Cubs (Horton) vs Pirates (Skenes): 9/16/25, 5:40pm

[Brandon Glick]

Well, this is a fun pitching matchup.

[CubinNY]

Appointment viewing. 

[muntjack]

Excited for this one.  Skenes is 1 of 1 but is facing the better lineup. 

[KCCub]

(Bracket watching) Don't chastise me for this, but at this point we probably just want the Brewers to win enough to stay ahead of Philly right? They do hold the tie breaker over them. Would love a shot at the Brewers in the second round vs playing at Philly if we're the victors over SDP. 

[soccer10k]

Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I believe the Cubs clinch a playoff spot today if they win, Arizona beats SF and St Louis beats Cincy.

A Cubs win would mean at worst they would go 87-75. Ari, SF and Cincy all have 75 losses but we have the tiebreaker over Ari. SF has the tiebreaker and Cincy would if we ended up tied since that would mean they sweep our upcoming series.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, KCCub said:

(Bracket watching) Don't chastise me for this, but at this point we probably just want the Brewers to win enough to stay ahead of Philly right? They do hold the tie breaker over them. Would love a shot at the Brewers in the second round vs playing at Philly if we're the victors over SDP. 

I agree with you. Also, one step more, I want the Dodgers to hold off the Padres. Cubs best path, IMO, is SD then Brewers. Take our chances with Phillies or Dodgers in the NLCS. 

[mul21]

14 minutes ago, KCCub said:

(Bracket watching) Don't chastise me for this, but at this point we probably just want the Brewers to win enough to stay ahead of Philly right? They do hold the tie breaker over them. Would love a shot at the Brewers in the second round vs playing at Philly if we're the victors over SDP. 

Agreed.  I'd much rather have a path of Padres and Brewers to the NLCS than Dodgers and/or Phillies even down a pitcher.

[Outshined_One]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Agreed.  I'd much rather have a path of Padres and Brewers to the NLCS than Dodgers and/or Phillies even down a pitcher.

I feel oddly comfortable about a Cubs/Dodgers matchup.  The Dodgers are top-heavy in the rotation and lineup, with Ohtani and Yamamoto both having fantastic seasons, but they've struggled badly with injuries and their depth is suspect.  They're kinda Cubs-like in that they seem to go hot/cold, which usually is a recipe for trouble in the playoffs.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are stacked and ready for a deep run, assuming their bullpen holds up.

[Rex Buckingham]

I don't want to see the Phillies before the NLCS, because I'm pretty sure Schwarber will dong the Cubs into oblivion in the NLDS based on nothing other than the 2015 NLDS

[Bertz]

I would say broadly the better a team is the shorter a series you want to see them in.  So I think we should be rooting for the Phillies in the DS and the Brewers in the CS.

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would say broadly the better a team is the shorter a series you want to see them in.  So I think we should be rooting for the Phillies in the DS and the Brewers in the CS.

I disagree. I would rather face the Phillies when maybe their rotation isn’t stacked EXACTLY how they want it. And, also, maybe they get beat before us. I get your broader point, but in the case of the Phillies who can start with 3 lefties right away, I don’t agree. I honestly don’t think the Cubs would beat the Phillies, so I would rather push them to the NLCS and maybe someone else beats them. 🤷 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

I feel oddly comfortable about a Cubs/Dodgers matchup.  The Dodgers are top-heavy in the rotation and lineup, with Ohtani and Yamamoto both having fantastic seasons, but they've struggled badly with injuries and their depth is suspect.  They're kinda Cubs-like in that they seem to go hot/cold, which usually is a recipe for trouble in the playoffs.

The Phillies, on the other hand, are stacked and ready for a deep run, assuming their bullpen holds up.

Dodgers would be ok, but I like the Padres match up better. Padres don’t hit lefties particularly well, don’t hit homers and will start all right handed pitching. Dodgers do have Snell(if heathy)!plus some good rotation pitchers (if healthy). Cubs can beat them, but I like the chances against the Padres more. Ideal would be SD, Milw, then LA. 

[Andy]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I disagree. I would rather face the Phillies when maybe their rotation isn’t stacked EXACTLY how they want it. And, also, maybe they get beat before us. I get your broader point, but in the case of the Phillies who can start with 3 lefties right away, I don’t agree. I honestly don’t think the Cubs would beat the Phillies, so I would rather push them to the NLCS and maybe someone else beats them. 🤷 

I agree, feels like avoiding lefty-stacked rotations as long as possible would be the best situation.

[squally1313]

I swear I'm not trying to do the thing I normally do, but I've got the Cubs with a 105 wRC against LHP since July 1 and a 100 wRC against RHP over that time frame. For the year it's 106 vs 110. Am I doing the stats wrong in terms of these supposed struggles against LHP?

[I owned a Suzuki]

I hope the Dbacks or Giants sneak in. Not only would that probably leave the Mets out, it would be 2 yrs in a row that a seller at the deadline made it.

 

[Bertz]

16 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I swear I'm not trying to do the thing I normally do, but I've got the Cubs with a 105 wRC against LHP since July 1 and a 100 wRC against RHP over that time frame. For the year it's 106 vs 110. Am I doing the stats wrong in terms of these supposed struggles against LHP?

This is hilarious.  Looks like Statcast backs it up too.  Amazing.

[squally1313]

I mean, FG has Sanchez, Luzurdo, and Suarez all as top 10 pitchers this year (and Wheeler 11th), so I understand the desire to avoid facing them from a 'avoid facing good pitchers' point of view. But should we be extending this concern to LHPs in general?

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, KCCub said:

(Bracket watching) Don't chastise me for this, but at this point we probably just want the Brewers to win enough to stay ahead of Philly right? They do hold the tie breaker over them. Would love a shot at the Brewers in the second round vs playing at Philly if we're the victors over SDP. 

Dont chastise me for this, but I'm a ninny and want to avoid the possibility of losing a playoff series to the Brewers.  I was completely fine with facing the Cardinals in 2015 even though I still hate them more, but for some reason can't handle the idea of losing to the Brewers.  

It's inarguable that it's the preferable matchup though over the Phillies.  They're are a tough matchup for us.

Edited September 16, 2025 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I swear I'm not trying to do the thing I normally do, but I've got the Cubs with a 105 wRC against LHP since July 1 and a 100 wRC against RHP over that time frame. For the year it's 106 vs 110. Am I doing the stats wrong in terms of these supposed struggles against LHP?

I was saying this back when PCA, Tucker and Busch were still good.  We weren't as good earlier in the year against LHP but we were still good/above average vs. LHP. 

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I was saying this back when PCA, Tucker and Busch were still good.  We weren't as good earlier in the year against LHP but we were still good/above average vs. LHP. 

You could run out the following lineup against an LHP (with the YTD wRC against LHP)

1. Hoerner (167 wRC)
2. Tucker (137 wRC)
3. Suzuki (130 wRC)
4. Swanson (127 wRC)
5. Kelly (118 wRC)
6. Turner (113 wRC)
7. Shaw (102 wRC)
8. Happ (93 wRC)
9. PCA/Castro (59 wRC/108 wRC)

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

You could run out the following lineup against an LHP (with the YTD wRC against LHP)

1. Hoerner (167 wRC)
2. Tucker (137 wRC)
3. Suzuki (130 wRC)
4. Swanson (127 wRC)
5. Kelly (118 wRC)
6. Turner (113 wRC)
7. Shaw (102 wRC)
8. Happ (93 wRC)
9. PCA/Castro (59 wRC/108 wRC)

Second half (since 7/1) wRCs, just for fun:

1. Hoerner (173)
2. Tucker (130)
3. Suzuki (68)
4. Swanson (150)
5. Kelly (135)
6. Turner (145) (Busch 128!)
7. Shaw (117)
8. Happ (85)
9. PCA (54)/Castro (-41 in 15 PAs)

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Second half (since 7/1) wRCs, just for fun:

1. Hoerner (173)
2. Tucker (130)
3. Suzuki (68)
4. Swanson (150)
5. Kelly (135)
6. Turner (145) (Busch 128!)
7. Shaw (117)
8. Happ (85)
9. PCA (54)/Castro (-41 in 15 PAs)

You make a good case. But I would still rather see Busch in the line up against Peralta, Woodruff and whoever else they decide to throw, than Turner against Sanchez, Suarez and Luzardo. I like Happ from the left side better as well and also like PCA against righty pitching. I just think, as a whole, the Phillies are a rougher match up for the Cubs. I would rather someone else beat them. 

[squally1313]

37 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

You make a good case. But I would still rather see Busch in the line up against Peralta, Woodruff and whoever else they decide to throw, than Turner against Sanchez, Suarez and Luzardo. I like Happ from the left side better as well and also like PCA against righty pitching. I just think, as a whole, the Phillies are a rougher match up for the Cubs. I would rather someone else beat them. 

I get that, and probably don't disagree, but I still think it's ultimately because the Phillies pitchers are just better. You cite Busch (27 points better over Turner's 113), Happ (33 points better), and PCA (26 points better vs Castro's 108), but Swanson is 34 points better against LHP, Hoerner 71 points better, Suzuki 17 points better, Shaw 18 points better. Tucker (138/140), Kelly (118/123) are pretty even. You lose some defense with Turner and Castro for sure, but we've got some serious talent against LHP.

The Brewers v Phillies thing is interesting because I agree that the Phillies are just the better team, despite what the record shows you. But if you're going to go that route....I don't know, Ohtani/Betts/Freeman and then Yamamoto/Ohtani/Glasnow/Snell is pretty hard to beat! I know they aren't an option for the second round, but I'd really like to avoid them in round 1. 

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I get that, and probably don't disagree, but I still think it's ultimately because the Phillies pitchers are just better. You cite Busch (27 points better over Turner's 113), Happ (33 points better), and PCA (26 points better vs Castro's 108), but Swanson is 34 points better against LHP, Hoerner 71 points better, Suzuki 17 points better, Shaw 18 points better. Tucker (138/140), Kelly (118/123) are pretty even. You lose some defense with Turner and Castro for sure, but we've got some serious talent against LHP.

The Brewers v Phillies thing is interesting because I agree that the Phillies are just the better team, despite what the record shows you. But if you're going to go that route....I don't know, Ohtani/Betts/Freeman and then Yamamoto/Ohtani/Glasnow/Snell is pretty hard to beat! I know they aren't an option for the second round, but I'd really like to avoid them in round 1. 

I agree with you on hoping SD stays as our WC opponent. I said that too. To me best path is SD then Brewers. Take our chance in the NLCS against either Phillies or Dodgers. Phillies are better than the Brewers and a harder match up. Really hope the Brewers hold on. (Or completely tank and go 2-10 while Cubs go 7-5). But that is doubtful. 

[Derwood]

It's a shame this isn't on national TV. Gonna have to dig for a stream