Bagent exposure in primetime, Bears are 10 point dogs to Chargers

[gflore34]

16 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's fascinating to me how much "Bust QBs put it together for a second team" just isn't really a thing.  Alex Smith hung around the 49ers forever, started to be ok, then went to KC and was pretty good.  Before that you have to go back to like Steve Young?


 

 

Fields problems will show up where ever he ends up, sure, say, Atlanta may design more plays to his strengths.  However, the issues with quick reads, processing are fundamental flaws that are going to keep him from being a good NFL QB.

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

The groundhogs day phenomenon tells us he won’t turn his career around elsewhere. 

tough, but fair

 

[Outshined_One]

Admittedly, I thought Trubisky was going to have a career rebound when he landed in Pittsburgh.

Whoopsie.

[raw]

So, this seems to suggest that Fields is not only really good at the quick game, but the best EPA in the league. Just doesn't do it nearly enough. 

https://x.com/throwthedamball/status/1716994256017977452?s=20

[Hairyducked Idiot]

5 minutes ago, raw said:

So, this seems to suggest that Fields is not only really good at the quick game, but the best EPA in the league. Just doesn't do it nearly enough. 

https://x.com/throwthedamball/status/1716994256017977452?s=20

Yeah, this is one of those things that keeps popping up in statistical analysis. I see it a lot in hockey.

Player is really bad at X.  Player only succesfully executes X in situations where the other team is doing something that makes X easy to accomplish because X is a suboptimal strategy in that moment.  Stats say Player is *really* good at X.

There's a lot of terrible defensive hockey players out there with fantastic defensive scores on their JFresh charts because their teams try very hard not to put them in difficult defensive situations.

[Rex Buckingham]

5 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's fascinating to me how much "Bust QBs put it together for a second team" just isn't really a thing.  Alex Smith hung around the 49ers forever, started to be ok, then went to KC and was pretty good.  Before that you have to go back to like Steve Young?


 

 

Favre is a pretty notable example of success with a 2nd team, but i guess he wasn't really a bust with the Falcons.

[BigSlick]

The only ex-Bears QB that went on to have a successful career with another team that I can think of is Kyle Orton and even then it was like, a couple OK years in Denver. (Certainly not enough to make one regret the trade for Cutler) 

I’m really starting to lean into the Nature on the Nature v Nurture debate about QB development. The guy is either good or not and it’s unlikely you can ruin them with poor development.

 

I don’t think the Bears have bad QB play because they’ve coached QBs poorly (though I think they have) but mainly because they’ve scouted QB prospects really badly 

Edited October 26, 2023 by BigSlick

[UMFan83]

35 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

The only ex-Bears QB that went on to have a successful career with another team that I can think of is Kyle Orton and even then it was like, a couple OK years in Denver. (Certainly not enough to make one regret the trade for Cutler) 

I’m really starting to lean into the Nature on the Nature v Nurture debate about QB development. The guy is either good or not and it’s unlikely you can ruin them with poor development.

 

I don’t think the Bears have bad QB play because they’ve coached QBs poorly (though I think they have) but mainly because they’ve scouted QB prospects really badly 

Jim Harbaugh and Doug Flutie, though Flutie's case was really strange and involved a decade in the CFL.  But Harbaugh went from the Bears to the Colts and took them to the AFC title game right away I think.

But yeah with Nature vs. Nurture.  Even if you subscribed to the theory that a poorly developed QB can not be rehabilitated after the botched development, there would have to be at least a couple of outliers that managed to succeed with their 2nd team (a combo of being on a team that just completely botched his development and going to a team that was the perfect fit for him)and there really isn't

Edited October 26, 2023 by UMFan83

[raw]

I don't think any of the examples named are really good examples of what Fields would be trying to do on a 2nd team.

Favre- 1 year, 0 starts for Atlanta

Harbaugh- was a 7 year vet with 65 starts by the time he went to Indianapolis

Steve Young- had 19 starts in Tampa, but then sat for 4 years in SF

Orton- had 33 starts as a Bear, he wasn't very good, but did win 21 of those starts. He lost 21 of his 33 Denver starts

Flutie- only 1 Bears start, 13 in a couple years in NE, then a 9 year break between starts in his prime

Smith- 75 starts in SF, 76 in KC.

I thought of guys like Hasselbeck (didn't flame out in GB), Geno Smith (sat on bench, then broke out 8 years later), and Sam Bradford (never really all that good)

Brees is an interesting comparison, but he turned the corner in Year 4 still in San Diego. And the shoulder was a big reason he was let go. The equivalent would be the Bears taking Caleb (then trading him to the team that takes Drake Maye), sitting the rookie, while keeping Fields next year when he finally breaks out.

[BigbadB]

Your comparison is Dan Fouts, who finally turned it around in his 6th year, then flourished starting in his 7th year. I'm thinking Fields doesn't get that much time to show us what he's got. LOL.

Fields just needs me to be his coach. My fantasy team was 6-0 while Fields was my starter. My team lost this week with Fields out. Just gotta know how to use him. Oh, and put better players around him.

[jersey cubs fan]

8 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

But yeah with Nature vs. Nurture.  Even if you subscribed to the theory that a poorly developed QB can not be rehabilitated after the botched development, there would have to be at least a couple of outliers that managed to succeed with their 2nd team (a combo of being on a team that just completely botched his development and going to a team that was the perfect fit for him)and there really isn't

How does Steve young not fit this?

 

its mind boggling to me that some people think QBs just come into league and succeed or fail based on their own abilities. It’s a really silly theory that flies in the face of so many examples. 

[jumbo]

9 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Jim Harbaugh and Doug Flutie, though Flutie's case was really strange and involved a decade in the CFL.  But Harbaugh went from the Bears to the Colts and took them to the AFC title game right away I think.

But yeah with Nature vs. Nurture.  Even if you subscribed to the theory that a poorly developed QB can not be rehabilitated after the botched development, there would have to be at least a couple of outliers that managed to succeed with their 2nd team (a combo of being on a team that just completely botched his development and going to a team that was the perfect fit for him)and there really isn't

I agree with both your and Big Slick comments. I think Fields would likely be better almost anywhere else, but he is what he is. If he was amazing he'd be hitting the open guys when they're open and he's just not doing it. That's just who he is, and who he was at OSU where he had elite & superior talent to the competition. 

When hiring I only pay attention to "have they done it before?" versus "could they do this?" 

It's pretty easy to make the mistake of projection and envision someone learning something unique to what you do or different from what they've done in the past because you did it yourself or someone else did it. Most of the time, that "reinvention" you're projecting doesn't happen and the person is only so effective, and usually a disappointment compared to an unfair expectation. 

[gflore34]

24 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

How does Steve young not fit this?

 

its mind boggling to me that some people think QBs just come into league and succeed or fail based on their own abilities. It’s a really silly theory that flies in the face of so many examples. 

Holding on to ball too long, the inability to recognize a defense or not trusting what he sees, the Bears didn't coach any of these traits into Fields.

[minnesotacubsfan]

9 hours ago, BigSlick said:

The only ex-Bears QB that went on to have a successful career with another team that I can think of is Kyle Orton and even then it was like, a couple OK years in Denver. (Certainly not enough to make one regret the trade for Cutler) 

I’m really starting to lean into the Nature on the Nature v Nurture debate about QB development. The guy is either good or not and it’s unlikely you can ruin them with poor development.

 

I don’t think the Bears have bad QB play because they’ve coached QBs poorly (though I think they have) but mainly because they’ve scouted QB prospects really badly 

Bobby Layne and George Blanda are the most notable ones, although it was a world ago

[CubinNY]

I agree with Goony. Most QBs don't come into the league and are finished products. The ones that succeed are brought into an environment where they can succeed. Starting NFL QB is not an immutable trait. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

There are a lot more great QBs who went into terrible environments and turned the environment around than there are great QBs who came into a bad environment, failed, then succeeded later in a good environment.

 

It's a feedback circle.  When a QB comes in and does well, the coaches look smart, the support players put up better stats, everyone says "oh he had a great environment."

 

When a QB sucks, the coaches look like idiots, the offensive line gets blamed, the support cast sees their stats fall apart. "Oh no one could succeed in that environment."

Edited October 26, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Brian707]

The main point is probably 75% of QBs drafted in the first round end up being busts.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, Brian707 said:

The main point is probably 75% of QBs drafted in the first round end up being busts.

And yet you have to have a good QB, the first round is still the best place to get one.

QB Hell is real and all you can do is keep spinning the wheel 

[Outshined_One]

1 hour ago, Brian707 said:

The main point is probably 75% of QBs drafted in the first round end up being busts.

That number gets higher the further into the draft you get. Yes, there are exceptions, but you're more likely to find a good QB in the first than in any other round. The only difference is the first round busts are higher profile than others; otherwise, no one cares at the national level if a 5th round QB never sees an NFL snap.

[minnesotacubsfan]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

And yet you have to have a good QB, the first round is still the best place to get one.

QB Hell is real and all you can do is keep spinning the wheel 

no, thats not all you can do. You can draft dependable tackles, you can sign legit WR and TE options, you can do a lot to support the 1st rd qb

 

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, minnesotacubsfan said:

no, thats not all you can do. You can draft dependable tackles, you can sign legit WR and TE options, you can do a lot to support the 1st rd qb

 

 

Fields has a $50m te, a top wr, we just drafted a dependable tackle and he's still been struggling to pass 60 yards passing by the third quarter consistently 

[BigbadB]

17 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Fields has a $50m te, a top wr, we just drafted a dependable tackle and he's still been struggling to pass 60 yards passing by the third quarter consistently 

Defenses and their coaching see what you are good and bad at, and attempt to make you do the bad things. It's up to the QB and his coaching staff to scheme to do the good things. If you can't do the good things on a consistent enough basis to be a good team, you are not long for the NFL. 

It's really that simple.

I've been a Justin Fields apologist, and I still don't think he's been given the right tools to be successful, but we aren't frustrated that he's only passing for 250 yards a game instead of 300, we are frustrated because he isn't even hitting `175 yards a game passing. He does seem to miss open windows while he's holding the ball. He does seem to take a lot of unnecessary sacks. He does fumble a lot even though he knows he's going to get hit. I really wish he was available for this Charger game. I would have liked to see what he can do against the 32nd ranked passing defense in the league. 

If he's going to secure a future, it has to be on his return. I'm growing more and more skeptical he can do it now.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Do any of the teams that look like sellers have a C that we should trade for?

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Do any of the teams that look like sellers have a C that we should trade for?

C is going to have to be 1 of the higher priorities in the draft. Luckily you can probably get 1 of the top 3 in the 3rd round. I'm not sure how I'd feel about using an early 2nd on the top ranked C unless they were a complete stud.

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

C is going to have to be 1 of the higher priorities in the draft. Luckily you can probably get 1 of the top 3 in the 3rd round. I'm not sure how I'd feel about using an early 2nd on the top ranked C unless they were a complete stud.

That's why I'd like to trade for an established one now