Cubs (Horton) vs Pirates (Skenes): 9/16/25, 5:40pm

[squally1313]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

Good. I’m guessing the late inning pen arms will be used as often as needed without any limitations too?

Wild card series will be a little tricky with three games in three days but if we can get through that you can lean on them a lot more. 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

What do think his pitch count will be?

I assume you mean Horton. I doubt there is a "pitch count". I do think the goal will be for almost any SP "give me your best 5 innings". The playoffs are a time period in which games are won and lost, many times, through the BP. So I would expect a short leash on all arms to get to favorable BP matchups.

[Geographyhater8888]

10 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Wild card series will be a little tricky with three games in three days but if we can get through that you can lean on them a lot more. 

In an elimination series you pull out all stops. Don’t know what their splits are on limited rest though, or if it’ll matter .There’s a lot of variables to consider. 

Edited September 17, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Bertz]

Adding Laureano helped balance things, but all things equal you'd much rather throw lefties at the Padres.  Don't overthink it, go Boyd/Imanaga and then Horton.

If the Brewers are indeed the DS opponent I feel pretty comfortable with Taillon in game 1.  Fangraphs wrote an article last week that I thought did a really interesting job of laying out how the Milwaukee offense is so successful

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-will-the-brewers-do-if-theres-no-meatwaste/

Among our starters, Taillon is the lowest Meatwaste guy (which I think checks out intuitively)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=5|31|32|33|34|36|37|38|39|&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=112|&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc#results

The Phillies are a little tougher.  Taillon seems like red meat for Schwarber and Harper.  I'd be tempted to try and float one of the lefties through to start game 1, but that's probably playing with fire.

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Adding Laureano helped balance things, but all things equal you'd much rather throw lefties at the Padres.  Don't overthink it, go Boyd/Imanaga and then Horton.

If the Brewers are indeed the DS opponent I feel pretty comfortable with Taillon in game 1.  Fangraphs wrote an article last week that I thought did a really interesting job of laying out how the Milwaukee offense is so successful

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-will-the-brewers-do-if-theres-no-meatwaste/

Among our starters, Taillon is the lowest Meatwaste guy (which I think checks out intuitively)

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&hfAB=&hfGT=R|&hfPR=&hfZ=&hfStadium=&hfBBL=&hfNewZones=5|31|32|33|34|36|37|38|39|&hfPull=&hfC=&hfSea=2025|&hfSit=&player_type=pitcher&hfOuts=&hfOpponent=&pitcher_throws=&batter_stands=&hfSA=&game_date_gt=&game_date_lt=&hfMo=&hfTeam=112|&home_road=&hfRO=&position=&hfInfield=&hfOutfield=&hfInn=&hfBBT=&hfFlag=&metric_1=&group_by=name&min_pitches=0&min_results=0&min_pas=0&sort_col=pitches&player_event_sort=api_p_release_speed&sort_order=desc#results

The Phillies are a little tougher.  Taillon seems like red meat for Schwarber and Harper.  I'd be tempted to try and float one of the lefties through to start game 1, but that's probably playing with fire.

Well if they won game 1 they can go Horton for game 2 and hope they can start a lefty in a Phillies series. My hope is the Phillies are not the next opponent, provided we get past the Padres. 

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I want as many pitchers as possible, honestly. Among starters with at least 110 innings (to include Horton), our three theoretical playoff starters rank 52nd, 66th, and 78th in xFIP. They've gotten us to the playoffs, but they aren't Good. Boyd, for example, goes 3.77/4.16/4.80/7.76 in xFIP when looking at times through the order. Shota is pretty neutral but has yet to get past three times through the order. I'd be totally fine with the game plan being 18 batters at most for the starters, which leaves 15-20 for the pen guys each game. Besides, who is Santana or Ballesteros pinch hitting for? 

I think they will have 12 pitchers and Hamilton makes the roster for pinch running and maybe playing centerfield if late in a game PCA gets pinch hit for against a rough lefty. As for the last spot between Santana and Ballesteros, I would love to see Ballesteros, but I think it will be Santana. In the event of weird circumstances that puts them in a position to pinch hit Turner for Busch, (I know people hate this scenario, but it happens) they would still have Santana if he is then needed to pinch hit for Turner later. Or they have him to play defense late in a game, instead of Turner. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think they will have 12 pitchers and Hamilton makes the roster for pinch running and maybe playing centerfield if late in a game PCA gets pinch hit for against a rough lefty. As for the last spot between Santana and Ballesteros, I would love to see Ballesteros, but I think it will be Santana. In the event of weird circumstances that puts them in a position to pinch hit Turner for Busch, (I know people hate this scenario, but it happens) they would still have Santana if he is then needed to pinch hit for Turner later. Or they have him to play defense late in a game, instead of Turner. 

We're not nervous about Hamilton being 34 years old and having had 2 minor league PAs total in the last two years? Just going to stick him in CF?

I generally agree with Santana over Ballesteros for the reasons you laid out. Busch is bad enough against LHP and Turner is bad enough against RHP that you want to avoid any late game situation where that comes out and Santana lets you. It would have been nice to see a little more of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki in CF, or someone besides Turner and Busch at first, just to give them a little flexibility around the extreme cases. 

[Geographyhater8888]

Any update on Tucker? 

[squally1313]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

Any update on Tucker? 

See todays thread

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

We're not nervous about Hamilton being 34 years old and having had 2 minor league PAs total in the last two years? Just going to stick him in CF?

I generally agree with Santana over Ballesteros for the reasons you laid out. Busch is bad enough against LHP and Turner is bad enough against RHP that you want to avoid any late game situation where that comes out and Santana lets you. It would have been nice to see a little more of Happ, Tucker, Suzuki in CF, or someone besides Turner and Busch at first, just to give them a little flexibility around the extreme cases. 

I don’t love the Hamilton idea either. But they did sign him. So why? If not to pinch run in the playoffs, why? Maybe he doesn’t go in and play center if they PH for PCA. But I think they will put him on the roster. That is why I think they will go with 5 bench guys. 
Now, maybe between the time they signed Hamilton and now, Ballesteros has shown enough and Tucker’s injury concerns will change their mind. Maybe Moises takes the 5th spot as insurance for Tucker. 

Edited September 17, 2025 by Rcal10

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I just used Taillon as an example. Point is they do not need 13 pitchers. They do not need a 10 man pen. If they like Taillon out of the pen over Soroka, Rea, Assad, or Civelli I have no issues with that. But I do think the bench will be 5 deep. Castro and either Amaya or Mcquire are definite. Then they choose betweeen Turner(who is pretty much definite, to me), Santana, Ballesteros and Hamilton. 🤷 Am I missing someone? 

Nope, those are your bench choices..

My question was just that since the bench isn't really called upon much now with the DH, could they just go with a couple speed guys like Castro and Hamilton along with a Catcher and RH bat (Turner) if Counsell sits Busch against a lefty starter?  If they choose a 5 man bench then guessing it'll be between McGuire LH  Ballesteros LH or Santana SH  🤷‍♂️