Cubs (Imanaga) vs Brewers (Ashby): 10/6/25, 8:08pm

[Brandon Glick]

I anticipate that Brock will do the "by the numbers" threads we've been trialing in the playoffs, but for now, we'll chat here.

So, uh, the Cubs kinda need this game, huh? Imanaga can really become a folk hero tonight.

[BearDown1223]

The big question today is does counsell make a move with his starting lineup? I'm in favor of starting the day with Nico, Turner, Seiya - then replacing Turner with Buschy immediately.  

 

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

The big question today is does counsell make a move with his starting lineup? I'm in favor of starting the day with Nico, Turner, Seiya - then replacing Turner with Buschy immediately.  

 

I highly suspect Castro will start for Shaw at 3b. They did the same thing the last time Priester went (also Imanaga started for the Cubs). Priester is much worse against lefties than righties, and Shaw's glove will be negated with a flyball pitcher on the mound.

[ILMindState]

I hate this Brewers team. There's no way a lineup full of Ryan Theriots and Mike Fontenots should be this good.

[Stratos]

27 minutes ago, BearDown1223 said:

The big question today is does counsell make a move with his starting lineup? I'm in favor of starting the day with Nico, Turner, Seiya - then replacing Turner with Buschy immediately.  

 

Since Ashby is the opener they could just load the top of the lineup with their RHB and hit Busch 5th or 6th or something.  I dunno.

[Stratos]

3 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I hate this Brewers team. There's no way a lineup full of Ryan Theriots and Mike Fontenots should be this good.

Maybe they're not good, and all year have just been opening their dome in a position where their opponents get all the sunlight over their dugouts and play 80s soft rock during their opponents' batting practice.

I've suspected the Brewers of all sorts of shenanigans over the years. But I guess Counsell would know....

[squally1313]

I would go with something like:

1. Turner - he's not our best hitter vs LHP, but Busch is our best hitter at the moment and we should optimize how many ABs against RHPs he gets
2. Hoerner - he's fine here against both, elite here against LHPs
3. Tucker
4. Suzuki
5. Kelly/Swanson - pretty indifferent here
6. Happ - need him here to split up the RHBs for down the stretch
7. Kelly/Swanson
8. PCA
9. Castro - unlikely Ashby pitches this deep, prefer Castro over current Shaw against a RHP with extreme splits

[Connor McConnor]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

 play 80s soft rock during their opponents' batting practice.

 

I saw a news report and the reporter said the same thing.  At the time Paul McCartney's "Band on the Run" was playing in the stadium during the clip.  That is not 80s soft rock!   Get off my horsefeathers lawn!

Edited October 6, 2025 by Connor McConnor

[BearDown1223]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I would go with something like:

1. Turner - he's not our best hitter vs LHP, but Busch is our best hitter at the moment and we should optimize how many ABs against RHPs he gets
2. Hoerner - he's fine here against both, elite here against LHPs
3. Tucker
4. Suzuki
5. Kelly/Swanson - pretty indifferent here
6. Happ - need him here to split up the RHBs for down the stretch
7. Kelly/Swanson
8. PCA
9. Castro - unlikely Ashby pitches this deep, prefer Castro over current Shaw against a RHP with extreme splits

Don't hate it.

Here's mine

Nico - Turner - Suzuki - Tucker - Kelly - Happ - Swanson - PCA - Castro

Edited October 6, 2025 by BearDown1223

[Bertz]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I would go with something like:

1. Turner - he's not our best hitter vs LHP, but Busch is our best hitter at the moment and we should optimize how many ABs against RHPs he gets
2. Hoerner - he's fine here against both, elite here against LHPs
3. Tucker
4. Suzuki
5. Kelly/Swanson - pretty indifferent here
6. Happ - need him here to split up the RHBs for down the stretch
7. Kelly/Swanson
8. PCA
9. Castro - unlikely Ashby pitches this deep, prefer Castro over current Shaw against a RHP with extreme splits

This caught my eye.  I was pretty positive that Priester did not have big splits.  Reason being is I remember being surprised when we faced him earlier in the year by that fact, sinker/slider guys generally do. when we faced him.  So I went digging:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/quinn-priester/25977/splits-tool?position=P&splitArr=5&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2025-3-1&endDate=2025-11-1&players=&filter=&groupBy=month&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1

It looks like Priester just suddenly stopped being able to get lefties out starting in August?  Curious what the hell happened there.

But yeah I like the Turner/Busch gambit.  I also agree sliding Happ down is a good idea.  He's broadly a high ball hitter righty and a low ball hitter lefty, so with the Brewers going from a lefty sinkerballer to a righty I'd ideally want him to avoid Ashby and on the other hand want him to face Priester ASAP after he comes into the game.

[Jason Ross]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This caught my eye.  I was pretty positive that Priester did not have big splits.  Reason being is I remember being surprised when we faced him earlier in the year by that fact, sinker/slider guys generally do. when we faced him.  So I went digging:

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/quinn-priester/25977/splits-tool?position=P&splitArr=5&splitArrPitch=&autoPt=false&splitTeams=false&statType=player&statgroup=2&startDate=2025-3-1&endDate=2025-11-1&players=&filter=&groupBy=month&wxTemperature=&wxPressure=&wxAirDensity=&wxElevation=&wxWindSpeed=&sort=-1%2C1

It looks like Priester just suddenly stopped being able to get lefties out starting in August?  Curious what the hell happened there.

But yeah I like the Turner/Busch gambit.  I also agree sliding Happ down is a good idea.  He's broadly a high ball hitter righty and a low ball hitter lefty, so with the Brewers going from a lefty sinkerballer to a righty I'd ideally want him to avoid Ashby and on the other hand want him to face Priester ASAP after he comes into the game.

Priester seems to have changed his pitch mix around August, using his cutter far more and it has not been a good pitch for him. About a 13% increase recently. It's been his worst pitch of the year and has the highest batted ball data against it. Based on heat maps, it's all over the middle of the plate. You'd usually use a cutter against LHH (he does use it around the same % against RHH) all I can do is guess guess because I can't super sort for pitch% per month per hitter, my guess is the cutter is the culprit. 

His numbers in September against LHH are horrible and it coincides with the cutter% increase. 

EDIT: It's the cutter. Look at how much he's lost the pitch location: The top is his cutter location against LHH before July and then after. 

He was getting the cutter in on hitters hands prior. Kind of how you'd expect him to attack LHH with the pitch. Here is where here's leaving it since:

He's stopped getting the ball in on hands. He's getting all the plate now, so it's sliding right into the zone. 

Here is where hitters were making contact before August on the cutter: 

And compare to where hitters are getting it now:

[Irrelevant Dude]

18 minutes ago, Connor McConnor said:

I saw a news report and the reporter said the same thing.  At the time Paul McCartney's "Band on the Run" was playing in the stadium during the clip.  That is not 80s soft rock!   Get off my horsefeathers lawn!

They are really searching for stories if this is one of them.  How does what music is played in the stadium during warmups impact anyone at all?  Is there some hatred of classic rock now that I don't know about?

[UMFan83]

40 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Since Ashby is the opener they could just load the top of the lineup with their RHB and hit Busch 5th or 6th or something.  I dunno.

This. There’s no reason to burn turner in the lineup when there’s a chance a lefty comes in later in a big spot 

[gflore34]

11 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Priester seems to have changed his pitch mix around August, using his cutter far more and it has not been a good pitch for him. About a 13% increase recently. It's been his worst pitch of the year and has the highest batted ball data against it. Based on heat maps, it's all over the middle of the plate. You'd usually use a cutter against LHH (he does use it around the same % against RHH) all I can do is guess guess because I can't super sort for pitch% per month per hitter, my guess is the cutter is the culprit. 

His numbers in September against LHH are horrible and it coincides with the cutter% increase. 

Jason as you are a pitching data guru, thought I also saw something about Priester out-pitching his metrics for most, if not, all of this season?  Might have been a Red Sox site discussing the merits of their trade with the Brewers and how it currently appears to be one-sided but, may not be for long.

Edited October 6, 2025 by gflore34

[gflore34]

They better win, I'm skipping my next to last fall season old man lacrosse tonight.   Matt Shaw and probably, Soroka, know what I'm talking about.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, gflore34 said:

Jason as you are a pitching data guru, thought I also saw something about Priester out-pitching his metrics for most, if not all of this season?  Might have been a Red Sox site discussing the merits of their trade with the Brewers and how it currently appears to be one-sided but, may not be for long.

I actually think he'll outpitch his metrics somewhat often with his current build. I think xFIP is a great datapoint, but there is enough information on how to outpitch your xFIP and it's generally by throwing strikes, getting ahead, and getting a ton of ground balls. Priester does all of these things.

Where I think he should struggle against LHH specifically is how his pitch mix doesn't really change for LHH the way it should. Sliders and sinkers are a no-no for attacking opposite handed hitters and he just keeps tossing them. So I'm not shocked that he is. 

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I actually think he'll outpitch his metrics somewhat often with his current build. I think xFIP is a great datapoint, but there is enough information on how to outpitch your xFIP and it's generally by throwing strikes, getting ahead, and getting a ton of ground balls. Priester does all of these things.

Where I think he should struggle against LHH specifically is how his pitch mix doesn't really change for LHH the way it should. Sliders and sinkers are a no-no for attacking opposite handed hitters and he just keeps tossing them. So I'm not shocked that he is. 

Thanks.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, gflore34 said:

Thanks.

Any time! I also explained up in a post about 2 or 3 above where his issues are with the cutter right now against LHH which should also explain why he's sucked against them recently.

[CubinNY]

Obviously not a must, must win, but about as close to it as possible. They need to show they can hang. Shota's splitter isn't doing what it is supposed to do lately. Hopefully, tonight it will. The Brewers are a solid team, but the Cubs can hang with them if the pitching holds. 

[Banks-Williams]

If Imanaga goes bad, do you think Counsel will accept responsibility?  I think not. I’ve never seen him do it.  In fact, he never once mentioned that his decision to play his starters thoughout July and August had anything to do with the Cubs losing so many games they dropped deeply into second place. 

[ILMindState]

9 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

If Imanaga goes bad, do you think Counsel will accept responsibility?  I think not. I’ve never seen him do it.  In fact, he never once mentioned that his decision to play his starters thoughout July and August had anything to do with the Cubs losing so many games they dropped deeply into second place. 

Counsel is such an idiot for using his starters!! He should have used Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes instead. What a moran!

[Cuzi]

11 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

If Imanaga goes bad, do you think Counsel will accept responsibility?  I think not. I’ve never seen him do it.  In fact, he never once mentioned that his decision to play his starters thoughout July and August had anything to do with the Cubs losing so many games they dropped deeply into second place. 

Maybe we should have been a little more worried about getting someone better than Imanaga at the deadline. But here we are.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, Banks-Williams said:

If Imanaga goes bad, do you think Counsel will accept responsibility?  I think not. I’ve never seen him do it.  In fact, he never once mentioned that his decision to play his starters thoughout July and August had anything to do with the Cubs losing so many games they dropped deeply into second place. 

But what proof do we have that the reason that the Cubs fell into second place because of that?

First, his decision to play or not play his bench has nothing to do with the Brewers going on a pretty historic run of baseball. The Brewers went nuclear and won a ton of baseball games. That's on Milwaukee, not Counsell.

Beyond that, the Cubs have beaten any of their projection model outcomes pre-season. Most had them in the mid 80-s to 90(ish) range, but 92 wins is at the very top of what was expected. I know there is an argument that the Cubs got better than expected outcomes from some players who took leaps, but they also lost their best SP right off the bat and Tucker got hurt and missed time too, so I think it balances out.

Most of the season, especially in July, the Cubs' bench was Justin Turner (unplayable against RHP), Reese McGuire, Jon Berti and Vidal Brujan. Do we think the Cubs would have won more games if they started multiple replacement level players? If we're blaming anyone there, that seems like a Hoyer thing first (though most teams run a pretty garbage bench, to be fair) before a Counsell thing. Into August, after they picked up Castro, the Cubs played the bench much more. 

I just don't see any thing for Craig Counsell to have to apologize or take blame for that.  

[CubUgly]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Maybe we should have been a little more worried about getting someone better than Imanaga at the deadline. But here we are.

This, we were VERY fortunate Boyd made it the whole year and Horton pitched as many innings as he did.  I did not expect either, nor did I think it reasonable to expect.  I honestly thought we'd need two SP's at the deadline. 

[Brian707]

4 minutes ago, CubUgly said:

I honestly thought we'd need two SP's at the deadline. 

Hardly any starters were moved at the deadline to any team. Prices were just way too high

Jed usually is forced by PTR to shop at the Dollar Tree but I don't blame him this time