Week 12: Bears vs Steelers Sunday at noon on CBS

[WrigleyField 22]

52 minutes ago, Banedon said:

I'd love to have the TD/INT relationship in those same games though.  Something tells me that other QB's that are under 60% are throwing a lot more picks and a lot less TD's in those same games.

I remember hearing years ago that completion percentage is one of most predictive stats for interception rate.  Obviously even a strong correlation may not be causal and/or there could be outliers that are stable. An interesting case study though to that. 

[gflore34]

4 hours ago, raw said:

If you look at the sideline angle of the last play, Nahshon jumps that route and probably has a pick 6 if Brisker doesn't tip that pass.

I wish somebody (any one or all of) on the O-line would get a game ball. They've been so good the last 9 weeks. 

I saw that, at the very least, Wright is able to knock the ball down, he was right there, either way the pass wasn't going to get completed.

[Soul]

I didn't get to see the entire game, but I just watched that Wright INT and holy crap.  A lot of WRs don't make that catch.

[Banedon]

 

[gflore34]

Watched Vikings - Packers highlights and wow, McCarthy looked awful.  There was some Justin Fields like stuff there, holding on to the ball, bewilderment, a weird ass INT.  For good measure sprinkle in another special teams horsefeathers up and there you have it.

[Banedon]

58K views · 1.3K reactions | Aaron Rodgers knew it right away 📺: CBS...

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Aaron Rodgers knew it right away 📺: CBS

 

[Wilson A2000]

 

[gflore34]

Just hilarious reading about the Bears on other boards.  Refuse to admit Caleb' improving, they've a legit HC and are ahead of schedule.  Cannot come to grips that the Bears finally appear to have the QB and HC figured out.  I think nearly all of us expected the Bears to be an improving team winning 7 or so games this season with the arrow trending up.  Caleb and Ben are just getting started.

Edited November 25, 2025 by gflore34

[Soul]

1 hour ago, gflore34 said:

Just hilarious reading about the Bears on other boards.  Refuse to admit Caleb' improving, they've a legit HC and are ahead of schedule.  Cannot come to grips that the Bears finally appear to have the QB and HC figured out.  I think nearly all of us expected the Bears to be an improving team winning 7 or so games this season with the arrow trending up.  Caleb and Ben are just getting started.

It’ll always be luck until the Bears win the SB.  That’s what forces enemies to acknowledge you’re good.

[NorthsideAvenger]

3 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Just hilarious reading about the Bears on other boards.  Refuse to admit Caleb' improving, they've a legit HC and are ahead of schedule.  Cannot come to grips that the Bears finally appear to have the QB and HC figured out.  I think nearly all of us expected the Bears to be an improving team winning 7 or so games this season with the arrow trending up.  Caleb and Ben are just getting started.

Not just a legit HC, but a legit coaching staff. Dennis Allen is doing more with less on the defensive side. 

[Geographyhater8888]

On 11/23/2025 at 8:31 PM, Derwood said:

Also, 8-3 with a negative point differential is wild

You could be the 2022 Vikings at 9-2 with a -8 PD. There’s been worse. Last 2 Bears teams to start 8-3 were at +106 and +102 in 2018 and 2012.

Edited November 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Banedon said:

I'd love to have the TD/INT relationship in those same games though.  Something tells me that other QB's that are under 60% are throwing a lot more picks and a lot less TD's in those same games.

Completion percentage has the smallest correlation with wins and losses of any efficiency metric for quarterbacks, 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

12 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

I remember hearing years ago that completion percentage is one of most predictive stats for interception rate.  Obviously even a strong correlation may not be causal and/or there could be outliers that are stable. An interesting case study though to that. 

Completion percentage is insignificantly correlated with qb performance and win probability when used in isolation. It’s no different than batting average. Mason Rudolph had a 23% edge in completion percentage on Sunday, the difference in the game was Caleb’s 8.03 ANY/A to Rudolph’s 4.06 ANY/A and Caleb’s 17 point edge in passer rating.

 

 

 

Edited November 25, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

18 hours ago, Wilson A2000 said:

The Bears have only the second negative point differential for any 8-win team in their first 11 games in NFL history. Love it lol!

They were 4-7 after the 11 game mark at +4 last year.

[WrigleyField 22]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Completion percentage is insignificantly correlated with qb performance and win probability when used in isolation. It’s no different than batting average. Mason Rudolph had a 23% edge in completion percentage on Sunday, the difference in the game was Caleb’s 8.03 ANY/A to Rudolph’s 4.06 ANY/A and Caleb’s 17 point edge in passer rating.

 

 

 

Do you have the link where this is from? 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Do you have the link where this is from? 

https://mfootballanalytics.com/2020/04/06/which-qb-stats-are-the-most-important/ 

[Soul]

Was going to post this yesterday but it’s interesting that Caleb’s cmp% is low, yet his yards per completion is 3rd in the league (12.1/cmp IIRC) for QBs with at least 200 completions.  Combine that with the low INTs.  He’s getting a lot of chunk plays without turning it over.  I’d love to see a higher cmp% but not if it means a bunch more short dump-offs.  We have a solid enough running game to just run the ball instead.

[Brian707]

16 hours ago, Banedon said:

 

Maybe Caleb did this when Rodgers spoke to him

Edited November 25, 2025 by Brian707

[We Got The Whole 9]

The Bears are like a modern NBA team. Try to get as many possessions as possible and don't turn the ball over and you are likely to score a lot of points. 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, Soul said:

Was going to post this yesterday but it’s interesting that Caleb’s cmp% is low, yet his yards per completion is 3rd in the league (12.1/cmp IIRC) for QBs with at least 200 completions.  Combine that with the low INTs.  He’s getting a lot of chunk plays without turning it over.  I’d love to see a higher cmp% but not if it means a bunch more short dump-offs.  We have a solid enough running game to just run the ball instead.

Yea. He's 3rd in ADOT.  Of course 3 of the top 5 have a comp% at 67% or greater. So it's certainly not the only reason. I suppose it's also possible depth only doesn't necessarily track diificutly or likely % of throws. 

 

But also one of those top 5 ADOT passers is Hurts with a 67% comp% who was a 61% thrower his second year (first full year) and has been 65% + every season since then, which is all Caleb probably has to be. 

 

If we're still discussing Caleb's accuracy in training camp next year I'll start worrying, but I'm looking forward to a full offseason after this year in his belt. 

Edited November 25, 2025 by WrigleyField 22

[jersey cubs fan]

On 11/23/2025 at 4:50 PM, minnesotacubsfan said:

TJ Watt was on him fast on that fumble. I'm not sure he could just "throw it away" either, he wasnt out of the pocket and an intentional grounding would have been a safety. given how bad the D was all day, a safety may have led to 9 points when the Steelers would have in unstoppable fashion marched down the field. Running the ball would have been a better play call but in the end, even the fumble (and TD) didnt kill the team. I just wish the D could stop molasses, because THAT would change the game 

 

 

I didn’t see this play live but saw the replay today and…, Caleb fd up royally. Watt wasn’t on him quickly at all. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I didn’t see this play live but saw the replay today and…, Caleb fd up royally. Watt wasn’t on him quickly at all. 

Really should not happen with any NFL QB

[BigbadB]

7 hours ago, jersey cubs fan said:

I didn’t see this play live but saw the replay today and…, Caleb fd up royally. Watt wasn’t on him quickly at all. 

Caleb probably just felt like he could shake him like he's been successfully doing more often than not. He got burned on that one, which is a learning experience. It shouldn't happen, but I forgive him since he didn't let a stupid play define him on this day.

[raw]

I'm pretty sure that was Caleb's longest time to throw play of the game. Wright held him off for over 3 seconds and then Caleb danced with him for another 2 before dropping the ball. Legitimately, the worst play of Caleb's career. Throwing it out of bounds for 2 points would have been a better option.

[minnesotacubsfan]

5 hours ago, raw said:

I'm pretty sure that was Caleb's longest time to throw play of the game. Wright held him off for over 3 seconds and then Caleb danced with him for another 2 before dropping the ball. Legitimately, the worst play of Caleb's career. Throwing it out of bounds for 2 points would have been a better option.

Throwing it away would have resulted in a 9 point swing because there was no way our D was going to stop the great Rudolf. 
 

safety

Free kick

Steelers march down for 7

 

thats pretty much exactly how it would have gone, and quite frankly I’m happy it was only 7, as bad as it looked

 

 

Edited November 26, 2025 by minnesotacubsfan