Cubs (Horton) vs White Sox (Civale): 7/26/25, 6:10pm

[Brandon Glick]

Oh boy. Can't wait for the first game of the Crosstown Classic. It's a shame that yesterday's game had to get postponed for eternity.

[Derwood]

I hope Cade was taking notes last night about what happens to center cut fastballs in this park

[gflore34]

A cursory look at Civale' statistics suggests the Cubs should be able to put up quite a few runs on the scoreboard tonight.  I really hope Counsell learned you gain nothing from playing Brujan last night, left handed bat notwithstanding.  

[Derwood]

Sox have scored 61 runs in their last 7 games and improved their season RD by 35 runs

[Dfan25]

 

[BigSlick]

I demand the cubs go on an extended heater 

[Derwood]

33 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

 

Consistent!

[Geographyhater8888]

Game 104 vs game 2 of the whitesox World Series. Don’t embarrass us again tonight, if the weather allows a game tonight.

Edited July 26, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Tangled Up in Plaid]

Doesn't look like any serious precip until 10.

[PeanutPunch33]

3 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

 

But he’s a switch hitter! 

[Derwood]

 

If ain't fixed, why break it?

Or something

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Dfan25 said:

 

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

Thanks Jason. 

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

And he has sucked. So there's that

[Irrelevant Dude]

57 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

Is the launch angle difference not significant?  Or could it explain some of the BABIP decrease?

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Is the launch angle difference not significant?  Or could it explain some of the BABIP decrease?

No. Not really. A slightly higher LA is a normal deviance. And his LA last year was 15.1, and he was great. What it does, however, is show that he isn't hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls, artificially inflating his hard hit and EV, or showing that his swing is ungodly different. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

No. Not really. A slightly higher LA is a normal deviance. And his LA last year was 15.1, and he was great. What it does, however, is show that he isn't hitting an abnormal amount of ground balls, artificially inflating his hard hit and EV, or showing that his swing is ungodly different. 

I assume that is an average launch angle though?  So how do we know if it is possibly being driven by the averaging of fly balls and ground balls with fewer line drives? Just looking for answers here, because concluding everything is fine and he is just unlucky after such an extended period of poor results doesn't sit well.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I assume that is an average launch angle though?  So how do we know if it is possibly being driven by the averaging of fly balls and ground balls with fewer line drives? Just looking for answers here, because concluding everything is fine and he is just unlucky after such an extended period of poor results doesn't sit well.

The creator of xwOBA, Jeff Simmonds, claims that LA stabilizes (in other words, eliminates randomness within the sample) after 70 events. Ian Happ, since June 1st, has 124 events. He is beyond the burden of proof of xwOBA by nearly an additional 50% and his xwOBA over that span is essentially, right in line with what he has done the last three seasons. 

Speaking logically, it wouldn't really make sense for it to be the case you are suggesting and Ian Happ still have better than career barrel%, because barrel% takes ideal LA into account as well. 

Between "it's just normal bad variance" and "maybe he has such a weird launch angle on this ground balls and fly balls that somehow his BABIP is really bad" the former is the far more likely and normal reason. Literally every year, across baseball, there are multiple  hitters have two months of bad luck, just like hitters can have two months of good luck. 

The more I dig into the data, the more it's almost assuredly that Ian Happ has been the recipient of poor variance for a while. If he continues to hit the ball the way he has, he will likely play in line with normal Ian Hap the remainder of the year.

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The creator of xwOBA, Jeff Simmonds, claims that LA stabilizes (in other words, eliminates randomness within the sample) after 70 events. Ian Happ, since June 1st, has 124 events. He is beyond the burden of proof of xwOBA by nearly an additional 50% and his xwOBA over that span is essentially, right in line with what he has done the last three seasons. 

Speaking logically, it wouldn't really make sense for it to be the case you are suggesting and Ian Happ still have better than career barrel%, because barrel% takes ideal LA into account as well. 

Between "it's just normal bad variance" and "maybe he has such a weird launch angle on this ground balls and fly balls that somehow his BABIP is really bad" the former is the far more likely and normal reason. Literally every year, across baseball, there are multiple  hitters have two months of bad luck, just like hitters can have two months of good luck. 

The more I dig into the data, the more it's almost assuredly that Ian Happ has been the recipient of poor variance for a while. If he continues to hit the ball the way he has, he will likely play in line with normal Ian Hap the remainder of the year.

Also, factor in Ian Happ, year after year has good and bad streaks. For the last 4 years he has been a guy who has very down periods and then periods where he carries a team. I know that has nothing to do with your POV. I am just reminding people we do this every damn year with Happ. I agree, he will be fine. And at the end of the year we will see the same 115-120 OPS+ we see every year from him. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Just win, jerks.

[Derwood]

What he may or may not do is a mystery. What is t a mystery is that his results have been very poor for a long time. 

[chibears55]

6 hours ago, Derwood said:

Sox have scored 61 runs in their last 7 games and improved their season RD by 35 runs

It all crashes tonight 😅

Edited July 26, 2025 by chibears55

[chibears55]

2 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Ian Happ since June 1st: 

EV: 89.5 (career 89.8)
Barrel%: 11.8% (career 10.3)
LA: 15.6 (career 13)
Hard hit%: 43.5% (career 41.2%)
Babip: .189 (career .307)

One of these things is not like the other...

Slice it up any way you want but bottom line is that Ian Happ just hasn't been producing and getting positive results for 4 months of baseball despite all the metrics that out there.

We've been talking about how well he has made contact every month for 4 months straight because of those numbers but yet every month for 4 months his results has been going down. So maybe, hopefully for the cubs sake, he'll actually start getting some positive results the final two months and into the postseason cause they could really use him now. 

Edited July 26, 2025 by chibears55

[chibears55]

46 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Also, factor in Ian Happ, year after year has good and bad streaks. For the last 4 years he has been a guy who has very down periods and then periods where he carries a team. I know that has nothing to do with your POV. I am just reminding people we do this every damn year with Happ. I agree, he will be fine. And at the end of the year we will see the same 115-120 OPS+ we see every year from him. 

Not arguing just curious, over the last couple seasons has his ops+ been as low as it is now at the end of July to where he has heated up in the final 2 months to raise it to 115-120 ?

Or is this his lowest ever at this point in the season?