Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[731.4life]

The offseason is tricky for the Cubs. I think most people are wanting to think of plans to help the Cubs in 2026. While that is true, I do believe the plans for 2026 are going to be scratched, and the plans for 2027 will be more important than 2026.

It's no secret we're going into a lockout. This postseason is a prime example of why I do believe the salary cap is coming into MLB. Some may hate it, some may like it, I can see both sides of the story. But if you look at what's going on with the Dodgers, I'm okay with a salary cap coming into baseball. 

It's Shohei's contract that helps free up for pay for Teoscar Hernandez, giving him a deferral contract that will end at 2039, Shohei's contract helps free up money for Blake Snell, giving him a deferral contract that will expire in 2046. Blake Snell will be 53 years old when that contract expires. Will Smith's contract expires in 2043, and he'll be 48.

So you translate that to Blake Snell going 8 innings the other night against Milwaukee. Teoscar Hernandez hitting a homerun last night. For all of that, I am expecting the Cubs to be more proactive on what it will be at after the lockout. So, I don't expect much for 2026 other than standing pat and landing Happ, Suzuki, and I believe Tallion's contract to expire.

Not sure who the Brewers owner is, but I don't blame him for being upset. 97 win team that was #1 seed in the NL, only to probably lose in 4-5 games against the Dodgers. MLB needs to make sure the World Series goes at least 6 games. They can't go 5 games like they did last year, and make the World Series another disappoint. It's bad for the sport that's gaining momentum that's fighting with the NFL and College Football for TV ratings for their most important month/time of the year, which is October.

That's more of a thought than anything.

On field, team needs an ace, I'll call Minnesota about Joe Ryan and I'll call Miami about Alcantara/Cabrera. I'll also call Atlanta and see about Austin Riley. Contract is more favorable than Bregman. Both haven't been the healthiest players in the last 1-2 years. Riley's is more of bad luck (hit by pitches as an example). I like Bregman, too. But Riley is also a 30-35 (maybe 40) home run guy that can hit 3rd/4th behind Busch, if he plays everyday. Bregman might be a little bit better than Riley, but he's 3 years older than Riley, but if Bregman is looking for $35+ Million (at least), is he $13 Million dollars better than Riley, I'm not so sure. 

[Cuzi]

I dont think there is any chance that there is going to be a salary cap in MLB. That wont come without a salary floor. The players dont want a cap and the owners dont want a floor.

There's going to be an argument for awhile and probably end up with something that changes rules on deferred payments or something.

Edited October 15, 2025 by Cuzi

[Post Count Padder]

This offseason will be interesting. The offense basically broke in the second half but almost everyone is locked in to run it back. I'm not expecting an overhaul but I wonder if they try to convince Tucker to take the Bregman deal (opt out after one year). Or they let Caissie and Alcantara battle it out for RF, sign Bregman and trade Shaw for pitching. I kinda doubt they go that route, though.

The rotation is: Boyd, Taillon, Shota (if he stays), Horton, Rea, Assad until Steele comes back. But the pen is basically wide open. I think only Hodge and Palencia and the Iowa guys are under contract (I'd love Kittredge back but they're not exercising a $9 million option).

They need a big bat, another good SP and some pen arms. But I'm worried they'll play it safe and do little of note.

Another thing to consider is there are a lot of R5 eligible players in the system. Some space is gonna be needed for a few.

[Rcal10]

54 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I dont think there is any chance that there is going to be a salary cap in MLB. That wont come without a salary floor. The players dont want a cap and the owners dont want a floor.

There's going to be an argument for awhile and probably end up with something that changes rules on deferred payments or something.

But players may also like deferred payment options. So what do the players get for them changing it. By changing it that could make less teams bid on a guy. Dodgers added to Ohtani because of his huge deferral. Had that not been an option they don’t get Snell, Hernandez, Scott, etc, etc, etc. again, players lose in that scenerio. The harsher you penalize the teams with money or limit their ability to move money around the worse you make the pay for the players. What do the players get if MLB changes rules on deferred money? FA after 4 years? 

[chibears55]

Funny how the 2026 offseason needs is going to be the same as 2025 was.

A big bat, SP, and a closer.

I'd be a little surprise if they trade any of the returning bats, so that leaves RF or DH to add another bat for the regular lineup.

I do hope Hoyer puts a lot of focus on pitching this offseason and basically builds around Horton for the now and future. Be awesome if they can add Cease, Ryan, or someone in their category. 

I think having your top 3 starters being a big addition like I mentioned, to go with Horton and eventually a healthy Steele, will go a long way next season.

Im probably in the minority with this but I would be good if Imanaga declines his option and moves on if it meant his money could be put towards a more quality SP in his place. They have depth if he goes, with Taillon, Boyd, Assad, Brown,etc., and eventually Wiggins later in season. 

 

 

[Post Count Padder]

Unsure where to put this but Keegan Thompson elected free agency. I had high hopes for him a few years ago. He gave us some good innings. Farewell.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Funny how the 2026 offseason needs is going to be the same as 2025 was.

A big bat, SP, and a closer.

I'd be a little surprise if they trade any of the returning bats, so that leaves RF or DH to add another bat for the regular lineup.

I do hope Hoyer puts a lot of focus on pitching this offseason and basically builds around Horton for the now and future. Be awesome if they can add Cease, Ryan, or someone in their category. 

I think having your top 3 starters being a big addition like I mentioned, to go with Horton and eventually a healthy Steele, will go a long way next season.

Im probably in the minority with this but I would be good if Imanaga declines his option and moves on if it meant his money could be put towards a more quality SP in his place. They have depth if he goes, with Taillon, Boyd, Assad, Brown,etc., and eventually Wiggins later in season. 

 

 

If they are going to spend Imanaga money on a starting pitcher I agree with you. Love to add one as a FA and another in a trade. So if Cassie+ can get Ryan, Cabrera, Alcantara, Gore or even Lopez (twins), that would be a trade I wouldn’t mind seeing. Then sign either Cease, Gallen, Valdez, Sanchez or even King. I think there is still enough money to resign Tucker if they did this. If they need more money they can deal Tailon. Rotation would still be FA pitcher, young controlled pitcher via trade, Horton, Boyd and Rea/Assad/Brown/Wicks as 5th starters until Steele came back. They would also have Wiggins in the minors. If they don’t go after Tucker there is always guys like Bichette, Bellinger, Schwarber, Alonso(if he will DH), Bregman. If they went Bregman or Bichette I would still keep Shaw around. He can be a utility guy and get 2 games a week. 

[Derwood]

We're just assuming Skubal is going to the Dodgers or Yankees, yeah?

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, Derwood said:

We're just assuming Skubal is going to the Dodgers or Yankees, yeah?

I am assuming we have no chance at Skubal or Skenes. 

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Is 2026 Skubal's last year before FA? Wonder what the Tigers are gonna do. He's gonna win his second Cy Young and was great in the playoffs. Value can only come down.

[Andy]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

I dont think there is any chance that there is going to be a salary cap in MLB. That wont come without a salary floor. The players dont want a cap and the owners dont want a floor.

There's going to be an argument for awhile and probably end up with something that changes rules on deferred payments or something.

Just to clarify, the owners are fine with a floor as long as the cap is ludicrously low. They proposed a cap/floor in the last CBA negotiations, but the cap was $180M (lower than 13 teams currently spend) and the floor was $100M (only 5 went below that this year). It was a completely unserious offer and no amount of negotiating would've gotten it to a reasonable place.

[Derwood]

25 minutes ago, Tangled Up in Plaid said:

Is 2026 Skubal's last year before FA? Wonder what the Tigers are gonna do. He's gonna win his second Cy Young and was great in the playoffs. Value can only come down.

I misread his contract page. He's arb eligible in 2026 and will be a FA in 2027

[Stratos]

21 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

As long as the Cubs don't expect any lingering injury issues for Amaya, I still think the right move is to trade Kelly.  Amaya can start a majority of games, with Mcguire serving as an occasional backup.  Ballasteros spends most of his time at DH, but also gets worked in at Catcher on a semi-regular basis.  I think Ballasteros needs to get a chance to catch, at least occasionally, and he isn't going to get that if both Amaya and Kelly are on the roster.  And if he shows that he really can't handle it, Mcguire is a serviceable enough backup.

We got 4.0 WAR out of catcher last year after negative WAR the year before.  By far the biggest positional improvement on the team.  I don't expect the same year from Kelly but I would change as little as possible there and would rather have depth anyways.  McGuire is likely going to sign elsewhere in FA anyways based on playing time alone even if we wanted him back so Mo can be the 3rd catching option while likely DH'ing most games.

[Stratos]

Anyone have a link the Jed's presser today?

edit:

https://www.mlb.com/video/live-jed-hoyer-media-availability-192771

Edited October 16, 2025 by Stratos

[Stratos]

In order to make SP go longer in games, especially in the playoffs, i'd like to them reduce the max # of pitchers a team can carry.  They also need to limit off-days in playoffs to travel days.

[Papa Cub]

On 10/12/2025 at 11:30 PM, Derwood said:

Since Kyle had a less-than-ideal season, would he want/be willing to do a 2-3 year deal with opt outs in order to bounce back and maybe cash in a few years down the line?

That is a good idea- he needs to build some capital based on the season he had. Good post 

[I owned a Suzuki]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

In order to make SP go longer in games, especially in the playoffs, i'd like to them reduce the max # of pitchers a team can carry.  They also need to limit off-days in playoffs to travel days.

I dont mind the current playoff system. But I would start the Division series on Friday and only have 1 off day in the Division series. 

That would make winning the WC in 2 games a bigger priority, give the teams with a bye a bigger edge and prioritize starting pitching more

[CDM0481]

Make the format similar to NBA. 

Single elimination:

-2nd wildcard hosts 3rd wildcard.

-Winner plays at 1st Wildcard

-Winner of that plays #1 seed, 2nd and 3rd seeds play in division series

This format deservably rewards each respective division winner, and gives the top wildcard team a decisive advantage to advance. 

 

[Stratos]

On 10/13/2025 at 12:24 AM, Rcal10 said:

You think there rotation as is would be great? I absolutely do not agree. At best, with a healthy Steele it would be fine. But no idea if Steele will be healthy. Assad filling in for him is less than ideal. This rotation has maybe 3 #3’s and a possible #2 starter if Horton progresses. And I am not sure Tailon should be counted on as a 3. When Steele comes back he can be anything between a #2 to 4th starter. Assad is a 5. Again, not bad, but not great. They need a TOR starter. 

2025 the Cubs SP were 8th in ERA but 14th in xERA, 23rd in xFIP, and 17th in WAR.  There's no doubt the winds of Wrigley and the Cubs elite defense has made Cubs pitchers overperform.   The pen as well by that logic.  The rotation was likely average to below-average.  Steele is an unknown, Taillon/Imanaga/Boyd/Rea will be a year older with more possible velo drops, but a full year from a more experienced Horton.  Agree they could use a good SP.

[CDM0481]

Wouldn’t mind seeing them run with a 6 man rotation when Steele returns… Horton, Boyd, JT, Imonaga (if back), or Rea, Ben Brown, and Steele.
 

Ben Brown has upside and has shown there’s times where he can dominate. I know it’s been mostly bad thus far with him, but I think there’s something there with this guy.

[Rcal10]

58 minutes ago, CDM0481 said:

Wouldn’t mind seeing them run with a 6 man rotation when Steele returns… Horton, Boyd, JT, Imonaga (if back), or Rea, Ben Brown, and Steele.
 

Ben Brown has upside and has shown there’s times where he can dominate. I know it’s been mostly bad thus far with him, but I think there’s something there with this guy.

They need another good pitcher. Those guys you are mentioning are #3 starters, at best. Some are #5’a. As Stratos said, their results were better because of great defense. 

 

 

 

 

[Geographyhater8888]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

They need another good pitcher. Those guys you are mentioning are #3 starters, at best. Some are #5’a. As Stratos said, their results were better because of great defense. 

 

 

 

 

 

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I am assuming we have no chance at Skubal or Skenes. 

For $300 million+? They’ll give out their first $300 million contract in 2050 when that’s the market value for the fourth most expensive middle infield free agent.

I do wonder how expandable Shaw is in the eyes of Jed though considering he made an offer to Bregman. His initial offer was for 6 years according to Jesse Rodgers I believe and Tom wouldn’t sign off on the $ figure. Bregman had allegedly agreed to the contract pending Toms approval. In an alternative universe I wonder if this means Shaw is traded at the deadline for Gore or another cost controlled top of the rotation starting pitcher. 

Edited October 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

 

For $300 million+? They’ll give out their first $300 million contract in 2050 when that’s the market value for the fourth most expensive middle infield free agent.

I do wonder how expandable Shaw is in the eyes of Jed though considering he made an offer to Bregman, where his initial offer wqs for 6 years according to Jesse Rodgers and Tom wouldn’t sign off on the $ figure. Bregman had allegedly agreed to the contract pending Toms approval. In an alternative universe I wonder if this means Shaw is traded at the deadline for Gore or another cost control top of the rotation starting pitcher. 

Our own Matt Trueblood had reported that the Cubs were considering still a Nico Hoerner trade as a corresponding move to Bregman. 

As of today, while I would guess he isn't entirely unavailable, it's highly unlikely he would be dealt. It is clear Jed Hoyer highly values defensive players and well rounded ones, Shaw had a great second half and is controlled for the foreseeable future and the Cubs have no clear internal replacement. There aren't a ton of 3b available this off-season, and the Cubs already called at trading for Suarez. Trading Shaw this off-season feels as equally unlikely as trading Pete Crow-Armstrong was last off-season.

[Geographyhater8888]

34 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Our own Matt Trueblood had reported that the Cubs were considering still a Nico Hoerner trade as a corresponding move to Bregman. 

As of today, while I would guess he isn't entirely unavailable, it's highly unlikely he would be dealt. It is clear Jed Hoyer highly values defensive players and well rounded ones, Shaw had a great second half and is controlled for the foreseeable future and the Cubs have no clear internal replacement. There aren't a ton of 3b available this off-season, and the Cubs already called at trading for Suarez. Trading Shaw this off-season feels as equally unlikely as trading Pete Crow-Armstrong was last off-season.

I see. It’s more likely they sign Tucker than trade Shaw, it was more hypothetical in nature and questioning Toms breaking even strategy effecting Jed’s roster building. We talk about half measures and on the surface signing Bregman, who had initially agreed to a longer contract which was reported to pair with Tucker and fetching a legitimate starting pitcher for Shaw would be picking a lane. I don’t blame Jed for being pragmatic and careful with his resources considering the budgetary constraints.

But that alone I believe would at least take us to the LCS and perhaps home home field advantage considering we had months of below replacement level production at third base and 3 different starting pitchers  missing multiple months. 

Edited October 16, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I see. I have no delusions about them trading Shaw it was more hypothetical in nature and questioning Toms breaking even strategy effecting Jed’s roster building. We talk about half measures and on the surface signing Bregman, who had initially agreed to a longer contract which was reported to pair with Tucker and fetching a legitimate starting pitcher for Shaw would be picking a lane. I don’t blame Jed for being pragmatic and careful with his resources considering the budgetary constraints.

But that alone I believe would at least take us to the LCS and perhaps home home field advantage considering we had months of below replacement level production at third base and 3 different starting pitchers  missing multiple months. 

The Cubs finished five games behind the Brewers. Matt Shaw was worth 1.4 fWAR and Alex Bregman was worth 3.5 fWAR. The Cubs would have still finished behind the Brewers. They would have added two wins of value, it doesn't matter if Bregman was better than Shaw early, they finished here; that's their total value, it's all that matters in this discussion. 

And if we are to believe that the Cubs were going to trade Hoerner to offset the price of Bregman (I'm not sure for who, or what, or how at that point), there's a reality where the Cubs were made worse by trading Hoerner, who was better than Bregman anyways. 

There's lots of arguments that surround the Cubs being a player short for the 2025 season, but I think you're over rating what an Alex Bregman signing would have resulted in. The Brewers still probably win the division with a few games in hand, and while one hitter may have resulted in a different NLCS outcome, I don't think one Bregman changes games 1 or 2 (they lost by 3+ in each game). They won games 3 and 4 without him. So really, it comes down to a fictitious few PA's against the Brewers in game 5 as the one chance to change that outcome. 

I'm always in favor of the Cubs spending money and improving but I think you're just a bit over zealous on what Bregman would or wouldn't have changed on his own.