Bagent exposure in primetime, Bears are 10 point dogs to Chargers

[Hairyducked Idiot]

55 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

People were gushing over the Lawrence/Wilson/Lance/Fields class too IIRC and so far only Lawrence looks like a long term starter, and even he has been a bit underwhelming.  Quality starter but not sure if he's a HOF caliber QB.

There's 16 above-average starters in a 32-team league.  Let's say the average guy lasts 10 years (longer for the Mannings and Bradys, shorter for the Cam Newtons, so it averages out).

That means you're getting about one and a half above-average starters out of each NFL draft.  The average draft over the last decade has about 11 QBs taken.  That's a whole lot of busts.

[Derwood]

If Bagent has another semi-okay performance, then the excuses are gone for Fields. Same O-Line, same skill players, same play callers, but undrafted D2 guy can make it work while D1 Heisman Finalist can't?

[jersey cubs fan]

9 minutes ago, Derwood said:

If Bagent has another semi-okay performance, then the excuses are gone for Fields. Same O-Line, same skill players, same play callers, but undrafted D2 guy can make it work while D1 Heisman Finalist can't?

It’s not like Fields has never had back to back decent games. He just came off two quite good ones. 

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

It’s not like Fields has never had back to back decent games. He just came off two quite good ones. 

The bar has to be at the same height. The problem is no one is expecting Bagent to win games for the Bears and that's the expectation for Fields. At the same time, the general competence of Bagent to do the minimum is in contrast to Fields' deficiencies. 

[Brian707]

17 hours ago, Outshined_One said:

 

I also would accept "Bob from Elmwood Park" or "Fred in Antioch" as acceptable caller names.

Tony from Cicero: "Dat Bagent guy has some good bloodlines. His great grandfather killed 10 Natzis during the Battle of the Bulge. His father is a real life Sylvester Stallone from dat movie "Over the Top". He will lead us to the Super Bowl, just give him some time. Fields just doesn't have the determination needed, he is just lazy and a slow learner."

Edited October 24, 2023 by Brian707

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 hours ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

This looks a lot better than I expected.  I'm sorry, but I don't hate it. I really don't hate it. 

Obviously, you can't be a franchise QB if you can't throw more than 16 yards past the LOS, which he literally did not do all game.  And which he utterly failed at twice in the Vikings game.  And apparently it's so bad they have to bring in Captain Clipboard to throw his hail marys.  This sort of performance *only* works when your defense is having a good game and you're nursing a lead, which won't always be the case.

But if you just look at the throws he actually made on Sunday, I don't see a weak arm. He's got plenty of zip, he's not letting defenders close by throwing muffins.  

If you told me this was a former second-round pick with two years in the league, I'd believe it.  The execution on quick throws is immaculate, the ball placement is *really* good, the ability to work through his progressions is solid (he did turn down a couple of deeper throws that I think could have been made, but nobody's perfect).  Pause the video at 5:55 to see him already in his throwing motion while the receiver still has his back to him, the kind of anticipation throw we've been begging for.

He's completely unafraid to throw balls to a receiver's leverage even if the defender is right on their back, the elusive "NFL open."  Honestly I wouldn't hate it if he dialed that back a bit, there was one or two that he got in there but seemed awfully risky.

And he was completely fearless about calling checks and modifying plays at the line, and he was usually right when he did it.  

I don't like how little he incorporates the lower-half to make some of these throws. A lot of throws where he's standing still and flat-footed, feet barely separated. I think that should be cleaned up and he has to stop the fadeaway throws; those will lead to erratic accuracy and most likely, turnovers. It's pretty annoying how he does that. Like straight-up 100% arm throws.

 

I do give him credit though for going through the progressions and maneuvering to open up passing lanes. I think you have to credit him for his vision and there's some plays in there that he uses his eyes well to confuse defenders. It's also interesting how, as a rookie QB, usually they check down to the RB a thousand times - and if he had, there were 2 wheel routes that probably go for explosive plays, if not 6 points. Massive open fields. But he actually hung in the pocket and made solid throws in the middle of the field instead of defaulting to the safe throw.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Fields and Bagent are so different in terms of skills and weaknesses that it's difficult to make meaningful comparisons. It almost comes down to philosophical preference.

Fields has shown he's been capable of games where his explosive plays make up for his tendency toward negative plays and poor execution.   I literally don't think he's capable of executing the simplified, no-mistakes game plan that Bagent did.

[BigSlick]

The problem with Fields, obviously, is his floor for games is just way too goddamn low. You can’t have completely disaster games where the offense can’t function as frequently as he does. You can’t, regularly, fail to hit 150 yards passing. The bad games have to be salvaged, not turn into complete disasters, to at least be competitive. 
 

The floor, seemingly, with Bagent is higher. But the ceiling is probably….not very high at all.

[minnesotacubsfan]

3 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

 

The floor, seemingly, with Bagent is higher.

I dont think we've seen nearly enough from Bagent to make that claim.

[Brian707]

His floor is probably just below the Minnesota game, his ceiling was the Raiders game 

[BigSlick]

Yeah that’s all fair, my main takeaway is more Fields related : the floor can’t be that bad. QBs can and will have bad games, but you simply can’t be THAT bad when you’re bad 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

Yeah that’s all fair, my main takeaway is more Fields related : the floor can’t be that bad. QBs can and will have bad games, but you simply can’t be THAT bad when you’re bad 

it's the frequency, not the intensity of bad. 

[gflore34]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Fields and Bagent are so different in terms of skills and weaknesses that it's difficult to make meaningful comparisons. It almost comes down to philosophical preference.

Fields has shown he's been capable of games where his explosive plays make up for his tendency toward negative plays and poor execution.   I literally don't think he's capable of executing the simplified, no-mistakes game plan that Bagent did.

Regarding Fields is it the slowness of his delivery or the lack of mental aptitude?  With Fields I've gotten the impression he oftentimes has the mental part correct, we've seen examples where he's looking in the correct direction or appears to know where to go but, the ball doesn't come out.

Edited October 24, 2023 by gflore34

[raw]

Fields probably isn't capable of that same Bagent gameplan. But he also shouldn't be. You'd be completely neutering Fields with that type of gameplan, whereas that's all Bagent projects to be able to do. 

But yeah, there's the floor/ceiling thing with Fields. Vs. Washington, he passed for 120 yards more than Bagent last week, but also doubled his rushing total and his offense put up 17 more points. Then we saw pressure completely destroy what he wanted to do and they couldn't beat an otherwise mediocre defensive team that put up 12 offensive points. And as was said, the frequency that these type of games happen is the biggest issue.

But we also can't act like Bagent's style of play can consistently win you games at the NFL level. You have to be able to threaten the defense down the field. 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Fields is it the slowness of his delivery or the lack of mental aptitude?  With Fields I've gotten the impression he oftentimes has the mental part correct, we've seen examples where he's looking in the correct direction or appears to know where to go but, the ball doesn't come out.

It's hard to define, but he's not a confident QB. He lost his mojo and he ain't getting it back. Confidence comes with success, but some guys have it even when they aren't successful. Like Javy Baez before he got traded. Or a better example in football might be Brett Farve.

[raw]

7 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Fields is it the slowness of his delivery or the lack of mental aptitude?  With Fields I've gotten the impression he oftentimes has the mental part correct, we've seen examples where he's looking in the correct direction or appears to know where to go but, the ball doesn't come out.

He tested pretty well on mental aptitude tests. I think I read the best score ever, actually. But it does appear to be a mental thing with him. Like you said, he's not throwing to guys he knows are open. That says to my non-expert mind that he's thinking too much. Like it feels like fear of, "have I been staring at this too long and the DB gonna jump this throw?". 

[raw]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

It's hard to define, but he's not a confident QB. He lost his mojo and he ain't getting it back. Confidence comes with success, but some guys have it even when they aren't successful. Like Javy Baez before he got traded. Or a better example in football might be Brett Farve.

He was confident vs. Denver and Washington, though. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

16 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Regarding Fields is it the slowness of his delivery or the lack of mental aptitude?  With Fields I've gotten the impression he oftentimes has the mental part correct, we've seen examples where he's looking in the correct direction or appears to know where to go but, the ball doesn't come out.

It's both.  There are frequently times he looks like he knows the progressions.

But there is still tons of times where he blows up the play by not reading the defense.

I know I'm going to this video a lot but:

Basic hot read and the entire offensive line looks confused at fields as to why he didn't execute.

Two uncovered defenders to the left and at no point does fields consider either checking the play out of a pitch to the left or pulling and running his secondary option.

 

Edited October 24, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Hairyducked Idiot]

This should not be taken in any way as an endorsement of W-L as a QB stat, but just as one of my classic fun facts:

 

Bagent could lose four starts in a row and still have a higher career win percentage as a starter than Justin Fields 

[gflore34]

2 minutes ago, raw said:

He tested pretty well on mental aptitude tests. I think I read the best score ever, actually. But it does appear to be a mental thing with him. Like you said, he's not throwing to guys he knows are open. That says to my non-expert mind that he's thinking too much. Like it feels like fear of, "have I been staring at this too long and the DB gonna jump this throw?". 

When you've reached that point it's lost, sports is all about pull the trigger or not, nothing good ever comes of over thinking or hesitancy.

[gflore34]

14 minutes ago, raw said:

He was confident vs. Denver and Washington, though. 

After seeing some of the tape, he could have absolutely torched the Vikings, that's the frustrating part.  I wouldn't be surprised if Goff and the Lions light the blitzing Vikings up.

Edited October 24, 2023 by gflore34

[jersey cubs fan]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Bagent could lose four starts in a row and still have a higher career win percentage as a starter than Justin Fields 

Josh McDaniels could lose 45 games in a row and still have a better w% than Eberflus. 

[gflore34]

15 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's both.  There are frequently times he looks like he knows the progressions.

But there is still tons of times where he blows up the play by not reading the defense.

I know I'm going to this video a lot but:

 

Basic hot read and the entire offensive line looks confused at fields as to why he didn't execute.

Two uncovered defenders to the left and at no point does fields consider either checking the play out of a pitch to the left or pulling and running his secondary option.

 

I'd be willing to bet quite a bit that Justin knows/knew this as well, for whatever reason, cannot execute.  It could be, as some have said, a point of confidence, he's over thinking and doesn't trust what he sees, which, I guess, is another way of saying its a lack of confidence.

Edited October 24, 2023 by gflore34

[BigSlick]

I'm probably simply overreacting to the Vikings game, where even a mediocre or regular-bad game is an easy Bears win. I don't know that "mojo" can go away and never come back, I don't think thats true. But there are mental skills that great QBs have that isn't reducible to simply intelligence - we know Fields is a smart guy and can metabolize the offense in isolation. The truth is, at this point, 2 and a half years in the league, he cannot execute that consistently on the field at game speed, which someone like Mahomes can do effortlessly. 

 

The thing thats annoying is, and I must stress I am not saying Bagent has the makings of a starter or anything, but that he, (for one game that was actually pretty mediocre by the standards of the modern NFL) had that mental processing and quick-twitch responsiveness that we've longed for Fields to display. Even during his great games, its because he excels with his feet and in that intermediate and long distance passing when he's got time to throw.

Oh well. I just have to go through the phases of mourning with Fields, I guess. 

Edited October 24, 2023 by BigSlick

[raw]

Just going off of memory, it feels like Fields' issues come with static routes. He seems to play much more naturally when the routes are moving and not stop routes like curls, comebacks and guys sitting down vs zone coverage. Granted, he still misses open guys on the move, but I feel like he's better on crossing routes, go routes, corners, outs, etc. Slants he's had trouble with though. 

It feels like really simple stuff that he's not getting too, which is frustrating.