Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[mul21]

Names I'd consider to fill spots next year:

3B: Bregman, Trevor Story (I assume he can handle 3B), Bichette

SP: Chris Sale (could be an ideal 1 yr deal/PTR move with the lockout looming), Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Freddy Peralta

Bench: Goldschmidt as a lefty masher, Miguel Rojas in a utility role

There aren't many OF I'd have any interest in pending the Tucker situation, but Trent Grisham might be worth a look.  Pete Alonso would be a terrible idea considering he'd want a ton of PT, a ton of money, and the 1B already on the roster is better than him anyway.

[Cuzi]

33 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

But overall, I do think the Cubs have essentially kicked the can as far down the road as they can. Caissie, Long, Ballesteros, and Alcantara have a ton of overlap in potential MLB positioning and the Cubs probably need to pick two or three of them to keep and one or two of them to trade before real fatigue set in.

I'm still blown away by the fact the Cubs havent already done this and instead it was Cam Smith they dealt.

[Geographyhater8888]

31 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I'm kinda there with those three and, to a lesser extent, Johnny Long and James Triantos. I think we have a pretty good idea of their respective ceilings and floors, with Ballesteros probably being the only one to benefit from more time in AAA if the Cubs truly believe he can stick at catcher long term, although he's also the only one of the five I'd be comfortable seeing in the 2026 opening day lineup.

Is it a sure thing Cassie is opening day DH and Mo develops in Iowa as a catcher or do you think there’s a possibility Cassie is packaged with other farm talent for a Edwards Cabrera or Gore? There’s a surplus of outfield options and Cassie is an unknown. I’m curious what their plans are when Happ and Suzuki are off the books. Alcantara slipped out of the top 100 and i’d trade him while he still has value. Tucker walking changes their win now urgency to an extent I’d think.

[Andy]

10 hours ago, Derwood said:

Since Kyle had a less-than-ideal season, would he want/be willing to do a 2-3 year deal with opt outs in order to bounce back and maybe cash in a few years down the line?

To be frank, Tucker is probably too old to do that. He'll be 29 the next time he plays in an organized baseball game and any year he plays before gunning for a mega contract is just going to lower the value of that contract at this point. To say nothing of the owners militantly pursuing a salary cap after next season and probably torpedoing games to get it.

[squally1313]

A very half assed look at the offense, with somewhat conservative WAR numbers for 2026.

• PCA 4.5
• Busch 3.5
• Hoerner 4.0
• Swanson 3.0
• Happ 2.5
• Suzuki 2.5
• Kelly/Amaya 2.5
• Shaw 2.0
• Ballesteros/Caissie 2.0

That right there is 26.5 WAR, which would have put them 9th in baseball this year. That's obviously a good start, but there's not really an clear move there to get that number into the 30s, which three teams, including us, did in 2025. Trading Happ or Suzuki are probably lateral moves at best, going Tucker over Ballesteros/Caissie probably gets you another 3 or so but probably locks you out, budget wise, on a big pitcher. 

I think you have to find a way to get out of the Taillon contract and do whatever you can, through trades and free agency, to pick up two better starters than him. Horton, Boyd, starter one, starter two, and then some combination of Shota/Assad/Rea/Wicks/whatever. Steele coming back is a bonus, and we've seen enough evidence to justify using the too many starters 'problem' as an excuse to give Boyd/Shota/etc some fake IL visits, long relief stretches, etc. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'm still blown away by the fact the Cubs havent already done this and instead it was Cam Smith they dealt.

Meh, I've never been very big on Cam Smith, myself, so it's kind of whatever that they traded him over others, at least to how I view the prospects. I know others liked him more than me, but for that aspect, just a shoulder shrug.

Considering he played a full season in the MLB, whether it was Smith, or Caissie dealt last year, we'd probably just shuffling names around this offseason regardless for the kicking-the-can thing. Cam Smith probably would have done enough in Iowa, similarly to Jonathon Long's pathway, where you'd still be at a similar place with him and we'd be saying similar stuff. Shaw played well enough post-ASB that replacing him with another rookie would keep the complicated "Where do these guys play?" discussion the same as well. 

[Cuzi]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Meh, I've never been very big on Cam Smith, myself, so it's kind of whatever that they traded him over others, at least to how I view the prospects. I know others liked him more than me, but for that aspect, just a shoulder shrug.

Considering he played a full season in the MLB, whether it was Smith, or Caissie dealt last year, we'd probably just shuffling names around this offseason regardless for the kicking-the-can thing. Cam Smith probably would have done enough in Iowa, similarly to Jonathon Long's pathway, where you'd still be at a similar place with him and we'd be saying similar stuff. Shaw played well enough post-ASB that replacing him with another rookie would keep the complicated "Where do these guys play?" discussion the same as well. 

I'm never big on prospects. It's impossible to do that when you have consensus #1 guys like Jordan Walker over there turning into an absolute turd. That guy was supposed to be a no doubt 40 HR guy and in over 1000 PAs he's only hit 27 and his defense is so bad it keeps him off the field.

Smith just had a much easier path to the field on the Cubs because the Cubs could, if they got absolutely blown away by an offer, move Hoerner and put Shaw and Smith at their natural positions.

Edited October 13, 2025 by Cuzi

[Geographyhater8888]

14 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Meh, I've never been very big on Cam Smith, myself, so it's kind of whatever that they traded him over others, at least to how I view the prospects. I know others liked him more than me, but for that aspect, just a shoulder shrug.

Considering he played a full season in the MLB, whether it was Smith, or Caissie dealt last year, we'd probably just shuffling names around this offseason regardless for the kicking-the-can thing. Cam Smith probably would have done enough in Iowa, similarly to Jonathon Long's pathway, where you'd still be at a similar place with him and we'd be saying similar stuff. Shaw played well enough post-ASB that replacing him with another rookie would keep the complicated "Where do these guys play?" discussion the same as well. 

Are they planning on keeping around Alcantara and Cassie to replace Suzuki and Happ or will either of them be used as part of a trade package to acquire a cost controlled starter like Cabrera? The timelines don’t align and if they’re in win now mode relying on rookies is a risky strategy whether it’s this year or 2027. If that’s the case then there should be no hesitation to pay a premium price for Valdez.

Edited October 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Stale is very much a thing, though usually is called "prospect fatigue". Essentially, there is a crossover point with prospects and perceived value.  For example, Owen Caissie has well over 1,000 PA's and there is a point when all he can do is lower his value. Even if he does well, you can kind of jump to "well, yeah, he's been there forever" as a reason why. 

I will say, I think Ballesteros can go to Iowa and be okay in this aspect. 21-year-old-catchers aren't really a thing in the MLB and with his shape/size and questions defensively he still has places to progress. 

But overall, I do think the Cubs have essentially kicked the can as far down the road as they can. Caissie, Long, Ballesteros, and Alcantara have a ton of overlap in potential MLB positioning and the Cubs probably need to pick two or three of them to keep and one or two of them to trade before real fatigue set in.

Yeah, I would say setting aside for a moment any roster management issues the entire quartet has earned the opportunity to open next year in MLB.  But there's some differing levels of urgency on getting them up

- Caissie *has* to open next year in MLB.  Whether it's here or Miami or Kansas City it just has to happen.  There's nothing to gain at Iowa anymore unless/until he gets his ass kicked by MLB pitching for a bit and has to go down and lick his wounds

- Alcantara has not hit at quite the level of the others, but he's also probably ready.  He's got a 125 wRC+ from Memorial Day onwards (~250 PAs) and a 138 from 6/25 on (180 PAs).  He's also entering his last option year.  Thankfully he's the easiest to toss on the bench.  He has big platoon splits to compliment Happ/PCA/Mo/Caissie and has legit defense/baserunning value

- Moises still has defensive development to do so it's not ideal but he can hang out in Iowa a little while longer if need be

- Jonny Long is arguably the most MLB ready hitter of the lot.  That said he hasn't been parked at Iowa for as long as the rest so again its not a disaster if he opens next year back at Iowa.  He could also stand to get a longer look at non 1B positions too which could buy time

I would, assuming Tucker's gone, plan for Alcantara on the bench from the jump.  With the other three it's a modified version of Horsefeathers, Marry. Kill called "Start, Trade, Option."

[Geographyhater8888]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

A very half assed look at the offense, with somewhat conservative WAR numbers for 2026.

• PCA 4.5
• Busch 3.5
• Hoerner 4.0
• Swanson 3.0
• Happ 2.5
• Suzuki 2.5
• Kelly/Amaya 2.5
• Shaw 2.0
• Ballesteros/Caissie 2.0

That right there is 26.5 WAR, which would have put them 9th in baseball this year. That's obviously a good start, but there's not really an clear move there to get that number into the 30s, which three teams, including us, did in 2025. Trading Happ or Suzuki are probably lateral moves at best, going Tucker over Ballesteros/Caissie probably gets you another 3 or so but probably locks you out, budget wise, on a big pitcher. 

I think you have to find a way to get out of the Taillon contract and do whatever you can, through trades and free agency, to pick up two better starters than him. Horton, Boyd, starter one, starter two, and then some combination of Shota/Assad/Rea/Wicks/whatever. Steele coming back is a bonus, and we've seen enough evidence to justify using the too many starters 'problem' as an excuse to give Boyd/Shota/etc some fake IL visits, long relief stretches, etc. 

Conservatively Suzuki will at least be in the 3’s now that he’ll get playing time in the outfield. 

Edited October 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[CubinNY]

I want a moratorium on any Happ trade conversations starting now. He's not getting traded. The Cubs love him; he loves the Cubs. End. Of. Story.  

[Bertz]

24 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

A very half assed look at the offense, with somewhat conservative WAR numbers for 2026.

• PCA 4.5
• Busch 3.5
• Hoerner 4.0
• Swanson 3.0
• Happ 2.5
• Suzuki 2.5
• Kelly/Amaya 2.5
• Shaw 2.0
• Ballesteros/Caissie 2.0

That right there is 26.5 WAR, which would have put them 9th in baseball this year. That's obviously a good start, but there's not really an clear move there to get that number into the 30s, which three teams, including us, did in 2025. Trading Happ or Suzuki are probably lateral moves at best, going Tucker over Ballesteros/Caissie probably gets you another 3 or so but probably locks you out, budget wise, on a big pitcher. 

I think you have to find a way to get out of the Taillon contract and do whatever you can, through trades and free agency, to pick up two better starters than him. Horton, Boyd, starter one, starter two, and then some combination of Shota/Assad/Rea/Wicks/whatever. Steele coming back is a bonus, and we've seen enough evidence to justify using the too many starters 'problem' as an excuse to give Boyd/Shota/etc some fake IL visits, long relief stretches, etc. 

Yeah it's pretty easy to keep this team flat talent wise year over year.  More or less "trade" 3-5 position player WAR for 3-5 pitcher WAR.  But I think if you want to improve you've got to really attack upgrading the pitcjing staff.  Much like the Dodgers last winter, where it seemed like they should be done and then they kept going and added Scott and Yates.

Also agreed that the SP playing time will sort itself out.  The sad reality is you're never going to make it through February-April unscathed.  Like hell Colin Rea opened the season in the bullpen and made 27 (!!) starts for us.

[Manny Trillos Brother]

I'm a little more optimistic than most of the Cubs media/podcast/X sphere. I think Counsell was good this year, it seems like most of Jed's moves worked out and I think we got some really bad luck injury wise/depending on young players wise that bit us in the postseason. 

Moves to Make:
1. One more #1 or #2 starting pitcher - one of the Padres guys ideally, but there are a few options here
2. Kyle Tucker role - whether this is Tucker himself, Kyle Schwarber, Suarez, Pete Alonso, etc. - we need that veteran power at DH that could fill in a field spot when needed.
3. Extend Busch, PCA & Brad Keller - not sure how much this will take or what their feelings are, but surely there is a way to get one/all of these done.
4. Pick up Shota's option - seems like a no-brainer at $20m
5. One of the "Sneaky" pick-ups to boost the lineup - there are a handful of mid-tier FA's that could provide significant surplus value and wouldn't break the bank - Luis Robert, Lourdes Gurriel, Luis Arraez, Ozzie Albies - I expect these guys will all be in the $15-18m/yr range based on their situations/percieved shortcomings and could really fit in well on the Cubs if they could hit their ceiling/get back to their best years.
6. Not sure what you trade them for or who might be available, but you gotta cash in some prospect value to help the MLB team this offseason. Not saying dump them all, but I just don't see Caissie/Alcantara/Triantos all having road to playing time, especially with Conrad/Kepley coming up right behind them.

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Yeah, I would say setting aside for a moment any roster management issues the entire quartet has earned the opportunity to open next year in MLB.  But there's some differing levels of urgency on getting them up

- Caissie *has* to open next year in MLB.  Whether it's here or Miami or Kansas City it just has to happen.  There's nothing to gain at Iowa anymore unless/until he gets his ass kicked by MLB pitching for a bit and has to go down and lick his wounds

- Alcantara has not hit at quite the level of the others, but he's also probably ready.  He's got a 125 wRC+ from Memorial Day onwards (~250 PAs) and a 138 from 6/25 on (180 PAs).  He's also entering his last option year.  Thankfully he's the easiest to toss on the bench.  He has big platoon splits to compliment Happ/PCA/Mo/Caissie and has legit defense/baserunning value

- Moises still has defensive development to do so it's not ideal but he can hang out in Iowa a little while longer if need be

- Jonny Long is arguably the most MLB ready hitter of the lot.  That said he hasn't been parked at Iowa for as long as the rest so again its not a disaster if he opens next year back at Iowa.  He could also stand to get a longer look at non 1B positions too which could buy time

I would, assuming Tucker's gone, plan for Alcantara on the bench from the jump.  With the other three it's a modified version of Horsefeathers, Marry. Kill called "Start, Trade, Option."

I agree, don't understand the logic of some saying sign this or that player until Cassie is ready.  He's ready, there's nothing left to prove in Iowa, it's go time, either with the Cubs or some other team.

Edited October 13, 2025 by gflore34

[The_Achiever]

I expect a typically sleepy offseason.  Unfortunately I think making Game 5 of the Division series will be the high-water mark for the Cubs for a while.  We won't be replacing Tucker and the production and lineup protection he offered in the first half.  Sad offense plus pretty good pitching will be enough to pursue a wild card spot in this division.  Not expecting much more than some changes on the fringes and Shota's option being picked up.  

[Donzo]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

Caissie *has* to open next year in MLB.  Whether it's here or Miami or Kansas City it just has to happen.  There's nothing to gain at Iowa anymore unless/until he gets his ass kicked by MLB pitching for a bit and has to go down and lick his wounds

Yep... He's either playing for the Cubs or the Cubs need to trade him like the Dodgers did with Busch.

A 3rd year in AAA is not an option.

[CDM0481]

How many years is Bregman looking to get? Entering 2026 season at 32, he feels primed to get a 9 year deal from the Angels. Anything beyond 4, maybe 5 years for him would be a mistake. He’s solid, doesn’t strikeout out a ton which the Cubs need. However, he’s already showing early signs of breakdown, decline.

[I owned a Suzuki]

Is Moises Ballesteros body type a concern? Can he get work next year as a 3rd catcher? When Amaya inevitably gets hurt can take some turns catching? 

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

Is Moises Ballesteros body type a concern? Can he get work next year as a 3rd catcher? When Amaya inevitably gets hurt can take some turns catching? 

Is it a concern? Probably, yeah, any time someone is unique and different there probably deserves some concern into how that will translate. His footwork behind the plate is weak thus far and he isn't ready to be an MLB catcher today. 

But I will say this; Alejandro Kirk has shown that his body type isn't an immediate excluding factor. He's also very young, only two other catchers under-21 caught an inning all season at the MLB level (most seasons feature very few catchers ages 23 and below to play). So while I think there are concerns to have, they are just pretty normal concerns we should have with all prospects. I think the body shape thing is an easy crutch for some people but think that the overall answer is far more nuanced than "he looks weird", too. 

[Jason Ross]

Quote

How much Tucker would make is a big question. The Cubs seem disinclined to push things into the $300 million or above range. In fact, they would probably be hesitant about anything long-term at a high rate. And if Tucker is looking for a pillow contract to build up his value, which there’s been no indication of, why would he want to come back to Wrigley, where the wind plays havoc on left-handed power hitters? Cody Bellinger will likely cash in after a season at Yankee Stadium, where lefties thrive.

- Sharma, the Athletic

Link to source

This is obviously written from a point of conjecture, but Sharma and Mooney hold enough clout and knowledge of situations that this is probably an important quote on the state of the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, too.

[CubinNY]

36 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

- Sharma, the Athletic

Link to source

This is obviously written from a point of conjecture, but Sharma and Mooney hold enough clout and knowledge of situations that this is probably an important quote on the state of the Cubs and Kyle Tucker, too.

Yes, I read that there is another story mentioning the CBA expiring. I expect a very quiet offseason. 

[TarzanJoeWallis]

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Yes, I read that there is another story mentioning the CBA expiring. I expect a very quiet offseason. 

The most disgusting part of that article is that the Cubs don’t even want to go into the $300 million range on a contract. 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

The most disgusting part of that article is that the Cubs don’t even want to go into the $300 million range on a contract. 

They gots bills to pay. They own a sportsbook that can't make any money, a hotel that is mostly empty, a political "movement" to support, and Wrigley bills. More money means more problems. 

 

[Donzo]

13 minutes ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

The most disgusting part of that article is that the Cubs don’t even want to go into the $300 million range on a contract. 

Not for Tucker. I can't blame them for that.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Donzo said:

Not for Tucker. I can't blame them for that.

Have you looked at his last three seasons before this one?