Screw Winter Doldrums! The Get a Big Bat and Call It an Offseason Thread

[muntjack]

They have built a team without a real weakness.   They're almost mirroring with the rotation their annual bullpen strategy of throwing enough arms in there that you are bound to find over- performance.

The pen, ironically, is more locked in than usual.  The lineup has no glaring holes and the defense is probably the best in baseball.  

 

[Geographyhater8888]

If Horton stays healthy I expect him to post at least a 3 fWAR. A 44.8 is basically a 92 win team.

Edited January 21 by Geographyhater8888

[Layoutman]

On 1/17/2026 at 8:16 AM, Geographyhater8888 said:

And Shaw will replace Castro/Berti/Brujan/Looez/Workman etc. 

Amen. That bench was atrocious and structurally self-redundant. 

[Derwood]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looks like every SP except Rea is a little better here than via Steamer, and that's a healthy bump for the bullpen too.  

But good lord does it love the lineup.

 

For context, their actual 2025 fWAR:

Boyd: 3.4
Taillon: 1.1
Imanaga: 0.9
Cabrera: 2.0
Horton: 2.2
Steele: 0.0 

Kelly/Amaya: 3.4
Busch: 3.5
Hoerner: 4.8
Swanson: 3.3
Bregman: 3.5
Happ: 2.8
PCA: 5.4
Suzuki: 2.6
Mo: 0.3

[cl smooth]

Bregman is worth less than Swanson?

They are lowballing Cade Horton.

[Jason Ross]

ZiPS is a good system but these things can get a little wonky. Bregman is probably being dinged because of his shortened season last year where as Swanson is getting a jump because his xwOBA was actually very good. Horton is getting dinged because he wasn't a big xFIP guy last year. 

But all of that is important to remember. Swanson usually underperforms his xwOBA, so he's probably getting a little unfair benefit. Horton is a good bet, instead, to out play his projected fWAR if the progress over his last 44 innings is what we see in 2026. And Bregman can over perform that by staying healthy. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

17 minutes ago, cl smooth said:

Bregman is worth less than Swanson?

They are lowballing Cade Horton.

It's all data based. They're always gonna low ball guys like Cade Horton because there's so little history.

[Bertz]

- 12 hitters with an OPS+ over 100, and Kelly's just a hair below at 99

- Good lord it loves Tyler Austin and Michael Busch

- It thinks Pedro Ramirez is a gold glover?

- Not insanely bullish on Alcantara, but based on this he's the clear RHH outfielder option

- Much higher than Steamer on Assad, much lower on Brown.  Still generally views Assad/Wicks/Brown all as quality SP depth

- Steele, Boyd, Horton, Cabrera, and Shota all get better than average ERAs, Taillon and Rea below average but not disastrous

- Is outrageously in love with Hunter Harvey, likes Thielbar more than I'd expect.  A bit lighter on the rest of the pen than I'd have expected TBH

 

[Bertz]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

- 12 hitters with an OPS+ over 100, and Kelly's just a hair below at 99

- Good lord it loves Tyler Austin and Michael Busch

- It thinks Pedro Ramirez is a gold glover?

- Not insanely bullish on Alcantara, but based on this he's the clear RHH outfielder option

- Much higher than Steamer on Assad, much lower on Brown.  Still generally views Assad/Wicks/Brown all as quality SP depth

- Steele, Boyd, Horton, Cabrera, and Shota all get better than average ERAs, Taillon and Rea below average but not disastrous

- Is outrageously in love with Hunter Harvey, likes Thielbar more than I'd expect.  A bit lighter on the rest of the pen than I'd have expected TBH

 

BTW click through and go to the comments section if you miss Tom

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

- 12 hitters with an OPS+ over 100, and Kelly's just a hair below at 99

- Good lord it loves Tyler Austin and Michael Busch

- It thinks Pedro Ramirez is a gold glover?

- Not insanely bullish on Alcantara, but based on this he's the clear RHH outfielder option

- Much higher than Steamer on Assad, much lower on Brown.  Still generally views Assad/Wicks/Brown all as quality SP depth

- Steele, Boyd, Horton, Cabrera, and Shota all get better than average ERAs, Taillon and Rea below average but not disastrous

- Is outrageously in love with Hunter Harvey, likes Thielbar more than I'd expect.  A bit lighter on the rest of the pen than I'd have expected TBH

 

How and why do they have Bregman’s offensive numbers so low? .240 average and 18 homers? Really? They have Shaw similar. That is ridiculous. 

[Stratos]

On 1/19/2026 at 3:04 PM, Irrelevant Dude said:

Out of the Cubs big 3 position player free agents following this season (Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki), who do people think they are most likely to bring back? 

Prior to the Bregman signing, Hoerner was the obvious choice, but now I'm not so sure.  It may be more likely they try to keep Happ around for a few more years so they only have one corner outfield spot to fill.

I would still really prefer the Cubs keep Hoerner and reconstruct the outfield, but I think it is unlikely they commit that amount of long term money to 3/4 of the infield.

I looked at the OF free agents next offseason and besides Happ and Suzuki it's very thin, they're both the best in that class IMO.  The next best are Randy Arozarena, Trent Grisham, and George Springer.  It's going to be basically impossible to replace those 2 unless they resign 1 or both, make a trade, Alcantara performs beyond expectations, or Conrad or Kepley are ready by next year (seems unlikely).

 

[Bobson Dugnutt]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

BTW click through and go to the comments section if you miss Tom

lol he’s still doing the Disney thing

[Bertz]

18 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

lol he’s still doing the Disney thing

He also at one point had four back to back to back to back posts responding to a single comment.  Still very much at the top of his game

[Jason Ross]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He also at one point had four back to back to back to back posts responding to a single comment.  Still very much at the top of his game

The amount of dislikes his posts getting are impressive; he racked up a -15 and a -12. 

The +/- on his posts are basically like looking at Nic Castellanos' DRS year to year. 

[chibears55]

Mets about to trade for Peralta per Heyman..

Good for the Cubs, get him out of Division and off of the Brewers 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, chibears55 said:

Mets about to trade for Peralta per Heyman..

Good for the Cubs, get him out of Division and off of the Brewers 

I imagine Benge and McLean are off the table but surely at least one of Tong, Sproat, Williams are going.

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looks like every SP except Rea is a little better here than via Steamer, and that's a healthy bump for the bullpen too.  

But good lord does it love the lineup.

Yeah having 3 to 4 WAR projected at every position besides DH is really good.  They aren't very high on Mo but he's a rookie so makes sense.  He also doesn't have big power so the SLG projection is modest.

I hate that they only show OPS+ and not wRC+.  OPS+ seems to run roughly 5 points higher than wRC+ for all our hitters last year so we can translate that.   That would have Mo at around 102 wRC+ (plus poor speed lowers his offensive marks even more), yikes, hopefully we do ok at DH.  Luckily we have Austin (vs RHP when not at 1b) and Shaw as options at DH, plus Long in AAA.  Not the best options but oh well.  I don't think Jed is done adding to the bench.

Overall I think our hitters are likely a little better than we think since they'd have been victims of Wrigley wind the last 2 years.  They aren't particularly high on Bregman's bat especially power/SLG, maybe age but I assume change in ballpark is a factor.

Nothing surprising at SP, lots of depth but mainly average SP with nice upside with Cabrera, Horton, Brown.  I really like Brown if he can keep his fastballs in the ballpark.

[chibears55]

It official...

 

[Hortonhearsawho]

That's a good haul for Milwaukee 

[NorthsideAvenger]

21 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Mets about to trade for Peralta per Heyman..

Good for the Cubs, get him out of Division and off of the Brewers 

They have lost what Sterns, Counsell, Hader, Williams, Burnes, Adames, over the last few years and they just keep coming. So, losing Peralta, likely won't mean anything to them. 

[Tryptamine]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

It official...

 

Damn Sproat and Williams which is a nice haul, but the Mets didn't have to touch their top 3

[Neuby]

Mets could still  sign Valdez now and have a heck of an offseason.

[NorthsideAvenger]

1 minute ago, Neuby said:

Mets could still  sign Valdez now and have a heck of an offseason.

They will be different but are they actually better than last year's team? I don't know. 

[mk49]

The Cubs should be better than the Brewers now!  I can't underestimate them, though.

At least, Peralta didn't go to LAD, and that's good.

Edited January 22 by mk49

[NorthsideAvenger]

10 minutes ago, mk49 said:

The Cubs should be better than the Brewers now!  I can't underestimate them, though.

At least, Peralta didn't go to LAD, and that's good.

Dodgers are gearing up for Skubal.