Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Bertz]

35 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Far cry from the farm Theo had. You’re more knowledgeable on this subject than I am so does this at all open the door for perhaps paying a premium price for maybe Bo Bichette to play third base while trading Nico? Jed already tried this with Bergman and they’re in a more favorable spot with the LT.
 

If they’re trying to pick a middle ground between contention and auditioning the young assets then Rojas would be a nice trade chip if we’re stuck waiting on his development and the alternative is a utility infielder with limited upside, unless they plan on extending Nico.. 

I don’t think it's a huge worry.  Nico aside everyone slated to hit FA next winter is making within a stone's throw of market rates anyway.  So yeah ~40% of the roster is turning over, but there's going to be $120M+ plus to spend on backfills.  And the team has a talented young nucleus to act as a cheap spine for the roster.

If anything there's some opportunity to raise the ceiling of the team.  Turn five $20M a year players into three $30M a year players and two kids making the league minimum.  

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I don’t think it's a huge worry.  Nico aside everyone slated to hit FA next winter is making within a stone's throw of market rates anyway.  So yeah ~40% of the roster is turning over, but there's going to be $120M+ plus to spend on backfills.  And the team has a talented young nucleus to act as a cheap spine for the roster.

If anything there's some opportunity to raise the ceiling of the team.  Turn five $20M a year players into three $30M a year players and two kids making the league minimum.  

The ‘27 team could look completely different than the team we saw last year. Good chance Happ, Turner, Suzuki, Hoerner, Kelly, Tucker, Rea, Imanaga, Boyd, Tailon and most of the pen will be different. Which is a good reason to really be all in for the ‘26 season. As Bertz said, all those guys coming off the payroll might not be a bad thing. Maybe they fill some spots with young system talent a few cia trades and spend on some high end FA. Different doesn’t have to be bad. 

[chibears55]

14 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

If that’s what we call a down a year then I’ll take it.

Didn't say he's had a down year, I said his numbers were down from previous two years eventhough he had a career high in HRs.

Avg.  285  283  245

OBP  357  366  326

SLg   485  482  478

OPS  842  848  804

Career high HR 32, previously 21

 

Basically in response to poster about his Slg but more specifically his power, was just saying that I'd be surprise if he hit 30 HRs again, and after next season they should be able to fill his void.

[chibears55]

9 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

The ‘27 team could look completely different than the team we saw last year. Good chance Happ, Turner, Suzuki, Hoerner, Kelly, Tucker, Rea, Imanaga, Boyd, Tailon and most of the pen will be different. Which is a good reason to really be all in for the ‘26 season. As Bertz said, all those guys coming off the payroll might not be a bad thing. Maybe they fill some spots with young system talent a few cia trades and spend on some high end FA. Different doesn’t have to be bad. 

Why I would love to see them go hard after pitching this offseason, not just add for 2026 but going forward too.

They get a capable bat to replace Tucker ( if he doesn't return), to either DH or play RF , the offense can be respectable enough to win games with solid pitching in rotation and bullpen. 

Then 2026 offseason after they figure out the CBA, they can just focus on replacing Happ, Suzuki, maybe Hoerner, etc. 

Maybe we'll have a better idea about a couple of their top 10 prospects by then.

 

 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Didn't say he's had a down year, I said his numbers were down from previous two years eventhough he had a career high in HRs.

Avg.  285  283  245

OBP  357  366  326

SLg   485  482  478

OPS  842  848  804

Career high HR 32, previously 21

 

Basically in response to poster about his Slg but more specifically his power, was just saying that I'd be surprise if he hit 30 HRs again, and after next season they should be able to fill his void.

His slugging was pretty much stable with a batting average down about 40 points from his previous years. As Jason pointed out he hit the ball much harder this year. I don’t get your line of thinking that he won’t hit 30 homers again. If he gets his average back up to the .280 mark his slugging would probably be .500 and he would most likely hit over 30 homers. Why would it surprise you if he didn’t? Do you think knee will only hit .240 again? 

[Jason Ross]

10 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Didn't say he's had a down year, I said his numbers were down from previous two years eventhough he had a career high in HRs.

Avg.  285  283  245

OBP  357  366  326

SLg   485  482  478

OPS  842  848  804

Career high HR 32, previously 21

 

Basically in response to poster about his Slg but more specifically his power, was just saying that I'd be surprise if he hit 30 HRs again, and after next season they should be able to fill his void.

His BABIP was .40 points lower than his career numbers yet all of his batted ball data was better. His xwOBA was also his career high. All of his predictive data suggests not only was this a good year, but his best season in Major League Baseball. 

His ISO was .30 points higher - not some asinine rise, either. 

Whether he hits 28 or 32 home runs next year,. there is nothing in his profile to suggest any downturn in power production coming like you are suggesting here. It wouldn't be a surprise at all for him to hit 30 home runs again. 

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Didn't say he's had a down year, I said his numbers were down from previous two years eventhough he had a career high in HRs.

Avg.  285  283  245

OBP  357  366  326

SLg   485  482  478

OPS  842  848  804

Career high HR 32, previously 21

 

Basically in response to poster about his Slg but more specifically his power, was just saying that I'd be surprise if he hit 30 HRs again, and after next season they should be able to fill his void.

You can replace him, of the 2026-27 free agent class he’s the best available outfielder in my opinion and it’s a stretch to assume Cassie or any in house talent will be as good or better. This isn’t Theos farm system. So yes, if they void or plan on voiding his contract and the plan is having 6/9 starting positions players on cost controlled rookie contracts then either extending Tucker or proactively signing, Bo Bichette to offset his loss for example is an unlikely option but one I’d prefer. Much like what Jed tried doing with Bregman and He’ll only be 28 if available.

Edited October 20, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

You can replace him, of the 2026-27 free agent class he’s the best available outfielder in my opinion and it’s a stretch to assume Cassie or any in house talent will be as good or better. This isn’t Theos farm system. So yes, if they void or plan on voiding his contract and the plan is having 6/9 starting positions players on cost controlled rookie contracts then either extending Tucker or proactively signing, Bo Bichette to offset his loss for example is an unlikely option but one I’d prefer. Much like what Jed tried doing with Bregman and He’ll only be 28 if available.

As far as Suzuki goes, I just have a feeling that after 2026, Cubs, if they don't trade him at deadline, they will let him go over offering him ARB for 2027 and at age 32, he may want to go back and finish playing in Japan for a couple seasons.

 

 

As of now, as far as position players goes, theyll have team control of for 2027.

Amaya, Ballesteros, Busch, Shaw, PCA

Swanson 28 mil and Kelly 1.5 mil are the only position players under contract for 2027, along with Boyd 2 mil as the only other player under contract. So as of now, theyll need  2B, LF, and RF for 2027

They can potentially spend more on ARB players, projected now at 139 mil, than contracted players for 2027..

I think it very possible as of now, that they extend Hoerner, hope Caissie an answer for an OF spot, and look to add from outside for the other OF spot.

2026 if they don't make changes this offseason, will be Shaw make or break year for 3B and also for finding out if Ballesteros and Caissie are future pieces or at least be given the opportunity to play everyday in 2027.

[mul21]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

As far as Suzuki goes, I just have a feeling that after 2026, Cubs, if they don't trade him at deadline, they will let him go over offering him ARB for 2027 and at age 32, he may want to go back and finish playing in Japan for a couple seasons.

 

 

As of now, as far as position players goes, theyll have team control of for 2027.

Amaya, Ballesteros, Busch, Shaw, PCA

Swanson 28 mil and Kelly 1.5 mil are the only position players under contract for 2027, along with Boyd 2 mil as the only other player under contract. So as of now, theyll need  2B, LF, and RF for 2027

They can potentially spend more on ARB players, projected now at 139 mil, than contracted players for 2027..

I think it very possible as of now, that they extend Hoerner, hope Caissie an answer for an OF spot, and look to add from outside for the other OF spot.

2026 if they don't make changes this offseason, will be Shaw make or break year for 3B and also for finding out if Ballesteros and Caissie are future pieces or at least be given the opportunity to play everyday in 2027.

What are you talking about?  He came over as an unrestricted free agent and will be again after his contract with the Cubs is up.

[Hunter]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What are you talking about?  He came over as an unrestricted free agent and will be again after his contract with the Cubs is up.

Maybe he meant a QO.

 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Hunter said:

Maybe he meant a QO.

 

Says ARB on here, baseball reference 🤷‍♂️

Edited October 20, 2025 by chibears55

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Says ARB on here, baseball reference 🤷‍♂️

He's a true free agent.  Those numbers on baseball reference are probably automated based on service time, but any Japanese/Korean player who comes over and makes decent money gets a clause that says they're a FA when their contract is up.

[Cuzi]

46 minutes ago, Bertz said:

He's a true free agent.  Those numbers on baseball reference are probably automated based on service time, but any Japanese/Korean player who comes over and makes decent money gets a clause that says they're a FA when their contract is up.

25/6 rule. Any player coming from a league recognized professionally by MLB that is at least 25 years old with 6 years of experience in that league is treated like a FA and not subject to international pool rules.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

25/6 rule. Any player coming from a league recognized professionally by MLB that is at least 25 years old with 6 years of experience in that league is treated like a FA and not subject to international pool rules.

That's helpful, thanks!  I've seen some role players come over and be arb eligible after their deal expired, so I knew it wasn't just age.  The 6 years of service requirement explains the gap though.

[Dfan25]

World Series hasn’t even started and there is already trade speculation on Skubal and Peralta .

 

I totally expect the Brewers to trade Peralta and Miz will be a top 3 cy young finish with Ashby as a really good 2 , Patrick a very good 3 and Henderson a really solid backend guy 

Edited October 20, 2025 by Dfan25

[Jason Ross]

With the NPB guys coming over, Lance Brozdowski did a rundown on a lot of the high profile guys coming over. After looking at the Imai profile, I think the Cubs are going to like him a lot. He's got a lot of the things the Cubs enjoy. I'm not 100% sure they will go with him, but I think he'd be a guy the front office likes. If you told me he was at the top of their wishlist, I wouldn't be shocked. 

 

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

With the NPB guys coming over, Lance Brozdowski did a rundown on a lot of the high profile guys coming over. After looking at the Imai profile, I think the Cubs are going to like him a lot. He's got a lot of the things the Cubs enjoy. I'm not 100% sure they will go with him, but I think he'd be a guy the front office likes. If you told me he was at the top of their wishlist, I wouldn't be shocked. 

 

Also not to he one of those "every Japanese guy goes to the Dodgers" types but it is nice that neither the Dodgers or Yankees seem set to chase after 9 figure contract SPs this winter.

Cubs were seemingly in on Yamamoto when he was gonna get ~$200M, and noped out when it skyrocketed from there.  Unless the Mets are particularly enamored with Imai his contract probably stays more reasonable.

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Also not to he one of those "every Japanese guy goes to the Dodgers" types but it is nice that neither the Dodgers or Yankees seem set to chase after 9 figure contract SPs this winter.

Cubs were seemingly in on Yamamoto when he was gonna get ~$200M, and noped out when it skyrocketed from there.  Unless the Mets are particularly enamored with Imai his contract probably stays more reasonable.

Lance's guess was in the 7/$140m range. Which feels high for a pitcher and the Cubs, but with how arms are aging, and his age, I think that feels like a contract they could conceivably stretch to and it not be insane for the team. No compensation attached as well.

[Stratos]

On 10/18/2025 at 9:55 PM, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs already tried to change him into 2025. I don't think the answer is velo. The Cubs dropped his arm slot, my guess, is to add to the sweeper. Didn't work, it left his fastball (high ride and needed to get to the top 3rd) sit more middle third. 

I think Shota is what Shota is. That's okay. His fastball at his velo plays top third, But it dropped in location due to a drop of arm slot. 

Good catch on the arm angle.  Could be a combo of both, who knows.   Cubs have been excellent at evaluating pitching talent so I trust the Cubs to figure out if it's fixable and if they should bring back Shota.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

World Series hasn’t even started and there is already trade speculation on Skubal and Peralta .

 

I totally expect the Brewers to trade Peralta and Miz will be a top 3 cy young finish with Ashby as a really good 2 , Patrick a very good 3 and Henderson a really solid backend guy 

Peralta will only make 8m next year so he could bring the Brewers a nice package.

[mk49]

7 hours ago, Bertz said:

Also not to he one of those "every Japanese guy goes to the Dodgers" types but it is nice that neither the Dodgers or Yankees seem set to chase after 9 figure contract SPs this winter.

Cubs were seemingly in on Yamamoto when he was gonna get ~$200M, and noped out when it skyrocketed from there.  Unless the Mets are particularly enamored with Imai his contract probably stays more reasonable.

I have never seen Imai pitches, but he's probably too expensive for the Cubs, although he won't make anywhere close to Yamamoto money.  

[Geographyhater8888]

18 hours ago, chibears55 said:

As far as Suzuki goes, I just have a feeling that after 2026, Cubs, if they don't trade him at deadline, they will let him go over offering him ARB for 2027 and at age 32, he may want to go back and finish playing in Japan for a couple seasons.

 

 

As of now, as far as position players goes, theyll have team control of for 2027.

Amaya, Ballesteros, Busch, Shaw, PCA

Swanson 28 mil and Kelly 1.5 mil are the only position players under contract for 2027, along with Boyd 2 mil as the only other player under contract. So as of now, theyll need  2B, LF, and RF for 2027

They can potentially spend more on ARB players, projected now at 139 mil, than contracted players for 2027..

I think it very possible as of now, that they extend Hoerner, hope Caissie an answer for an OF spot, and look to add from outside for the other OF spot.

2026 if they don't make changes this offseason, will be Shaw make or break year for 3B and also for finding out if Ballesteros and Caissie are future pieces or at least be given the opportunity to play everyday in 2027.

Even with minimal changes in the offseason this team will likely still be in the playoff mix. A full season of Horton, Shaw and Steele returning are all positive reinforcements. You really think they’d have another sell off at the deadline unless they’re 5 games back of the 6th wild card spot? Unless something unpredictable happens Cassie will have a lineup spot waiting for him and will have his opportunity assuming Tucker walks.

 

Edited October 21, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Outshined_One]

12 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Lance's guess was in the 7/$140m range. Which feels high for a pitcher and the Cubs, but with how arms are aging, and his age, I think that feels like a contract they could conceivably stretch to and it not be insane for the team. No compensation attached as well.

The "no compensation attached" angle makes me think the Cubs will take a harder run at him than we might expect. They've been stingy with draft capital under Jed, and Imai checks a lot of boxes the rotation will need going into next season.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Outshined_One said:

The "no compensation attached" angle makes me think the Cubs will take a harder run at him than we might expect. They've been stingy with draft capital under Jed, and Imai checks a lot of boxes the rotation will need going into next season.

He even checks the boxes of things the Cubs tend to target. He's a pronator, not a supinator, he has a low-arm angle slot (look at how the Cubs lowered the arm angles of many of their SP's last year), and he's got real funk - he throws a reverse slider. The Cubs are not afraid of pitches that stuff+ models don't like (they went heavy on mediocre and bad 4 seam shapes last year) and they always love a little funk. 

I really think Imai hits a lot of the internal boxes. And what it would allow them to do is to spend their 2nd round compensation elsewhere if they wanted to. Tucker is going to net the team a 2nd round pick and they have been more willing to spend on comp players when they already were getting a pick back. So I think if you want a big offseason, Imai might be the pathway. 

[Bertz]

7 hours ago, mk49 said:

I have never seen Imai pitches, but he's probably too expensive for the Cubs, although he won't make anywhere close to Yamamoto money.  

Jed's never going to turn into Dave Dombrowski, but you can't just assume he'll operate the exact same way every single offseason.  

This is pretty easily the best team he's had heading into an offseason before.  On tops of that he has more money to play with than he has since the Swanson/Bellinger/Taillon winter and more young talent on hand than he's had ever.  More $$ and fewer holes to fill allows you to operate differently.  We saw this last winter with the Tucker trade and also the near signing of Tanner Scott.

I'm not going to put a stake in the ground for a specific guy, but this is not going to be a winter where the team just adds a $15M starting pitcher and a bunch of $5M relievers.  Team context matters a ton.