Glasnow...Now?

[Rcal10]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would argue even if he is way down the road on one of them this is a bad look. The pathway for the Cubs in 2024 to be really good is likely going to be "pitching-pitching-pitching". Replacing Stroman with any of those three is probably closer to a push than it is anything of a real upgrade (looking at the way Stroman pitched when healthy. I'm not really blaming him on the rib injury) talent wise. Get two good pitchers. Let's make it a dominant ass rotation.

My fear is that the Cubs are more interested in Shane Bieber over that of Tyler Glasnow, which is my biggest issue right now with the team. Bieber is a fine pitcher, but I think the reason you'd be more interested in Bieber is because "he gets ground balls which our defense can make better" and "he'd be nominally cheaper to acquire" (per Steve Anderson of MLBTR, he said the price on Bieber would be less). I get it, taking Bieber, putting him with an elite middle infield defense can squeeze extra value out of him. But why not just get the better pitcher to begin with? Use your resources. Big a big market team. Absorb a $25m contract. Assume the injury risk. Get the better player, damnit. 

Maybe I'm wrong on that last paragraph, and I'll accept that I don't know. But damn, that would really make me mad. That's small-market mentality. 

Going Bieber over Glasnow could also hint to them going after Chapman. What better for ground ball pitchers than 3 gold glove winners in the infield. And I don’t really like this scenario, but it is possible. Maybe instead of leaving spots open for the young talent, they will the spots with major league talent via trades of the assets. Maybe sign Chapman and trade for Bieber and Naylor. Fills SP, 1st and 3rd. Still need another pitcher, IMO,(Imanaga or Montgomery) and a pen arm. Could also use another bat unless they are happy with defense first in center. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Going Bieber over Glasnow could also hint to them going after Chapman. What better for ground ball pitchers than 3 gold glove winners in the infield. And I don’t really like this scenario, but it is possible. Maybe instead of leaving spots open for the young talent, they will the spots with major league talent via trades of the assets. Maybe sign Chapman and trade for Bieber and Naylor. Fills SP, 1st and 3rd. Still need another pitcher, IMO,(Imanaga or Montgomery) and a pen arm. Could also use another bat unless they are happy with defense first in center. 

I'll lead the damn riot if that's the Cubs plan.

[ILMindState]

I hope I'm wrong here but I think the only way they go after Chapman is if his market completely collapses.  Shoot they might just be waiting things out to do the same thing with Bellinger.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I alluded to something similar in the other thread, but the part of Jed's approach to team-building I like the least has been over-indexing on certain pitching traits that end up with him priced out on the types of guys they're still missing to really headline a team that can be dangerous in the postseason.  Maybe I just lack vision, and he's gonna give up less for Bieber and extend him(a pre-FA extension has at least been floated in the media), and then Chapman's market is never gonna materialize and they'll get him for like 3/60 or whatever and PCA comes up and no batted ball ever finds grass again.  But the road to an offseason I'm really happy with is pretty narrow now, and probably relies on at least one or maybe two uncommon things happening.

I'll flip a table if the Cubs do that. That probably puts out a pretty decent W-L product, but it also puts out a team that you know just can't compete with the major teams in the playoffs. It's an awesome way to out-pythag your market. To really maximize some decent, but not elite players. That's a team I think the Brewers build and pull 89 wins, with a 2nd round exit because there's no way that offense can hit against a murders' row of stuff, especially when teams shorten the rotation and lengthen the bullpen. 

I'll live with the Cubs not getting Ohani or Yamamoto. But damn, I want this team to wake up and remember they're the Chicago Cubs.

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

Going Bieber over Glasnow could also hint to them going after Chapman. What better for ground ball pitchers than 3 gold glove winners in the infield. And I don’t really like this scenario, but it is possible. Maybe instead of leaving spots open for the young talent, they will the spots with major league talent via trades of the assets. Maybe sign Chapman and trade for Bieber and Naylor. Fills SP, 1st and 3rd. Still need another pitcher, IMO,(Imanaga or Montgomery) and a pen arm. Could also use another bat unless they are happy with defense first in center. 

Ugh. I didn't want Chapman and Bieber was pretty far down my list of SP that I was hoping they would add, but I'm at the point of I would rather them do that then miss on everyone I guess. I have been in the corner of adding two SP all along, so Bieber plus a Monty/Imanaga would be nice. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

 I'll live with the Cubs not getting Ohani or Yamamoto. But damn, I want this team to wake up and remember they're the Chicago Cubs.

Well, you're going to need new owners for that to happen. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, NorthsideAvenger said:

Well, you're going to need new owners for that to happen. 

I think Tom Ricketts sucks. But the Levine has suggested the Cubs may run a $240-$250m payroll. That's not just an ownership issue. That's a Jed issue as well.

[LBiittner]

Reported Chapman already turned down 5 for 100m from toronto. We wont get discount. lets hope he calls them back.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think Tom Ricketts sucks. But the Levine has suggested the Cubs may run a $240-$250m payroll. That's not just an ownership issue. That's a Jed issue as well.

They are responsible for Jed, too. They put him in this position because they know how he operates. They are in simpatico. 

[NorthsideAvenger]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think Tom Ricketts sucks. But the Levine has suggested the Cubs may run a $240-$250m payroll. That's not just an ownership issue. That's a Jed issue as well.

May being the key word. Unfortunately, Jed is going to be the reason the Cubs cannot get over the hump.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

They are responsible for Jed, too. They put him in this position because they know how he operates. They are in simpatico. 

Oh, I'm not absolving. I am captain of the "Tom Ricketts Sucks" fan club. But I don't think Jed Hoyer was hired because he has a small market mentality in the way I think some believe. That he was hired because he's risk adverse. I think he was hired to continue to the winning ways Theo Epstein had shown, but presented a plan that was more sustainable and Ricketts bought it hook line and sinker. Ricketts blows. But I'm starting to come around more and more to an idea that the way the team is being built is in many ways a Hoyer issue just as much as a Ricketts issue.

[ILMindState]

Setting myself up to be mad that the Cubs passed not because of the cost of prospects but because they wanted money back in the deal.

[17 Seconds]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I didn't really want him for the Cubs, so I'm not that broken up about it. 

 

i think he makes more sense for a team like the dodgers that can baby him in the regular season and just try to get him healthy for the playoffs. they don't need to worry about winning regular season games. the cubs do.

[Bertz]

48 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would argue even if he is way down the road on one of them this is a bad look. The pathway for the Cubs in 2024 to be really good is likely going to be "pitching-pitching-pitching". Replacing Stroman with any of those three is probably closer to a push than it is anything of a real upgrade (looking at the way Stroman pitched when healthy. I'm not really blaming him on the rib injury) talent wise. Get two good pitchers. Let's make it a dominant ass rotation.

My fear is that the Cubs are more interested in Shane Bieber over that of Tyler Glasnow, which is my biggest issue right now with the team. Bieber is a fine pitcher, but I think the reason you'd be more interested in Bieber is because "he gets ground balls which our defense can make better" and "he'd be nominally cheaper to acquire" (per Steve Anderson of MLBTR, he said the price on Bieber would be less). I get it, taking Bieber, putting him with an elite middle infield defense can squeeze extra value out of him. But why not just get the better pitcher to begin with? Use your resources. Big a big market team. Absorb a $25m contract. Assume the injury risk. Get the better player, damnit. 

Maybe I'm wrong on that last paragraph, and I'll accept that I don't know. But damn, that would really make me mad. That's small-market mentality. 

Our best guess is that Jed has $70Mish to spend, so assuming that's correct I don't think putting $45-50M into the rotation is a good idea.  So *if* Jed's concurrently doing another $20M+ deal on a multi-year free agent then I do get it Bieber does make more sense.  Because that extra $15M is the the difference between something like this:

Glasnow/Imanaga/Hoskins/Solano/Suter

vs. this

Bieber/Imanaga/Hoskins/Polanco/Stephenson

So there are still reasonable scenarios where it just doesn't make sense to go for Glasnow.  But like TT said the number of iterations of this offseason that make me happy are dwindling quickly.  In my mind Glasnow was very much the lynchpin to most of the successful non-Ohtani offseasons.  

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Our best guess is that Jed has $70Mish to spend, so assuming that's correct I don't think putting $45-50M into the rotation is a good idea.  So *if* Jed's concurrently doing another $20M+ deal on a multi-year free agent then I do get it Bieber does make more sense.  Because that extra $15M is the the difference between something like this:

Glasnow/Imanaga/Hoskins/Solano/Suter

vs. this

Bieber/Imanaga/Hoskins/Polanco/Stephenson

So there are still reasonable scenarios where it just doesn't make sense to go for Glasnow.  But like TT said the number of iterations of this offseason that make me happy are dwindling quickly.  In my mind Glasnow was very much the lynchpin to most of the successful non-Ohtani offseasons.  

Makes sense if they have to stop at $70M. But why do they have to stop at that number? Why do they have to be under the LT? 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Our best guess is that Jed has $70Mish to spend, so assuming that's correct I don't think putting $45-50M into the rotation is a good idea.  So *if* Jed's concurrently doing another $20M+ deal on a multi-year free agent then I do get it Bieber does make more sense.  Because that extra $15M is the the difference between something like this:

Glasnow/Imanaga/Hoskins/Solano/Suter

vs. this

Bieber/Imanaga/Hoskins/Polanco/Stephenson

So there are still reasonable scenarios where it just doesn't make sense to go for Glasnow.  But like TT said the number of iterations of this offseason that make me happy are dwindling quickly.  In my mind Glasnow was very much the lynchpin to most of the successful non-Ohtani offseasons.  

Frankly, I'd still pump the money there, myself, if this is going to be the offseason. The Cubs have essentially backed themselves in a corner when it comes to acquiring an impact bat at this stage and I don't have any aspirations right now that the Cubs will pursuit Soto with the type of vigor they should next year, either. At that point, I'd rather the Cubs have gone with a Glasnow + another SP (a trade, or an Imanaga) and then looked to acquire Hoskins + another bat (using Wicks? Just spitballing, not necessarily giving specific names or targets). Just go all in on the pitching and make a dominant-ass rotation. 

But in the end, I agree with the end point that we're getting to a point where this offseason is getting hard to parse out how the Cubs end up having a very successful offseason if they're going to miss here. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Makes sense if they have to stop at $70M. But why do they have to stop at that number? Why do they have to be under the LT? 

70 million in AAV added is right before the second LT threshold, 20 million over the LT.

[Tryptamine]

I'll believe they're going to roll with a 240-250M payroll when I see it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I'll believe they're going to roll with a 240-250M payroll when I see it.

without looking, what do you think their payroll was last year

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

without looking, what do you think their payroll was last year

210ish I thought

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

210ish I thought

LT payroll(which is the payroll we mean when we talk about going to 240-250) was 227.7 million per Fangraphs, 5 mil under the LT line.  This includes Candelario, though between salary already paid and money kicked in he moved the needle less than 1 million.

[SouthSideRyan]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Going Bieber over Glasnow could also hint to them going after Chapman. What better for ground ball pitchers than 3 gold glove winners in the infield. And I don’t really like this scenario, but it is possible. Maybe instead of leaving spots open for the young talent, they will the spots with major league talent via trades of the assets. Maybe sign Chapman and trade for Bieber and Naylor. Fills SP, 1st and 3rd. Still need another pitcher, IMO,(Imanaga or Montgomery) and a pen arm. Could also use another bat unless they are happy with defense first in center. 

Jed decided he likes guys who can catch the ball.

[LBiittner]

I think all our speculation here has been for naught.

Instead of getting creative with plans on how to improve the roster to be competitive for a chance to see post season ticket sales at Wrigley, We should extract ideas on how to make the roster spaces less expensive for Mr Ricketts.

An immediate thought I had would be sending one of our better top 10 prospects to the Yankees for an exchange of D J Lemahieu. But only if the Yankees pickup a majority of DJ's $$$. He could play either 1st or 3rd.

Another choice Jed might like could be Chris Taylor. If the Dodgers could defer some of his $  for the cubs until around 2040? This would make Jed look better in Tom's eyes.

These simple 2 player acquisitions would in noway block any prospects the cubs draft in the next 6 or 7 years because they are older than dirt

[gflore34]

9 minutes ago, SouthSideRyan said:

Jed decided he likes guys who can catch the ball.

Defense is way cheaper than offense, just like soft tossing sinker slider pitchers are cheaper than those with velocity, it's always about spending responsibly.

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, gflore34 said:

Hey, now, they signed Counsell, didn't they?  Come to Wrigley Field and watch him manage, see him sit in the dugout, chew some gum, drink some water.

I wonder if Counsell can play 3B.