Cubs (Boyd) vs Pirates (Oviedo): 9/17/25, 11:35am

[Stratos]

Are the Cubs running Boyd into the ground?  If he can't get Pirate hitters out then that's an issue.  6.64 ERA over the last month.

No idea why they're having him throw 80+ pitches this start when he clearly doesn't have it and might be hitting a wall.

[Geographyhater8888]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

They have been amazingly consistent all year. Have they even had a 10 game stretch were they were 3-7? I feel, without looking, that they have not.

Edit: I looked it up. There was never a 10 game span where the Cubs were not at least 4-6. I think that is pretty incredible. They stayed away from a stretch of terrible play all year. 

From August 3rd-14 they had a 3-7 stretch. But otherwise they’ve been remarkable consistent team. They’ve been consistent for Counsels entire tenure in terms of avoiding long losing streaks dating back to spring of 2024, 5 games is Their longest losing streak.

Edited September 18, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

I’m worried about a playoff lineup without Tucker. Seiya better get going.

Edited September 18, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

Are the Cubs running Boyd into the ground?  If he can't get Pirate hitters out then that's an issue.  6.64 ERA over the last month.

No idea why they're having him throw 80+ pitches this start when he clearly doesn't have it and might be hitting a wall.

There's nothing that looks off physically.  He's not drawing as much chase for whatever reason, but there's not even a whiff of anything in his profile that would indicate anything wrong physically.  Hell even results wise he's throwing strikes still and his swing and miss are fine, which again are the things you'd see if he was diminished.  

He's getting hit harder and drawing less chase.  I'd guess some of that is luck, and some of that is interrelated to whatever his issue is (my guess is sequencing).

[CubUgly]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's nothing that looks off physically.  He's not drawing as much chase for whatever reason, but there's not even a whiff of anything in his profile that would indicate anything wrong physically.  Hell even results wise he's throwing strikes still and his swing and miss are fine, which again are the things you'd see if he was diminished.  

He's getting hit harder and drawing less chase.  I'd guess some of that is luck, and some of that is interrelated to whatever his issue is (my guess is sequencing).

So no dip in velocity or no noticeable change in pitch shape?  Has he changed the frequency that he throws certain pitches?  Your guess is sequencing, and if it's just that simple it gives me at least some hope.  But I don't feel great starting him in the playoffs the way he's pitched down the stretch. 

[Stratos]

31 minutes ago, Bertz said:

There's nothing that looks off physically.  He's not drawing as much chase for whatever reason, but there's not even a whiff of anything in his profile that would indicate anything wrong physically.  Hell even results wise he's throwing strikes still and his swing and miss are fine, which again are the things you'd see if he was diminished.  

He's getting hit harder and drawing less chase.  I'd guess some of that is luck, and some of that is interrelated to whatever his issue is (my guess is sequencing).

Maybe he's missing some spots and leaving more pitches in more hittable locations?  

[Gjfificifjdej]

5 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

I’m worried about a playoff lineup without Tucker. Seiya better get going.

Idk they look dramatically better since he got IL’d. Don’t know what the numbers are but the watch-ability of the lineup is leagues better without him 

[mul21]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

There's nothing that looks off physically.  He's not drawing as much chase for whatever reason, but there's not even a whiff of anything in his profile that would indicate anything wrong physically.  Hell even results wise he's throwing strikes still and his swing and miss are fine, which again are the things you'd see if he was diminished.  

He's getting hit harder and drawing less chase.  I'd guess some of that is luck, and some of that is interrelated to whatever his issue is (my guess is sequencing).

He's missing just off the edges a lot lately and those pitches were dotting the corners earlier in the season.  When he got roughed up in Milwaukee it was the same thing, he couldn't hit the corner and if he's not hitting the corner, guys just aren't swinging because they don't have to when he's not getting called strikes.  I really think that's the only difference.  Just shows how fine the line is between really good and bad in MLB.

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Maybe he's missing some spots and leaving more pitches in more hittable locations?  

Could be.  Anecdotally it feels like he's not executing that backdoor curveball to righties nearly as often. 

But yeah famous last words declaring a pitcher healthy, but I don't see anything off with him.  He's been struggling since 8/19, here are his pre-post numbers across a bunch of metrics

Fastball Velo - 93.3 / 93.3

In Zone Rate - 57.1 / 57.4

Chase Rate - 29.7 / 23.7

First Strike Rate - 69.2 / 63.6 (heavily skewed by yesterday, was 67% before that)

Zone Contact Rate - 85.1 / 85.0

Vertical Release Point - 5.49 / 5.52

Horizontal Release Point - 2.29 / 2.23

Extension - 6.4 / 6.4

Arm Angle - 25.2 / 25.4

Remarkably consistent aside from the chase numbers and the 1st strike numbers (which are probably due to the chase numbers).  Hitters have basically gone from chasing as much as Heliot Ramos to chasing as little as Michael Busch.  That's the issue, but I can't figure out what's causing that.  My suspicions would generally be sequencing or tipping.

[gflore34]

55 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Idk they look dramatically better since he got IL’d. Don’t know what the numbers are but the watch-ability of the lineup is leagues better without him 

I think it best to assume Tucker is done, wouldn't be surprised if that's Craig' starting point as well.  Regarding your point above, I was thinking the same.  Yes, a healthy Tucker improves the lineup but, I do think the version of Tucker before IL stint is replaceable.  Does anyone know the status of Cassie?  Concussions are nothing to be taken lightly, I'm convinced a concussion effectively end the career of Andre Curbelo (Illini PG) and they've ended the careers of may others.  If healthy, is Cassie a possibility for the playoff roster?

[Rcal10]

36 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think it best to assume Tucker is done, wouldn't be surprised if that's Craig' starting point as well.  Regarding your point above, I was thinking the same.  Yes, a healthy Tucker improves the lineup but, I do think the version of Tucker before IL stint is replaceable.  Does anyone know the status of Cassie?  Concussions are nothing to be taken lightly, I'm convinced a concussion effectively end the career of Andre Curbelo (Illini PG) and they've ended the careers of may others.  If healthy, is Cassie a possibility for the playoff roster?

Highly doubt Tucker is done. He won’t play right field, but he can DH.

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

From August 3rd-14 they had a 3-7 stretch. But otherwise they’ve been remarkable consistent team. They’ve been consistent for Counsels entire tenure in terms of avoiding long losing streaks dating back to spring of 2024, 5 games is Their longest losing streak.

Good catch. I missed that one. So they did go 3-7 once. My bad. 

[Soul]

Not applicable for this season but Schwarbs is a FA.  C'mon Ricketts, make an exception.  Bring him back.

[Tryptamine]

2 hours ago, Soul said:

Not applicable for this season but Schwarbs is a FA.  C'mon Ricketts, make an exception.  Bring him back.

From a strictly fan point of view, sure. From a team composition and age perspective, I'm out. You've got Ballesteros and Seiya who are this point are both basically DHs. To then bring in another DH on top of that, who is going to be 33 on opening day and likely want 4 or 5 year deal, nah I want no part of that.

[Tryptamine]

4 hours ago, Bertz said:

Could be.  Anecdotally it feels like he's not executing that backdoor curveball to righties nearly as often. 

But yeah famous last words declaring a pitcher healthy, but I don't see anything off with him.  He's been struggling since 8/19, here are his pre-post numbers across a bunch of metrics

Fastball Velo - 93.3 / 93.3

In Zone Rate - 57.1 / 57.4

Chase Rate - 29.7 / 23.7

First Strike Rate - 69.2 / 63.6 (heavily skewed by yesterday, was 67% before that)

Zone Contact Rate - 85.1 / 85.0

Vertical Release Point - 5.49 / 5.52

Horizontal Release Point - 2.29 / 2.23

Extension - 6.4 / 6.4

Arm Angle - 25.2 / 25.4

Remarkably consistent aside from the chase numbers and the 1st strike numbers (which are probably due to the chase numbers).  Hitters have basically gone from chasing as much as Heliot Ramos to chasing as little as Michael Busch.  That's the issue, but I can't figure out what's causing that.  My suspicions would generally be sequencing or tipping.

If they can lock up the #1 WC seed, I'd like to see Boyd skipped or at least pushed back a few days. He has thrown way more innings then he has in the past and even his mental game could probably use a breather. 

[soccer10k]

12 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Highly doubt Tucker is done. He won’t play right field, but he can DH.

I know not every (or even most) calf injury turns into an Achillies, but if he's worried about that, it might not be worth the risk to him.

[Geographyhater8888]

21 hours ago, gflore34 said:

I think it best to assume Tucker is done, wouldn't be surprised if that's Craig' starting point as well.  Regarding your point above, I was thinking the same.  Yes, a healthy Tucker improves the lineup but, I do think the version of Tucker before IL stint is replaceable.  Does anyone know the status of Cassie?  Concussions are nothing to be taken lightly, I'm convinced a concussion effectively end the career of Andre Curbelo (Illini PG) and they've ended the careers of may others.  If healthy, is Cassie a possibility for the playoff roster?

Kyle Tucker at 80% is the difference between the first and second half production from the offense. it’s my fault for taking this long to be in the acceptance state that the early season Tucker magic will never return. Being better off without him, at 80% health is largely to blame for scoring at a clip of 4.05/game since the break.

Either way, 3 years in and they’re without a true elite slugging run producer has been and will continue an obstacle they’ve yet to really overcome. This team has as legitimate shot as anyone with Tucker at full health, now the bar has shifted to “get hit at the right time”. 

Edited September 19, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[17 Seconds]

22 hours ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

Idk they look dramatically better since he got IL’d. Don’t know what the numbers are but the watch-ability of the lineup is leagues better without him 

the cubs are not a better team without tucker, this is ridiculous

Edited September 19, 2025 by 17 Seconds

[Gjfificifjdej]

1 hour ago, 17 Seconds said:

the cubs are not a better team without tucker, this is ridiculous

I would agree if we were talking about April and May, maybe even June Kyle Tucker, but I really don’t care if post all star Tucker is playing or not. 

[17 Seconds]

3 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

I would agree if we were talking about April and May, maybe even June Kyle Tucker, but I really don’t care if post all star Tucker is playing or not. 

assuming you're getting bad tucker when he's been very good for several years doesn't really make sense to me

he's their best hitter, they are way better with him

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Gjfificifjdej said:

I would agree if we were talking about April and May, maybe even June Kyle Tucker, but I really don’t care if post all star Tucker is playing or not. 

Second half Kyle Tucker has a .375 OBP, what's your proposal to do better than in right field?