Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[JunkyardWalrus]

5 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Dodgers are gearing up for Skubal. 

Would be fun if that's what Jed's up to.

The books are going to be so clean when he's a FA...

[NorthsideAvenger]

1 minute ago, JunkyardWalrus said:

Would be fun if that's what Jed's up to.

The books are going to be so clean when he's a FA...

Of course I want Jed to be in on and then land Skubal but do you think the Cubs are going to spend 350/400m on a pitcher? They have not even broke 200m on a position player yet. 

[mk49]

22 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Dodgers are gearing up for Skubal. 

I kinda think so, too.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, mk49 said:

I kinda think so, too.

99.9 chance Skubal is a Dodger in ‘27. I wouldn’t even bother considering him. 

[mk49]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

99.9 chance Skubal is a Dodger in ‘27. I wouldn’t even bother considering him. 

Or, maybe in 2026.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Dodgers are gearing up for Skubal. 

I really hope not.  But realistically they have the farm to do it obviously.

[NorthsideAvenger]

12 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I really hope not.  But realistically they have the farm to do it obviously.

The thing is, they don't have to make a trade for him. They can simply wait until he becomes a free agent. IMO, the only things that prevent the Dodgers from getting Skubal is a work stoppage.  

[mk49]

6 minutes ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

The thing is, they don't have to make a trade for him. They can simply wait until he becomes a free agent. IMO, the only things that prevent the Dodgers from getting Skubal is a work stoppage.  

You're right.  They don't need Skubal this season.  But, knowing the Dodgers, at least, they will try to trade for him now.  If they can't get him, they would most likely wait for next year, instead of trying to trade by the deadline.  

[Geographyhater8888]

17 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

ZiPS is a good system but these things can get a little wonky. Bregman is probably being dinged because of his shortened season last year where as Swanson is getting a jump because his xwOBA was actually very good. Horton is getting dinged because he wasn't a big xFIP guy last year. 

But all of that is important to remember. Swanson usually underperforms his xwOBA, so he's probably getting a little unfair benefit. Horton is a good bet, instead, to out play his projected fWAR if the progress over his last 44 innings is what we see in 2026. And Bregman can over perform that by staying healthy. 

That’s what I was thinking. Swanson had a down year defensively and any spike in fWAR would be from a progression to the mean from defensive runs. Hopefully last year way an anomaly and not because he’s on the wrong side of 30.

Is Bregman being penalized for his injury or do they project Shaw to split time over at third base and second base? Nicos fWAR projects almost a full win less so same for him.

 

Edited January 22 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

5 hours ago, mk49 said:

You're right.  They don't need Skubal this season.  But, knowing the Dodgers, at least, they will try to trade for him now.  If they can't get him, they would most likely wait for next year, instead of trying to trade by the deadline.  

Imagine paying your number 5 starter Tyler Glasnow $140 million total if they end up with Skubal.

Edited January 22 by Geographyhater8888

[KCCub]

11 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

They will be different but are they actually better than last year's team? I don't know. 

Personally, I think they are pretty damn good. That lineup is deep. 

Visual here looking at this years projections vs last season (Alonso hadn't signed when the projections were released last season, he was projected at 3 fWAR)

 

Last season:

 

Fangraphs has Robert Jr batting 8th and Benge, who is a top 20 overall prospect batting 9th. I like letting him find his footing with no pressure and there will also be no pressure on Robert Jr (We'll see if he stays healthy). SP looks much better on paper along with their BP appearing improved. 

 

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Personally, I think they are pretty damn good. That lineup is deep. 

Visual here looking at this years projections vs last season (Alonso hadn't signed when the projections were released last season, he was projected at 3 fWAR)

 

Last season:

 

Fangraphs has Robert Jr batting 8th and Benge, who is a top 20 overall prospect batting 9th. I like letting him find his footing with no pressure and there will also be no pressure on Robert Jr (We'll see if he stays healthy). SP looks much better on paper along with their BP appearing improved. 

 

Yeah, the Mets are pretty good. They're probably with the Cubs as the 2nd/.3rd best roster on paper in the NL right now. 

[CubinNY]

16 hours ago, Bertz said:

BTW click through and go to the comments section if you miss Tom

I'm not reading, but are they just as deranged or did he finally get some help?

[Stratos]

21 hours ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

It's all data based. They're always gonna low ball guys like Cade Horton because there's so little history.

Yeah without more data they have to assume for now that his overperformance was largely luck, defense, and other factors outside his control.  They project a 3.89 ERA from Horton, which is reasonable enough and I'd take that.  They have him at 125 IP, which is also reasonable given his young age and injury history.  His WAR will increase if he stays healthy and throws more IP.

Projections are always based on the 50th percentile outcomes (what is most likely to happen). Any player can outperform or underperform that.  They have 80th and 20th projectile projections for each player listed too, which is nice.

[Stratos]

21 hours ago, Bertz said:

- Steele, Boyd, Horton, Cabrera, and Shota all get better than average ERAs, Taillon and Rea below average but not disastrous

Do you know if ZiPS calculates ERA while factoring in defense, or does it factor out defense like xFIP? And does their WAR projections use ERA with defense factored, or defense neutral (xFIP) like fWAR does?

Their ERAs are projected better than the other projection systems.  I wonder why.

Without more data looks like they assume the HR issues with Wicks and Brown were just bad luck.

[Stratos]

13 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

They will be different but are they actually better than last year's team? I don't know. 

Bichette in, Alonso out. Devin Williams in, Diaz out.  Semien in, Nimmo out.  Polanco in. McNeil out.

 They're up Peralta and Robert Jr though.  They seem better on paper.  SP was the issue last year and it seems improved.  

[JunkyardWalrus]

12 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Of course I want Jed to be in on and then land Skubal but do you think the Cubs are going to spend 350/400m on a pitcher? They have not even broke 200m on a position player yet. 

Oh, no. I don't think Jed is even going to engage, but we'll hear they 'checked in' next off season

[Bertz]

33 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Do you know if ZiPS calculates ERA while factoring in defense, or does it factor out defense like xFIP? And does their WAR projections use ERA with defense factored, or defense neutral (xFIP) like fWAR does?

Their ERAs are projected better than the other projection systems.  I wonder why.

Without more data looks like they assume the HR issues with Wicks and Brown were just bad luck.

IIRC the ERAs attempt to strip out defense, but that can obviously there's some wiggle room in exactly how to apportion credit for contact management vs. defense.   Then WAR is based on ERA, look at Horton/Cabrera/Shota and you can see all three have similar ERAs, similar IP, and similar WAR despite a bit more spread in FIP. 

Generally the problems with an ERA based WAR are the randomness that a projection already attempts to control for, so I think it makes sense here even though I wouldn't want to use it for actual results.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

IIRC the ERAs attempt to strip out defense, but that can obviously there's some wiggle room in exactly how to apportion credit for contact management vs. defense.   Then WAR is based on ERA, look at Horton/Cabrera/Shota and you can see all three have similar ERAs, similar IP, and similar WAR despite a bit more spread in FIP. 

Generally the problems with an ERA based WAR are the randomness that a projection already attempts to control for, so I think it makes sense here even though I wouldn't want to use it for actual results.

So I just looked it up.  ZiPS factors in defense and park factor into its ERA projections.  That could maybe explain why ZiPS has good projections for everyone's ERAs.

[Post Count Padder]

I cannot wait to see what the return is

It was so breaking that jon used a semicolon instead of a colon

Edited January 22 by Post Count Padder

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

I cannot wait to see what the return is

It was so breaking that jon used a semicolon instead of a colon

 

[ILMindState]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

 

[Post Count Padder]

So that would be like us giving up, what......Wicks, Rojas, Christian Hernandez and Cole Mathis? Plus whoever else.

Think it really depends on what ceiling you have for Fien. Guess the Nats are enamored.

Edited January 22 by Post Count Padder

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Post Count Padder said:

So that would be like us giving up, what......Wicks, Rojas, Christian Hernandez and Cole Mathis? Plus whoever else.

Think it really depends on what ceiling you have for Fien. Guess the Nats are enamored.

Fien was the 12th pick in the most recent draft, so I'd assume the Nationals are pretty high on him, as were the Rangers. But certainly risky for his age and profile. 

[Post Count Padder]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Fien was the 12th pick in the most recent draft, so I'd assume the Nationals are pretty high on him, as were the Rangers. But certainly risky for his age and profile. 

Yeah that's fair. He's a bit away but comes with promise clearly. 

Yeremy Cabrera is the other prospect going to WSH. Some potential in this group but seems like they went for quantity.