Glasnow...Now?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Glasnow starts to make more sense or less sense depending on other moves that happen around his acquisition.  He's a 1 year commitment and one that has significant injury risk, but the Cubs are fairly well positioned to handle that given their pitching depth and the need for his caliber of upside.  If you are using Free Agency to make significant gains in the offense and bullpen, and/or don't have to trade much of the MLB-ready pitching depth to fill other holes, then Glasnow works great.  If making other improvements requires trading 2 or more of Wesneski, Assad, Wicks, and Brown, then Glasnow becomes a riskier proposition.

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Glasnow starts to make more sense or less sense depending on other moves that happen around his acquisition.  He's a 1 year commitment and one that has significant injury risk, but the Cubs are fairly well positioned to handle that given their pitching depth and the need for his caliber of upside.  If you are using Free Agency to make significant gains in the offense and bullpen, and/or don't have to trade much of the MLB-ready pitching depth to fill other holes, then Glasnow works great.  If making other improvements requires trading 2 or more of Wesneski, Assad, Wicks, and Brown, then Glasnow becomes a riskier proposition.

Yeah I think my only concern with Glasnow is that at his salary doing him + Soto or especially him + Ohtani doesn’t look super realistic.

And yeah, I think the durability stuff with Glasnow is way overblown.  That said he's certainly you definitely want to have that full complement of young starters (or at least most of it) in tact to buttress him.

I'm not sure what to think about Bieber though.  The velo is way down from his prime, but still right in line with his 5ish win 2022.  He had a Barry elbow last year, so maybe that impacted the performance?  Though clearly a compromised elbow increases injury risk.  I think I would need a 2nd SP with Bieber.  Bieber and Imanaga or something like that.

 

[pitchcs]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think my only concern with Glasnow is that at his salary doing him + Soto or especially him + Ohtani doesn’t look super realistic.

And yeah, I think the durability stuff with Glasnow is way overblown.  That said he's certainly you definitely want to have that full complement of young starters (or at least most of it) in tact to buttress him.

I'm not sure what to think about Bieber though.  The velo is way down from his prime, but still right in line with his 5ish win 2022.  He had a Barry elbow last year, so maybe that impacted the performance?  Though clearly a compromised elbow increases injury risk.  I think I would need a 2nd SP with Bieber.  Bieber and Imanaga or something like that.

 

How is the durability stuff overblown?

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, pitchcs said:

How is the durability stuff overblown?

Midway through 2021 his elbow popped and he had that Tommy John, and in late 2022 he made his way back from it in a pretty normal 15ish month timeline.  Dragging him for his innings totals in both years is a bit of a double-jeopardy deal.  And his injury in 2019 was a forearm strain.  Those are usually precursors to a guy's elbow giving out.

Like he's not Tom Glavine by any stretch of the imagination, but most of his missed time in the majors was due to his elbow which has now been successfully reconstructed.

 

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Yeah I think my only concern with Glasnow is that at his salary doing him + Soto or especially him + Ohtani doesn’t look super realistic.

And yeah, I think the durability stuff with Glasnow is way overblown.  That said he's certainly you definitely want to have that full complement of young starters (or at least most of it) in tact to buttress him.

I'm not sure what to think about Bieber though.  The velo is way down from his prime, but still right in line with his 5ish win 2022.  He had a Barry elbow last year, so maybe that impacted the performance?  Though clearly a compromised elbow increases injury risk.  I think I would need a 2nd SP with Bieber.  Bieber and Imanaga or something like that.

 

I don’t think his salary lessens the chance of Soto or Ohtani. They are going to go over in 24 anyway. If anything, him coming now makes perfect sense if they also get Ohtani. Gkasnow pitches in 24’ and then Ohtani takes his spot in 25’ and his salary drops off. Same can be said for Bierber. 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Midway through 2021 his elbow popped and he had that Tommy John, and in late 2022 he made his way back from it in a pretty normal 15ish month timeline.  Dragging him for his innings totals in both years is a bit of a double-jeopardy deal.  And his injury in 2019 was a forearm strain.  Those are usually precursors to a guy's elbow giving out.

Like he's not Tom Glavine by any stretch of the imagination, but most of his missed time in the majors was due to his elbow which has now been successfully reconstructed.

 

since 2016 when he first broke into the majors he's thrown over 100 innings twice. Although, last year he managed to get in 120. So we can expect approximately half a season out of him. Not exactly lighting my fire. I don't really care how much money he makes, but he will cost talent. IMO, that's too big of a risk. 

[Cuzi]

17 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Seems redundant with Horton, no? Not that too much SP is a thing but they’re not short on a guy who can miss some bats as a starter with a workload catch

Wait. Are you asking if a MLB pitcher on a 1 year deal is redundant because of a AA prospect?

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

since 2016 when he first broke into the majors he's thrown over 100 innings twice. Although, last year he managed to get in 120. So we can expect approximately half a season out of him. Not exactly lighting my fire. I don't really care how much money he makes, but he will cost talent. IMO, that's too big of a risk. 

That's just not at all true.  

2016 - 140 IP (make sure you count his MiLB innings)

2017 - 155.1 IP (ditto)

2018 - 111.2 IP (worked as a reliever in Pitt because they were too dumb to figure him out)

2019 - 60.2 IP (forearm strain)

2020 - 57.1 IP (pandemic, this was actually a full set of starts)

2021 - 88 IP (TJ)

2022 - 13.2 IP (TJ)

2023 - 120 IP (hamstring)

Again he's not Old Ross Hadbourn but more or less he's had 3 injuries of note in his career, with 2 of those tied to his elbow.  

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

That's just not at all true.  

2016 - 140 IP (make sure you count his MiLB innings)

2017 - 155.1 IP (ditto)

2018 - 111.2 IP (worked as a reliever in Pitt because they were too dumb to figure him out)

2019 - 60.2 IP (forearm strain)

2020 - 57.1 IP (pandemic, this was actually a full set of starts)

2021 - 88 IP (TJ)

2022 - 13.2 IP (TJ)

2023 - 120 IP (hamstring)

Again he's not Old Ross Hadbourn but more or less he's had 3 injuries of note in his career, with 2 of those tied to his elbow.  

you can slice it any way you want to. Since 2018 then and only once. Again, we can expect about 1/2 season from him. As long as they build on that potentiality, ok fine. I think people are juiced about getting him because the Cubs don't have a guy like him right now. But he can't pitch from the IR list. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by CubinNY

[Rex Buckingham]

Shoot, if they can get Glasnow, I'd just pencil Horton in to take over when he is hurt. Maybe the injury risk and $$ considerations make it so TB takes lesser guys like a Keegan Thompson/Kohl Franklin type of package

[Cubs70]

If you can get him cheap, I mean real cheap, then yes. Otherwise I'd pass. Too many times on the IL

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think there's any sourced rumors he's as available as Glasnow, and certainly not as a combo in anything I've seen, but I'm curious what the price tag for Glasnow + Brandon Lowe would be.  Lowe has one guaranteed year, has had injury struggles and regressed a bit offensively, which potentially could make him a trade option for the Rays given his 8.75 million salary and their org depth.  From the Cubs perspective he's a LHH bat who we can comfortably say is going to be a good hitter(Steamer says 118 wRC+), he could pretty conceivably be tried as a 3B given his 2B play(and at a minimum is a solid 1B/DH option), and he has team options beyond this year where he could be useful given they are only minor increases over his 9.75 LT number this year.  The main downside would be availability(174 games the last 2 years), and that Glasnow + Lowe eats up a big enough chunk of money without getting a big bat that you might be forced to compromise further down the wishlist, and potentially even at the top of that list(e.g. Soto) to fit things in.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Didn't the rays want mlb ready pitching for glasnow? How does that make any sense, wouldn't teams that want to trade for him have that interest because they don't have any mlb ready pitching of their own? 

 

With all the question marks around glasnow with his health I'd rather they stay away from him. Just spend that 25 mil on Yamamoto over 9 years. But then again, hoyer is afraid of the big year deals. So I see why the Cubs have been linked to numerous trade targets with 1-2 years of control. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Didn't the rays want mlb ready pitching for glasnow? How does that make any sense, wouldn't teams that want to trade for him have that interest because they don't have any mlb ready pitching of their own? 

 

With all the question marks around glasnow with his health I'd rather they stay away from him. Just spend that 25 mil on Yamamoto over 9 years. But then again, hoyer is afraid of the big year deals. So I see why the Cubs have been linked to numerous trade targets with 1-2 years of control. 

The problem with the long term contract is “if” they signed Ohtani or traded for Soto and extended him and then paid a pitcher $25M for 5 to 9 years they would have some real problems with their payroll for years. I think what makes Glasnow or other guys on their last year of a deal more interesting is the Cubs don’t have to tie up their payroll for years. And if Ohtani was signed he could just takes Glasnow’s space in 25’. Sure I would rather just sign Yamamoto, but Ricketts isn’t going to always be over the LT. 

[KCCub]

24 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Didn't the rays want mlb ready pitching for glasnow? How does that make any sense, wouldn't teams that want to trade for him have that interest because they don't have any mlb ready pitching of their own?

Just look at the Cubs as the example where it makes sense. The Cubs need a TORP and have plenty of young pitching depth. Thompson and Wesneski are the names that most think would be involved. It would give the Rays salary relief plus a cost controlled young SP that they can work their magic on. The Cubs trade from their depth and fill the need at the top of their rotation. 

[Tryptamine]

34 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Didn't the rays want mlb ready pitching for glasnow? How does that make any sense, wouldn't teams that want to trade for him have that interest because they don't have any mlb ready pitching of their own? 

 

With all the question marks around glasnow with his health I'd rather they stay away from him. Just spend that 25 mil on Yamamoto over 9 years. But then again, hoyer is afraid of the big year deals. So I see why the Cubs have been linked to numerous trade targets with 1-2 years of control. 

If the MLB ready pitcher is named Caleb Killian, I'm completely cool with that. I'm not even sure I'd be willing to give up Assad for the right to pay Glasnow $25M. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

If the MLB ready pitcher is named Caleb Killian, I'm completely cool with that. I'm not even sure I'd be willing to give up Assad for the right to pay Glasnow $25M. 

What what about Wesnicki?

[Tryptamine]

38 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What what about Wesnicki?

A harder decision. He's just so bad against lefties that I don't even know if you could use him a reliever now that relievers need to face 3 batters or open an inning. With that said, he's very good against righties so that if he even reached just below average against lefties he'd  have a long career. 

[imb]

glasnow seems kind of redundant considering our top prospect (gallardo) is the best pitching prospect in the minors

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

A harder decision. He's just so bad against lefties that I don't even know if you could use him a reliever now that relievers need to face 3 batters or open an inning. With that said, he's very good against righties so that if he even reached just below average against lefties he'd  have a long career. 

I don’t think it is a hard decision at all. Cubs have a lot of similar middle relief/lonf relief/spot starters. I wouldn’t think twice about moving Wesnecki. They can have Thompson too(another easily replaced pitcher)

[Tryptamine]

3 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t think it is a hard decision at all. Cubs have a lot of similar middle relief/lonf relief/spot starters. I wouldn’t think twice about moving Wesnecki. They can have Thompson too(another easily replaced pitcher)

It's not that I have high expectations for Wesneski,  it's that I don't think it's very likely Glasnow provides any excess value beyond his 25M salary.

[Rex Buckingham]

Who cares about excess value? Can he pitch 125-150 generally awesome innings? If so, sign me up

Edited November 29, 2023 by Rex Buckingham

[Stratos]

On 10/11/2023 at 2:13 AM, Tim said:

His contract was structured with a $5M payment this year and $25M next year. For Tampa, that's an AAV of $15M, but I think under this CBA the hit for the acquiring team would be a $25M AAV.

That's odd.  I wonder if they purposefully underpaid him for 2023 knowing they'd like to trade him after 2023 and try to pawn off the $25m on someone else.  That's some cheapskate accounting LOL.

[Stratos]

14 hours ago, ILMindState said:

My worry is he won't reach 100IP in 2024.  The only other time he's pitched over 100IP in his career he followed up the next season pitching only 60 innings.

Yeah.  He's averaged 75 IP since his first full season in 2018 if we take out the 2020 COVID year.  We'd have to prepare for him missing half his starts.  25 mil + prospects for him is pretty rich.

He'd be our best SP ability-wise.  It's tough if the 2024 season ends up riding on whether this guy's arm holds up.  And it would suck if he's hurt during Oct and we don't have our best SP in the playoffs.  But in 2023 we also took a bet on Bellinger, who if he had another crappy season we probably wouldn't have even sniffed the playoffs.  But if the Cubs want to pinch pennies or not commit to another SP longterm it might be the way they go.  There's some Bellinger vibes here.

Edited November 29, 2023 by Stratos

[JHBulls]

Glasnow is going to be playing for his next contract, so he will probably pull out 200+ innings in 2024. 

Edited November 29, 2023 by JHBulls