team is currently looking at having 3-4 qualifying offer guys next winter, and if you cross the LT the compensation you get back goes from end of the 2nd round to end of the 4th round.  You can absolutely cannot just sneak over the LT by like two million.  The Cubs crossing the LT by a couple hundred grand a few years ago was a nothing-burger, this would be a disaster.

I hadn't considered this, but I think "disaster" is a bit strong here.  Maybe they even end up re-signing one or two of the QO players going into 2027, in which case the difference here isn't as pronounced.

[Geographyhater8888]

The lineup and maybe bench depth is similar to 2008 with better defenders and more speed without an elite top of the order bat. 

Edited January 19 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

8 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I hadn't considered this, but I think "disaster" is a bit strong here.  Maybe they even end up re-signing one or two of the QO players going into 2027, in which case the difference here isn't as pronounced.

Turning multiple 2nd rounders into 4ths by the margin of like Hoby Milner is a disaster.

[BigbadB]

34 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Turning multiple 2nd rounders into 4ths by the margin of like Hoby Milner is a disaster.

Agreed. You have Tyler Austin and Kevin Alcantara to figure out if you have something workable as bench/part time player bats, and if not you use Shaw a bit more and look for a suitable replacement at the deadline. I don't see a reason to go over for a bench bat. If Austin is a complete failure, try out Jonathan Long as your RH DH until the deadline.

Bench has versatility, speed, power as is, so going over the LT for what might be a moderate improvement for a limited amount of at bats seems disastrous for the QO's.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

Agreed. You have Tyler Austin and Kevin Alcantara to figure out if you have something workable as bench/part time player bats, and if not you use Shaw a bit more and look for a suitable replacement at the deadline. I don't see a reason to go over for a bench bat. If Austin is a complete failure, try out Jonathan Long as your RH DH until the deadline.

Bench has versatility, speed, power as is, so going over the LT for what might be a moderate improvement for a limited amount of at bats seems disastrous for the QO's.

I think a better point is, if you are going to go over, make it worth it to go over. I’m fine with that. Just don’t go over my $2M and drop 2 rounds on multiple picks. Also, since we are discussing picks for QO guys, would the Cubs offer Taillon a QO? I think he would take it. Happ, Nico and Seiya wouldn’t. 
If the Cubs add anyone I want Gallen. Go with a 6 man staff from the start. Work your staff like the Dodgers worked theirs. No one pitch a full season. Limit innings and have healthy pitchers for the playoffs. Then if you need a bat or another pen arm sometime during the year, you get it. You are over already so no worries about who younger putting you over the LT. 

[Dfan25]

 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

Has to be at least 2 years. You cant give up a pick plus IFA $ for a guy you lose in one year. Maybe a 3 year deal with an opt out after 2? 

[Tryptamine]

I mean the whole point of getting Gallen is to avoid the mass exodus at the end of the 2026 season.

[Rcal10]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I mean the whole point of getting Gallen is to avoid the mass exodus at the end of the 2026 season.

It is one of the points. But it also allows them to limit innings for their rotation. But yes, can’t do one year. I would rather 3 and no opt outs. But he might want one. 

[BKHoo]

Whatnp

6 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Agreed. You have Tyler Austin and Kevin Alcantara to figure out if you have something workable as bench/part time player bats, and if not you use Shaw a bit more and look for a suitable replacement at the deadline. I don't see a reason to go over for a bench bat. If Austin is a complete failure, try out Jonathan Long as your RH DH until the deadline.

Bench has versatility, speed, power as is, so going over the LT for what might be a moderate improvement for a limited amount of at bats seems disastrous for the QO's.

What positions can Shaw play besides third?

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

Whatnp

What positions can Shaw play besides third?

He came up as a second baseman, so between that and Nico being able to cover shortstop, we're pretty much covered in terms of an injury to Bregman/Swanson/Nico. Counsell also spoke a couple times about trying him out in the outfield, which has precedence (Ian Happ, Javy Baez, Tatis, Oneil Cruz). Easier said than done, but you can see the path to a Zobrist like skill set defensively. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Has to be at least 2 years. You cant give up a pick plus IFA $ for a guy you lose in one year. Maybe a 3 year deal with an opt out after 2? 

Agree, and I doubt they want to lose him next offseason with Boyd, Shota, Taillon, Rea also hitting FA.  I could even see them signing him and trading Taillon now or at the deadline to recoup money and prospects (though wouldn't get too much for him).  At the convention Jed also said he's looking for another bench OF to replace Caissie (though a guy with options who could play in Iowa seems ideal there).

Have to assume Gallen is likely better than Taillon in 2026 too, and is close to what Taillon was in age and ability when Taillon signed with us so he essentially could replace him.

Edited January 19 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Agree, and I doubt they want to lose him next offseason with Boyd, Shota, Taillon, Rea also hitting FA.  I could even see them signing him and trading Taillon now or at the deadline to recoup money and prospects (though wouldn't get too much for him).  At the convention Jed also said he's looking for another bench OF to replace Caissie (though a guy with options who could play in Iowa seems ideal there).

Have to assume Gallen is likely better than Taillon in 2026 too, and is close to what Taillon was in age and ability when Taillon signed with us so he essentially could replace him.

That has been my thought for some time now. But Taillon is one of those character guys the Cubs love. I am not sure they trade him, even if they get Gallen. They might just limit their rotation with less innings and less starts. 

[CubinNY]

Gallen would be huge. I think he's a bounce-back guy. I mean, look what they did with Boyd. 

[Hot Sauce]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Gallen would be huge. I think he's a bounce-back guy. I mean, look what they did with Boyd. 

I like Gallen much more post-Cabrera trade.

[CubUgly]

11 minutes ago, Hot Sauce said:

I like Gallen much more post-Cabrera trade.

My feelings exactly.   I didn't want to pay that much for someone who struggled last year, is older and with much less upside that Cabrera, but now that we have Cabrera, hell why not.   Makes you wonder who the first 5 will be if he comes and if they will Trade Taillon?

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

My feelings exactly.   I didn't want to pay that much for someone who struggled last year, is older and with much less upside that Cabrera, but now that we have Cabrera, hell why not.   Makes you wonder who the first 5 will be if he comes and if they will Trade Taillon?

Might be first 6 from the start. Pure 6 man rotation. Or if one of the starters is behind that would be who isn’t in the rotation. I like the idea. Keep everyone fresh through the year. 

[Stratos]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

That has been my thought for some time now. But Taillon is one of those character guys the Cubs love. I am not sure they trade him, even if they get Gallen. They might just limit their rotation with less innings and less starts. 

 True they may keep Taillon.  And yeah they may limit innings/pitches, especially for Horton and Cabrera. They may ideally want Rea and Assad in the pen to pitch multiple innings even if someone in the rotation is hurt.  Gallen would make it six SP without those guys and without Brown/Wicks/Steele.

If they have around 8-9 guys who can start they have to assume a dew of them may be on the IL at any given time.  If they sign Gallen and by miracle all 6 main SP are healthy then Horton could go to the pen and throw multiple innings.

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Might be first 6 from the start. Pure 6 man rotation. Or if one of the starters is behind that would be who isn’t in the rotation. I like the idea. Keep everyone fresh through the year. 

I'm not a fan of a 6-nan rotation. 5 days (or 6 with an off-day) between starts is a lot if you want guys to remain sharp.  Rather they just limit the pitch count a bit and piggyback the odd man out in relief.  Would keep the pen fresher too.

[CubUgly]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

 True they may keep Taillon.  And yeah they may limit innings/pitches, especially for Horton and Cabrera. They may ideally want Rea and Assad in the pen to pitch multiple innings even if someone in the rotation is hurt.  Gallen would make it six SP without those guys and without Brown/Wicks/Steele.

If they have around 8-9 guys who can start they have to assume a dew of them may be on the IL at any given time.  If they sign Gallen and by miracle all 6 main SP are healthy then Horton could go to the pen and throw multiple innings.

I really do want them to keep Taillon.  After those two epic playoff performances last year he's certainly earned it and earned my respect. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

He came up as a second baseman, so between that and Nico being able to cover shortstop, we're pretty much covered in terms of an injury to Bregman/Swanson/Nico. Counsell also spoke a couple times about trying him out in the outfield, which has precedence (Ian Happ, Javy Baez, Tatis, Oneil Cruz). Easier said than done, but you can see the path to a Zobrist like skill set defensively. 

Was a SS in college.  Played 3b/2b/SS in minors.  Played 9 games in LF in college also.

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

He came up as a second baseman, so between that and Nico being able to cover shortstop, we're pretty much covered in terms of an injury to Bregman/Swanson/Nico. Counsell also spoke a couple times about trying him out in the outfield, which has precedence (Ian Happ, Javy Baez, Tatis, Oneil Cruz). Easier said than done, but you can see the path to a Zobrist like skill set defensively. 

He played it regularly in summer ball apparently, via the Athletic this AM:

Quote

Shaw said he last played the outfield the summer after his freshman year at Maryland when he was an everyday center fielder. But this is a player who had barely played third base until asked to do so by the Cubs in the minors in 2024. Shaw showed enough growth there to earn the Opening Day nod at third as a rookie in 2025 on a team that had playoff aspirations. He handled the transition well. Both Counsell and Shaw agreed that the move from the infield to the outfield is much easier than vice versa.

Also I'm sure there are some examples people can dig up but it's kind of hard to be a bad OF with 90th percentile sprint speed.

[Cubs420psd]

 

So if the Cubs sign Gallen, that leaves.

Horton

Boyd

Shota

Cabrera

Gallen

Tallion 

Steele

Rea

 That's 7 legit starters with an 8th guy who is also pretty decent. Not to mention Assad, Wicks and possibly Wiggins.

And in that situation, I don't see how someone doesn't get traded. Its just too much of a log jam. If Ricketts is really willing to commit to another 15-20 mil a year type player to this years roster I would almost rather have Jed try to find another bat or high leverage BP arm.

 

 

Edited January 19 by Cubs420psd

[BKHoo]

43 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He played it regularly in summer ball apparently, via the Athletic this AM:

Also I'm sure there are some examples people can dig up but it's kind of hard to be a bad OF with 90th percentile sprint speed.

He is THAT fast???!!!!

[We Got The Whole 9]

48 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He played it regularly in summer ball apparently, via the Athletic this AM:

Also I'm sure there are some examples people can dig up but it's kind of hard to be a bad OF with 90th percentile sprint speed.

Yeah he can play anywhere but C and 1B, I believe.