Cubs Can't Count on Edward Cabrera or Any Other Returning Arms as They Plan Beyond Trade Deadline

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Injured Chicago Cubs starter Edward Cabrera began his rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa Friday night. In the I-Cubs clubhouse, he might have bumped into teammates Ethan Roberts and Hoby Milner, who are each already on the same path back to the majors. Meanwhile, over the weekend, the Cubs will put Justin Steele and Daniel Palencia back on mounds at Wrigley Field, as each builds toward rehab assignments of their own. From their perches on the rubber, each hurler might spot Ben Brown, still on flat ground but throwing daily in his own quest to return this year.

Out in Arizona, in the searing heat of the sun but removed a bit from the heat of the Chicago spotlight, Hunter Harvey and Shelby Miller are doing the same thing: steady buildup. Each is on a throwing program that gives them at least an outside shot of contributing down the stretch, although the fact that they're so geographically remote reflects the figurative distance between them and big-league readiness neatly.

That's not a normal amount of important rehab work being done by pitchers for a playoff hopeful. Those are eight names, including three or four who would have appeared on any list of the 10 most important hurlers to the 2026 Cubs if you'd made such a tally in March. It's tempting to imagine a world in which even half of them—let's say Cabrera, as a starter, and Palencia, Milner and Steele as relievers—come back at full strength and transform a below-average pitching staff into a World Series-caliber one, just in the nick of time.

No sooner can you conjure that mental image, though, than you surely flash on another, less welcome one. It's Monday evening, and you're watching Jed Hoyer's post-trade deadline press conference. And in your gut, you feel a cold fury you can't fully place, until his voice comes into focus and you hear it:

"We obviously, you know, weren't able to get anything bigger across the finish line here, but we feel very confident about our pitching staff. We have a lot of guys coming back."

With just over two days to go before the trade deadline Monday evening, the Cubs haven't yet made a notable addition to their pitching staff, save the emergency pickup of David Peterson in late June. Peterson has been good and looks like he'll stick in their rotation for the balance of the year, but the bullpen has received reinforcement only via minor moves, and the team has yet to pounce on a higher-end starting pitcher. It's far too early to worry much that they won't do so; they understand the scope and the urgency of their need for help on the mound.

It's essential, though, that we all avoid falling into the trap of the planning fallacy. The plan, of course, is to have Cabrera make two or three more rehab starts—his first one didn't go great; it might not have moved him closer to a return—and then reinsert him into the rotation. The plan is for Milner (out since June after an emergency appendectomy) to be back in the big-league pen very soon, and for Roberts to follow, with each taking the place of journeymen whom you'll soon forget were ever Cubs. (Sorry to the Jake Woodford family, but it's true.) The plan is for Palencia to reclaim his place at the back end of the pen.

None of that is guaranteed, though. The injury histories on Cabrera, Roberts and Palencia are way too checkered to depend on that at all. Milner's particular problem—physically recovering from a relatively serious internal surgery takes time, and he was never as imposing as your average pitcher, anyway—is intractable. Meanwhile, Steele, Brown, Harvey and Miller are all very high-upside potential boosts for the bullpen, but it's too much to say that any of them are even part of the plan. Even the Cubs themselves are merely holding out hope on those four, and the difference between a plan and hope is the difference between a house and a housefly.

Nor are all the team's currently healthy options assured of staying that way. The ages and injury histories of guys like Matthew Boyd, Shota Imanaga and Javier Assad are not in their favor. Even if the team gets a couple of key arms back soon, they might lose a couple, at the same time or shortly before or after.

The Cubs absolutely must make multiple, significant upgrades to their pitching staff via trade in the next two days, unless they're comfortable punting on this season and praying on next year instead. That position feels untenable, given where they are as an organization, so their urgency should remain very high. Adding a starter has to remain a priority. Adding a could-be closer should be next on the list. That's a tall order, and one that neither Hoyer nor the farm system from which he's attempting to deal is well-suited for. If the Cubs don't find a way to fill it, though, they'll make a disappointing and early October exit.

Knowing all of that, they remain very active. The team has talked to the Mets not only about starters Freddy Peralta and Clay Holmes, but about right-handed relievers Luke Weaver and Huascar Brazobán and lefty Brooks Raley. They remain engaged with the Angels on Reid Detmers, and they've talked to the Tigers about multiple available pitchers, though sources familiar with the conversations said the team is more likely to obtain Casey Mize than Tarik Skubal if they end up making a deal with former Cubs front-office wonk Scott Harris.

In a perfect world, the team would acquire Emerson Hancock of the Mariners, who is available if the return is big enough and if they get immediate help on offense. That would mean giving up Pedro Ramírez, but the Cubs would also have to add "at least" one more good piece (likely a prospect), according to a source familiar with Seattle's plans. Hoyer excels at casting wide nets. He doesn't do nearly as well at the more important task of hauling in his quarry. That has to change this weekend, because the Cubs can't afford to count on gettng healthy at the right time. The odds of that are far too long.