Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Any trade that evolves around extending someone to a $300M+ contract I'm just going to immediately chuck in the trash bin until this FO signals a shift in the wind. The only player they have even been rumored to be in on for over that number was Ohtani. The end of season rumors from insiders is that the Cubs never intended to extend Tucker and they punted the remainder of the offseason and deadline after the acquisition. Tucker was purely a move for Jed Hoyer to put a team in the playoffs and save his job. Mission accomplished.

With that out of the way, I am fully prepared for Shaw being the 3B, Suzuki going back to RF, and Ballesteros being the DH. There will be a battle for the bench role between Alcantara/Caissie and the loser gets traded in a package for an average inning eater type pitcher with 2-3 years of control. The big SP signing will be something like Brandon Woodruff on a multi-year opt out heavy contract (which I'm fine with). The rest of the money will go into the bench and bullpen.

Agree with this, except I think they keep both Alcantara and Caissie, especially for 2027.  In 2026 Alcantara is our PCA backup in CF in case of injury and Caissie if our corner OF injury backup plus a DH candidate in 2026 if Ballesteros gets hurt or he struggles.

I think the Cubs meet their SP needs this winter in FA, there's no reason not to.  Like you said, someone like Woodruff, King, Bieber etc.  We know from last winter they don't want to sign a TOR to a big longterm contract if they can avoid it.   They'll likely target all the good FA SP's and sign the one that comes in on the most sensible contract like they usually do.  Hopefully our rotation peaks later in the season than they did this year.

[CubinNY]

18 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Any trade that evolves around extending someone to a $300M+ contract I'm just going to immediately chuck in the trash bin until this FO signals a shift in the wind. The only player they have even been rumored to be in on for over that number was Ohtani. The end of season rumors from insiders is that the Cubs never intended to extend Tucker and they punted the remainder of the offseason and deadline after the acquisition. Tucker was purely a move for Jed Hoyer to put a team in the playoffs and save his job. Mission accomplished.

With that out of the way, I am fully prepared for Shaw being the 3B, Suzuki going back to RF, and Ballesteros being the DH. There will be a battle for the bench role between Alcantara/Caissie and the loser gets traded in a package for an average inning eater type pitcher with 2-3 years of control. The big SP signing will be something like Brandon Woodruff on a multi-year opt out heavy contract (which I'm fine with). The rest of the money will go into the bench and bullpen.

That sounds about right. Push for 90 wins and complete for the division (maybe). The Ricketts get to split around 80 million. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Anybody interested in Okamoto, the 3B who is being posted?

[Bertz]

 

I didnt realize this.  And there's not a ton of prospects to add either, I'm counting maybe 5 that you could even consider?

Get ready for absolutely insane levels of reliever waiver wire roulette.

[ILMindState]

2 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Anybody interested in Okamoto, the 3B who is being posted?

Maybe if you could trade Shaw for a TOR guy or closer

[Hot Sauce]

3 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Anybody interested in Okamoto, the 3B who is being posted?

To replace Turner, yes. To replace Shaw, no.

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Okamoto has an alarming K rate for a guy in NPB, I'd stay far away.

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Okamoto has an alarming K rate for a guy in NPB, I'd stay far away.

Does he? Or is it the other 3rd baseman being posted? 
I just looked up his numbers. In 314 PA he struck out 36 times and walked 34 times. His K rate is not alarming. He still might not be what they want, but not because he strikes out too much. 

Edited October 22, 2025 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

Quote

 

Kazuma Okamoto

Okamoto has been one of NPB's most productive power hitters since 2018, and until 2024 had had six straight seasons of clubbing 30 or more home runs, including a 2023 campaign in which he hit 41 of them while slashing .278/.374/.584, good for a 178 wRC+. It was at that point that public reports surfaced about MLB teams scouting Okamoto. His 2024 campaign wasn't as stellar, as he "merely" slashed .280/.362/.501 but posted a career-best 15% strikeout rate. After the 2024 MLB season, rumors that Okamoto would be posted during the offseason grew within baseball but they weren't uniform.

Okamoto's most resonant and interesting skill is his extreme ability to pull the baseball. His spray chart looks like Isaac Paredes', with all kinds of fly balls peppering the left field foul pole. Some teams' regression models seem to have found that hitters with high rates of pulled fly balls are more stable performers, and it's likely that teams that believe this will be the ones most hot after Okamoto if indeed he comes over to MLB.

His swing has a little more movement and noise, but it's similar to Tommy Pham's. His front foot tends to land open, enabling him to pull the baseball in the air a ton. He can cover the heart of the zone from east to west, but he isn't a barrel control savant or anything like that; Okamoto is clearly a power-over-hit guy. His hands are very strong, capable of putting a charge into the ball even when he doesn't square it up.

But whether Okamoto can actually perform like he has against big league fastballs is up for debate. His spray chart against fastballs has been more balanced to all fields and less pull-heavy. When you limit his opponents' sample to fastballs 94 mph and above (only about 200 pitches across all of 2024; the average NPB fastball was 90-91 mph), his numbers fall off a cliff. As a likely first base-only big league defender (he has seen time at third base and in the outfield each of the last couple years, but has overwhelmingly played first base), Okamoto has very little margin for error on offense. He's a potential option for teams in need of a power bat, but this evaluation is worried enough about his fastball issues to put him comfortably south of the average starting first baseman in MLB.

 

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report.  The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow.  We know the Cubs like that profile.

I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report.  The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow.  We know the Cubs like that profile.

I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

 If he is a bench bat I doubt the Cubs are interested in him. My guess is he will get too much money to be a bench bat on the Cubs. 

Edited October 22, 2025 by Rcal10

[I owned a Suzuki]

5 hours ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Anybody interested in Okamoto, the 3B who is being posted?

Looks like 3B is not really a thing. Everything I've read leads me to a hard no. Even as a Justin Turner replacement, I think the Cubs can find a cheaper just as good option.

[mk49]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report.  The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow.  We know the Cubs like that profile.

I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

I checked his stats in Japan, and compared to Seiya's numbers, when he was in Japan.  Seems like Okamoto hit more HR's than Seiya did, but Seiya had higher BA and OPS.  I think his contract will be higher than Seiya's, and nobody pays that kind money for the Justin Turner role.

[mk49]

The Cubs should give Shaw at least one more year.  I don't think the team will trade him this winter, unless something huge (like Skubal) comes up.  At least, he's good defensively, and he should improve, hopefully quite a bit.

[Bertz]

I don't understand why people talk about Shaw's bat like he's Austin Hedges or something 

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I don't understand why people talk about Shaw's bat like he's Austin Hedges or something 

Me neither, he's hit well at every level, I'd like him to get another chance.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Me neither, he's hit well at every level, I'd like him to get another chance.

I think Shaw will be a fine hitter and solid 3rd baseman. But he wouldn’t stop me from wanting Bregman or Bichette to play 3rd next year if Shaw (+) can  be used in a deal for a TOR or at least very solid MOR controlled young”ish” pitcher. If not, I am perfectly fine with him at 3rd next year and do expect a + bat from him. I could see a 20/20 guy out of him. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 hours ago, Bertz said:

Eric Longenhagen's scouting report.  The bold very much made me raise an eyebrow.  We know the Cubs like that profile.

I think more or less what Hot Sauce said, if you're looking for him to be deluxe Justin Turner let's talk, but he does not sound like a starting caliber bat.

 

There seems to be some odd disagreement about something that should be pretty factual re: Okamoto handling velocity: 

Also worth noting Longenhagen's report appears to be pre-2025.

[Post Count Padder]

Is there any reason to keep Jon Long out of the Justin Turner replacement conversation other than he hasn't played above AAA yet?

[squally1313]

19 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Is there any reason to keep Jon Long out of the Justin Turner replacement conversation other than he hasn't played above AAA yet?

I think it's likely because getting 191 PAs, which would be almost exclusively against LHPs, is probably worse for his development as a potential full time starter than getting 600+ PAs in AAA. Veteran guys for that role just aren't that expensive, and it's pretty unlikely that the salary difference between a different version of Justin Turner or even someone like Goldschmidt and Long is going to make or break other moves. 

[Stratos]

On 10/21/2025 at 5:11 PM, Bertz said:

My guess would be that one of Alcantara/Long is on next year's bench, and the other is not in the org next year because of trade.

Put another way I expect the bench next year to be

Amaya / Alcantara / Veteran RHH 1B (Paul Goldschmidt type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type)

or

Amaya / Long / Veteran RHH OF (Rob Refsnyder type) / Veteran Infielder (Jon Berti type)

I think it will be the 1st list.  Alcantara can play any OF position and vs LHP he can possibly hit as a RHB for Ballesteros/Caissie at DH or RF.  Long could be that platoon RHB at DH but he lacks positional versatility, and he's also hit RHP better than LHP in the minors the last 2 seasons (that may change).

Cubs seem to like at least 1 veteran on the bench which may negate Long's chances as the 1B RHB, and it's difficult for rookies to succeed at hitting while being the short end of a platoon with limited PA's.

The veteran INF backup will hopefully be able to hit LHB like Castro since Shaw/Nico/Dansby are all RHB.  I'd be fine bringing back Castro but he likely wants more PA's wherever he signs.

[Stratos]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think it's likely because getting 191 PAs, which would be almost exclusively against LHPs, is probably worse for his development as a potential full time starter than getting 600+ PAs in AAA. Veteran guys for that role just aren't that expensive, and it's pretty unlikely that the salary difference between a different version of Justin Turner or even someone like Goldschmidt and Long is going to make or break other moves. 

Other thing is if Long stunk as the bench RHB there's no backup.  They'd probably sign some Patrick Wisdom/Schwindel type and keep them in AAA, which isn't terrible but as good as signing a guy like Goldschmidt and at least Long is the backup for him.  

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

I didnt realize this.  And there's not a ton of prospects to add either, I'm counting maybe 5 that you could even consider?

Get ready for absolutely insane levels of reliever waiver wire roulette.

Yeah, they have to replace almost the entire bullpen and every late-inning arm minus Palencia.  Jed will be busy.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

 

There seems to be some odd disagreement about something that should be pretty factual re: Okamoto handling velocity: 

Also worth noting Longenhagen's report appears to be pre-2025.

Yeah I read a couple of Longenhagen reports on the various Asia imports and they all sounded like they were written ahead of 2025.  It may have been a one year blip.  Eric did mention it was only 200ish pitches, so like the equivalent of 50-70 at bats?

[Stratos]

21 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Me neither, he's hit well at every level, I'd like him to get another chance.

I like Shaw, he had major hoops to jump through his rookie year with the major stance/swing changes they made with him (with likely more to come).  Much bigger changes than PCA and Amaya made in 2024.  IMO it was a bit unfair they had Shaw adjust to those major changes at the MLB level as a rookie.  I think he did fine, especially considering the short Spring Training he had and early season start in Japan.

Struggling against those beast pitchers the Cubs saw in the playoffs isn't surprising or alarming.  He was a really good hitter in college and the minors and showed extended flashes in 2025 so i think he's a work-in-progress but medium and longterm will be a good player and has the fielding floor to be worth the early struggles.

Edited October 23, 2025 by Stratos

[Bertz]

30 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I think it will be the 1st list.  Alcantara can play any OF position and vs LHP he can possibly hit as a RHB for Ballesteros/Caissie at DH or RF.  Long could be that platoon RHB at DH but he lacks positional versatility, and he's also hit RHP better than LHP in the minors the last 2 seasons (that may change).

Cubs seem to like at least 1 veteran on the bench which may negate Long's chances as the 1B RHB, and it's difficult for rookies to succeed at hitting while being the short end of a platoon with limited PA's.

The veteran INF backup will hopefully be able to hit LHB like Castro since Shaw/Nico/Dansby are all RHB.  I'd be fine bringing back Castro but he likely wants more PA's wherever he signs.

It's a bit tough.  Because I agree I think Alcantara is very good fit to the bench and compliments the other options well.  But on the other hand there's a ton of quality veteran platoon outfielders on this market but at 1B Goldschmidt is basically the only righty who's even vaguely attractive.  I wonder if supply/demand ends up pushing Long onto the roster..