Chicago Cubs Willing To Pay Luxury Tax in 2026

[Matthew Lenz]

The Chicago Cubs see themselves as contenders in 2026. After the offseason they've had, that is a completely justifiable viewpoint to have. In fact, a recent report suggests that they are willing to do what it takes to topple the modern-day "evil empire known" as the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that Chicago Cubs general manager Cody Hawkins has said paying the luxury tax in 2026 is "less of a consideration." He added that the team will remain active in the free-agent and trade markets if something presents itself.

Although not off the table, realistically, this likely indicates the Cubs' willingness to add payroll via trade. Cody Bellinger and Framber Valdez represent the two biggest names left on the free agent market, and the Chicago Cubs have not been tied to either player. However, the Alex Bregman signing created an opportunity to shop Matt Shaw and/or Nico Hoerner to two teams in need of versatile infield help.

It would be in those trade talks, which have reportedly already been presented, where the Cubs would be willing to add a high-impact player to their roster regardless of what it would mean for their payroll and luxury tax situation.

If the Cubs were to pay the luxury tax, which player(s) currently available would be worth it? Let us know in the comments!

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[Tryptamine]

I mean at this point there's really no one. I have zero desire to give Bellinger the 7 year deal he wants. I don't believe Eugenio is going to be materially better with the bat than Mo this year and after those two, who is out there? Sure you could add a pen arm like Seranthony Dominguez but that's not exactly a game changer.

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean at this point there's really no one. I have zero desire to give Bellinger the 7 year deal he wants. I don't believe Eugenio is going to be materially better with the bat than Mo this year and after those two, who is out there? Sure you could add a pen arm like Seranthony Dominguez but that's not exactly a game changer.

Hard to see a bat added. As you, I like Mo too. I think he will be fine. I also don’t really see a spot in the pen. They really can’t have an entire pen where the only one with options is Palencia. So I don’t see that happening. If anything, possibly they add a starting pitcher and trade Taillon. Except the only pitcher we have heard they were interested in is Gallen. While I do think he is better and will cost a little more, I am not sure they want to lose Taillon. He is another well respected veteran of character on the team. So, who knows🤷

[Bertz]

Jed mentioned something along the lines of continuing to look for depth.  I'd guess they have another move or two in them even beyond the typical NRIs.

Payroll right now is kind of in no man's land and IMO they need to bump it in one direction or another.  The team is currently looking at having 3-4 qualifying offer guys next winter, and if you cross the LT the compensation you get back goes from end of the 2nd round to end of the 4th round.  You can absolutely cannot just sneak over the LT by like two million.  The Cubs crossing the LT by a couple hundred grand a few years ago was a nothing-burger, this would be a disaster.

I think you can fit another short reliever onto the roster.  Last year the Cubs added Brasier late when it looked like the pen was full.  The fact is that you're not going to get through ST without injury.  Speaking of injury, I wonder about targeting some guys coming off of injury who can be mid-year reinforcements.  Michael Kopech?  Jordan Montgomery?

But especially knowing the team doesn't have a ton of appetite to go big at the deadline, you've gotta push payroll a little more before the season.

[JunkyardWalrus]

Still feels like they are one big bat short. There still isn’t a truly dangerous bat in the lineup with Tucker gone (I’m hoping PCA/Busch/Seiya prove me wrong.)

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Still feels like they are one big bat short. There still isn’t a truly dangerous bat in the lineup with Tucker gone (I’m hoping PCA/Busch/Seiya prove me wrong.)

Bregman? I mean who do you really expect them to get and who is a dangerous bat to you? 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Jed mentioned something along the lines of continuing to look for depth.  I'd guess they have another move or two in them even beyond the typical NRIs.

Payroll right now is kind of in no man's land and IMO they need to bump it in one direction or another.  The team is currently looking at having 3-4 qualifying offer guys next winter, and if you cross the LT the compensation you get back goes from end of the 2nd round to end of the 4th round.  You can absolutely cannot just sneak over the LT by like two million.  The Cubs crossing the LT by a couple hundred grand a few years ago was a nothing-burger, this would be a disaster.

I think you can fit another short reliever onto the roster.  Last year the Cubs added Brasier late when it looked like the pen was full.  The fact is that you're not going to get through ST without injury.  Speaking of injury, I wonder about targeting some guys coming off of injury who can be mid-year reinforcements.  Michael Kopech?  Jordan Montgomery?

But especially knowing the team doesn't have a ton of appetite to go big at the deadline, you've gotta push payroll a little more before the season.

With the differences in compensation being what is it for teams under the LT and teams over, I agree with you that if they go over they need to go more than a few million over. So if they go over I hope they make it worth it. Maybe sign Bader and let Alcantara get a year in Iowa. Maybe add Kopech.  

[JBears79]

I like the roster as is but I kind of agree it feels one bat short. I think they will be looking to add one at the trade deadline though, not right now.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

I like the roster as is but I kind of agree it feels one bat short. I think they will be looking to add one at the trade deadline though, not right now.

Who is this bat playing for? Mo? Otherwise there isn’t a spot for him. And I think Mo is going to be pretty good. Or are you looking for a bench bat? I agree they could get a right hand hitting outfielder for the bench and Alcantara could be sent down. Other than that, I don’t see the team a bat short. 

[Jason Ross]

I don't see the point in blocking Alcantara with a bench OF'er. This is the pristine way to break in a young player; in a deep lineup that isn't asking him to be a star and allowing you to truly curate his PA's. It's unlikely that the difference between any major outcomes in 2026 will hinge on him; and it's not like he wouldn't be replaceable mid-year. The team has done what it needed to at the deadline offensively; Candelario, Parades, Castro. Clearly they won't pay up for a SP, but if Kevin is struggling in July, "4th OF'er" isn't a pricy addition. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't see the point in blocking Alcantara with a bench OF'er. This is the pristine way to break in a young player; in a deep lineup that isn't asking him to be a star and allowing you to truly curate his PA's. It's unlikely that the difference between any major outcomes in 2026 will hinge on him; and it's not like he wouldn't be replaceable mid-year. The team has done what it needed to at the deadline offensively; Candelario, Parades, Castro. Clearly they won't pay up for a SP, but if Kevin is struggling in July, "4th OF'er" isn't a pricy addition. 

So then you are suggesting they are set? That is pretty much my view too. But when people suggest they need another bat, I can only see Alcantara as the spot to upgrade. I don’t agree they need to add an everyday bat. This discussion is about the Cubs adding more. Which is the only reason I suggested a bench bat. I just don’t see them adding elsewhere. I would rather add a bench bat then replace Mo in the lineup. However, I am actually fine with them not doing anything for now. 

[Derwood]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is this bat playing for? Mo? Otherwise there isn’t a spot for him. And I think Mo is going to be pretty good. Or are you looking for a bench bat? I agree they could get a right hand hitting outfielder for the bench and Alcantara could be sent down. Other than that, I don’t see the team a bat short. 

Better RF and Seiya to DH

[CubinNY]

It seems like more and more inflation at the trade deadline means the Cubs should not be holding back large sums of cash. If the opportunity presents itself just find a way to get something done. 

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I don't see the point in blocking Alcantara with a bench OF'er. This is the pristine way to break in a young player; in a deep lineup that isn't asking him to be a star and allowing you to truly curate his PA's. It's unlikely that the difference between any major outcomes in 2026 will hinge on him; and it's not like he wouldn't be replaceable mid-year. The team has done what it needed to at the deadline offensively; Candelario, Parades, Castro. Clearly they won't pay up for a SP, but if Kevin is struggling in July, "4th OF'er" isn't a pricy addition. 

Shaw's a better hitter than any backup CF you're going to find and Alcantara's a better fielder.  And if by some misfortune neither guy can cover the position, we can go back to PCA starting against lefties and batting 9th until to your point they deal with it at the deadline.  Boston Bateman was the best prospect the Padres gave up for Ramon Laureano (and Ryan O'Hearn) at this past deadline and Eric Longenhagen ranked him roughly on par with Ronny Cruz

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ranking-the-mlb-prospects-traded-at-the-2025-deadline/

 

[Tryptamine]

Yeah the Cubs don't have a superstar bat, but they have absurd depth in a line up that has a 100+ wRC+ bat at every position. Besides, who is this bat that they're going to land? It's not Suarez or Bellinger.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Better RF and Seiya to DH

So then replacing Mo in the line up. So Bellinger? Pretty sure they won’t be doing that. And I don’t want to trade for a right fielder. I think the fear of Suzuki in right is being overblown here. He isn’t Castellanos in right. 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah the Cubs don't have a superstar bat, but they have absurd depth in a line up that has a 100+ wRC+ bat at every position. Besides, who is this bat that they're going to land? It's not Suarez or Bellinger.

Kind of my thoughts too. Which is why I suggested adding a bench bat. But I also understand Jason’s point on that. So I am ok with them not adding a bat, period. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Cubs are a Kyle Tucker away. He’s no longer available. Same conversation people had in 2024 when Bellinger crashed down to earth. The lineup is much better at least. 

Edited January 18 by Geographyhater8888

[squally1313]

Michael Busch went nuclear at the very end of the year, but all the games count, and he ended up 11th in wOBA and 10th in xwOBA. xwOBA wise, Happ was 30th, Suzuki was 34th, Swanson was 43rd. If Bregman would have qualified, he'd be in the low 60s. I remember having the same complaint about the lineup a couple years ago, but my high level opinion is that back then we had a bunch of 105 wRC guys, and now we have a bunch of 115-120 wRC guys, and that makes a huge difference. Savant thinks Swanson got really unlucky last year (12th worst luck in baseball). Happ also supposedly should have gotten much better results. 

The pitching I'm less enthused by. But the defense is very good, and if the bad luck we saw offensively last year is more of a structural Wrigley Field thing, then the pitching will play up too. I don't really love anyone in our rotation right now for a Game 1 (or a do or die game), but there's plenty of time to solve that problem. 

[Dfan25]

I really don’t see a realistic bat that I would take over Ballesteros TBH . The bullpen is basically full as well .

They have 1 spot open but I personally would leave that for 1 of the minor league signings or aaa pitchers ( Hodge ,among others )

 

This may sound nuts , but i wouldn’t mind Gallen now . Use a 6 man rotation until Steele gets back and then use the IL ( Dodger style ) to rest guys .  
 

Let’s face it Cabrera is a huge risk in terms of health , and prices for SP mid season are insane . Get another SP to protect against a key injury 

Edited January 18 by Dfan25

[Derwood]

Horton is an injury risk as well (after a career high in innings)

[Dfan25]

Yeah , I mean if the assumption is that they won’t be able to add an impact starter at the deadline , considering what happened last year , then it makes a lot of sense to make another SP move now , if they are willing to make such a commitment in dollars .

Edited January 18 by Dfan25

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

I really don’t see a realistic bat that I would take over Ballesteros TBH . The bullpen is basically full as well .

They have 1 spot open but I personally would leave that for 1 of the minor league signings or aaa pitchers ( Hodge ,among others )

 

This may sound nuts , but i wouldn’t mind Gallen now . Use a 6 man rotation until Steele gets back and then use the IL ( Dodger style ) to rest guys .  
 

Let’s face it Cabrera is a huge risk in terms of health , and prices for SP mid season are insane . Get another SP to protect against a key injury 

I’ve been suggesting Gallen for some time. But I always assume they then trade Taillon. I actually like the idea of signing him and going 6 man until Steele comes back. If everyone is still healthy you then worry about trading one of them. TBH, if all are healthy they could use Horton in the pen a little to limit his innings. Or do a Dodger thing with the pitchers. Give them all time off during the season. Yep, for me, Gallen does make sense. I think the offense is fine. 

[JBears79]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Who is this bat playing for? Mo? Otherwise there isn’t a spot for him. And I think Mo is going to be pretty good. Or are you looking for a bench bat? I agree they could get a right hand hitting outfielder for the bench and Alcantara could be sent down. Other than that, I don’t see the team a bat short. 

im talking more a bench bat. A right handed OF would be ideal. Id like to see someone with some power there, Alcantara definetly fits the mold but hes still unknown.

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, JBears79 said:

im talking more a bench bat. A right handed OF would be ideal. Id like to see someone with some power there, Alcantara definetly fits the mold but hes still unknown.

So what, its the friggin bench. And hes an outstanding defender too. They need to play him.