Brewers (TBD) vs Cubs (TBD): 10/9/25, 8:08pm

[Bull]

4 hours ago, CUBDOM4life said:

Boyd’s fully rested. Bullpen should still be ready to rock. Day off tomorrow. Easy win before we head back to Milwaukee 

If the second half taught me anything it’s that a game Boyd is pitching is not an easy win, well rested or not.

[JHBulls]

Win today and who knows what will happen in Game 5. This team already eliminated the Padres, so it would suck to get eliminated by the Brewers. 

[Dfan25]

Well I am a fan  first ,and I really hopes he does well , but I don’t think starting Boyd is a smart decision , just like I didn’t think it was in game 1 . 
 

Overall bad numbers for  very long while right now , innings concerns . Hasn’t look good against this team all year . While he is starting on normal rest , he did start on short rest his last time out and he got warmed in the 9th inning of game 3 of the WCS. 
 

His stuff just looks really flat to me , especially the off speed stuff and it has looked that way for basically the entire 2nd half .  I just don’t love the matchup . Chourio / Contreras and Vaughn really worry me , especially with what looks like a helping wind if you pull it to left .

 

As crazy as this may sound , I probably would have opened with Civale and mix and match from the 4th inning on .  That’s how little confidence  have in Boyd right now .

 

Really can’t afford to spot them 2 -3 runs early with Peralta going .  
 

They have to have guys up and ready in the pen basically from the start . If they get into a dangerous matchup with a couple of guys on early , they need to pull him , even if it is the 1st inning .

 

Anyway , hopefully they can find a way  to get this one . Would love to see Brewer fans get nervous going into a game 5 .

Edited October 9, 2025 by Dfan25

[ILMindState]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Ok, let’s take a step back here. No one suggested Tucker should be in left field. One poster suggested maybe sitting Happ because he has sucked against Peralta. His comment was if Tucker can run put him in right, move Seiya to left and DH Mo. I doubted that would happen and said they won’t bench Happ. I further said, IF ANY MOVE was made, if the Cubs felt comfortable with Tucker playing the field, Tucker and Seiya would swap. I also said I didn’t really like that idea, but that would be as crazy a change as I would think they would remotely consider. Basically still the same 4 guys in the line up. So your comment is wrong no matter who it was intended for. If it was for the original post, he didn’t suggest Tucker play right field. If it was for me, I never had Happ out of the line up. I know we are all on edge. But let’s not pick apart each other for things we didn’t say. We all want the same thing. A Cubs win. 

So my thought was Boyd is a 38% GB pitcher and the Brewers are a 44% GB hitting team. The only lefty in their lineup with a high pull% is Yelich but he has a 69% GB rate. Their RH power hitters are all pull hitters. Obviously this scenario only matters if Tucker is even healthy enough to play RF. You would also lose Tucker's bat once you replace him later in the game for defense, but backup QB Mo Baller is 2-2 with 4 RBIs in my made up scenario so you won't need to worry about offense when the Cubs are up huge in the later innings.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Well I am a fan  first ,and I really hopes he does well , but I don’t think starting Boyd is a smart decision , just like I didn’t think it was in game 1 . 
 

Overall bad numbers for  very long while right now , innings concerns . Hasn’t look good against this team all year . While he is starting on normal rest , he did start on short rest his last time out and he got warmed in the 9th inning of game 3 of the WCS. 
 

His stuff just looks really flat to me , especially the off speed stuff and it has looked that way for basically the entire 2nd half .  I just don’t love the matchup . Chourio / Contreras and Vaughn really worry me , especially with what looks like a helping wind if you pull it to left .

 

As crazy as this may sound , I probably would have opened with Civale and mix and match from the 4th inning on .  That’s how little confidence  have in Boyd right now .

 

Really can’t afford to spot them 2 -3 runs early with Peralta going .  
 

They have to have guys up and ready in the pen basically from the start . If they get into a dangerous matchup with a couple of guys on early , they need to pull him , even if it is the 1st inning .

 

Anyway , hopefully they can find a way  to get this one . Would love to see Brewer fans get nervous going into a game 5 .

All valid points IMO. But Boyd is a big reason they are here. He pitched well against SD. He pitched well at home. And the problem is they really don’t have great options. If Civale is an option they would reasonably consider that is proof of not good options. Civali did pitch well against the a Breers but in 60 pitches he had 1 swing and miss. For those who want Rea, sure he did fine. No runs in 3.1 innings. But 4 hits and 2 walks. So a WHIP of almost 2. How long do we expect that luck to continue? 

[Hot Sauce]

50 minutes ago, Bull said:

If the second half taught me anything it’s that a game Boyd is pitching is not an easy win, well rested or not.

Post-season games are not easy wins. It’s butthole clinching time from here on out.

[BKHoo]

The crowd needs to up their game even more.  They need to be LOUD!

We are leaking oil right now and going with a pitcher who is also leaking oil. Maybe the fact that he has been better at home and the (good) pitcher we are facing has been worse on the road will help, but there is a reason that the away team is a favorite in Vegas heading in. 

[Brian707]

13 minutes ago, BKHoo said:

is a reason that the away team is a favorite in Vegas heading in. 

I might bet on Milwaukee- if the Cubs lose, I will be pissed but will make money. If the Cubs win, I will be poorer but happy about another game Saturday

[squally1313]

I think Boyd is the best choice of a group of bad options. At the end of the day, just go with your best pitcher. Not in the last month, not in the 2-3 games against a specific opponent. Just...the best pitcher. He's going to face 12-15 hitters, figure it out from there.

We won last night, so whatever, but man, the fact that we saw 120 pitches from guys not named Peralta, Ashby, Misierowski, Uribe, and Megill and scored zero runs off those pitches is pretty discouraging. Breaking out against Peralta isn't how you'd draw it up, but saw some patience yesterday finally, hopefully it's a good first step. 

[Bertz]

13 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

I might bet on Milwaukee- if the Cubs lose, I will be pissed but will make money. If the Cubs win, I will be poorer but happy about another game Saturday

(I almost always do this for big games)

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think Boyd is the best choice of a group of bad options. At the end of the day, just go with your best pitcher. Not in the last month, not in the 2-3 games against a specific opponent. Just...the best pitcher. He's going to face 12-15 hitters, figure it out from there.

We won last night, so whatever, but man, the fact that we saw 120 pitches from guys not named Peralta, Ashby, Misierowski, Uribe, and Megill and scored zero runs off those pitches is pretty discouraging. Breaking out against Peralta isn't how you'd draw it up, but saw some patience yesterday finally, hopefully it's a good first step. 

To be fair to the Cubs just a little bit (not disagreeing with your assumption at all, I wish they would have poured it on last night too), the Brewers faced Aaron Civale, Colin Rea, and Ben Brown most of games 1-2 and didn't do jack against them either. They were way up in some of those innings and the Cubs never made much of a move to get back into it, so you could argue that they weren't geared up or whatever, but it does ring true. I think I'm just trying to remain optimistic and find some light. 

Regardless,. the Cubs are likely going to have to hit against good pitching tonight. It's incredibly unlikely they knock out Freddy early, or really, get up big at any point. Whether they're ahead or behind, we can almost guarantee Uribe, Megill, and a few others will get some looks. So they'll have to find it in them offensively tonight. 

[bukie]

There are at least 5 reasons I like starting Boyd today better than I did in G1:

1. He's on normal rest and not short rest.
2. He's at Wrlgley, where he's fared far better on the season.
3. He's easily the best starter available today.
4. He should be well rested after throwing just 30 pitches in G1 and not warming in the pen 2 days prior.
5. For a potential NLCS, using him here would put him on regular rest for Game 2.

[Brian707]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

(I almost always do this for big games)

[s2obed]

I feel ok about tonight’s game. I think Boyd will bounce back from game 1 but I still have concerns about the offense. Will they do anything/enough or continue to suck with RISP?

Edited October 9, 2025 by s2obed

[squally1313]

34 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

To be fair to the Cubs just a little bit (not disagreeing with your assumption at all, I wish they would have poured it on last night too), the Brewers faced Aaron Civale, Colin Rea, and Ben Brown most of games 1-2 and didn't do jack against them either. They were way up in some of those innings and the Cubs never made much of a move to get back into it, so you could argue that they weren't geared up or whatever, but it does ring true. I think I'm just trying to remain optimistic and find some light. 

Regardless,. the Cubs are likely going to have to hit against good pitching tonight. It's incredibly unlikely they knock out Freddy early, or really, get up big at any point. Whether they're ahead or behind, we can almost guarantee Uribe, Megill, and a few others will get some looks. So they'll have to find it in them offensively tonight. 

Yeah I think ultimately this is all related and getting to an ultimate point (and this is not to disparage/diminish all your good and hard work): none of these decisions really matter in this sample size. Like, should Quintana have started earlier given how good he yesterday? Of course not! He's a bad pitcher. But I feel pretty comfortable saying that, regardless of who you think the best option and the worst option is, the actual impact it has on winning this game is pretty much impossible to determine and likely small. A .300 OBP hitter is (almost always) objectively bad. A .400 OBP hitter is very elite. Over 5 PAs, the difference is negligible. 

We're all sitting here locked in on these games because we love the team and it's October and whatever else. But if these types of decisions truly swayed wins and losses to a material manner, and a manager had a chance to do that 162-175 times a year....they'd be getting paid more than Colin Rea. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

I might bet on Milwaukee- if the Cubs lose, I will be pissed but will make money. If the Cubs win, I will be poorer but happy about another game Saturday

Funny you said that. Game 3 against the Padres I bet the Padres in the 7th inning because I had them at plus 1350. I bet $15 on them and figured I have no issue losing $15 but if the Cubs are Going to lose I might as well make $200. 

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, bukie said:

There are at least 5 reasons I like starting Boyd today better than I did in G1:

1. He's on normal rest and not short rest.
2. He's at Wrlgley, where he's fared far better on the season.
3. He's easily the best starter available today.
4. He should be well rested after throwing just 30 pitches in G1 and not warming in the pen 2 days prior.
5. For a potential NLCS, using him here would put him on regular rest for Game 2.

All valid points. But I want to point out one thing. Had Boyd not done game 1 he wouldn’t be going at Wrigley today. That may have played a part in Counsell’s decision as to who starts game 1. Had he pitched in game 2 he wouldn’t be available until game 5 in Milwaukee.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This probably will not last to the 2nd inning, but I’m at peace with the outcome at this point.  Made the NLDS, didn’t get swept and get the revenue of both home games, clearly disfavored to advance after 2 bad games.  Pressure’s off, hopefully they touch up Peralta early and start making them think, because paradoxically I kinda like their game 5 chances?  Especially if they use Misiorowski tonight they’re gonna have no one who can reasonably get more than 3 outs without a lot of performance risk.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

This probably will not last to the 2nd inning, but I’m at peace with the outcome at this point.  Made the NLDS, didn’t get swept and get the revenue of both home games, clearly disfavored to advance after 2 bad games.  Pressure’s off, hopefully they touch up Peralta early and start making them think, because paradoxically I kinda like their game 5 chances?  Especially if they use Misiorowski tonight they’re gonna have no one who can reasonably get more than 3 outs without a lot of performance risk.

I think Misierowski is their only real game 5 option at this point, but that still leaves Ashby/Koenig/Uribe/Megill to get 5 innings without much concern about overusing them with the day off tomorrow. Nick Mears if things get real weird. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

7 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I think Misierowski is their only real game 5 option at this point, but that still leaves Ashby/Koenig/Uribe/Megill to get 5 innings without much concern about overusing them with the day off tomorrow. Nick Mears if things get real weird. 

I mean they could try Priester again like the Cubs are doing with Boyd, but if their plan A is “use 7 pitchers for 9 innings” I like my chances that 2 of those guys don’t have it and that plan B is even more desperate

[Wilson A2000]

Shaw should not be in the lineup tonight

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I mean they could try Priester again like the Cubs are doing with Boyd, but if their plan A is “use 7 pitchers for 9 innings” I like my chances that 2 of those guys don’t have it and that plan B is even more desperate

Wouldn’t priester be on 2 days rest? I don’t see him as an option for game 5. Hope he is, though. 

[mk49]

To me and probably to most of us, Jamo seems to be the only good SP we have at the moment.  Boyd or Imanaga don't make much difference to me.  They could perform great someday, but they could be bad any day like they have been lately. 

I really wish Boyd will pitch well today.  If he could pitch 4 innings with 2 or less ER, that would be good.  The offense needs to score early.  I'd be super happy, if the Cubs are up by 3 by the end of 4th inning, kind of like yesterday.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Wouldn’t priester be on 2 days rest? I don’t see him as an option for game 5. Hope he is, though. 

Ah I mixed up games 2 and 3 in my head, but yeah either way they’ll need to empty the pen of leverage guys AND get a few innings from a riskier option.  Definitely not as intimidating as you would think given the advantages Milwaukee presumably has this series

[soccer10k]

Obviously the Cubs winning is preferable. But the last thing I want is to sit through a 3 hour game only to figuratively get kicked in the dick at the end. So if the Cubs are going to lose, just rip the bandaid off and get it out of the way early.

That being said, please win, Cubs.