Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Post Count Padder]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Are you putting Detmers is the rotation or pen? What bird is Detmers killing? 

In my head, the pen.

[Bertz]

Don't know if this got posted but apparently (via BN) these were Jed's full comments w/r/t the offense

Quote

“Certainly we can look to get better offensively, but I feel like from an offensive standpoint, we could kind of play a game tomorrow if we needed to, we have players at every position, whether you move Seiya (Suzuki) back in the outfield, we have all those spots,” Hoyer said. “And so will we look to move things around, will we look to add? Of course, but the level of urgency is not nearly as high as on the pitching side.

“We’ll look at a lot of different angles offensively. We can get better. We should try to get better. But if the status quo is in a pretty good position, I think pitching-wise we need to make additions.”

 

Edited November 12, 2025 by Bertz
Missed Some

[Geographyhater8888]

Does Alcantara have a future as anything other than a fourth outfielder with the Cubs? If they plan on trotting out a cheapest outfield consisting of Cassie/Alcantara/Conrad/PCA then I really hope they target Gunner Henderson when he hits free agency after the 2028 season. 

Edited November 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

Seems like Jo Adell is a lesser version of 2023 Chris Morel as a hitter.

Edited November 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

On 11/11/2025 at 7:12 PM, Jason Ross said:

Sub 2.00 ERA in Korea last year. Struck out 36% of hitters faced. Fastball sits mid 90s and can tick up. Heard the control comes and goes gets a little too challenge heavy. His numbers in KBO were the in Merrill Kelly territory and he turned into a good SP after a KBO stint. 

I think a good org gets him to a mid rotation arm. But there is BP risk. And nothing is for sure. 

I haven’t heard any reports that the Cubs are linked to Valdez but he seems like a perfect fit for the rotation as an elite ground ball pitcher throwing behind an infield packed with gold glovers. He’d have great numbers here.

Edited November 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Does Alcantara have a future as anything other than a fourth outfielder with the Cubs? If they plan on trotting out a cheapest outfield consisting of Cassie/Alcantara/Conrad/PCA then I really hope they target Gunner Henderson when he hits free agency after the 2028 season. 

Alcantara is as good of a prospect as Caissie.  And I'd bet if we had something like WAR for AAA that accounted for hitting, baserunning, and defense they'd be damn close in 2025 Iowa production.  He gets less fanfair because his talent is less concentrated into dongs.

Especially with his long levers he'd probably be on the PCA/Shaw/Amaya timeline of getting his ass thoroughly kicked until Julyish if he was given a full time job.  He struggled with right handed sliders st AAA, MLB is going to really punish that weakness initially.

The fourth outfielder talk is less about that being all he'll ever be capable of and more an acknowledgement that that's probably the softest way for him to break into MLB.  On top of that it's a need at the MLB level.  PCA obviously has deep struggles against LHP, Happ's just okay against them, and both Caissie/Mo struggled mightily against them at Iowa last year.  But by this time next year it's reasonably likely the bat will have progressed enough we'll be happy to hand him an everyday job.

[Geographyhater8888]

36 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Alcantara is as good of a prospect as Caissie.  And I'd bet if we had something like WAR for AAA that accounted for hitting, baserunning, and defense they'd be damn close in 2025 Iowa production.  He gets less fanfair because his talent is less concentrated into dongs.

Especially with his long levers he'd probably be on the PCA/Shaw/Amaya timeline of getting his ass thoroughly kicked until Julyish if he was given a full time job.  He struggled with right handed sliders st AAA, MLB is going to really punish that weakness initially.

The fourth outfielder talk is less about that being all he'll ever be capable of and more an acknowledgement that that's probably the softest way for him to break into MLB.  On top of that it's a need at the MLB level.  PCA obviously has deep struggles against LHP, Happ's just okay against them, and both Caissie/Mo struggled mightily against them at Iowa last year.  But by this time next year it's reasonably likely the bat will have progressed enough we'll be happy to hand him an everyday job.

That covers 2026. I’m just wondering if the long term plan truly is an outfield consisting of PCA Cassie and Alcantara in 2027 and beyond hoping for a total of 5-7 WAR/season between the 2 of them? If that’s the long term plan then like I said they’ll have the $ and the need for an elite infield bat like a gunner Henderson if there’ll ever be a go all in year for this organization. They seem content with this pipeline of projected above average position players, and that’s contingent on accumulating similar WAR to Happ and Suzuki. 

Edited November 13, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[CubinNY]

53 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Especially with his long levers he'd probably be on the PCA/Shaw/Amaya timeline of getting his ass thoroughly kicked until Julyish if he was given a full time job.  He struggled with right handed sliders st AAA, MLB is going to really punish that weakness initially.

 

That's been his pattern at every stop. They can't hold on to these guys forever without giving them a real opportunity at the major league level. If I'm choosing, I will take Alcantara over OWNKC. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I haven’t heard any reports that the Cubs are linked to Valdez but he seems like a perfect fit for the rotation as an elite ground ball pitcher throwing behind an infield packed with gold glovers. He’d have great numbers here.

Valdez seems like a turd. He threw at this own catcher last year (he can claim he didn't; he obviously did). In terms of 2026, he might be a star pitcher in front of our defense. Beyond that, I'm very uninterested. 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

They seem content with this pipeline of projected above average position players, and that’s contingent on accumulating similar WAR to Happ and Suzuki. 

The reason I don't think the Cubs will go into Opening Day with Caissie or Alcantara as a starter is this exact uncertainty.

Put another way, does anyone here think Caissie or Alcantara will outperform Happ or Suzuki in terms of WAR in 2026, or 2027, for that matter?

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Outshined_One said:

The reason I don't think the Cubs will go into Opening Day with Caissie or Alcantara as a starter is this exact uncertainty.

Put another way, does anyone here think Caissie or Alcantara will outperform Happ or Suzuki in terms of WAR in 2026, or 2027, for that matter?

I think a lot of it depends on what you make of Caissie's second half. Over his last 140 PA's Caissie's K% was 20%. His wRC+ was 161. And his batted ball data is elite (diagram below). 

I don't think Caissie is going to be a 20% K% guy at MLB. But Owen Caissie being Kyle Stowers good feels like it's on the table and he finished with 4 wins. A lot of that will hinge on how much of the improvement was just "I've done this enough" versus "I actually got better". I think those answers will probably beyond anything you and I can speculate about. But if you come down on the side of "Kyle Stowers is a real outcome" than Caissie performing as a 3 fWAR player in 2027 feels very real.

[Bertz]

I'm expecting a roughly Owen Caissie's rookie year to look a lot like Michael Busch's.  120ish wRC+ with the aid of some platoon help, and a couple of deep funks over the course of the year.

[Jason Ross]

Bruce Levine, speaking about Tatsuya Imai and the Cubs:

Quote

"I think so. Yeah, I definitely think so. I don’t they’d back away, and I don’t think the Cubs would be afraid to make a huge investment in Imai.” He calls the idea that the Cubs won’t spend money a misconception.

 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'm expecting a roughly Owen Caissie's rookie year to look a lot like Michael Busch's.  120ish wRC+ with the aid of some platoon help, and a couple of deep funks over the course of the year.

If you combine Busch's 2023 and 2024 you end up with a 109 wRC which is about where I fall out for him. Plays up in a corner outfield spot though. 

[Wilson A2000]

🤡

[NorthsideAvenger]

27 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

🤡

Actions speak louder than words. 

[Post Count Padder]

PCA finished 9th in MVP voting. Busch, Hoerner, Seiya all got votes.

[Bertz]

If you get bored and want to start thinking about how the Cubs can use those open 40 man spots

 

[Geographyhater8888]

23 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

The reason I don't think the Cubs will go into Opening Day with Caissie or Alcantara as a starter is this exact uncertainty.

Put another way, does anyone here think Caissie or Alcantara will outperform Happ or Suzuki in terms of WAR in 2026, or 2027, for that matter?

Who do you think they roll with on opening day?

Edited November 14, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

20 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Bruce Levine, speaking about Tatsuya Imai and the Cubs:

 

The Athletic this AM threw some cold water on the Imai stuff.  Though they talked up Dylan Cease and Edward Cabrera so it was very much a taketh/giveth situation.

[Jason Ross]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The Athletic this AM threw some cold water on the Imai stuff.  Though they talked up Dylan Cease and Edward Cabrera so it was very much a taketh/giveth situation.

I'd be fine with any and all of those names. Give me a guy who has some big stuff who can step into a top-line role. I've gotten into the weeds on Imai and he's become a bit of "my guy": but at the deadline Cabrera was my guy, so it's probably recency bias.

[mul21]

13 hours ago, Bertz said:

If you get bored and want to start thinking about how the Cubs can use those open 40 man spots

 

Anybody have thoughts on promising targets from this list?

[Dfan25]

Well going by the early rumors , I wonder if the general plan is something like one of the top SP ( trade for Cabrera with Cassie involved ) and trading for Adell .  Have Suzuki / Adell / Ballesteros taking the RF and DH at bats ?

 

This depending on Shota declining the QO.

Edited November 14, 2025 by Dfan25

[Bertz]

11 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Well going by the early rumors , I wonder if the general plan is something like one of the top SP ( trade for Cabrera with Cassie involved ) and trading for Adell .  Have Suzuki / Adell / Ballesteros taking the RF and DH at bats ?

 

This depending on Shota declining the QO.

My read is that the shopping list is:

- One big time SP.  Someone who would be our ace the day they're acquired.  Dylan Cease, Joe Ryan, Mackenzie Gore, etc.

- One lesser SP that the team thinks Tommy Hottovy can work his magic on.  Maybe that's Shota, maybe it's Michael King, maybe it's one of the less expensive asian imports

- Two or possibly even three low end closers.  Similar to how at the end of last year Craig could feel comfortable going to any of Palencia, Kittredge, or Keller on any given day, I suspect the plan is a closer committee to enter next season

- One right handed bat.  I personally really want this guy to play 1B/3B, but from the vibes I suspect the focus is on the bat itself, and where he can play is a secondary consideration

- A backup infielder.  If the RHH bat isn't a 3B, the team needs a backup infielder.  I'd set your sites pretty low, you can't expect someone good to volunteer to come in and sit behind our current infielders.  We're talking the same Jon Berti/Vidal Brujan types as last winter

- A small army of depth relievers.  Especially if they can get guys with options and stash them at Iowa

 

[Outshined_One]

8 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Who do you think they roll with on opening day?

I get the sense we'll see Caissie/Alcantara traded in the offseason.  PCA and Happ are locks for next season and I think the Cubs will want to keep Seiya around, so my guess is the Cubs will sniff around for a corner OF after Tucker makes it clear he's going elsewhere.

Maybe Taylor Ward or Jo Adell?  They could also go dumpster diving for someone like Refsnyder if they want to take that approach.