Glasnow...Now?

[Tim]

Tampa is widely expected to trade Glasnow this offseason. Obviously a great pitcher when healthy. And he's looked very good this year when he got back on the mound. I don't know what the acquisition cost would look like when it is super obvious that Tampa will want to trade him. Cubs have had reported interest in the past, so it wouldn't be a surprise to have him on their radar now.

His contract was structured with a $5M payment this year and $25M next year. For Tampa, that's an AAV of $15M, but I think under this CBA the hit for the acquiring team would be a $25M AAV. 

As a side note, we would reunite him with former Pitt prospect Taillon in the rotation. Now go get Cole!

[We Got The Whole 9]

17 minutes ago, Tim said:

Tampa is widely expected to trade Glasnow this offseason. Obviously a great pitcher when healthy. And he's looked very good this year when he got back on the mound. I don't know what the acquisition cost would look like when it is super obvious that Tampa will want to trade him. Cubs have had reported interest in the past, so it wouldn't be a surprise to have him on their radar now.

His contract was structured with a $5M payment this year and $25M next year. For Tampa, that's an AAV of $15M, but I think under this CBA the hit for the acquiring team would be a $25M AAV. 

As a side note, we would reunite him with former Pitt prospect Taillon in the rotation. Now go get Cole!

You're lucky if you get 100 innings out of him. He's not a guy I would pursue, I just don't think he'll provide enough value at 25m.

[Y2J]

7 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

You're lucky if you get 100 innings out of him. He's not a guy I would pursue, I just don't think he'll provide enough value at 25m.

Man, I knew he had a history of injuries, but I didn't realize how bad it really was until I went back to look. Yikes. 

[Cuzi]

$25M for a glorified reliever. Please no.

[Bertz]

I'd love Glasnow.  I think the durability questions are a bit overstated.  The forearm in '19 was probably a precursor to his elbow popping.  And the missed time in 21 and 22 was just a standard TJ.

Even if you are worried about the durability though, I think with Assad/Wicks/Brown/Wesneski (and Horton not that far off) we're in a position to take 120 stellar innings over 180 good innings.

[Tim]

Given the risk and the payout, I would be surprised if the cost was that high. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

18 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'd love Glasnow.  I think the durability questions are a bit overstated.  The forearm in '19 was probably a precursor to his elbow popping.  And the missed time in 21 and 22 was just a standard TJ.

Even if you are worried about the durability though, I think with Assad/Wicks/Brown/Wesneski (and Horton not that far off) we're in a position to take 120 stellar innings over 180 good innings.

He also didn't start this season til Memorial Day because of an oblique issue that he re-aggravated in rehab.  I'm not super scared off of him because of it given it's one year, but in a perfect world if you add him then you want the rotation to be deep enough that Wicks is the 6 starter, and that can become an issue with the amount of resources you need to expend to get there.

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'd love Glasnow.  I think the durability questions are a bit overstated.  The forearm in '19 was probably a precursor to his elbow popping.  And the missed time in 21 and 22 was just a standard TJ.

Even if you are worried about the durability though, I think with Assad/Wicks/Brown/Wesneski (and Horton not that far off) we're in a position to take 120 stellar innings over 180 good innings.

The guy has averaged 66 innings a season.

In no world is he worth giving up quality prospects to acquire AND pay him $25M.

Edited October 11, 2023 by Cuzi

[Brock Beauchamp]

Man, it's gonna be terrible optics if they trade Glasnow right after finalizing a stadium deal.

Which is definitely on-brand for the Rays.

[Stratos]

Cubs can acquire a good SP in FA this offseason if they want.  If they trade prospects it would make sense to acquire someone that's hard or impossible to get in FA this winter.  e.g. Sean Murphy would have been a good grab last offseason.  Glasnow isn't even worth the money, Tampa would have to eat some.

Given the deal Soto rejected from the Nationals (about 15/450) I can't see him extending before entering FA and therefore not worth trading for either.

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Cubs can acquire a good SP in FA this offseason if they want.  If they trade prospects it would make sense to acquire someone that's hard or impossible to get in FA this winter.  e.g. Sean Murphy would have been a good grab last offseason.  Glasnow isn't even worth the money, Tampa would have to eat some.

Given the deal Soto rejected from the Nationals (about 15/450) I can't see him extending before entering FA and therefore not worth trading for either.

I'll take 2024 Soto and a 2nd round comp pick easy. I could see the Cubs FO agreeing that renting him for the year could be worth it. 

[Y2J]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Man, it's gonna be terrible optics if they trade Glasnow right after finalizing a stadium deal.

Which is definitely on-brand for the Rays.

Is it, though? 

[Bertz]

Do it do it do it do it

 

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Do it do it do it do it

 

Beiber>Glasnow

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Beiber>Glasnow

Is it 2021? Bieber is looking more and more like an Arrieta. He has lost his fastball, he's losing his curveball, and he's losing his control.

Glasnow is easily the better pitcher right now.

Edited November 28, 2023 by Cuzi

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Do it do it do it do it

 

Both of these are fun names to be in on. Both have big upside with a few question marks and with only one year left on their contracts, can both offer an interesting mix of "cheaper than normal to acquire a front line arm" while also providing immediate front line help.

[ILMindState]

Unpopular opinion..... I don't want Tyler Glasnow. His arm is held together by string and duct tape.

[Tryptamine]

Bieber isn't that guy anymore. His velocity is down almost 3mph from 2020. His k/9 are more Hendricks level now. He's still a solid mid to back end pitcher, but the days of being a front of the rotation guy are gone.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Bieber isn't that guy anymore. His velocity is down almost 3mph from 2020. His k/9 are more Hendricks level now. He's still a solid mid to back end pitcher, but the days of being a front of the rotation guy are gone.

I'm not entirely sure what to make of him any more. His pitch mix got a little funky last year. A lot more pitches registering as cutters (which is not a good Shane Bieber offering) and less sliders (which remains a plus Shane Bieber offering). His fastball velocity, using Savant, averaged the same velo as in 2022, which was at 91.3 mph. In 2022, Shane was a sub 3.00 xFIP while striking out nearly a batter per 9, so he's proven he's more than capable of being a front line starter with that velocity. 

What it comes down to, for me, is that slider/cutter thing. If his slider is flattening out, if he's lost a little touch/,mechanical thing or if it's pitch mix...I think there's a lot of optimism for a one year bounceback (not sure he'd be a long term guy though, with further velocity loss possible). The Cubs also, are among the best teams at finding velocity, so maybe there's some hope they can add a mph back here or there. If it's injury that has caused the decline of the slider and it's not a fixable item, then I think you're spot on that he's not the guy any more.

Edited November 28, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

24 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

Unpopular opinion..... I don't want Tyler Glasnow. His arm is held together by string and duct tape.

I kind of love Glasnow on a one year deal. For his Lux tax, he's only $15m. It's a way for the Cubs to continue to play "woe is me" with the LT levels, but still get an arm that is capable of being an absolute terror when on the mound. Yeah, he's injury prone, but you don't need him for 7 years, you need him for one year. He threw 120 innings last year. If you get 120 innings out of him this year, well that's a 3.2 fWAR return on 21 starts. The Cubs have Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Javier Asad who can all eat some of those 10 other starts (though perhaps one goes back the other way - not Horton, of course). 

And this remains very wishful thinking, as we have to expect it's more likely we don't sign Ohtani than we do...but if you get Ohtani, then you have a ready made TORP who slots right back into the rotation next season. But that's a bonus. Like I said, wishful thinking.

Edited November 28, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[gocubs218]

I would probably choose Glasnow just because the ceiling is enormous. It’s not like Bieber has been terribly healthy the past couple years either. I suppose I would be fine with either but it just seems Glasnow is exactly who this rotation has been missing. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I kind of love Glasnow on a one year deal. For his Lux tax, he's only $15m. It's a way for the Cubs to continue to play "woe is me" with the LT levels, but still get an arm that is capable of being an absolute terror when on the mound. Yeah, he's injury prone, but you don't need him for 7 years, you need him for one year. He threw 120 innings last year. If you get 120 innings out of him this year, well that's a 3.2 fWAR return on 21 starts. The Cubs have Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Javier Asad who can all eat some of those 10 other starts (though perhaps one goes back the other way - not Horton, of course). 

And this remains very wishful thinking, as we have to expect it's more likely we don't sign Ohtani than we do...but if you get Ohtani, then you have a ready made TORP who slots right back into the rotation next season. But that's a bonus. Like I said, wishful thinking.

I'm pretty sure Glasnow's LT number as a Cub would be 25 million, a traded player's LT value is the AAV of the remaining guarantee.  It didn't used to be that way but within the last couple years it changed.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm pretty sure Glasnow's LT number as a Cub would be 25 million, a traded player's LT value is the AAV of the remaining guarantee.  It didn't used to be that way but within the last couple years it changed.

Ah horsefeathers. You're right. Stupid horsefeathers new CBA with their new rules. 

Either way, still love a 1 year Glasnow move.

[ILMindState]

36 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I kind of love Glasnow on a one year deal. For his Lux tax, he's only $15m. It's a way for the Cubs to continue to play "woe is me" with the LT levels, but still get an arm that is capable of being an absolute terror when on the mound. Yeah, he's injury prone, but you don't need him for 7 years, you need him for one year. He threw 120 innings last year. If you get 120 innings out of him this year, well that's a 3.2 fWAR return on 21 starts. The Cubs have Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Javier Asad who can all eat some of those 10 other starts (though perhaps one goes back the other way - not Horton, of course). 

And this remains very wishful thinking, as we have to expect it's more likely we don't sign Ohtani than we do...but if you get Ohtani, then you have a ready made TORP who slots right back into the rotation next season. But that's a bonus. Like I said, wishful thinking.

My worry is he won't reach 100IP in 2024.  The only other time he's pitched over 100IP in his career he followed up the next season pitching only 60 innings.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

My worry is he won't reach 100IP in 2024.  The only other time he's pitched over 100IP in his career he followed up the next season pitching only 60 innings.

Which very well could happen. It's going to be a risk a team takes. At the same time, it likely takes the cost of acquisition down, too.