Cubs 2025 Season Review/Offseason Preview Thread

[Cuzi]

Do we really believe that Shota, if the Cubs decline their side of the option, would accept his player option?

He's 32 years old. I find it hard to believe even in a down season he can't guarantee himself more than 2/30.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do we really believe that Shota, if the Cubs decline their side of the option, would accept his player option?

He's 32 years old. I find it hard to believe even in a down season he can't guarantee himself more than 2/30.

I'll preface this by saying I like Shota, especially relative to the current sentiment that probably overweights how his 2024 ended(he had a 3.08 ERA into the 2nd week of September!).

That said, the FA market is not particularly kind to 30-something pitchers who sit 90, and they especially won't be kind if they have a QO attached.  The only pitcher with an average fastball under 92 who was guaranteed more than 10 million total last year was Trevor Williams, who got 2/14 after putting up a 2.03 ERA/2.79 WHIP/2.0 fWAR in 13 starts.  

 

So from Shota's perspective you have to think of it this way:

* I can guarantee myself 30 million, with an opt out after next year if I end up pitching phenomenally.  The Cubs can void that opt out and bring things full circle to getting roughly 3/55 as if this decision was never his.

* If I turn that down, the odds are pretty decent I'm going to get a qualifying offer, at which point I have to choose between less guaranteed money than the option or whatever deal I get with a QO attached, which is very possibly a lower guarantee than my option.

 

It's not a slam dunk, and athletes like to bet on themselves, but the rational decision is probably to pick up his option.

[Bertz]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Do we really believe that Shota, if the Cubs decline their side of the option, would accept his player option?

He's 32 years old. I find it hard to believe even in a down season he can't guarantee himself more than 2/30.

I think it's very very likely that Shota is back next year, but it's roughly a coinflip whether it's via his option or via accepting the QO. 

His option makes him less 2026 dollars, but maximizes his guaranteed dolllars plus puts him in the driver's seat going forward.  The QO maxes out his 2026 dollars and has the benefit of him not being eligible for a tag next winter.  I feel like the merits of both make a lot of sense.

I think Shota's probably not earned the Cubs picking up his option.  But I also think he's way too good to not get a QO (horsefeathering Walker Buehler got $20M last winter).  But he's ALSO not good enough to turn down thr QO (if he was the Cubs would pick up their option).  So net net I think it is very unlikely he just walks out the door but I'm open minded about the mechanism for him staying.

[Cuzi]

17 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'll preface this by saying I like Shota, especially relative to the current sentiment that probably overweights how his 2024 ended(he had a 3.08 ERA into the 2nd week of September!).

That said, the FA market is not particularly kind to 30-something pitchers who sit 90, and they especially won't be kind if they have a QO attached.  The only pitcher with an average fastball under 92 who was guaranteed more than 10 million total last year was Trevor Williams, who got 2/14 after putting up a 2.03 ERA/2.79 WHIP/2.0 fWAR in 13 starts.  

 

So from Shota's perspective you have to think of it this way:

* I can guarantee myself 30 million, with an opt out after next year if I end up pitching phenomenally.  The Cubs can void that opt out and bring things full circle to getting roughly 3/55 as if this decision was never his.

* If I turn that down, the odds are pretty decent I'm going to get a qualifying offer, at which point I have to choose between less guaranteed money than the option or whatever deal I get with a QO attached, which is very possibly a lower guarantee than my option.

 

It's not a slam dunk, and athletes like to bet on themselves, but the rational decision is probably to pick up his option.

To be fair, Trevor Williams has a long extensive history of being a horsefeathers pitcher and ended the 2024 season on the 60 day IL.

I personally don't see much chance that either option is picked up. Shota can pretty much guarantee himself a 1/22 offer with everything getting declined. He still has very good offspeed offerings and is a lefty.

Edited October 17, 2025 by Cuzi

[mk49]

I really hope Shota will stay, either way.  He's been very good, except for Sept and Oct in 2025.  My guess is it will be extremely hard to sign (trade or free agency) a SP who is significantly better than Shota.  Alcantara and Cease probably won't be much better, and could be much worse.  Michael King could be great, if he will pitch like last year, but Shota was great last year, too.  Sure, Shota's command wasn't as good as last year, but I also questioned the pitch selection (like split, fastball or slider, inside/outside, high/low...) many times, which wasn't the case in 2024.  That's not completely his fault.  It's mostly the coaches' fault and somewhat catchers'.  I even started thinking maybe, Amaya was better catcher for Shota.

Anyway, I just hope he's going to come back next year, and pitch well.

Edited October 17, 2025 by mk49

[BKHoo]

4 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I really hope Shota will stay, either way.  He's been very good, except for Sept and Oct in 2025.  My guess is it will be extremely hard to sign (trade or free agency) a SP who is significantly better than Shota.  Alcantara and Cease probably won't be much better, and could be much worse.  Michael King could be great, if he will pitch like last year, but Shota was great last year, too.  Sure, Shota's command wasn't as good as last year, but I also questioned the pitch selection (like split, fastball or slider, inside/outside, high/low...) many times, which wasn't the case in 2024.  That's not completely his fault.  It's mostly the coaches' fault.

Anyway, I just hope he's going to come back next year, and pitch well.

I think Cease’s metrics tell a different story. He has amazing stuff and the Cubs need elite pitching if they want to win a WS. Cease is up and down year to year but he has elite upside and would be a major upgrade over Shota IMHO. 

[BKHoo]

I want Bregman or Tucker plus a #1 SP. I know that is asking a lot and sounds so unlikely with this ownership, but we are the freakin high market Chicago Cubs with a team built to win for 2026. Go. All. In.  

[Transmogrified Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

To be fair, Trevor Williams has a long extensive history of being a horsefeathers pitcher and ended the 2024 season on the 60 day IL.

I personally don't see much chance that either option is picked up. Shota can pretty much guarantee himself a 1/22 offer with everything getting declined. He still has very good offspeed offerings and is a lefty.

I actually think the more I look into it, the less likely it is that Shota gets offered the QO if it comes down to it. It wouldn’t shock me for multiple reasons, and I’d expect the Cubs to try to retain him either way, but the takeaway is that players like Shota do not get paid well in FA and the slope to them being paid like long relievers is very steep.

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I actually think the more I look into it, the less likely it is that Shota gets offered the QO if it comes down to it. It wouldn’t shock me for multiple reasons, and I’d expect the Cubs to try to retain him either way, but the takeaway is that players like Shota do not get paid well in FA and the slope to them being paid like long relievers is very steep.

I would be surprised if he doesn't get a QO.

There's already reports from the DBacks of offering Zac Gallen a QO and him absolutely not accepting it.

[Andy]

20 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I've seen this shared a bunch of times and the Cubs revenue number has never passed the sniff test for me.  As one point of comparison, the Phillies have a TV deal that pays them 25 million more per year, they outdrew the Cubs that year by 350k, had playoff revenue, and are a consistently successful team with stars in a similar market(assuming a lopsided 2:1 Cubs:Sox split of Chicago).  For these to be true there's a gap of ~100 million the Cubs are making that the Phillies are not and I have no idea what something of that magnitude can be when the biggest blocks(TV + attendance) are already considered

The only thing I can think of is Ballpark Village-type stuff, but I don't know what Philly's situation is there. A cursory Google says they were planning to construct one as of last year.

[Dfan25]

Roster resource has the Cubs at 162 mil on luxury tax and that’s including 17 in player benefits .

After a playoff appearance I would expect them to be right againts the 1st tier of the LT again . They have plenty of money to work with .   
 

They need to focus on stuff and strikeouts with their adds on the pitching staff .

To upgrade the offense will be difficult , unless they deal Shaw or reduced his role .

Edited October 17, 2025 by Dfan25

[mk49]

24 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

To upgrade the offense will be difficult , unless they deal Shaw or reduced his role .

Unless Shaw improves next year, which he should, although it won't be like PCA.

[squally1313]

The 2025 offense, as a whole, doesn't need improving. Replacing Kyle Tucker, who is either 1a or 1b in terms of offensive ability depending on how you view Busch, with either Caissie or Ballesteros, who performed either equally or worse than Matt Shaw at AAA, should be viewed as a significant downgrade and probably lowers the overall offensive production (inclusive of defense and baserunning) from 3rd to somewhere in the 6th-8th slot. 

[Tryptamine]

I honestly can't believe there's any discussion about not picking up Shota's option. Outside of the last month and a half or so of 2025, he's been very very good. There's no one out there with similar money who is going to give you what Shota is likely to. If we're shopping any starter it should be Taillon who is moved to bring in a pitcher via trade.

[Jason Ross]

47 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Unless Shaw improves next year, which he should, although it won't be like PCA.

PCA prior to ASB-2024: 63 wRC+
PCA August 2024: 153 wRC+ 
PCA September 2024: 90 wRC+

Matt Shaw prior to ASB-2025: 60 wRC+
Matt Shaw August 2025: 127 wRC+
Matt Shaw September: 95 wRC+

I wouldn't be so sure. The two had shockingly similar routes in their rookie seasons. Both faced swing decision questions and had mechanical fixes implemented during the season. Both were equally as not good through the break, Shaw really took off a bit earlier, so even though PCA outpaced him in August, if we just move the needle to ASB to Aug 31st for Shaw, it's a 154 wRC+. It's incredible how alike offensively the two performed. 

I don't think Matt Shaw is going to be the defacto NL MVP through May 31st next year, but do I think Shaw could match the 109 wRC+ PCA put up this year? Yes. Yes I do, if not a bit more.

[Bertz]

I think it's worth noting that Alex Bregman is basically an Ian Happ caliber hitter these days.  That's good, especially since he's an above average defender to boot.  But Matt Shaw's probably a league average hitter or better, almost certainly a better defender, and 8 years younger.  I think the gap there is smaller than you'd think and shrinking rapidly

I think if you want to take Bregman over Shaw it would have to be one of two reasons

1. You don't like Matt Shaw as a person

2. Bregman + Caissie/Mo might be approximately equal to Shaw + Tucker *purely on offense*, and Bregman's only going to get ~half the total contract of Tucker

1 is fair and I certainly won't argue with.  2 I'm willing to listen on but I'd bet after you do a full accounting the juice isn't actually worth the squeeze.

[Cuzi]

30 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I honestly can't believe there's any discussion about not picking up Shota's option. Outside of the last month and a half or so of 2025, he's been very very good. There's no one out there with similar money who is going to give you what Shota is likely to. If we're shopping any starter it should be Taillon who is moved to bring in a pitcher via trade.

Shota gave us 0.9 fWAR this year. His option is 3/57 with a full NTC if it is picked up.

You can certainly find better than that for the money.

His projection is a wash.

It really comes down to how aggressive the Cubs want to be on the FA market. If they let him walk they need 2 good to really good pitchers.

[mk49]

17 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You can certainly find better than that for the money.

 

Yeah, I'm sure you can, but what's the chance of the person actually signing with the Cubs?  Probably, not much.  Signing good free agent SP's isn't easy for the Cubs.  Not that many available, either.  I think trading should have better chance.  

Maybe, they can get lucky, and sign somebody like Boyd, Keller, Thielbar, Pomeranz or last year's version of Shota.  They exceeded most people's expectation.

[Cuzi]

45 minutes ago, mk49 said:

Yeah, I'm sure you can, but what's the chance of the person actually signing with the Cubs?  Probably, not much.  Signing good free agent SP's isn't easy for the Cubs.  Not that many available, either.  I think trading should have better chance.  

Maybe, they can get lucky, and sign somebody like Boyd, Keller, Thielbar, Pomeranz or last year's version of Shota.  They exceeded most people's expectation.

If the Cubs legitimately pursue top pitching I would say the chances are good any pitcher would sign here. The Cubs, under Hoyer, have chosen to go after solid pitchers more so than TOR pitchers. And there is more than enough pitchers on the market that I would consider better than Shota that if the Cubs want should be able to sign one of them.

Edited October 17, 2025 by Cuzi

[mk49]

16 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If the Cubs legitimately pursue top pitching I would say the chances are good any pitcher would sign here. The Cubs, under Hoyer, have chosen to go after solid pitchers more so than TOR pitchers. And there is more than enough pitchers on the market that I would consider better than Shota that if the Cubs want should be able to sign one of them.

To me, that's a big IF.  I don't think the Cubs would be willing to "legitimately" pursue.  If other teams like the Dodgers jack up the price, they just wouldn't want to compete with those teams.

Honestly, I hope you're right, and the Cubs can sign somebody better than Shota.  I just think it's not an easy task.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, mk49 said:

To me, that's a big IF.  I don't think the Cubs would be willing to "legitimately" pursue.  If other teams like the Dodgers jack up the price, they just wouldn't want to compete with those teams.

Honestly, I hope you're right, and the Cubs can sign somebody better than Shota.  I just think it's not an easy task.

I highly doubt the Dodgers will be in the market for any of these arms. They already have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani. They are more likely to go after Tucker. 

[Papa Cub]

https://sleeper.app/topic/263112877047545856/1284319737173536768

✌️

Tell me you’re saying goodbye without actually saying it. Turn the page. 

Edited October 17, 2025 by Papa Cub

[mk49]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I highly doubt the Dodgers will be in the market for any of these arms. They already have Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow, and Ohtani. They are more likely to go after Tucker. 

The Dodger is just an example, could be any team that is willing to pay big money.  I know the Dodgers already have plenty of good/great SP's. 

I agree with you about Tucker.  I have a feeling that the Cubs will offer something to Tucker, and the Dodgers will offer a much better contract.  

Edited October 17, 2025 by mk49

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, mk49 said:

The Dodger is just an example, could be any team that is willing to pay big money.  I know the Dodgers already have plenty of good/great SP's.

There's only so many teams that can do that, though.

The Dodgers are most likely out. The Yankees are also most likely out with Cole, Fried, and Rodon. The Phillies are most likely out with Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, and Nola.

Figure the Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Braves will be in play. Probably a couple other surprises.

But look how many pitchers we are talking about here. You've got Suarez, Valdez, Cease, King, Woodruff, Bieber, all of which I would put above Imanaga, and then you have a handful of guys on Imanaga's level, potentially including Imanaga himself. There are plenty of arms to go around.

[NorthsideAvenger]

37 minutes ago, Papa Cub said:

https://sleeper.app/topic/263112877047545856/1284319737173536768

✌️

Tell me you’re saying goodbye without actually saying it. Turn the page. 

Never got the impression he was ever interesting in staying long term. Disappointed he could not have had a better season but oh well. So it does not surprise me.